Changing Mobility and Implications for ICEs Change is Ha Happ - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Changing Mobility and Implications for ICEs Change is Ha Happ ppening ng Fast SA SAE - IC ICE 2019 Septembe ber 17, , 2019 Mic ichael hael Berube e Ac Acting ing Deputy uty Assist istant nt Secret retar ary y for for
1 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Changing Mobility and Implications for ICE’s – Change is Ha Happ ppening ng Fast
SA SAE - IC ICE 2019
Septembe ber 17, , 2019
Mic ichael hael Berube e Ac Acting ing Deputy uty Assist istant nt Secret retar ary y for for Transpor sporta tation tion
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Vehicle cle Technologies
systems
H2 & Fuel Cell ll Technologie nologies
electrochemical, electrolysis)
Bioen energy ergy Technologie nologies
chemicals from waste
US S DOE
17 National Laboratories
$700m/year Transportation R&D
World-class capabilities:
Computing
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: WTOP
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: National Archives Source: NASA Source: Boeing
1903 Wright Brothers First Flight 1969 Apollo 11 Moon Landing 2019 Modern Commercial Aviation
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
1903 1969 2019 Mustang
Source: Motor1.com
AV Development Vehicle
Source: Ford Motor Company
Model A
Source: myAutoWorld.com
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: melissamn/Shutterstock Source: Pinterest Source: Spin Source: Alain Jocard/Getty Images
SHARED MICROMOBILITY TRIPS
(NACTO)
Total Trips Taken (Millions)
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: InBin Source: Shutterstock Source: iStock Source: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: GETTY IMAGES (MLENNY) Source: AirportImprovement.com Source: David Goldman/AP
TNC & Taxi Ridership in the U.S., 1990-2017
Bruce Shaller, Shaller Consulting
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Share red d Mobil ility ty Mobil ility ty On Demand and e-Comme merce ce Connect nected ed & Au Automat
ed Vehic icles es Emerg rging ng Fuels s & Powertra rains ns New ew Modes es
nsport
NEW TECHN CHNOL OLOG OGIE IES & & BU BUSIN INES ESS MODELS ELS ARE
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
NEW & GROWING MARKETS
ECONOM NOMIC IC OPPOR ORTUNIT UNITY Transpo porta tati tion
is t the e 2nd
nd most
t expe pensiv ive e spe pendi ding c g categor egory y af after er hous usin ing g 3 UN UNDER R UT UTILIZE ZED ASSETS TS Today’s Cars Are Parked 95%
e Tim ime e 1
Ride Sharing Market Growth 2
1 RAC Foundation (https://www.racfoundation.org/research/mobility/spaced-out-perspectives-on-parking) 2 Goldman Sachs (https://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/Rethinking%20Mobility_GoldmanSachsMay2017.pdf)
11
11 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
EIA Energy Outlook to 2050, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/aeo2019.pdf
igh level el of ren enewables es
argi gina nal l cost st of el elec ectr trons
Flexib ible le Loads ds
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
$197/kWh kWh
Gra raph phite/ ite/High gh Volt ltage ge NMC
System m Cost t ($/kWh /kWh)
$0 $0 $200 00 $600 00 $500 00 $400 00 $300 00 $100 00
Yea ear
2014 14 2020 20 2022 22 2024 24 2012 12 2016 16 2018 18 2026 26 2028 28 2030 30
Sili licon con/High gh Volt ltage ge NMC Lith thium ium-Met etal l or Lith thium ium/Su /Sulf lfur
$320/kWh kWh (5x exces ess Li, 10%S %S) ~$80/kWh kWh
Graphite/High Voltage NMC Silicon/High Voltage NMC Lithium-Metal & Li/Sulfur
R&D Focus: Higher cathode capacity (220+ mAh/g), low/no Cobalt, recycling, fast charge R&D Focus: Higher anode capacity (1000+ mAh/g), cycle/calendar life, fast charge R&D Focus: Solve cycle life/ catastrophic failure issues, reduce excess lithium, reduce excess electrolyte, reduce lithium metal cost
