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Califor Califor nias F nias F our our th Climate th Climate Change Asse ssme nt Change Asse ssme nt Bo a rd o f Dire c to rs Me e ting Bo a rd o f Dire c to rs Me e ting Ma rc h 5, 2019 Ma rc h 5, 2019 I I te m 6 te m 6 Ove

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SLIDE 1

Califor nia’s F

  • ur

th Climate Change Asse ssme nt Califor nia’s F

  • ur

th Climate Change Asse ssme nt

Bo a rd o f Dire c to rs Me e ting Ma rc h 5, 2019 I te m 6 Bo a rd o f Dire c to rs Me e ting Ma rc h 5, 2019 I te m 6

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SLIDE 2

Ove r vie w Ove r vie w

1. Clima te Cha ng e & Sc ie nc e 2. Ca lifo rnia Asse ssme nts 3. Pro je c tio ns (mo de ling & re sults) 4. L A Re g io n a nd Sa nta Cla rita 5. Wa te r I mpa c ts

a . Wa te r supply a nd de ma nd b . I mpo rte d Wa te r c . Wa te rshe d d. Wa te r q ua lity e . Gro undwa te r ma na g e me nt

6. Ada pta tio n 1. Clima te Cha ng e & Sc ie nc e 2. Ca lifo rnia Asse ssme nts 3. Pro je c tio ns (mo de ling & re sults) 4. L A Re g io n a nd Sa nta Cla rita 5. Wa te r I mpa c ts

a . Wa te r supply a nd de ma nd b . I mpo rte d Wa te r c . Wa te rshe d d. Wa te r q ua lity e . Gro undwa te r ma na g e me nt

6. Ada pta tio n

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SLIDE 3

Not c ove r e d Not c ove r e d

  • Sa nta Ana Winds
  • Clo uds
  • Se a L

e ve l Rise

  • Humidity
  • Air Qua lity
  • E

ne rg y

  • T

ra nspo rta tio n

  • L

a nd Use & De ve lo pme nt

  • E

me rg e nc y Ma na g e me nt

  • Pub lic He a lth
  • Sa nta Ana Winds
  • Clo uds
  • Se a L

e ve l Rise

  • Humidity
  • Air Qua lity
  • E

ne rg y

  • T

ra nspo rta tio n

  • L

a nd Use & De ve lo pme nt

  • E

me rg e nc y Ma na g e me nt

  • Pub lic He a lth
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SLIDE 4
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SLIDE 5
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SLIDE 6

Why is unde r standing c limate c hange impor tant? Why is unde r standing c limate c hange impor tant?

Climate c hange will affe c t ne arly all aspe c ts o f life , inc luding e c o syste ms, the built e nviro nme nt, and public he alth. Climate c hange will affe c t ne arly all aspe c ts o f life , inc luding e c o syste ms, the built e nviro nme nt, and public he alth.

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SLIDE 7

Natur al Climate Change Natur al Climate Change

Mila nko vitc h Cyc le s- Na tura l wa rming a nd c o o ling c lima te c yc le s Mila nko vitc h Cyc le s- Na tura l wa rming a nd c o o ling c lima te c yc le s

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SLIDE 8

Conc e ntr ation

  • f Co2 in the

atmosphe r e

  • ve r

the past fe w hundr e d thousand ye ar s. NASA/ NOAA Conc e ntr ation

  • f Co2 in the

atmosphe r e

  • ve r

the past fe w hundr e d thousand ye ar s. NASA/ NOAA

Unc ha rte d T e rrito ry

97% o f c lima te sc ie nc e e xpe rts a nd 97% o f c lima te sc ie nc e pa pe rs (12,000) a g re e wa rming is ma n-ma de

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SLIDE 9

Climate Pr

  • je c tions

Climate Pr

  • je c tions

Glo b a l Clima te Mo de ls (GCM’ s) – mo de l o f ho w the E a rth’ s a tmo sphe re ,

  • c e a ns, la nd

surfa c e s a nd se a ic e inte ra c t to a ffe c t the c lima te . Glo b a l Clima te Mo de ls (GCM’ s) – mo de l o f ho w the E a rth’ s a tmo sphe re ,

  • c e a ns, la nd

surfa c e s a nd se a ic e inte ra c t to a ffe c t the c lima te .

