Climate Pathways and a Just Transition for South Africa
Presentation to BUSA Just Transition Working Group , 29 July 2020
Business Action for Sustainable Growth
@NBISA #NBIJustTransition
Climate Pathways and a Just Transition for South Africa Business - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Climate Pathways and a Just Transition for South Africa Business Action for Sustainable Growth Presentation to BUSA Just Transition Working Group , 29 July 2020 @NBISA #NBIJustTransition 0 Context and guiding principles South
Presentation to BUSA Just Transition Working Group , 29 July 2020
Business Action for Sustainable Growth
@NBISA #NBIJustTransition
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South Africa will be severely impacted by climate change in the coming decades Unlike many countries, South Africa's economic case for implementing carbon neutrality, or even a 2°C mitigation path, is negative In addition, South Africa must achieve a Just Transition to avoid exacerbating inequality, maintain social cohesion, and eradicate poverty; and plan for the physical impacts of climate change A multitude of reports have been published by domestic and international institutions about what South Africa should do, however little practical progress has been made. Many reports show a limited understanding of the full context, including local realities that may challenge transition The time is opportune for South African businesses to propose a coordinated, constructive, and inclusive way forward that protects economic competitiveness To have the desired impact, South African business must propose a position that is:
exercise by business
trade-offs, not repackaging current efforts
non-business sectors
individual bottom lines - underscored by dialogue
transition climate risk to which South Africa is exposed across development scenarios
COP26, to cement commitment and transparency and to demonstrate alignment with national poverty alleviation and economic goals
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1 3 2 5 4 What is the roadmap to a Just Transition, particularly in the geographies and sectors that will be most affected? Based on physical and climate risk, what is an appropriate level of ambition to reduce GHG emissions by 2050? What concrete measures can be implemented in each sector and how can we create an enabling policy environment to reach the ambition? What are the associated social and economic costs and what are the support requirements of the international community? What are the consequences of local and global inaction and how would the country adapt to physical risk?
In the context of a post-COVID economy
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We need to ensure company leadership is on board with the planning process and outcomes and will engage with CEOs throughout The recommendations developed must not be a surprise and must be developed with input from government and labour partners, requiring constant engagement and updating Through expert working groups, company and industry partners and experts will be included in developing solutions and recommendations Business views will be incorporated into government stakeholder processes in the build-up to COP26
South Africa’s economic vulnerability and tenuous political environment means that stakeholder engagement is critical
1 2 3 4
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Stalled progress due to resistance from pockets concerned about being left behind Inconsistent policies & regulations which incentivise counterproductive behaviour Self-optimized company scenario planning due to national level uncertainty Limited and haphazard cooperation between companies Unlocking & channelling local & international support to high need & impact areas Laying a foundation for consistent and effective policy development Defining an optimized pathway at national level to decrease uncertainty for business Mobilising coordinated cross-industry collaboration
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July Aug Sep Oct Nov
Phase 1a: High-level pathways blueprint
Dec Jan Stakeholder Engagement
…with critical South African industries/business leaders, government ministries, civil society, labour, and COP26 representatives Establish fact base and reference points (emissions baseline and outlook to 2050) Define feasible climate pathways for South Africa (incl. sector couplings) Assess feasibility and impact (incl. socio- economic and just transition implications) Detail mitigation and measures &
Feb Mar April May June June Aug
Phase 1b: Detailed design of pathways
Ramp Up to Launch Event
Priority Sectors Electricity Chemicals Mining