ReCell Cell - $5M/yr yr Batt tter ery y Recycling cling Resear earch ch + $ $5M Batt tter ery y Prize ize
13 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Electric tric Dri rive System m - Volume me Redu duction tion Required red 202 025+ 5+
20+ Liter er Volu lume me 3 Liter er Volu lume me
Current ent Status us
3 kW/ / li liter r densi nsity ty
x incr crease ease
0% co cost st red educti uction
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
15
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY Photo Credit: Nikola
EL ELEC ECTRIFI TRIFICATION TION & R & REN ENEW EWAB ABLES LES
Nik ikola la has 13 13,000 ,000 Hydr drogen
Fuel el Cel ell trucks cks on Orde der
Photo Credit: Toyota
Toyota/P ta/PACC CCAR AR Fue uel Cell Truc uck
‹#›
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
1980’s ->AIRLINE: IRLINE: Hub & S & Spoke Challen llenges ges / Opportun unities ities in Freigh ght:
er Shortages ages: : 50,000 in 2018
A TRAC study: y: decreasing asing trip length ths
raffic fic Cong ngestio estion: n: 1.2 billion lion ho hours
ficienc iency y & O & Operationa ional l Costs sts
Source: Delta Airlines
50% of goods moved less than 100 miles between origin and destination
17
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
UTILI ILITIE TIES S Ha Have e Announc
ed - $3.7B .7B in in EV EV In Infr fras astructu tructure re
Updated: 4/15/2019 Details: North American Utility Electric Transportation Charging Infrastructure Program Overview – 2018 statusEL ELEC ECTRIFY TRIFY AMER ERIC ICA (over
er 10yr yrs) ) $2.0
.0B in in EV EV Charging arging
(currently 27,000 stations in US/Canada)
% in increa ease e from
8 – 2019 9 in in the e nu number er of char argin ging g po ports
echt htel el announce ceme ment t – coll llaborat boration ion to buil ild d large ge scale e fast charg rgin ing g net etwork
18 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: NREL
PV LCOE Benchmark Summary
Costs sts
Costs sts
System stem Cost st ($/kW /kWh)
$0 $0 $200 200 $600 600 $500 500 $400 400 $300 300 $100 100
2014 2014 2020 2020 2022 2022 2024 2024 2012 2012 2016 2016 2018 2018 2026 20264V, NMC $219/kW kWh 4.7 Volt
Graphi hite/ e/Hi High h Voltage e NMC$256 256/kWh 4.2V, 10% Si
Silicon/4.7 7 Volt, 30% Si
2028 2028 2030 2030Cost Trends for Lithium-based EV Batteries
Lithium um-Met etal or Lithium um/Sul ulfur5x excess ss Li, 10% S $320/kW kWh 1.5x excess ss Li, 75% S, ~ ~$80/kWh kWh
Penetrat tration ion Global EV Forecast
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Millions
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Connect nected ed & Au Automat
ed Vehic icles es
E N E R G Y U S E
Empty miles Easier Travel Increased use by underserved populations Vehicles right-sized Less hunting for parking Collision avoidance Platooning
E N E R G Y U S E
EXPLORE ORES S POTENTIAL ENTIAL ENERGY Y IMPACTS
Share red d Mobil ility ty Mobil ility ty On Demand and e-Comme merce ce Connect nected ed & Au Automat
ed Vehic icles es Emerg rging ng Fuels s & Powertra rains ns New ew Modes es
nsport
20 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Most t Focus us is on development
component
vehicle cle level or stan and-alon alone e services Additional research needs to understand the Syst stem em Level l Impacts acts
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
21 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Entire Urban Area
FROM ROM VE VEHICL ICLE E TO CIT ITY Y LE LEVE VEL
MOVES
Corridor / Small Network Single Vehicle
22 22 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
TO COMP OMPLEX LEX QUESTIONS ESTIONS
MESOSCOPIC SIMULATION
FUELING Infrastructure LAND USE MARKET Penetration
MICROSCOPIC TRAFFIC FLOW MULTI-VEHICLE CONTROL
AGENT-BASED SED TRANSP SPOR ORTATION TION SYS YSTE TEM M MODELI LING
TRAVELER BEHAVIOR SYSTEM CONTROL FREIGHT MOVEMENT
