Climate Pathways and a Just Transition for South Africa Business - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate Pathways and a Just Transition for South Africa Business - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Pathways and a Just Transition for South Africa Business Action for Sustainable Growth Presentation to BUSA Just Transition Working Group , 29 July 2020 @NBISA #NBIJustTransition 0 Context and guiding principles South


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Climate Pathways and a Just Transition for South Africa

Presentation to BUSA Just Transition Working Group , 29 July 2020

Business Action for Sustainable Growth

@NBISA #NBIJustTransition

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Context … … and guiding principles

South Africa will be severely impacted by climate change in the coming decades Unlike many countries, South Africa's economic case for implementing carbon neutrality, or even a 2°C mitigation path, is negative In addition, South Africa must achieve a Just Transition to avoid exacerbating inequality, maintain social cohesion, and eradicate poverty; and plan for the physical impacts of climate change A multitude of reports have been published by domestic and international institutions about what South Africa should do, however little practical progress has been made. Many reports show a limited understanding of the full context, including local realities that may challenge transition The time is opportune for South African businesses to propose a coordinated, constructive, and inclusive way forward that protects economic competitiveness To have the desired impact, South African business must propose a position that is:

  • Unbiased – fact-based and objective, not a lobbying

exercise by business

  • Ambitious – proposing step-change solutions and difficult

trade-offs, not repackaging current efforts

  • Unified – widely supported across all critical industries and

non-business sectors

  • Just – centered on socio-economic implications, not only

individual bottom lines - underscored by dialogue

  • Balanced – efforts are in proportion to the physical and

transition climate risk to which South Africa is exposed across development scenarios

  • Visible – anchored on a major international and local event,

COP26, to cement commitment and transparency and to demonstrate alignment with national poverty alleviation and economic goals

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A coordinated national effort is required

  • n critical

questions

1 3 2 5 4 What is the roadmap to a Just Transition, particularly in the geographies and sectors that will be most affected? Based on physical and climate risk, what is an appropriate level of ambition to reduce GHG emissions by 2050? What concrete measures can be implemented in each sector and how can we create an enabling policy environment to reach the ambition? What are the associated social and economic costs and what are the support requirements of the international community? What are the consequences of local and global inaction and how would the country adapt to physical risk?

In the context of a post-COVID economy

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We need to ensure company leadership is on board with the planning process and outcomes and will engage with CEOs throughout The recommendations developed must not be a surprise and must be developed with input from government and labour partners, requiring constant engagement and updating Through expert working groups, company and industry partners and experts will be included in developing solutions and recommendations Business views will be incorporated into government stakeholder processes in the build-up to COP26

South Africa’s economic vulnerability and tenuous political environment means that stakeholder engagement is critical

1 2 3 4

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This study has the potential to move SA away from … And create enormous value by …

Stalled progress due to resistance from pockets concerned about being left behind Inconsistent policies & regulations which incentivise counterproductive behaviour Self-optimized company scenario planning due to national level uncertainty Limited and haphazard cooperation between companies Unlocking & channelling local & international support to high need & impact areas Laying a foundation for consistent and effective policy development Defining an optimized pathway at national level to decrease uncertainty for business Mobilising coordinated cross-industry collaboration

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We propose a collaborative study to accelerate Green Stimulus & create a 'unified voice of SA business' at COP 26

July Aug Sep Oct Nov

Phase 1a: High-level pathways blueprint

Dec Jan Stakeholder Engagement

…with critical South African industries/business leaders, government ministries, civil society, labour, and COP26 representatives Establish fact base and reference points (emissions baseline and outlook to 2050) Define feasible climate pathways for South Africa (incl. sector couplings) Assess feasibility and impact (incl. socio- economic and just transition implications) Detail mitigation and measures &

  • pportunities per sector

Feb Mar April May June June Aug

Phase 1b: Detailed design of pathways

Ramp Up to Launch Event

Priority Sectors Electricity Chemicals Mining

Develop Green Stimulus vision and strategy, prioritise 'no- regret' green projects and prepare international funding requests Enhance emissions baseline with data for remaining sectors and fine tune previously covered sectors Expand impact assessment for remaining sectors + fine tune previous Complete mitigation pathways for South Africa (incl. adaptation and resilience impact) Finalise Just Transition narrative and preparations for COP26

All Sectors Transport Metals Refining

  • Mat. Manf.

