Chorus Aviation Capital Presentation October 26, 2017 Caution - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Chorus Aviation Capital Presentation October 26, 2017 Caution - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Chorus Aviation Capital Presentation October 26, 2017 Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Information Certain information in this presentation may contain forward-looking information as defined under applicable Canadian securities
Certain information in this presentation may contain ‘forward-looking information’ as defined under applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking information typically contains words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “could”, “should”, “estimate”, “expect”, “intend”, “may”, “plan”, “predict”, “project”, “will”, “would”, and similar words and phrases, including references to assumptions. Such information may involve but is not limited to comments with respect to strategies, expectations, planned operations or future actions. Forward-looking information relates to analyses and other information that are based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and other uncertain events. Forward-looking information, by its nature, is based on assumptions, including those described in this presentation, and is subject to important risks and uncertainties. Any forecasts or forward-looking predictions or statements cannot be relied upon due to, amongst other things, external events, changing market conditions and general uncertainties of the business. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause results to differ materially from expectations in this presentation include, without limitation: risks relating to Chorus’ economic dependence on and relationship with Air Canada; risks relating to the airline industry (including the international operation of aircraft in developing countries and areas of unrest); aircraft leasing (including the financial condition of lessees, availability of aircraft, access to capital, fluctuations in aircraft market values, competition and political risks); energy prices, general industry, market, credit, and economic conditions (including a severe and prolonged economic downturn which could result in reduced payments under the Capacity Purchase Agreement (‘CPA’) with Air Canada); competition affecting Chorus and/or Air Canada; insurance issues and costs; supply issues and costs; the risk of war, terrorist attacks, aircraft incidents and accidents; epidemic diseases, environmental factors or acts of God; changes in demand due to the seasonal nature of Chorus’ business or general economic conditions; the ability of Chorus to reduce operating costs and employee counts; the ability of Chorus to secure financing; the ability of Chorus to attract and retain the talent required for its existing operations and future growth; the ability of Chorus to remain in good standing under and to renew and/or replace the CPA and other important contracts; employee relations, labour negotiations or disputes; pension issues, currency exchange and interest rates; leverage and restrictive covenants contained in debt facilities; uncertainty of dividend payments; managing growth; changes in laws, adverse regulatory developments or proceedings in countries in which Chorus and its subsidiaries operate or will operate; pending and future litigation and actions by third parties. For a further discussion of risks, please refer to Chorus’ most recent MD&A and to the Annual Information Form dated February 15, 2017. The statements containing forward-looking information in this presentation represent Chorus’ expectations as of October 12, 2017, and are subject to change after such date. However, Chorus disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under applicable securities laws.
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Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Information
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Chorus at a Glance
TSX: CHR
Ticker symbol
Monthly dividend of $0.04 per share
~ $248 million
Adjusted EBITDA, excluding other items - 2016
~ $1.3 billion
Operating revenue - 2016
Focused on building additional shareholder value
+104%
Three year share price performance(2)
~ $1.1 billion
Market capitalization(1)
Consistently profitable since becoming publicly traded in 2006
(1) Calculated using closing price of Chorus shares of $8.59 on the TSX on October 4, 2017. (2) Between October 4, 2014 and October 4, 2017.
- Focused on providing a full suite of regional airline services
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Chorus Lines of Business
Contracted flying
- perations
Maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) Regional aircraft leasing
Operated by
Focus area of growth and revenue diversification 1 2 3
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Overview of Contracted Flying Operations
1
- Jazz is responsible for providing crews, airframe
maintenance, flight operations, some airport
- perations, and general administration
- Scope operation
- ~700 daily flights
- 73 destinations in North America
- Fleet of 117 aircraft
- Three types of missions
- Smaller markets with less demand
- High density markets at off-peak times
- Point-to-point services on lower density routes
- Jazz is Air Canada’s primary regional supplier,
providing ~70% of their regional capacity
- Voyageur provides specialized contracted flying
and aviation services
- Contract flying services
- Missions
- Flight operations
- Fleet of 18 owned aircraft (16 Bombardier
manufactured)
- Flying ACMI missions around the world for over 12
years
- Blue-chip customers such as the United Nations
- Contracted services done with Canadian licenses,
certifications, and designations
Air Canada Express – Operated by Jazz Voyageur World-renowned reputation for superior safety standards and operational integrity.
