INVESTOR PRESENTATION February 2012
DISCLAIMER "T "This presentation and the associated slides and discussion contain forward-looking statements. These statements are naturally subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Those forward-looking statements may include, but are not limited to, th those regarding capital employed, capital expenditure, cash flows, costs, savings, debt, demand, depreciation, disposals, di it l l d it l dit h fl t i d bt d d d i ti di l dividends, earnings, efficiency, gearing, growth, improvements, investments, margins, performance, prices, production, productivity, profits, reserves, returns, sales, share buy backs, special and exceptional items, strategy, synergies, tax rates, trends, value, volumes, and the effects of MOL merger and acquisition activities. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by to risks, uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to developments in government regulations, foreign exchange rates, crude oil and gas prices, crack spreads, political stability, economic growth and the completion of ongoing transactions. Many of these factors are beyond the Company's ability to control or predict. Given these and other uncertainties, you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any of the forward-looking statements contained , y p y g herein or otherwise. The Company does not undertake any obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements (which speak only as of the date hereof) to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as maybe required under applicable securities laws. Statements and data contained in this presentation and the associated slides and discussions, which relate to the performance of MOL in this and future years, represent plans, targets or projections." 2
KEY FIGURES KEY FIGURES bn USD EBITDA generation in 2011 (+18%), 3 >70% from Upstream, >50% from international operation organic reserve replacement rate in last year over 200% 2P reserves at 682 MMboe* Bboe Recoverable Resource Potential (WI) in 11 countries 1.4 more than 50% in Kurdistan 9 wells to be drilled in Kurdistan Region of Iraq in 2012-2013 in European refinery ranking with the two largest assets t top 5% Executive having diesel gearing Net debt / EBITDA ratio no additional financing need in 2012 Net debt / EBITDA ratio, no additional financing need in 2012 e summary 1 4 1.4 CAPEX should be fully financed by operating cash-flow year MOL is in the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index 2 nd 2 nd uniquely in the region *MOL estimate 3
UPSTREAM-DRIVEN, INTEGRATED COMPANY Over 50% international contribution to USD 3bn EBITDA in 2011 Over 50% international contribution to USD 3bn EBITDA in 2011 GROWTH DRIVERS REGION EBITDA 2011 DATA 2011 & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE ► 682 Mmboe* SPE 2P ► Field development driven growth in short p g reserves term (RUS) ► 219%* organic reserve Upstream ► Transforming of existing exploration replacement ratio assets to production in the mid term (KAZ) ► 147 mboepd production ► Long term growth based on exploration- ► Production in 8, exploration in 12 countries led strategy (Kurdistan Region of Iraq) ► Largest assets with high net cash ► 5 refineries, 470 thbpd margin margin Downstream ► 20.5 Mtpa sales ► Strong landlocked market position with outstanding captive market ► 1,600+ filling stations ► Maintain leading position & improve ► 2 petrochemical plants profitability: efficiency improvement Refinery Refinery and reshape smaller assets Petchem Petchem unit unit Executive ► Gas Transmission: ► Growing international transit 5,560 km pipeline in , p p am ► Good geographical position ► Good geographical position e summary Gas Midstrea Hungary ► Gas Storage capacity: ► Secured EUR-base return on storage 1.9 bcm MMBF UGS Previous pipeline developments *MOL estimate 4
OVER 200% RRR: 117 MMBOE RESERVES* BOOKED IN 2011 Broader set of core countries – Russia, Kazakhstan Broader set of core countries Russia Kazakhstan Breakdown of reserves increase in 2011*/*** Breakdown of reserves** (MMboe) 20% 140 67% 147.4 120 mboepd p 13% 100 80 CEE Russia Middle East and other 60 9% 40 40 Executive 47% 20 44% 0 0 e summary CEE Russia Kazakhstan Total Oil Gas Condensate *Key additions were audited by noted auditors: DeGolyer and MacNaughton **Middle East including Syria ***MOL estimate 5