TRIP PROFILES ENERGY Consumption
EVI-PRO UrbanSim MA3T, ADOPT
MEP
SVTRIP
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
HO HOW DO WE
Mobil ilit ity: y: The e qua ualit ity y of a a net networ
k or system em to conn nnec ect t pe peopl ple e to go goods, ds, ser ervic ices, es, and e d empl mploymen yment t that t de defin ine a e a hig igh qualit ity y of lif ife. e.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
in a geographically defined area
MEP
𝑗 = 𝑙 𝑢
(𝑝𝑗𝑙𝑢 − 𝑝𝑗𝑙(𝑢−10)) ∙ 𝑓𝑉𝑗𝑙𝑢 𝑉𝑗𝑙𝑢 = 𝛽𝑓𝑙 + 𝛾𝑢 + 𝜏𝑑𝑙 𝑓𝑙 – energy intensity of mode 𝑙 𝑑𝑙 – cost of mode 𝑙 where 𝛽, β, 𝜏 – weighting parameters 𝑝𝑗𝑙𝑢 =
𝑘
𝑝𝑗𝑘𝑙𝑢 ∙ 𝑂∗ 𝑂
𝑘
∙ 𝑔
𝑘
𝑘 𝑔
𝑘
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
LAND USE TRIP FREQUENCY ENERGY COST
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Final Energy Weighted Mobility Metric
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
ENERGY Y EFFICI ICIENT ENT MOBILIT ITY Y SYST YSTEMS EMS
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
ITY Y ENERG RGY Y PRODUCTIVIT RODUCTIVITY
D MEP D MEP D MEP MEP va value
Baseline MEP distribution Scenario A: Sharing is Caring Scenario B: Technology Takes Over Scenario C: All About Me
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Baseline Technology Takes Over
PEV CHARGI GING NG DEMAND ND
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
commerce ce increa crease sed d Al All l purch chasing asing by 9%
BUT, , overal erall l energy ergy due to e-com commer merce ce co could ld decrease ecrease 40-60% 60%
Delivery substitution for and supplementation of shopping trips
ENERGY Y EFFICI ICIENT ENT MOBILIT ITY Y SYST YSTEMS EMS
Tot
l energy y for delivery y and ret etail shoppi pping ng trips s
Baseline: 1 Delivery 7 Deliveries 3 Deliveries
31 31 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
ENERGY Y EFFICI ICIENT ENT MOBILIT ITY Y SYST YSTEMS EMS
ecti tivit ity y has the e pot poten entia ial l to red educe ce en ener ergy gy and d smoo
th traffic ic
e impa impact t of hig igh level els of CAVs wil ill be v e ver ery di differ eren ent t if if they are pr e prim imaril ily y in in pe personally ly owned ed veh ehic icle e vs cen entra ral l fleets eets.
Photo Source U.S. DOT
Shared ed AV Fleet et Privat ate e AVs
Overall auto to travel el much lower in when en AVs are shared ed 19.2% 2% of auto to hou
s travel eled by empty ty vehic icles es – mostl stly y private tely owned ed 11.4% 4% of auto to hou
s travel eled by empty ty SAV vehic icles es
VHT by time of day (million)
32 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
SMART RT MOBILI LITY Y LAB
NEW OPPOR PORTU TUNITI NITIES ES FOR
Exascale scale Com
puti ting ng Available ailable in 20 n 2021 1
33
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Simple calculation shows:
PEV starting in 2020 and growing linearly to 40% in 2040
till ll 60% % of vehicl hicle e stock ck (~ (~200M 200M ca cars) ) rema mains ns gas as
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Vehicle Stock EVs Gasoline *assumes all retirements are gas cars at 15M/year
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
tic pot potential ial to pro produ duce ce 1 bi billion n ton
biom
ss ann nnually ually by 2030 030
pendi ding g over ver $20 200M 0M on Drop rop-in in Bio-fue fuels ls
le, pi pilot
cilitie ities s coming ing online ne
Photo courtesy of PNNL$2.4 .48
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Biomass Deconstruction, Conversion & Upgrading CARBON ENERGY EMISSIONS Carbon Dioxide Reduction and Water Electrolysis
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Acting ing Deputy uty As Assi sista tant nt Secre retar tary y for r Transpor portati tation
Office ce of En Energy rgy Ef Efficien iency cy and Rene newable able En Ener ergy gy U.S. . Departm tmen ent t of En Energy rgy Michae ael.Be l.Berube be@ee ee.d .doe
.gov