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SLIDE 10

Climate Pr

  • je c tions

Climate Pr

  • je c tions

Re pre se nta tive Co nc e ntra tio n Pa thwa ys (RCP’ s) “Gre e n Ho use Ga sse s” Re pre se nta tive Co nc e ntra tio n Pa thwa ys (RCP’ s) “Gre e n Ho use Ga sse s”

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SLIDE 11

Califor nia’s Climate Change Asse ssme nts Califor nia’s Climate Change Asse ssme nts

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SLIDE 12

F

  • ur

th Asse ssme nt: Suppor ting Adaptation and R e silie nc e F

  • ur

th Asse ssme nt: Suppor ting Adaptation and R e silie nc e

Sta te wide Re po rts  Summa ry Re po rt  Ca lifo rnia ’ s Oc e a n a nd Co a st  T

rib a l a nd I ndig e no us Co mmunitie s within Ca lifo rnia

 Clima te Justic e

Re g io na l Re po rts (9)

T e c hnic a l Re po rts (44)  Ag ric ulture , Bio dive rsity, E

ne rg y, F

  • re sts a nd Wildfire ,

Go ve rna nc e , Oc e a ns & Co a sts, Pro je c tio ns, Da ta se ts, a nd T

  • o ls,

Pub lic He a lth, Wa te r (10)

T

  • o ls

 Sta te po rta l fo r a c c e ssing c lima te c ha ng e pro je c tio ns  He a lth info rme d he a t thre sho lds fo r c o mmunitie s  Co a sta l flo o ding sc e na rio s

Sta te wide Re po rts  Summa ry Re po rt  Ca lifo rnia ’ s Oc e a n a nd Co a st  T

rib a l a nd I ndig e no us Co mmunitie s within Ca lifo rnia

 Clima te Justic e

Re g io na l Re po rts (9)

T e c hnic a l Re po rts (44)  Ag ric ulture , Bio dive rsity, E

ne rg y, F

  • re sts a nd Wildfire ,

Go ve rna nc e , Oc e a ns & Co a sts, Pro je c tio ns, Da ta se ts, a nd T

  • o ls,

Pub lic He a lth, Wa te r (10)

T

  • o ls

 Sta te po rta l fo r a c c e ssing c lima te c ha ng e pro je c tio ns  He a lth info rme d he a t thre sho lds fo r c o mmunitie s  Co a sta l flo o ding sc e na rio s

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SLIDE 13

CA Climate Pr

  • je c tions

CA Climate Pr

  • je c tions

“These findings are profoundly serious and will continue to guide us as we confront the apocalyptic threat of irreversible climate change.” – Gov. Jerry Brown

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SLIDE 14

L

  • s Ange le s

R e gion R e por t L

  • s Ange le s

R e gion R e por t

K e y pro je c te d c lima te c ha ng e s: 1. Co ntinue d future wa rming (Avg . ma x te mps)

  • 4-5º F

inc re a se b y mid-c e ntury

  • 5-8º de g re e F

inc re a se b y la te -c e ntury

2. # e xtre me te mp da ys to inc re a se a s we ll a s te mpe ra ture s 3. Pre c ipita tio n – dry a nd we t e xtre me s e xpe c te d to inc re a se 4. Se a le ve l rise

  • 1-2 ft inc re a se b y mid-c e ntury
  • 8-10 ft inc re a se b y e nd o f c e ntury

5. Wildfire inc re a se s K e y pro je c te d c lima te c ha ng e s: 1. Co ntinue d future wa rming (Avg . ma x te mps)

  • 4-5º F

inc re a se b y mid-c e ntury

  • 5-8º de g re e F

inc re a se b y la te -c e ntury

2. # e xtre me te mp da ys to inc re a se a s we ll a s te mpe ra ture s 3. Pre c ipita tio n – dry a nd we t e xtre me s e xpe c te d to inc re a se 4. Se a le ve l rise

  • 1-2 ft inc re a se b y mid-c e ntury
  • 8-10 ft inc re a se b y e nd o f c e ntury

5. Wildfire inc re a se s

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SLIDE 15

L A R e gion Pr e c ipitation L A R e gion Pr e c ipitation

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SLIDE 16

Santa Clar ita E xtr e me He at Pr e dic tions – Days ove r 103.8º F Santa Clar ita E xtr e me He at Pr e dic tions – Days ove r 103.8º F

HI GHE R WAT E R DE MANDS

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SLIDE 17

Santa Clar ita E xte nde d Dr

  • ught

Sc e nar ios Santa Clar ita E xte nde d Dr

  • ught

Sc e nar ios

GCM’ s pro je c t > 80% c ha nc e o f a multide c a da l dro ug ht during 2050-2099 unde r RCP 8.5

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SLIDE 18

Wate r Impac ts Wate r Impac ts

SCVWA Wa te r De ma nd Wa te rshe d I mpo rte d Wa te r Wa te r Supply Wa te r Qua lity Gro undwa te r Ma na g e me nt

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SLIDE 19

Wate r Supply Manage me nt Change s Wate r Supply Manage me nt Change s

 T

iming o f supply

 Re duc e d wa te r a va ila b ility  Wa te r supply po rtfo lio  Ne w supply o ptio ns  T

iming o f supply

 Re duc e d wa te r a va ila b ility  Wa te r supply po rtfo lio  Ne w supply o ptio ns

