Company Presentation
Last update – 2015 Q1 Results
Company Presentation CERVED INFORMATION SOLUTIONS S.p.A. Last update - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Company Presentation CERVED INFORMATION SOLUTIONS S.p.A. Last update 2015 Q1 Results Disclaimer This presentation and any materials distributed in connection herewith (together, the Presentation) do not constitute or form a part of, and
Last update – 2015 Q1 Results
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This presentation and any materials distributed in connection herewith (together, the “Presentation”) do not constitute or form a part of, and should not be construed as, an offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to purchase
relied upon in connection with, or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this Presentation has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. None of Cerved Information Solutions S.p.A., its subsidiaries or any of their respective employees, advisers, representatives or affiliates shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or
date of this Presentation and is subject to change without notice. Statements made in this Presentation may include forward-looking statements. These statements may be identified by the fact that they use words such as “anticipate”, “estimate”, “should”, “expect”, “guidance”, “project”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, and/or other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with, among other things, any discussion of results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies or developments in the industry in which we operate. Such statements are based on management’s current intentions, expectations or beliefs and involve inherent risks, assumptions and uncertainties, including factors that could delay, divert or change any of
taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. Actual outcomes, results and other future events may differ materially from those expressed or implied by the statements contained herein. Such differences may adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein and may result from, among other things, changes in economic, business, competitive, technological, strategic or regulatory factors and
amend any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this Presentation. It should be noted that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Please also note that interim results are not necessarily indicative of full-year results.
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Business Review on FY 2014 Results
Overview
Investment Case
Q1’2015 Results
Appendices
Source: PwC 1) No. 1 player In the non-captive market, considering pro-forma revenues in 2013 which include Recus and Tarida
2% 42% Corporates
290 (+3.6%)
Business Information
627 (+3.9%) 721 (+8.5%)
Cerved
Position and Market Share in 2013 359 (-4.3%)
4.2% 42.7% 7.3%1) Financial Institutions
Consumer 321 Corporates 305
€14,7m 4% of Group (+18.4% CAGR) €142.7m 43% of Group (+8.5% CAGR) €53,3m 16% of Group (+63.7% CAGR) €122,0m 37% of Group (-3.3% CAGR)
No.1
No.1
Market
2013 Data (€m) (CAGR 11-13)
Cerved
2014 Revenues (CAGR 11-14)
NPLs 502 Corporate receivables 219
Credit Information Credit Management Marketing Solutions
Business Information 120 Rating & Analytics 39 Real Estate 97 Consumer Information 103 3
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Consistent Growth EBITDA Growth High Cash Flows
113 119 125 132 30 31 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m) EBITDA – Capex (€m) 138 145 152 160 38 39 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 267 291 313 331 79 83 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15
+4.7%/ (0.7)% +7.4% / +3.9% % / % Total Growth % / Organic Growth %
Consistent Revenue, EBITDA and Cash Flow growth despite macroeconomic conditions
Note: 2011 and 2012 EBITDA adjusted for shareholder’s fees and 2011 adjusted to review accounting policy related to the database acquisition costs
+5.1% / +3.8% +3.6%/ +1.3% +5.2% +3.9%