Develop Green Stimulus vision and strategy, prioritise 'no- regret' green projects and prepare international funding requests Enhance emissions baseline with data for remaining sectors and fine tune previously covered sectors Expand impact assessment for remaining sectors + fine tune previous Complete mitigation pathways for South Africa (incl. adaptation and resilience impact) Finalise Just Transition narrative and preparations for COP26
All Sectors Transport Metals Refining
AFOLU
Final Prep
Publish final report and roadshows Incorporate findings in COP26 negotiation strategy Accelerating Green Finance
Analysis will be completed at a sector level and follows a 80/20 approach to asset-based detailing covering key assets only (excludes adaptation and resilience detailing)
4-5 months 4-6 months
Electricity Chemicals Mining
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z Electricity Chemicals Mining Metals Refineries Materials man. Transport Financial services AFOLU1
High-level pathways blueprint
(sector modelling with 80/20 view on asset based detailing)
Detailed design of pathways
(comprehensive sector coverage and asset based detailing)
baseline and outlook
comprehensive national abatement curve
pathways and concrete plan of action (including adaptation and resilience strategy)
Accelerating Green Finance
Strategy (including recommendations on how to implement)
shovel-ready projects
Sector Inputs Deliverables
Funding secured Funding still required
2020
2021
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Government as ultimate stakeholder and recipient of final output Advisory board gives directional and methodological input. No decision power Committees and sub-committees
subjects / sectors Core project team
Steering Committee gives directional input on evolving content and process on regular basis. Can take decisions on items brought forward by core project team (within scope of study). In event of no agreement in Steerco, core project team will act as tie breaker CEO champions publicly support study, provide directional input. Can take decisions through representatives on Steerco
Government
Presidency, DEFF
NBI, BCG
Core project team Advisory boards
Selected CEO representatives
CEO champions Committees
Sub-committees: I) Commercial transport II) Public transport Sub-committees: [tbd] Sub-committees: I) Extreme weather resilience, II) Water management, III) Adaptation finance
Industry, government and civil society representatives Selected CEO representatives
Steering Committee
I) Gas supply security, II) Green H2, III) Sector coupling, IV) Waste mgmt., V) Electricity market
Workshop series
Workshop series will be held to discuss selected key enablers and opportunities
Green Stimulus Energy-related emissions Process-related emissions
Sub-committees: I) Green Stimulus vision II) Green Finance strategy Sub-committees: I) Materials manufacturing (Cement), II) Metals (Steel) , III) Chemicals, IV) Liquid fuels V) Electricity gen. Sub-committees:I) Materials manufacturing (Cement, II) Metals (Steel), III) Chemicals, IV) Liquid fuels
Transport emissions Agriculture & land-use emissions Adaptation and resilience
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Confirmed Will send representative Awaiting response Invited but declined
Legend
Advisory Board
Steering committee
Agriculture:
Automotive:
Cement:
Chemicals:
Electricity:
Industry Associations:
Financial Services:
Liquid fuels:
Metals:
Mining:
Pulp and Paper:
CEO Champions
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committees II-V (for green project development)
Green stimulus
Energy-related emissions
Eskom)
building material associations/companies (e.g. SAISI, ACMP, FAPA)
Process-related emissions
(e.g. Imperial and Barloworld)
Transport emissions
private/public associations (e.g. Forestry SA, SAPA , SAFA , ARC)
Agriculture and land-use emissions
private/public associations (e.g. Forestry SA, SAPA , SAFA , ARC)
Adaptation and resilience
representatives
Special workshops
Proposed participants (II/II)
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Proposed committees – members still to be decided
green stimulus vision and strategy
finance strategy
Win" green projects
pipeline of bankable green projects
stimulus measures and green projects
resilient agriculture
for agriculture
conservation and extension Electricity generation
renewables; Storage, compensation, and flexibility options; Energy carrier substitution; Flexible generation Industry energy efficiency
efficiency, Process alternatives; Flexible consumption
efficiency
efficiency
innovation (new materials, regenerative feedstock)
and sources of energy)
power system
resilience (e.g; infrastructure, early warning systems)
complementarities with green and sustainable finance and potential for public-private partnerships