AFOLU

Final Prep

Publish final report and roadshows Incorporate findings in COP26 negotiation strategy Accelerating Green Finance

Analysis will be completed at a sector level and follows a 80/20 approach to asset-based detailing covering key assets only (excludes adaptation and resilience detailing)

4-5 months 4-6 months

Electricity Chemicals Mining

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Deliverables will be developed incorporating inputs from all sectors of the economy

z Electricity Chemicals Mining Metals Refineries Materials man. Transport Financial services AFOLU1

High-level pathways blueprint

(sector modelling with 80/20 view on asset based detailing)

  • National emissions baseline and outlook to 2050
  • Sector abatement curves and impact assessment
  • Climate pathways

Detailed design of pathways

(comprehensive sector coverage and asset based detailing)

  • Enhanced emissions

baseline and outlook

  • Fine tuned and

comprehensive national abatement curve

  • National mitigation

pathways and concrete plan of action (including adaptation and resilience strategy)

Accelerating Green Finance

  • Green Stimulus Vision and

Strategy (including recommendations on how to implement)

  • Plan of action to fund

shovel-ready projects

  • 1. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use

Sector Inputs Deliverables

Funding secured Funding still required

2020

2021

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To ensure representative, balanced and fact-based content; a comprehensive governance structure is proposed

Government as ultimate stakeholder and recipient of final output Advisory board gives directional and methodological input. No decision power Committees and sub-committees

  • Develop content under steering of core project team
  • Can comment on integrated/consolidated content
  • Committees will practically work in sub-committees dedicated to specific

subjects / sectors Core project team

  • Leads content development within committees
  • Leads content integration and consolidation
  • Drives stakeholder engagement (incl. CEO process + touchpoints with govt.)

Steering Committee gives directional input on evolving content and process on regular basis. Can take decisions on items brought forward by core project team (within scope of study). In event of no agreement in Steerco, core project team will act as tie breaker CEO champions publicly support study, provide directional input. Can take decisions through representatives on Steerco

Government

Presidency, DEFF

NBI, BCG

Core project team Advisory boards

Selected CEO representatives

CEO champions Committees

Sub-committees: I) Commercial transport II) Public transport Sub-committees: [tbd] Sub-committees: I) Extreme weather resilience, II) Water management, III) Adaptation finance

Industry, government and civil society representatives Selected CEO representatives

Steering Committee

I) Gas supply security, II) Green H2, III) Sector coupling, IV) Waste mgmt., V) Electricity market

Workshop series

Workshop series will be held to discuss selected key enablers and opportunities

Green Stimulus Energy-related emissions Process-related emissions

Sub-committees: I) Green Stimulus vision II) Green Finance strategy Sub-committees: I) Materials manufacturing (Cement), II) Metals (Steel) , III) Chemicals, IV) Liquid fuels V) Electricity gen. Sub-committees:I) Materials manufacturing (Cement, II) Metals (Steel), III) Chemicals, IV) Liquid fuels

Transport emissions Agriculture & land-use emissions Adaptation and resilience

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A combination of governance structure participants and NBI committee members targeted for launch event

Confirmed Will send representative Awaiting response Invited but declined

Legend

Advisory Board

  • Joanne Yawitch | NBI & Chair
  • Bongani Nqwababa
  • Mike Levington | SAPVIA
  • Xolisa Ngwadla | CSIR
  • Jessie Burton | ERC
  • Maesela Kekana | DEFF
  • TBC | DTIC
  • TBC| DMRE
  • Rebecca Maserumule| DSI
  • TBC | DPE
  • Morné du Plessis | WWF
  • Tracey Davies | Just Share
  • Roger Baxter | MCSA
  • Andrew Etzinger | Eskom
  • Gaylor Montmasson-Clair | TIPS
  • Matthew Parks | COSATU
  • Ismail Momniat | Nat. Treasury