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Mission-critical products and services through the cycle Undisputed market leadership Significant competitive advantages High revenue visibility Fundamental sector growth Untapped potential within the Italian market Cerved specific organic growth initiatives M&A Best-in-class EBITDA margins Cash conversion
Growth
Cash flow
Resiliency
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Credit Information - Consolidate position in financial institutions Credit Information and Marketing Services - Continue to exploit the underpenetrated corporate market Exploit opportunities in adjacent markets Credit Management - Grow AUM and keep focused on collection Continue to invest in new product development and innovation Add-on opportunities in Italy and abroad
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Business Review on FY 2014 Results
Q1’2015 Results
Investment Case
Appendices
Overview
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Revenues (€m) and Revenue growth (%)
290,6 313,5 331,3 79,3 83,0 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15
Revenue Bridge (Q1’2014 – Q1’2015) – (€m)
79,3 83,0 0,8 (0,8) 3,8 0,1 (0,1)
Revenues Q1'2014 CI - Financial Institutions CI - Corporates Credit Management Marketing Solutions Other & Conso clearing Revenues Q1'2015
Credit Information
+7.9% / +5.7% +5.7% / +3.8% +4.7% / (0.7)%
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EBITDA (1) (€m) and EBITDA margin (%)
38,1 39,4 0,8 0,6 (0,0)
EBITDA Q1'2014 Credit Information Credit Management Marketing Solutions EBITDA Q1'2015
EBITDA Bridge (Q1’2014 – Q1’2015) – (€m)
144,7 151,5 160,1 38,1 39,4 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 48.3% 49.8% 48.3%
(1) FY 2012 EBITDA is adjusted for Shareholder Fees;
+4.7% / +4.6% +5.6/ +4.5% % / % Total Growth % / Organic Growth % +3.6% / +1.3%
48.0% 47.5%
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Credit Information Credit Management Marketing Solutions
127,4 126,3 122,0 30,3 31,1 128,8 138,2 142,7 36,0 35,2 256,2 264,5 264,7 66,4 66,3 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15
Revenue EBITDA
136,8 139,3 142,1 35,2 36,0 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 25,0 36,6 53,3 10,3 14,1 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 4,4 7,6 11,2 1,8 2,4 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 9,9 12,8 14,7 2,8 2,9 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 3,5 4,7 6,8 1,0 1,0 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15
35.6% 36.5% 45.9% 20.7% 21.0% 53.4% 52.7% 53.7% 4.8%
Corp.
% YoY Growth %
21.9%
36.8%
45.9% 1.6%
(0.1)%
1.9%
2.2% 17.6% (2.2)%
38.5%
34.2%
59.3%
% EBITDA margin % % CAGR
37.3% 34.8% 17.6% 17.2% 53.0% 54.2%
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Summary Profit and Loss (€m)
€m 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 Total Revenues 313,5 331,3 79,3 83,0 % growth (YoY) 7,9% 5,7% 10,0% 4,7% EBITDA 151,5 160,1 38,1 39,4 % Revenues 48,3% 48,3% 48,0% 47,5% Depreciation & Amortization (23,3) (25,1) (5,8) (7,2) EBITA 128,2 135,0 32,3 32,2 PPA Amortization (39,4) (42,9) (10,7) (10,8) Non recurring income and expenses (7,4) (4,5) (0,5) (1,0) EBIT 81,4 87,6 21,1 20,3 Financial income 0,8 1,1 0,1 0,2 Financial expenses - non recurring
(59,6) (54,6) (14,9) (10,7) PBT 22,6 24,0 6,4 9,9 Income tax expenses (14,7) (12,0) (4,9) (3,8) Reported Net Income 8,0 12,0 1,5 6,1 Adjusted Net Income 43,0 55,0 9,8 14,7
1,1 1,4 0,3 0,2
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Net Working Capital (€m) 119,5 151,5 135,3 145,3 151,1 140,9 149,8 (25,4) (30,1) (31,8) (32,4) (33,8) (28,6) (29,1) (82,5) (81,9) (73,3) (73,3) (73,1) (66,9) (66,9) 11,6 40,8 31,0 31,0 45,3 46,6 54,9 2012 2013 2014 Ex-M&A 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 Ex-M&A Q1'15
Inventories Trade receivables Trade payables Deferred revenues Net Working Capital 4.0% 13.0% NWC as % of Revenues % 11.7%2) 14.2%1) 14.1% 9.5%1) 15.9%2)
(1) Data excludes Recus and RLValue (2) NWC/Revenues based on Revenues of Recus and RL Value for the last 12 months
Operating Cash Flow (€m)
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(1) Cash change in Net Working Capital exludes non recurring items