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Overview of MRO Operations
- Separate division under Jazz
- Stand alone profit centre
- Focused on traditional heavy
maintenance on Bombardier aircraft
- Established in 2016
- Regional aircraft part sales and service
- Operating in North Bay, ON
- 200,000 square foot facility
- Highly specialized and custom MRO and
engineering, design for domestic & international clients 2
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Overview of Chorus Aviation Capital
3
- Established in January 2017.
- Fairfax Financial invested $200 million in
Chorus through a private placement of convertible debt.
- New subsidiary Chorus Aviation Capital
(“CAC”) setup to build a global, regional aircraft leasing platform - further advancing Chorus’ growth and diversification strategy.
- Delivers a full suite of support services to
customers worldwide by leveraging the expertise within Chorus’ group of companies.
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Strategic Vision
Opportunity
Chorus established, Chorus Aviation Capital (CAC) for the purpose of acquiring, financing, leasing and trading regional aircraft.
- Focused exclusively on the 70 to 135 seat
commercial market segment.
- Objective is to become a leading global
regional aircraft lessor.
- Create significant synergies with Chorus'
- ther businesses.
Execution
Chorus believes there is a significant
- pportunity to develop a large and profitable
leasing platform.
- Global
passenger growth continues to accelerate.
- Regional aircraft leasing segment is stable
and currently underserved with limited competition
- Segment enjoys premium yields and sector
margins with favorable access to capital.
Accelerating Global Passenger Growth
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- Over the last 20 years, passenger demand has
increased at an average of 5% per annum
- Outpacing GDP growth by 2.7x
- Increasing size of the global fleet
- Growing market share of aircraft on operating lease
- Significant increase in aggregate number of aircraft on
lease
Air Travel Expected to Double in the Next 15 Years Airlines are More Dependent on Operating Leases
World annual RPK (trillions)
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Airbus GMF 2015 ICAO total traffic
2x
...and will double again in the next 15 years
2,200+ 3,300+ 5,200+ 6,800+ 9,600+ 17% 22% 30% 34% 40% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1995 2000 2005 2010 Mar-16 % on Operating Lease
- No. of Commercial Aircraft
Operating Lease Operating Lease Market Share (%)
Sources: Airbus Global Market Forecast (2016), Boeing Current Market Outlook (2016), ICAO Historical Traffic Figures, Ascend, ICAO (1983 – 2013) and IATA December 2015 (2014-15)
Airline passenger growth will remain robust.
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Aircraft Leasing Continues To Build Momentum
Over half of the world’s fleet expected to be leased by 2020.
1970
3,772 a/c 17 leased 0.4%
1980
6,037 a/c 100 leased 1.7%
1990
9,160 a/c 1,343 leased 24.7%
2000
15,032 a/c 3,713 leased 24.7%
2011
21,741 a/c 7,943 leased 36.5%
2020
Forecast Over 50% leased
Sources: Boeing Current Aircraft Market Outlook 2016
Aircraft Leasing is a Financially Attractive Segment
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Profit Before Tax Margins Return on Average Equity1
15.2% 16.7% 22.8% 24.8% 25.8% 26.2% 29.7% 32.1% 36.8% 38.4% 41.8% Aircastle ACG Avation SinoAero AerCap Alafco NAC Air Lease Corp BOC Aviation CALC AviaAM 6.1% 6.8% 7.3% 8.4% 10.5% 11.1% 11.9% 12.7% 14.0% 21.0% 33.9% ACG Aircastle Alafco Air Lease Corp Avation AviaAM BOC Aviation CALC AerCap NAC SinoAero
Source: Air Finance Journal Leasing Top 50, company reports, The Airline Analyst Notes: 1 Shareholder loans as equity
Five Verticals of Aviation Leasing
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Commercial Corporate Regional Helicopters Engines
Transactions / Year: 1,500 aircraft US $100bn Percent Leases: 40% Large Lessors: 35+ Comments: NB – Narrow body WB – Wide body Passenger Cargo Transactions / Year: 650 aircraft US $18bn Percent Leases: 15% Large Lessors: 1 Comments: General Aviation Civil Air Transportation Transactions / Year: 300 aircraft US $10bn Percent Leases: 20% Large Lessors: 4 Comments: TP – Turboprops RJ – Regional Jets 100 seats or less Transactions / Year: 500 aircraft US $6bn Percent Leases: 15% Large Lessors: 6 Comments: Industrial Air Transport Emergency Response Transactions / Year: 200 engines US $2bn Percent Leases: 30% Large Lessors: 10+ Comments: Turbine Engines Spares and maintenance rotation
*Large Lessors defined as corporations with assets greater than US $1bn
Uncrowded Regional Aircraft Leasing Market
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Commercial Corporate Regional Helicopters Engines
/
Large Competitors
Chorus Has Already Become a Significant Leader in Regional Aircraft Leasing
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Portfolio Value (Estimated)
Source: Chorus Estimates
5,400 2,700 1,100 1,050 800 700 700 500 400 400 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 NAC GECAS Chorus Avolon DAE ELIX FALKO CDB Leasing Avation GOAL
(US$m)
Regional Aircraft are Fundamental to Efficient Air Transport
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Worldwide Flight Distribution By Aircraft Type Worldwide Distribution of Aircraft by Type
- 30% of passenger fly less than 550 km (300 mi.)