Steering committee

  • Shamini Harrington | Sasol
  • Mandy Rambharos | Eskom
  • Sherman Indhul | Transnet
  • Joanne Yawitch | NBI
  • Shameela Soobramoney | JSE
  • Mzila Mthenjane | Exxaro
  • Madeleine Ronquest | FirstRand
  • Jarredine Morris | BUSA
  • Rafiek Sharfuddin| Imperial
  • Stan Pillay | Anglo
  • Lucas Chaumontet | BCG
  • Stefano Niavas | BCG

Agriculture:

  • J. Purchase | AgBiz

Automotive:

  • J. van Zyl | Toyota
  • T. Schaefer | VW
  • T. Abbott | BMW
  • A. Engling | Mercedes
  • M. Akoojee | Imperial
  • D. Sewela | Barloworld

Cement:

  • R. van Wijnen | PPC

Chemicals:

  • F. Grobler | Sasol

Electricity:

  • A. de Ruyter | Eskom

Industry Associations:

  • J. Yawitch | NBI
  • C. Coovadia | BUSA

Financial Services:

  • L. Fourie | JSE
  • S. Tshabalala | Standard Bank
  • M. Brown | Nedbank
  • I. Williamson | Old Mutual
  • I. Kirk | Sanlam

Liquid fuels:

  • T. Mojapelo | BP
  • P. Sachet | Total
  • Y. Hassan | Engen
  • F. Grobler | Sasol

Metals:

  • K. Verster | AMSA

Mining:

  • M. Mgojo | Exxaro
  • N. Fakude | Anglo
  • N. Viljoen | Anglo

Pulp and Paper:

  • S. Binnie | Sappi

CEO Champions

  • Tasneem Essop | NPC
  • Zeph Nhleko | DBSA
  • TBC | EU SPIPA
  • TBC | PACT
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Deep-dive Committees

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  • Presidency
  • DEFF
  • National Treasury
  • ​Industry reps from

committees II-V (for green project development)

Green stimulus

  • ​Eskom
  • IPP Association
  • SAPVIA
  • SAWEA
  • EIUG businesses
  • ​Transnet
  • NERSA
  • DMRE
  • DEFF
  • ​DTI
  • DPME

Energy-related emissions

  • ​Top emitters (excl.

Eskom)

  • ​Chemicals, steel and

building material associations/companies (e.g. SAISI, ACMP, FAPA)

  • DEFF

Process-related emissions

  • ​Transnet
  • ​Logistics companies

(e.g. Imperial and Barloworld)

  • ​Metros
  • ​DoT
  • DPME
  • DSI

Transport emissions

  • Agricultural

private/public associations (e.g. Forestry SA, SAPA , SAFA , ARC)

  • Major retailers
  • DEFF

Agriculture and land-use emissions

  • Agricultural

private/public associations (e.g. Forestry SA, SAPA , SAFA , ARC)

  • Major retailers
  • DEFF

Adaptation and resilience

  • ​Sasol
  • ​Eskom
  • ​Academics (e.g. CSIR)
  • BUSA and NBI sector

representatives

  • DSI
  • DPME
  • DMRE

Special workshops

Proposed participants (II/II)

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Proposed committees – members still to be decided

  • Government wide

green stimulus vision and strategy

  • Green and sustainable

finance strategy

  • 1st batch of "Quick

Win" green projects

  • Process to build

pipeline of bankable green projects

  • Barriers to green

stimulus measures and green projects

  • Climate smart /

resilient agriculture

  • Mitigation measures

for agriculture

  • Carbon sink

conservation and extension Electricity generation

  • Unlocking potential of

renewables; Storage, compensation, and flexibility options; Energy carrier substitution; Flexible generation Industry energy efficiency

  • Tech. process

efficiency, Process alternatives; Flexible consumption

  • Process alternatives
  • Technical process

efficiency

  • Organizational

efficiency

  • Process and product

innovation (new materials, regenerative feedstock)

  • Substitution (material

and sources of energy)

  • Efficiency of drives
  • Change in fuel
  • New fuels
  • Freight transport
  • ptions
  • Modal split
  • New organization
  • Linking transport with

power system

  • Extreme weather

resilience (e.g; infrastructure, early warning systems)

  • Water management
  • Finance, including

complementarities with green and sustainable finance and potential for public-private partnerships