€m 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 EBITDA 151,5 160,1 38,1 39,4 Net Capex (26,6) (28,2) (7,8) (8,0) EBITDA-Capex 125,0 131,9 30,2 31,4 as % of EBITDA 82% 82% 79% 80% Cash change in Net Working Capital(1) (24,7) 8,2 (7,1) (13,5) Change in other assets / liabilities 7,3 (13,9) (3,7) 1,3 Operating Cash Flow 107,5 126,2 19,5 19,2
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Net Financial Indebtedness (€m)
€m 2013 H1'14 2014 Q1'15 Bonds 780,0 530,0 530,0 530,0 Other financial debt 0,6 0,6 4,0 1,4 Accrued Interests 20,6 17,8 17,3 8,5 Gross Debt 801,1 548,4 551,3 539,9 Cash (50,3) (17,1) (46,1) (42,1) Capitalized financing fees (28,6) (19,1) (17,6) (16,9) IFRS Net Debt 722,2 512,1 487,6 480,9 Net Debt/ LTM EBITDA 4,8x 3,3x 3,0x 2,9x
25,5 21,5 17,5 13,5 9,6 9,6 9,6 9,6 4,8 4,8 4,8 4,8 29,6 25,7 21,7 17,8 13,8 13,8 13,8 13,8 9,2 9,2 9,2 9,2 4,6 20 40 60 jan-15 apr-15 jul-15
jan-16 apr-16 jul-16
jan-17 apr-17 jul-17
jan-18
Senior Subordinated Senior Secured
Bond Redemption Cost Evolution (€m)
FY 2015
including Creval Partnership for 3 quarters
Leverage
Dividends
Organic Growth
EBITDA Leverage & Dividends
FY 2014 Reported
FY 2014 Proforma
Including Recus & RLValue
Maximize distribution of available cash, to the extent permitted by our financial condition and future investment opportunities, as per board’s programmatic resolution
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10,8% 8,6% 8,1% 11,3% 12,4% 12,5% Q4
Q4 0,0% Q4 0,0%
50 100 150 200
5.3% 13.5% 7.2%
Key Economic Indicators Cerved Proprietary Data Italian unemployment Italian GDP New lending
% of companies paying over 60 days late versus contractual terms Number of proceedings (seasonally adjusted) and growth rates versus same quarter of previous year
2015
GDP finally expected to grow, after 3 very difficult years in which there were 9 quarters with negative GDP growth
Positive
signs from new lending volumes: +13% in Q1’15 after a +12% in Q4‘14 (albeit largely from TLTRO)
Same data as in FY
2014 presentation
This
data confirms improvement in key variables such as late paying companies and bankruptcy rates
Growth
in NPLs continues at a lower pace, as expected by many sources
Growth rate compared to the previous quarter New lending volumes in € billions (quarterly)
Key highlights Late paying companies Bankruptcies NPLs Key highlights
Unemployment as % of total working population
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
3,0% 3,5% 3,7% 2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Default rate on outstanding loans (Q3 and Q4 2014 are forecasts; Cerved estimates
Source: ISTAT/OECD Source: ISTAT Source: Bank of Italy Source: Osservatorio Cerved Source: Osservatorio Cerved Source: Osservatorio Cerved, Bank of Italy
2008 – 2010 – 2012 – Q1’15
YoY -0.4% YoY -1.7% YoY -2.8%
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Q1’2015 Results
Business Review on FY 2014 Results
Investment Case
Appendices
Overview
Operational and Strategic Update for 2014 and Key Actions for 2015
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Business Finance M&A and IR Credit Information - Corporate Credit Information – Financial Institutions Credit Management Marketing Solutions EBITDA & Profitability Financial Reporting, Working Capital and Capital Structure Mergers & Acquisitions Investor Relations
Revenue growth of 3.3% in 2014 impacted by weak economy, integration of Experian Data Services (EDS) and the launch of Cerved’s new ERP system Drivers of consumption(1) in 2014 were positive and led to 3.3% growth vs 2013: churn declined vs 2013, new clients more than offset churn, and renewals were positive Numerous new products are being launched or are in the pipeline Launched a strategic project to improve sales force efficiency and effectiveness
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95 102 108 124 129 138 143 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1) Consumption of points in 2014 compared to 2013 for business information products by c. 22k corporate clients covered by the field sales network
Investing in the business to improve performance in the medium term
Lince Honyvem EDS
Consumption of Business Information Points 2014 vs 2013 (1) Corporate Revenues 2008-2014 (€m) 2)
Business Finance M&A and IR Lost Clients Existing Clients New Clients Y-o-Y Consumption (4.1%) 2.0% 5.4% 3.3%