Key topics Green Stimulus vision & G&S1 finance strategy Agriculture & land-use emissions Energy-related emissions Process-related emissions Transport-related emissions Adaption & resilience Committee
Non exhaustive & for discussion
1. Green stimulus vision 2. Green and sustainable finance strategy 3. 1st batch of "Quick Win" green projects 4. Process to build future project pipeline 5. Recommendations for removing barriers to green projects 1. Baselining input 2. Levers &
agriculture and land- use emissions and adaptation 3. Identified technical and policy / regulatory key enablers 1. Baselining input (asset view) 2. Quantified levers &
supply side and demand side 3. Identified technical and policy / regulatory key enablers 1. Baselining input (asset view) 2. Quantified levers &
process emissions 3. Identified technical and policy / regulatory key enablers 1. Baselining input 2. Levers &
transport / mobility emissions mitigation 3. Identified technical and policy / regulatory key enablers 1. View on vulnerabilities and risk to sectors posed by climate change 2. Quantified levers &
adaption & resilience 3. Timeline of proposed investments 4. Complementarities with green and sustainable finance strategy
Key deliver- ables
For example:
security
unbundling 1. View on new business
2. View on cross-cutting structural enablers
technologies and policies 3. Proposed roadmap for considered measures
Special workshops Key enablers &
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Committee I: Green stimulus vision & green and sustainable finance strategy
Proposing a green stimulus strategy incl. vision, green and sustainable finance strategy, view on first batch
Suggested members
Government reps e.g.; Presidency, DEFF, National Treasury Industry reps from committees II-V (for green project development)
Suggested BCG experts
TBD
WIP
Green Stimulus
Governmental alignment
PCCCC which have mandate to align departments on one strategy Finance
to draft finance strategy Technical expertise
sectors with expertise on potential green measures (e.g.; transport, industry, agriculture etc.) Policy makers
(e.g.; electricity, transport) which can remove policy barriers ❖ Stimulus strategy ❖ Green and sustainable finance
vision and strategy
strategy
projects
measures and green projects Vision and strategy
Stimulus vision and strategy?
credibility? Green and sustainable finance
green and sustainable finance strategy?
sustainable financing? Bankable green projects
projects with funding potential) exist?
going forward for further developing green projects?
Competences required Sub-committees & key topics Key questions (examples)
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Committee II: Energy-related emissions
Power supply
Grids
heating Fuels
Emitters
materials, Mining, Metals (excl. steel), Food products, Paper, Glass & ceramics, Textiles, Mining Factories and processes
process control, specialty chemicals ❖ Power generation ❖ Metals ❖ Material manufacturing ❖ Chemicals ❖ Mining ❖ Liquid fuels Electricity generation
flexibility options
Industry process energy efficiency
storage, PtG, etc.) Electricity generation
accelerated, including via self-generation?
efficiency of existing fossil-fuel plants?
terms of CO2 emissions?
with the expansion of renewables?
gas/liquid?
the power supply?
e.g. through location of new production Industry process efficiency
efficient? How can power/heat/steam required be emission-free?
Emission related to the use or generation and supply of energy (electricity, thermal energy) e.g. emission from power generation, energy demand for industry processes and resulting emissions, etc.
Suggested members
Eskom IPP Association SAPVIA SAWEA EIUG businesses Transnet NERSA Governmnet reps: NERSA, DEFF, DTI, DPME, DMRE
Suggested BCG experts
TBD
WIP
Energy-related emissions
Competences required Sub-committees & key topics Key questions (examples)
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Committee III: Process-related emissions
Operators (emitters)
Factories and processes
Customers (for materials)
❖ Chemicals ❖ Building materials ❖ Metals ❖ Mining ❖ Liquid fuels
innovation (new materials, regenerative feedstock)
sources of energy) Chemicals
avoided in the chemical industry?
input in e.g.; methanol and NH3 production? Are F-gases replaceable by less potent GHGs?
material (even in other sectors)? Steel
blast furnace route be reduced? What possible alternatives to blast furnaces are there? Building materials
cement production? What is the availability of more energy-efficient devices (e.g.; kilns)?
building materials help curb emissions? Overarching: How great is the potential of CCS/CCU in terms of CO2 emissions?