- 60% of the world's communities linked with regional
aircraft
- Regional aircraft fleet is ~24% of total commercial fleet
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Flights 2012 (million) Distance Category (km) Turboprop (TP) Regional Jet (RJ) 61-120 Narrow Body (NB)
83% of NB flights are over 500 km 63% of J61-120 flights are over 500 km 83% of TP flights are under 500 km
14,800 4,300 5,900 Narrow Body (NB) Wide Body (WB) Regional Aircraft (RJ/TP) TP RJ
- Regional aircraft have specific applications for short take-off and landing and extreme conditions
Source: OAG 2012, Boeing / Bombardier
Extensive Network of Regional Airlines Worldwide
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Continent CRJ Q400 ATR eJets North America 33 6 6 12 South America 8
- 8
10 Europe 28 10 41 24 Africa 18 3 23 5 Asia 15 4 24 23 Australia
- 1
5 3 Total Operators 102 24 107 77
A diverse set of potential customers on every continent We continue to see significant demand for regional aircraft leases
Source: Company websites, Airfleets (July 2017)
Regional Transport Dominated by Three Manufacturers
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- Q400
- CRJ 700/900/1000
- E170/E175/E190/E195
- ATR42/72
56% / 1,500
- verall
44% / 1,200
- verall
2,700 Aircraft Bombardier Dash 8 Family ATR Family
Turboprop Market Share1
Product Lines (in production) Product Lines (classics)
- Dash 8 - 100/200/300
- CRJ - 100/200
- ERJ135/ERJ140/ERJ145
- Variants of 42/72
58% / 2,600
- verall
42% / 1,900
- verall
4,500 Aircraft Bombardier CRJ Family Embraer ERJ / Ejets Family
Regional Jet Market Share1
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Deliveries Have Been Historically Stable
Regional Aircraft Historical and Projected Deliveries
149 150 132 131 177 185 199 192 193 227 107 99 100 103 108 101 99 99 95 95 256 249 232 234 285 286 298 291 288 322 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Regional Jets Turboprops 2010–2015 Average Deliveries: 257
1 2
Source: Airline Monitor, Wall Street Research Notes: 1 Includes CRJ700/705, CRJ900, CRJ1000, CS100, EMB135/140/145, EMB170/175, EMB190/195, SSJ100, MRJ, A318, 737-600, ARJ21 2 Includes ATR42, ATR72, Q400
Regional Aircraft Future Values Similar to Narrow-Body
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
ATR 72 600 ERJ 190 Canadaair RJ 900-900ER/900LR ERJ 175 Boeing 737-800 Airbus A321 DHC 8-400 Airbus A320
Projected half-life base values over time assuming 1.5% annual inflation
Aircraft % of Original Value Airbus A321 34.98% Airbus A320 34.21% Boeing 737-800 33.67% ATR 72-600 40.54% DHC 8-400 37.57% ERJ 175 38.78% ERJ190 38.15% Canadaair RJ 900-900ER / 900LT 31.41% Average Mainline 34.28% Average Turboprops 39.05% Average Regional Jets 36.11%
Regional Aircraft: An Ideal Leased Asset
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- Resilient Demand Expectations with a Broad User Base
― The 70-130+ seat fleet is expected to grow 4-5% per year over the next 20 years ― Operational efficiencies from regional aircraft play a key role in hub-and-spoke networks
- Attractive Aircraft Type for Shorter Routes
― Regional aircraft allow airlines to optimize aircraft size and reduce per-seat cost ― ~50% of global passengers fly on trips below 500 miles and ~30% of global passengers fly on trips below 300 miles
- Geographically Diverse Demand Dynamics
― Economic growth in emerging markets is expected to significantly outpace those in advanced economies ― The emergent urban middle classes in these areas present a real opportunity to expand air travel capabilities which will require the use of turboprop and regional jet aircraft
- Stable Supply
― Historical deliveries of regional aircraft have been relatively consistent ― Regional aircraft projected deliveries are stable
- Ability to Hold Values Over Time
― Values of regional jets and turboprops have proved less volatile relative to most narrow body aircraft 2 4 3 5 1
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- Announced transactions for 19 regional aircraft.