2) 2011 proforma for Honyvem
Real Estate Rating & Analytics Business Information
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Tough year in 2014 with Revenues declining 3.4% due to large contract renewals coupled with lower new bank lending Lower pressure expected in 2015 with absence of large business information contract renegotiations with large banks, together with improved new bank lending prospects Banche Popolari consolidation impact should be limited and diluted over time; a consolidation in the Italian banking system will occur in the medium to long term
682 572 517 488 463 401 395
+6% (16%) (10%) (6%) (5%) (13%) (2%) (20%) (15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1) Source: Bank of Italy
After a tough 2014 the environment appears less challenging in 2015
CI Financial Institutions – Breakdown 2014 Bank New Lending from 2008 (€bn) 1)
Business Finance
YoY change (%)
M&A and IR
Banks & Investors Utilities & Financials Corporates Legal Services Re- marketing
2014 was another record year with Revenues growing 46% and EBITDA 47% Cerved Credit Management is now the #1 independent player in Italy covering: All credit types: personal/corporate, secured/unsecured, large/small All client types: corporates, utilities, financial companies, banks and funds Full value chain: caring, out-of-court settlement, legal services and re-marketing Launched strategic project to focus on performance and integration of operations
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10,3 7,8 1,8 1,3 0,5 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
Impressive growth and diversification from 2011 to 2014 with Revenue CAGR of 64%
Credit Management Revenue Breakdown AuM Evolution (€bn)
NPLs and Problematic Credits Business Finance M&A and IR
Closed strategic partnership with Creval to manage their NPL portfolio on April 1st 2015 Price of €21.7m reflects an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.5x on expected 2015 EBITDA of €3.9m Credit Management sector growth fundamentals remain solid with banks due to increase pace of NPL disposals or outsourcing
Potential in the market to increase sale and/or outsourcing of bank portfolios
Business Map Evolution of NPL Financial Institutions – Banks (€bn)
59 78 107 125 156 183 201 216 227 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
Business Finance
Source: Prometeia
7% 28%
M&A and IR
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Ad-Hoc Projects Database Industrial and Competitor Analysis Marketing Platforms
2014 was a record year in terms of Revenue and EBITDA growth of 15% and 45% resp. thanks to revamp of product offering and new go-to-market approach 2015 focus on launching new products and consolidating results to exploit cross-selling
Searching M&A opportunities although there are few targets considering market fragmentation and stringent regulation regarding information on private individuals
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8,9 9,9 12,8 14,7 3,1 3,5 4,7 6,8
2011 2012 2013 2014
Continue to exploit synergies with Corporates on database, clients and sales force
Breakdown of 2014 Revenues Revenues and EBITDA (€m)
Business Finance M&A and IR
Labor Expenses Information Services Sales Agents Accruals & Bad Debt Other Costs
Margin improvements in 2014 demonstrated the
Improvement in Credit Information due to careful cost management and impact of Experian deal Further scope to optimise the cost base and increase efficiency within the group
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53,9% 53,4% 52,7% 53,7% 2011 2012 2013 2014 17,0% 17,6% 20,7% 21,0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 34,5% 35,6% 36,5% 45,9% 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cerved enjoys operating leverage in each of its three divisions
Credit Information EBITDA margins Credit Management EBITDA margins Marketing Solutions EBITDA margins
Business Finance
1) Note: financials related to Cerved Group SpA
Operating Expenses 2014 1)
M&A and IR
Busy 2015 for the Financial Division with 3 key projects in place Significant investment to improve and integrate management information systems of acquired companies Launched project to optimise Working Capital and in particular Trade Receivables with objective of improving cash inflows Albeit premature, we are monitoring the opportunity to refinance the €530m of