2012 PRODUCTION: 135 MBOEPD, IN NORMAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 3-4% production growth from 2014 3 4% production growth from 2014 Total hydrocarbon production by countries (mboepd)* Total hydrocarbon production by products (boepd)* 150 150 150 150 100 100 50 50 Executive - 0 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 e summary CEE Russia Middle East and other Oil Gas Condensate Short term growth is expected from Russia Largest contributors *Middle East including Syria 6
ADDITIONAL RESERVE GROWTH FROM 1.4 BBOE RESOURCE* Supporting long term growth Supporting long term growth Recoverable Resource Potential*, WI (MMboe), SPE 2P SPE 2P reserves* (MMboe) – 2012-2014 1800 900 1500 1200 600 900 600 300 300 Executive 0 0 2P Reserves (2011) Expected Reserve addition SPE 2P RRP production expectation e summary RRR could reach 130% in the next 3 years Largest contributors *Expected reserves addition and recoverable resource potential @ 100 USD/boe. p p @ *SPE 2P reserves are entitlement based, while recoverable resource potential is working interest based. * MOL estimate 7
COMPANY-MAKER POTENTIAL IN KURDISTAN REGION OF IRAQ 2 exploration and 7 appraisal wells in 2012-2013 in two blocks 2 exploration and 7 appraisal wells in 2012 2013 in two blocks Block Fully diluted WI Operator Partner Akri-Bijeel 51.2% MOL GKP Shaikan 13.6% GKP MOL ► Intensified exploration and appraisal program to fully explore block potential ► Intensified exploration and appraisal program to fully explore block potential Executive ► Ongoing early production from Shaikan Block ► Construct surface facilities in Akri-Bijeel to start early production in 2012/2013 year turn ► Construct surface facilities in Akri Bijeel to start early production in 2012/2013 year turn Largest contributors Largest contributors e summary ► 725 MMboe recoverable resource potential** ► Commercial production exp. as of 2015/2017 with projected peak 55-62 mboepd* in 2017-2020 p p p j p p *Fully diluted entitlement based at 120-80 USD/bbl. **Expected reserves addition and recoverable resource potential @ 100 USD/boe. resource potential is working interest based. MOL estimate. 8
RUSSIA, KAZAKHSTAN – UNRECOGNISED VALUE Largest contributors to short and mid-term production growth Largest contributors to short and mid-term production growth Largest contributors Fedorovsky Block Fedorovsky Block SPE 2P Reserves (MMboe) - WI 186 SPE 2P Reserves (MMboe) - WI 37 Recoverable resource potential* (MMboe) 235 Recoverable resource potential* (MMboe) 10 Executive Production 2011 (mboepd) 18.7 Peak production, plateau (year) 2019-2022 Expected production in 2017 (mboepd) 40 Peak production, plateau (mboepd) - WI 11-12 e summary *Working Interest (unrisked) *Working Interest (unrisked) Significant reserve booking in 2011 100% exploration success rate Largest contributors Largest contributors First production in 2015 First production in 2015 More than doubling production M th d bli d ti 9
CHALLENGING REFINERY ENVIRONMENT …only gradual improvement expected only gradual improvement expected CHALLENGES EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS USD/bbl Crude oil price ► We expect oil to stay on similar ► We expect oil to stay on similar 150 150 ► Surging crude oil price increased S i d il i i d levels also in mid term costs on own consumption & loss 100 dramatically 50 0 2005 2012 Brent DTD crude oil price USD/bbl Refinery margins 14 ► Deteriorating DS market in ► Many downstream companies 12 12 10 Europe in 2011 under water, further shutdowns 8 6 ► still the GDP correlated diesel drive ► Real margin improvement in-line 4 the profitability … 2 with demand increase with demand increase 0 2005 2012 Executive NWE Urals Cracking USD/bbl ► Returning Middle East heavy Brent-Ural spread 6 e summary ► Shrinking and fluctuating Shrinking and fluctuating supply 4 Brent-Ural spread ► New discoveries are heavy oils 2 ► Quality differences should be ► Quality differences should be 0 0 2005 2012 reflected in price Brent ‐ Ural spread 10
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