- Five aircraft types from three manufacturers with average age of 2.7 years.
- Clients now include seven major regional airlines in seven countries on five continents.
- New clients include Azul, Aeromexico, Air Nostrum, Falcon Aviation, Flybe, KLM & Virgin Australia.
- Locked-in leasing stream with an average term of greater than 7 years.
- Lease revenue producing expected yield.
- Committed financing for all 19 new regional aircraft.
- Average LTV of portfolio of 75% (Debt: Equity 3:1).
- Expanded management team with five new appointments with 23 years average commercial aircraft experience.
- Opened and staffed our Irish office.
- Acquisitions will nicely contribute to Chorus Aviation returns in subsequent quarters.
- Financial forecast metrics all meeting or exceeding our targets.
Scale Diversity Returns Experience Liquidity Visibility
Progress to Date
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Assembled a Highly Experienced Management Team
Steven Ridolfi President
- SVP, Strategic Investments, Mergers & Acquisitions, Chorus Aviation
- SVP, Strategy, Mergers and Acquisitions, Bombardier
- President, Business Aircraft, Bombardier
- President, Regional Aircraft Bombardier
James Bruce Peddle Chief Operating Officer
- VP, Aircraft Leasing and Trading, Chorus Aviation
- VP, Marketing & Sales, Bombardier Flexjet
- VP, Commercial, Embraer North America
- Managing Director, Embraer Asia Pacific
Cameron Mountenay Chief Financial Officer
- VP, Structured Finance, Bombardier
- VP, Finance and Contracts, Bombardier
- VP, Asset Management & Business Development, Bombardier
Rory McQueen Vice President, Finance & Capital Markets
- VP, Capital Markets, Lease Corporation International (LCI)
- Head of Treasury, Vistajet
- Director, Structured Finance, Bombardier
- Director, Aircraft Finance, Bank of Scotland
Jim Murphy Vice President, Transactions & Control
- Director, Corporate Development & Aircraft Programs, Chorus Aviation
- VP, Commercial Operations, Provincial Airlines
- Director, Marketing & Fleet Planning, Canadian Airlines
Anil Mohan Vice President Legal
- Associate General Counsel, Chorus Aviation
- General Counsel, Halifax International Airport
- Legal Counsel, IMP Group
Una Slevin Vice President, Contracts
- Head of Finance and Operations, CIT Aerospace
- Treasury Manager, CIT Group Finance
- Financial Controller, CIT Group Finance
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Progress to Date
Azul 2x E195s KLM 1x E190s Aeromexico 1x E190s Aeromexico 2x E190s Air Nostrum 4x CRJ1000s Flybe 3x ATR72-600s Virgin Australia 3x ATR72-600s Falcon 3x Q400s
Contracted for 19 aircraft with an average age of 2.7 years.
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Progress to Date
Chorus Aviation Capital
Aircraft Portfolio By Lessee Aircraft Lessee Country Geographic Region Aircraft Model Number Of Units Azul Brazil South America Embraer 195 2 Aeromexico Mexico North America Embraer 190 3 Air Nostrum Spain Europe CRJ1000 4 Falcon Aviation United Arab Emirates Middle East Q400 3 Flybe United Kingdom Europe ATR 72-600 3 KLM Cityhopper Netherlands Europe Embraer 190 1 Virgin Australia Australia Asia and Pacific ATR 72-600 3
7 Lessees 7 Countries 5 Continents 5 Models 19
Seven major regional airlines in seven countries on five continents.
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Regional Aircraft Sourcing Channels
Portfolio Acquisition
- Purchase of existing assets and leases from existing lessors.
Airline Sale Leaseback
- Sale and leaseback of existing or future aircraft deliveries.
Skyline Leases
- Direct purchase from OEM for subsequent lease to airlines.
There are a significant number of profitable lease transactions available to CAC.
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Chorus Aviation Capital Growth Opportunity
- We believe there is a significant opportunity to develop a large and profitable leasing
platform by exploiting this currently underserved segment and prevailing market dynamics.
- We have been able to consummate a significant number of successful profitable