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Bond Redemption Cost Evolution (€m)
25,5 21,5 17,5 13,5 9,6 9,6 9,6 9,6 4,8 4,8 4,8 4,8 29,6 25,7 21,7 17,8 13,8 13,8 13,8 13,8 9,2 9,2 9,2 9,2 4,6 20 40 60 jan-15 apr-15 jul-15
jan-16 apr-16 jul-16
jan-17 apr-17 jul-17
jan-18
Senior Subordinated Senior Secured
Business Finance M&A and IR
2014 was a very busy year with 3 closed deals and 1 signed deal Pipeline remains interesting and focused on Italy in current and adjacent sectors. Foreign M&A only at the monitoring phase Seeking adjacencies in which to exploit existing competitive strengths – along the lines
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Recus SpA 1) 80% 18.8m 15.9m 3.5m RLValue Srl 1) 100% 1.4m 1.7m 0.4m SpazioDati Srl 33% 1.3m n.a. n.a. Creval Partnership 2) 100% 21.7m
1) Actual Revenues and EBITDA for the 12m period ending December 2014 2) Deal closed in April 1 2015; Expected EBITDA for the 12m period ending December 2015
Strategy focused on safe, bolt-on acquisitions in core and adjacent markets in Italy
Pipeline 2015
Company Stake Investment Revenues EBITDA
Deal Closed 2014 & Creval Portfolio Partnership (2015)
CI BI CM Adj. MS Foreign Company Stake Investment
Advanced Preliminary Status
More Less Effort M&A Effort and Status Business Finance M&A and IR
Date Event Location May 13-14 Business Services Conference (JPM) London Jun 10-11 Business Services Conference (Unicredit) Milan Jun 22-23 Business Services Conference (GS) London Jun 25 Equity Conference (Mediobanca) Milan Sep 16 Euro Services Conference (UBS) London Oct 2 Italian Conference (JPM) Milan Nov 18 Business Services Conference (DB) London Dec 1 Pennyhill Equities (Berenberg) London
IR activity focussed on “virtuous circle” involving analyst coverage, investor meetings and trading volumes 2015 envisages a rich agenda in terms of conferences and non-deal roadshows in Europe and North America Corporate website improved to include numerous new features as per best practice
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120 141 206 182 207 304 176
Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Medium term objective is to prepare Cerved to be a Public Company
Conferences Scheduled for 2015 1) Average Daily Volumes (NOSH k) 2)
1) Tentative dates and events subject to change 2) Excluding 2, 5 and 6 January 2015
Business Finance M&A and IR
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Q1’2015 Results
Investment Case
Business Review on FY 2014 Results
Appendices
Overview
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Mission-critical for the majority of corporates At the core of the Italian economy supporting c.€1.5trn credit positions
700 1.455 390 365
Stock of monitored lending New lending Commercial credit Total credit supported by Cerved Credit positions supported by Cerved Information (€bn)
Monitoring
Covering the full spectrum of the credit value chain
Recovery Underwriting Origination
c.700 c.31.200 Credit Information client base
Financial insitutions Corporates
Credit management Credit Information Marketing solutions Credit management Decision analytics and Monitoring Credit limit sizing
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Source: PwC 1) No. 1 player In the non-captive market, considering pro-forma revenues in 2013 which include Recus and Tarida
2% 42% Corporates
290 (+3.6%)
Business Information
627 (+3.9%) 721 (+8.5%)
Cerved
Position and Market Share in 2013 359 (-4.3%)
4.2% 42.7% 7.3%1) Financial Institutions
Consumer 321 Corporates 305
€14,7m 4% of Group (+18.4% CAGR) €142.7m 43% of Group (+8.5% CAGR) €53,3m 16% of Group (+63.7% CAGR) €122,0m 37% of Group (-3.3% CAGR)
No.1
No.1
Market
2013 Data (€m) (CAGR 11-13)
Cerved
2014 Revenues (CAGR 11-14)
NPLs 502 Corporate receivables 219
Credit Information Credit Management Marketing Solutions
Business Information 120 Rating & Analytics 39 Real Estate 97 Consumer Information 103
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Data sourcing Data processing Products Sales
Investment of c.€40m
p.a.