Key topics Green Stimulus vision & G&S1 finance strategy Agriculture & land-use emissions Energy-related emissions Process-related emissions Transport-related emissions Adaption & resilience Committee

Non exhaustive & for discussion

1. Green stimulus vision 2. Green and sustainable finance strategy 3. 1st batch of "Quick Win" green projects 4. Process to build future project pipeline 5. Recommendations for removing barriers to green projects 1. Baselining input 2. Levers &

  • pportunities for

agriculture and land- use emissions and adaptation 3. Identified technical and policy / regulatory key enablers 1. Baselining input (asset view) 2. Quantified levers &

  • pportunities for

supply side and demand side 3. Identified technical and policy / regulatory key enablers 1. Baselining input (asset view) 2. Quantified levers &

  • pportunities for

process emissions 3. Identified technical and policy / regulatory key enablers 1. Baselining input 2. Levers &

  • pportunities for

transport / mobility emissions mitigation 3. Identified technical and policy / regulatory key enablers 1. View on vulnerabilities and risk to sectors posed by climate change 2. Quantified levers &

  • pportunities for

adaption & resilience 3. Timeline of proposed investments 4. Complementarities with green and sustainable finance strategy

Key deliver- ables

For example:

  • Natural gas supply

security

  • Green Hydrogen
  • Sector coupling
  • Waste management
  • Pre-requisite: Eskom

unbundling 1. View on new business

  • pportunities

2. View on cross-cutting structural enablers

  • incl. game changer

technologies and policies 3. Proposed roadmap for considered measures

Special workshops Key enablers &

  • pportunities
  • 1. Green and Sustainable
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Committee I: Green stimulus vision & green and sustainable finance strategy

Proposing a green stimulus strategy incl. vision, green and sustainable finance strategy, view on first batch

  • f "Quick Win" projects, process for further developing project pipeline, and barrier identification

Suggested members

Government reps e.g.; Presidency, DEFF, National Treasury Industry reps from committees II-V (for green project development)

Suggested BCG experts

TBD

WIP

Green Stimulus

Governmental alignment

  • Bodies such as Presidency and

PCCCC which have mandate to align departments on one strategy Finance

  • Entity with expertise and mandate

to draft finance strategy Technical expertise

  • Various players from different

sectors with expertise on potential green measures (e.g.; transport, industry, agriculture etc.) Policy makers

  • Policy makers for relevant fields

(e.g.; electricity, transport) which can remove policy barriers ❖ Stimulus strategy ❖ Green and sustainable finance

  • Government wide green stimulus

vision and strategy

  • Green and sustainable finance

strategy

  • 1st batch of "Quick Win" green

projects

  • Process to build evolving pipeline
  • f bankable green projects
  • Barriers to green stimulus

measures and green projects Vision and strategy

  • What should be SA's overarching Green

Stimulus vision and strategy?

  • How to externally communicate and build

credibility? Green and sustainable finance

  • What should be the government wide

green and sustainable finance strategy?

  • What are current barriers to green and

sustainable financing? Bankable green projects

  • What "Quick Wins" (shovel-ready green

projects with funding potential) exist?

  • What should be the private-public process

going forward for further developing green projects?

  • What are barriers to green projects?

Competences required Sub-committees & key topics Key questions (examples)

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Committee II: Energy-related emissions

Power supply

  • National utility, IPPs

Grids

  • Power grids, gas grids, district

heating Fuels

  • Refinery

Emitters

  • Chemicals, Steel, Building

materials, Mining, Metals (excl. steel), Food products, Paper, Glass & ceramics, Textiles, Mining Factories and processes

  • Factories, mechanical engineering,

process control, specialty chemicals ❖ Power generation ❖ Metals ❖ Material manufacturing ❖ Chemicals ❖ Mining ❖ Liquid fuels Electricity generation

  • Unlocking potential of renewables
  • Storage, compensation, and

flexibility options

  • Energy carrier substitution
  • Game changers (e.g. H2)

Industry process energy efficiency

  • Technical process efficiency,
  • rganisational efficiency
  • Process alternatives
  • Flexible consumption (DSM,

storage, PtG, etc.) Electricity generation

  • How can renewables deployment be

accelerated, including via self-generation?

  • What is the potential for increasing the

efficiency of existing fossil-fuel plants?