Competences required Sub-committees & key topics Key questions (examples)
Emissions released in industry processes from chemical or physical transformation of materials
Suggested members
Top emitters (excl. Eskom)1 Chemicals, steel and building material associations/companies (e.g. SAISI2 , ACMP3, FAPA4 ) Government reps: DEFF
Suggested BCG experts
TBD
WIP
Process-related emissions
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Committee IV: Transport-related emissions
Competences required
Transportation modes
suppliers (incl. trucks)
manufacturers)
manufacturers)
and/or manufacturers)
Transport & logistics
Suppliers
❖ Public transport ❖ Commercial transport
system
Key questions (examples)
road to rail)? What bottlenecks to be avoided from past experience (e.g.; Bus Rapid Transit)?
transport planning (e.g., to avoid combustions)? How can synergies be created with other city planning (e.g.; housing)?
improved public transport, conventional automotive drives and existing conventional drives in aviation and maritime transport?
supplement existing fossil fuel-based drives in road and rail transport? What
Biofuels Regulatory Framework of 2019?
replace fossil fuels in aviation and maritime transport?
Emissions from freight, commercial and personal transport
Suggested members
Transnet Logistics companies (e.g. Imperial and Barloworld) Metros1 Government reps: DoT, DPME, DSI
Suggested BCG experts
TBD
WIP
Transport emissions
Sub-committees & key topics
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Committee V: Agriculture and land-use emissions
Competences required
Regional impact of climate change Agriculture expertise / Climate smart agriculture Land and forestry management and conservation ❖ Agricultural production ❖ Land management
agriculture
agriculture
extension
Key questions (examples)
Food security
food production and water management side to combat/mitigate desertification?
context? What are unavoidable regional climate impacts, how can SA ensure food security? Emission reduction
be mitigated and further avoided?
function as carbon sinks? How can they be conserved and further grown? Policy alignment
place to coordinate the response from the agricultural sector? What are barriers to implementation of current policy?
institutions be facilitated?
Emissions from agricultural activities and land management. Potential and need for adaptation
Suggested members
Agricultural private/public associations (e.g. Forestry SA, SAPA1 , SAFA2 , ARC3 ) Major retailers Government reps: DEFF, Provincial governments
Suggested BCG experts
TBD
WIP
Agriculture and land-use emissions
Sub-committees & key topics
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Committee VI: Adaption and resilience
Measures and timeline of investments to adapt and build resilience to climate change
Suggested members
Government reps e.g.; DEFF, National Treasury Industry reps from committees II-V (for green project development) Academics
Suggested BCG experts
TBD
WIP Technical expertise
sectors with expertise on potential risks and measures for resilience
understanding of current technology Finance
green and sustainable finance strategy Regional impact of climate change
change ❖ Food security ❖ Water security ❖ Disaster Risk Management ❖ Finance
and vulnerabilities (e.g.; infrastructure)
allow adaption & resilience to climate change
facilitate levers
sustainable finance strategy Food security (Agriculture)
with what investment time-line? e.g.; drought-resistant crops, water storage Water security
industry/agriculture put in place?
monitoring be improved? Disaster risk reduction
systems are up to date and efficiently utilised (e.g.; communicated effectively)
for risk reduction? Finance
green and sustainable finance strategy?
private partnerships?
Competences required Key questions (examples) Sub-committees & key topics
Adaptation and resilience
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Special workshops on selected key enablers and opportunities
Key topics Key questions (examples) Competences required
Development of points of view for selected topics incl. key enablers to the identified levers
Green Hydrogen
industry?
considered timeframes? Natural gas supply security
Sector coupling
from increased sector coupling (e.g.; electrification of specific energy demand) Waste management
industrial and public waste management?
Electricity market reform
Eskom unbundling etc.)?
Suggested members
Sasol Eskom Academics (e.g. CSIR) BUSA and NBI sector representatives Government reps: DSI, DPME, DMRE
Suggested BCG experts
TBD
WIP
Relevant industry representatives and topic experts
Social Plan for SA's Just Transition
be put in place to address social issues arising from climate action?