16mm companies
and 20mm company- related individuals for >40 years
Mix of proprietary,
unofficial and official information making it difficult to replicate
More than 450 FTEs
who process, analyse and check the data
More than 200 FTEs in
the IT department: almost all of the products are online
Broadest product
range for corporates and financial institutions: c.30 families and c.180 individual products
More than 30 FTEs in
the marketing department
National sales network
− More than 300 FTEs for corporates − Around 45 FTEs for financial institutions
Cerved revenue Breakdown 2014
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RMS 2013 (1) Cerved CAGR 11-14 Cerved CAGR 11-13 Market CAGR 11-13
Source: Company information, PwC (1) Relative Market Share: Cerved’s revenue divided by revenue of No. 2 market player
Credit Information
1.6x 2.4% 3.6% (1.0%)
€649m
Credit Information 80%
Market size and Cerved’s market share in Credit Information 2014
41% market share
Crif Infocamere Ribes Assicom Visura REAG 4 Prometeia Wise 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 2,00 EBITDA Margin % Relative Market Share in Credit Information (RMS)(1)
33
Sources: Company information, AIDA, PwC Estimates (1) RMS = Competitor revenue / Cerved’s revenue; except for Cerved’s RMS which is defined as Cerved’s revenue divided by the revenue of the No. 2 market player
Scale vs. profitability – Cerved vs. competitors 2013A
A bubble of this size represents €30 million in revenue
29,7% 34,6% 35,1% 48,3%
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EBITDA margin 2014A Operating cash flow margin 2014A(1)
Source: Company information for Cerved and comparables (1) Defined as (adj. EBITDA – Capex)/Revenue (2) LTM as of September 2014
26,5% 31,0% 27,0% 39,9%
(2) (2)
255 265 270 275 290 123 126 123 119 120 123 134 118 98 97 41 44 41 40 39 123 115 110 102 103
665 684 662 634 649
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Credit Information Market (€m)
(6,1)% (1,0)% (7,4)% (1,0)% 2,6%
(0.6)%
Source: IMF, AIFI (Associazione Italiana Private Equity e Venture Capital), AIDA, Financial Reports, PwC Estimates
Consumer Information Banks Rating & Scoring Banks Real Estate Banks Business Information Banks Business Information Corporate
152 164 180 192 219 256 276 311 323 359 100 107 121 133 142
508 547 612 648 721
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
+9.1%
10.1% 8.0% 8.1%
Bank NPLs Consumer Finance NPLs Corporate NPLs CAGR ‘09-’13 CAGR ‘09-’13
Credit Management Market (€m)
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Increasing need for credit checks Increasing receivable volumes Increasing new lending and stock of loans Increasing economic activity Higher scrutiny and monitoring Increasing need for more frequent checks and credit information
Increasing counterparty risk Corporates Financial institutions Corporates Financial institutions
Resiliency Cash flow Growth
Increasing SME Credit Information penetration expected to continue
1.185 510 437 395 394
Large SME market
Thousands of SMEs (10-250 FTEs) 2013A
Long enforcement times
Average days to enforce a contract 2014A
34% 34% 35% 35% 37% 38% 40% 41% 43% 44% 08A 09A 10A 11A 12A 13E 14E 15E 16E 17E
(1) For companies with more than €1mm in revenue (2) For Italy, penetration represents the weighted average of: 25/35% penetration for ~170k small companies (10-49 FTEs); 60/70% penetration for ~20k medium companies (50-200 FTEs); 70/80% penetration for ~4k large companies (>200 FTEs)
Credit Information penetration 2012A (%) Credit Information penetration 2008A-17E(%)
37
Italian SMEs usage of Credit Information underpenetrated vs. UK
Resiliency Cash flow Growth
78%(1) 37%(2)
Source: World Bank Source: Annual Report of European SMEs 2014 – European Commission (data on 2013)
191 186 158 123 392
Source: Eurostat, Cerved Group, Interviews to industry experts Source: Eurostat, Cerved Group, Interviews to industry experts
227 216 201 183 156 125 107 78 59 2017E 2016E 2015E 2014E 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