  • How great is the potential of CCU/CCUS in

terms of CO2 emissions?

  • To what extent can grid expansion keep up

with the expansion of renewables?

  • How great is the potential for power-to-

gas/liquid?

  • What storage technologies could stabilize

the power supply?

  • How can the new energy mix maintain jobs

e.g. through location of new production Industry process efficiency

  • How can processes become more energy

efficient? How can power/heat/steam required be emission-free?

Emission related to the use or generation and supply of energy (electricity, thermal energy) e.g. emission from power generation, energy demand for industry processes and resulting emissions, etc.

Suggested members

Eskom IPP Association SAPVIA SAWEA EIUG businesses Transnet NERSA Governmnet reps: NERSA, DEFF, DTI, DPME, DMRE

Suggested BCG experts

TBD

WIP

Energy-related emissions

Competences required Sub-committees & key topics Key questions (examples)

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Committee III: Process-related emissions

Operators (emitters)

  • Chemicals
  • Steel
  • Building materials
  • Mining

Factories and processes

  • Plant engineering
  • Process control

Customers (for materials)

  • Car manufacturers, construction

❖ Chemicals ❖ Building materials ❖ Metals ❖ Mining ❖ Liquid fuels

  • Process alternatives
  • Technical process efficiency
  • Organizational efficiency
  • Process and product

innovation (new materials, regenerative feedstock)

  • Substitution (material and

sources of energy) Chemicals

  • To what extent can nitrous oxide emissions be

avoided in the chemical industry?

  • To what extent can natural gas be replaced as

input in e.g.; methanol and NH3 production? Are F-gases replaceable by less potent GHGs?

  • How can CO2 emissions be used as a raw

material (even in other sectors)? Steel

  • To what extent can the CO2 intensity of the

blast furnace route be reduced? What possible alternatives to blast furnaces are there? Building materials

  • Can less carbon-intensive fuels be used in

cement production? What is the availability of more energy-efficient devices (e.g.; kilns)?

  • Can product innovation or alternatives in

building materials help curb emissions? Overarching: How great is the potential of CCS/CCU in terms of CO2 emissions?

Competences required Sub-committees & key topics Key questions (examples)

Emissions released in industry processes from chemical or physical transformation of materials

Suggested members

Top emitters (excl. Eskom)1 Chemicals, steel and building material associations/companies (e.g. SAISI2 , ACMP3, FAPA4 ) Government reps: DEFF

Suggested BCG experts

TBD

WIP

Process-related emissions

  • 1. Sasol; ArcelorMittal, South32, Anglo America, PPC, Sappi, African Rainbow Minerals, Exxaro, Gold Fields 2. South African Iron & Steel Institute 3. Association of Cementitious Material Producers
  • 4. Ferro Alloys Producers
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Committee IV: Transport-related emissions

Competences required

Transportation modes

  • Automotive manufacturers,

suppliers (incl. trucks)

  • Rail transport (operators and/or

manufacturers)

  • Aviation (operators and/or

manufacturers)

  • Maritime transport (operators

and/or manufacturers)

  • Public transport

Transport & logistics

  • Logistics providers

Suppliers

  • Mineral oil/refinery
  • Battery production

❖ Public transport ❖ Commercial transport

  • Efficiency of drives
  • Change in fuel
  • New fuels
  • Freight transport options
  • Modal split
  • New organization
  • Linking transport with power

system

Key questions (examples)

  • Can a modal shift lead to GHG savings (e.g.;

road to rail)? What bottlenecks to be avoided from past experience (e.g.; Bus Rapid Transit)?

  • What is the impact of improved urban

transport planning (e.g., to avoid combustions)? How can synergies be created with other city planning (e.g.; housing)?

  • How great is the efficiency potential for

improved public transport, conventional automotive drives and existing conventional drives in aviation and maritime transport?

  • To what extent can electric drives replace or

supplement existing fossil fuel-based drives in road and rail transport? What

  • pportunities/bottlenecks are there under the

Biofuels Regulatory Framework of 2019?

  • To what extent can synthetic or biogenic fuels

replace fossil fuels in aviation and maritime transport?