Market NPLs
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12,4 10,3 7,8 1,8 1,3 0,5 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
Cerved NPLs
Captive portfolio purchased prior to 2009 €0.8bn SPV corporate /SME €4.3bn on 3 SPVs €1.9bn consumer finance €0.9bn SPV consumer loan
Market Growth
Resiliency Cash flow Growth
(1)1) Excludes Finservice which operates on the collection of NPLs for corporates. (2)2) As of April 1st, 2015
25.4% 7.4% CAGR 2009A–14E: CAGR 2014E–17E:
€0.5bn various banks contracts €2.1bn from Creval agreement
Cerved Growth
Pre-crisis level of €40-50bn Current level of €183bn, expected to increase to €227bn by 2017 #1 Independent Player Growth from i) NPL growth and ii) increased outsourcing/NPLs disposals acted by banks
(1)Source: Prometeia Source: Company information
Market NPLS Cerved NPLs
Increasing NPL volumes Low liquidity, low collections, higher
fees
Decreasing NPL prices, outsourcing
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Negative economic cycle Opportunistically intake massive portfolios Maximize collections Positive economic cycle
Increasing liquidity Refinancing options for debt holders Increasing collections
Resiliency Cash flow Growth
Illustrative impact of economic cycle
NPL stock Collection rates Time
Consolidation of core markets
Deal Revenue
€28mm Dec 2003 €6mm Dec 2007 €67mm Dec 2008 €16mm Dec 2011 €10mm Mar 2013 n.m. Start-up €1mm Dec 2010
Data Services
Cerved M&A track record 2004-2014
2004 2005 2008
€14mm Mar 2012
Information Services
2012 2011 2013 2014
Illustrative M&A pipeline for 2015
Resiliency Cash flow Growth
Entry into adjacent markets
€0.5 Dec 2013 €15.7mm Dec 2014 €8-9m in FY2015 40
CI BI CM Adj. MS Foreign
Advanced Preliminary Status
More Less Effort
M&A Effort and Status
2015
41
Future growth
(1) Current interest costs on €530m of outstanding bonds, net of €250m of FRNs repaid in June 2014 (2) Estimated value for the long term using an overall 34% tax rate; cash taxes in 2015 expected to be higher due to non-recurring timing effects
Resiliency Cash flow Growth
Illustrative 2014 Free Cash Flow Bridge excluding Non-Recurring Items (€m) 126 58 39 30 Actual 2014 Operating Cash Flow Interest on Current Capital Structure (1) Illustrative Cash Taxes (2) Illustrative Free Cash Flow
42
Q1’2015 Results
Appendices
Business Review on FY 2014 Results
Investment Case
Overview
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incorporated on 14 March 2014 and holds a 100% stake in Cerved Group SpA (“CG SpA”) since 28 March 2014
the CIS SpA consolidated business operations in calendar years 2013 and 2014, the financial data contained in this presentation represents the aggregate of the following consolidated accounts: (i.) CG SpA from 1 January to 31 March 2014 and CIS SpA from 14 March to 31 December 2014, and (ii.) Cerved Holding SpA from 1 January to 27 February 2013 and Cerved Group SpA from 9 January to 31 December 2013
CIS SpA and CG SpA, mainly related to costs connected to CIS SpA’s status as a listed company, and the costs incurred to carry out the IPO of CIS SpA
(listed on the Milan Stock Exchange) and CG SpA (issuer of €530m of bonds)
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% EBITDA margin % YoY Growth %
Revenues (€m) and Revenue growth (%) EBITDA (€m) and EBITDA margin (%)
136,8 139,3 142,1 35,2 36,0 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 1.8% 52.7% 53.4% 53.7% 2.0% 53.0% 54.2% 2.2% 127,4 126,3 122,0 30,3 31,1 128,8 138,2 142,7 36,0 35,2 256,2 264,5 264,6 66,3 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 3.2% Corporates: Financial Institutions: 5.3% (2.1)% (2.4)% 2.6% 0.1% CAGR 2012-2014 Q1’14 vs Q1’15 66,4 (0.1)%
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EBITDA (€m) and EBITDA margin (%)
% EBITDA margin
Revenues (€m) and Revenue growth (%)
% YoY Growth % 25,0 14,1 36,6 53,3 10,3 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 46.4% 45.5% 36.8% 4,4 7,6 11,2 1,8 2,4 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 72.4% 20.7% 17.6% 21.0% 47.2% 17.6% 17.2% 34.2%
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% EBITDA margin
EBITDA (€m) and EBITDA margin (%) Revenues (€m) and Revenue growth (%)
% YoY Growth % 3,5 4,7 6,8 1,0 1,0 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 32.3% 36.5% 35.6% 45.9% 45.0% 37.3% 34.8% (2.2)% 9,9 12,8 14,7 2,8 2,9 2012 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 29.0% 15.3% 4.8%
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Source: Company Information, 2013 as “Added data”, 2014 as “Aggregated data”; for further details refer to CIS S.p.A. Quarterly and Annual Reports (1) Includes ‘Other income’
€m 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 Total Revenues 313,5 331,3 79,3 83,0 Cost of raw material and other materials (2,8) (7,0) (1,1) (1,3) Cost of Services (77,6) (76,3) (19,4) (18,9) Personnel costs (67,2) (73,7) (17,6) (19,7) Other operating costs (8,1) (8,2) (1,8) (2,1) Impairment of receivables and other provisions (6,4) (6,3) (1,2) (1,6) EBITDA (1) 151,5 160,1 38,1 39,4 Depreciation & amortization (23,3) (25,1) (5,8) (7,2) EBITA 128,2 135,0 32,3 32,2 PPA Amortization (39,4) (42,9) (10,7) (10,8) EBIT 81,4 87,6 21,1 20,3 PBT 22,6 24,0 6,4 9,9 Income tax expenses (14,7) (12,0) (4,9) (3,8) Reported Net Income 8,0 12,0 1,5 6,1 Adjusted Net Income 43,0 55,0 9,8 14,7
1,1 1,4 0,3 0,2
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Source: Company Information, 2013 as “Added data”, 2014 as “Aggregated data”; for further details refer to CIS S.p.A. Quarterly and Annual Reports (1) Non cash item (2) Net of capitalized financing fees
€m 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 Intangible assets 501,1 472,4 491,9 462,6 Goodwill 708,6 718,8 709,0 718,8 Tangible assets 16,6 17,3 17,1 17,0 Financial assets 14,9 14,9 15,6 14,9 Fixed assets 1.241,3 1.223,4 1.233,7 1.213,4 Inventories 1,3 0,7 1,1 1,2 Trade receivables 151,5 145,3 151,1 149,8 Trade payables (30,1) (32,4) (33,8) (29,1) Deferred revenues (83,1) (73,3) (73,1) (66,9) Net working capital 39,6 40,4 45,3 54,9 Other receivables 5,8 7,1 8,3 14,2 Other payables (20,4) (26,1) (25,4) (28,1) Net corporate income tax items (27,2) (18,8) (17,7) (31,5) Employees Leaving Indemnity (10,9) (13,1) (11,1) (13,4) Provisions (15,0) (11,1) (13,0) (10,8) Deferred taxes (1) (119,8) (109,1) (118,5) (106,8) Net Invested Capital 1.093,3 1.092,7 1.101,6 1.091,8 IFRS Net Debt (2) 722,2 487,6 730,2 480,9 Group Equity 371,1 605,1 371,4 610,9 Total Sources 1.093,3 1.092,7 1.101,6 1.091,8
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Source: Company Information, 2013 as “Added data”, 2014 as “Aggregated data”; for further details refer to CIS S.p.A. Quarterly and Annual Reports
€m 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 EBITDA 151,5 160,1 38,1 39,4 Net Capex (26,6) (28,2) (7,8) (8,0) EBITDA-Capex 125,0 131,9 30,2 31,4 as % of EBITDA 82% 82% 79% 80% Cash change in Net Working Capital (24,7) 8,2 (7,1) (13,5) Change in other assets / liabilities 7,3 (13,9) (3,7) 1,3 Operating Cash Flow 107,5 126,2 19,5 19,2 Interests paid (29,1) (51,7) (22,3) (19,2) Cash taxes (18,4) (24,1) (12,8)
0,1 (3,4) (0,5) (1,0) Cash Flow (before debt and equity movements) 60,1 46,9 (16,1) (1,0) Dividends (0,1) 1,0 0,3
(509,4) (20,9) (0,4) (0,4) IPO Capital Increase (net of IPO costs)
Debt drawdown / (repayment) 482,8 (254,5)
33,5 (7,5) (16,2) (2,4)
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Source: Company Information, 2013 as “Added data”, 2014 as “Aggregated data”; for further details refer to CIS S.p.A. Quarterly and Annual Reports Note: PPA Amortization refers to business aggregation processes
€m 2013 2014 Q1'14 Q1'15 Reported Net Income 8,0 12,0 1,5 6,1 Non recurring income and expenses 7,4 4,5 0,5 1,0 Capitalized financing fees 4,1 3,4 0,9 0,7 PPA Amortization 39,4 42,9 10,7 10,8 Financial charges non-recurring
(15,8) (18,9) (3,7) (3,9) Adjustments 35,1 43,0 8,3 8,6 Adjusted Net Income 43,0 55,0 9,8 14,7