Emissions from freight, commercial and personal transport

Suggested members

Transnet Logistics companies (e.g. Imperial and Barloworld) Metros1 Government reps: DoT, DPME, DSI

Suggested BCG experts

TBD

WIP

Transport emissions

Sub-committees & key topics

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Committee V: Agriculture and land-use emissions

Competences required

Regional impact of climate change Agriculture expertise / Climate smart agriculture Land and forestry management and conservation ❖ Agricultural production ❖ Land management

  • Water management
  • Climate smart / resilient

agriculture

  • Mitigation measures for

agriculture

  • Carbon sink conservation and

extension

  • Policy alignment

Key questions (examples)

Food security

  • What approaches need to be taken on the

food production and water management side to combat/mitigate desertification?

  • What is "climate smart agriculture" in the SA

context? What are unavoidable regional climate impacts, how can SA ensure food security? Emission reduction

  • How can emissions from agricultural activities

be mitigated and further avoided?

  • What is the potential of existing forests to

function as carbon sinks? How can they be conserved and further grown? Policy alignment

  • What policy infrastructure needs to be put in

place to coordinate the response from the agricultural sector? What are barriers to implementation of current policy?

  • How can alignment between national and local

institutions be facilitated?

Emissions from agricultural activities and land management. Potential and need for adaptation

Suggested members

Agricultural private/public associations (e.g. Forestry SA, SAPA1 , SAFA2 , ARC3 ) Major retailers Government reps: DEFF, Provincial governments

Suggested BCG experts

TBD

WIP

  • 1. SA Poultry Association 2. SA Feedlot Association 3. Agricultural Resource Council

Agriculture and land-use emissions

Sub-committees & key topics

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Committee VI: Adaption and resilience

Measures and timeline of investments to adapt and build resilience to climate change

Suggested members

Government reps e.g.; DEFF, National Treasury Industry reps from committees II-V (for green project development) Academics

Suggested BCG experts

TBD

WIP Technical expertise

  • Various players from different

sectors with expertise on potential risks and measures for resilience

  • Experts in weather resilience with

understanding of current technology Finance

  • Identify complementarities with

green and sustainable finance strategy Regional impact of climate change

  • Identify vulnerabilities to climate

change ❖ Food security ❖ Water security ❖ Disaster Risk Management ❖ Finance

  • Identification of risks to sectors

and vulnerabilities (e.g.; infrastructure)

  • Levers and opportunities that

allow adaption & resilience to climate change

  • Timeline of investments to

facilitate levers

  • Complementarities with green and

sustainable finance strategy Food security (Agriculture)

  • How can agriculture build resilience, and

with what investment time-line? e.g.; drought-resistant crops, water storage Water security

  • What efficient water practices can

industry/agriculture put in place?

  • How can planning, forecasting and

monitoring be improved? Disaster risk reduction

  • How can it be ensured that early warning

systems are up to date and efficiently utilised (e.g.; communicated effectively)

  • What research/partnerships have potential

for risk reduction? Finance

  • What complementarities exist with the

green and sustainable finance strategy?

  • What opportunities are there for public-

private partnerships?

Competences required Key questions (examples) Sub-committees & key topics

Adaptation and resilience

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Special workshops on selected key enablers and opportunities

Key topics Key questions (examples) Competences required

Development of points of view for selected topics incl. key enablers to the identified levers

Green Hydrogen

  • What is SA's potential to develop a green H2

industry?

  • What would be the climate impact? What are the

considered timeframes? Natural gas supply security

  • What is the role of natural gas in the future economy?
  • How can supply be secured?

Sector coupling

  • What are the needs around and potential benefits

from increased sector coupling (e.g.; electrification of specific energy demand) Waste management

  • What is the mitigation potential from improved

industrial and public waste management?

  • What are potential circular economy approaches=

Electricity market reform

  • What is needed to remove existing roadblocks (e.g.;

Eskom unbundling etc.)?

Suggested members

Sasol Eskom Academics (e.g. CSIR) BUSA and NBI sector representatives Government reps: DSI, DPME, DMRE

Suggested BCG experts

TBD

WIP

Relevant industry representatives and topic experts

Social Plan for SA's Just Transition

  • What are the main pillars of a social plan that need to

be put in place to address social issues arising from climate action?

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