BY 2050 WAT E R SUPPL Y F ROM SNOWPACK I S PROJE CT E D T O DE CL I NE BY T WO-T HI RDS

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SLIDE 20

Impor te d Wate r Impor te d Wate r

 I

nc re a se d flo o ds

 Re se rvo ir o pe ra tio n risks  ma na g ing mo re e xtre me

ra infa ll e ve nts a nd pre ve nting flo o ds

 Ca rryo ve r sto ra g e de c line  I

nc re a se d dro ug ht

 Re duc e d wa te r a va ila b ility  I

nc re a se d flo o ds

 Re se rvo ir o pe ra tio n risks  ma na g ing mo re e xtre me

ra infa ll e ve nts a nd pre ve nting flo o ds

 Ca rryo ve r sto ra g e de c line  I

nc re a se d dro ug ht

 Re duc e d wa te r a va ila b ility

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SLIDE 21

CA De lta CA De lta

  • Hig he r se a le ve ls
  • L

e ve e fa ilure

  • Gre a te r flo o ds
  • Sa ltwa te r intrusio n
  • Unc e rta intie s in ma na g e me nt
  • f c ritic a l ha b ita t
  • Unc e rta intie s in ma na g e me nt
  • f c o nve ya nc e a re a s
  • Hig he r se a le ve ls
  • L

e ve e fa ilure

  • Gre a te r flo o ds
  • Sa ltwa te r intrusio n
  • Unc e rta intie s in ma na g e me nt
  • f c ritic a l ha b ita t
  • Unc e rta intie s in ma na g e me nt
  • f c o nve ya nc e a re a s
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SLIDE 22

Gr

  • undwate r

Manage me nt Gr

  • undwate r

Manage me nt

  • Critic a l so urc e
  • I

nc re a se d g ro undwa te r sto ra g e

  • Ma na g e fluc tua tio ns (drie r dry's

a nd we tte r we ts)

  • Shift fro m vo lunta ry to

ma nda to ry re q uire me nts

  • Gro undwa te r dro ug ht re se rve s
  • Critic a l so urc e
  • I

nc re a se d g ro undwa te r sto ra g e

  • Ma na g e fluc tua tio ns (drie r dry's

a nd we tte r we ts)

  • Shift fro m vo lunta ry to

ma nda to ry re q uire me nts

  • Gro undwa te r dro ug ht re se rve s
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SLIDE 23

Wate r De mand Change s Wate r De mand Change s

  • E

va po tra nspira tio n inc re a se

  • Urb a n la ndsc a pe – CRI

T I CAL

  • Wa te r use b e ha vio r
  • E

va po tra nspira tio n inc re a se

  • Urb a n la ndsc a pe – CRI

T I CAL

  • Wa te r use b e ha vio r

Without adaptation de mand inc r e ase s

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SLIDE 24

Wate r E ne r gy E ffic ie nc y Wate r E ne r gy E ffic ie nc y

F uture o f SCV Wa te r Ca rb o n Ne utra l

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SLIDE 25

Wate r she d Wate r she d

 Wildfire s – so il e ro sio n  Pre c ipita tio n inte nsity

 Ca pture a nd use mo re diffic ult  Gre a te r flo o d risk a nd da ma g e s  Sto rmwa te r po lluta nt lo a ding

 E

c o syste m (wa rming )

 Na tive pla nts de a ths  I

nva sive spe c ie s

 I

nc re a se d thre a t to stre sse d a nd e nda ng e re d spe c ie s

 Wildfire s – so il e ro sio n  Pre c ipita tio n inte nsity

 Ca pture a nd use mo re diffic ult  Gre a te r flo o d risk a nd da ma g e s  Sto rmwa te r po lluta nt lo a ding

 E

c o syste m (wa rming )

 Na tive pla nts de a ths  I

nva sive spe c ie s

 I

nc re a se d thre a t to stre sse d a nd e nda ng e re d spe c ie s

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SLIDE 26

Wate r Quality Wate r Quality

  • Alg a e b lo o ms
  • Wa te r tre a tme nt pro c e sse s

ma y ne e d to c ha ng e

  • Wa rme r wa te r ho lds mo re

disso lve d ma te ria l

  • Alg a e b lo o ms
  • Wa te r tre a tme nt pro c e sse s

ma y ne e d to c ha ng e

  • Wa rme r wa te r ho lds mo re

disso lve d ma te ria l

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SLIDE 27

Climate Change Vulne r ability Climate Change Vulne r ability

  • 1. E

xpo sure re la te d to c lima te c ha ng e

  • 2. Po pula tio n se nsitivity
  • 3. Ada ptive c a pa c ity
  • 1. E

xpo sure re la te d to c lima te c ha ng e

  • 2. Po pula tio n se nsitivity
  • 3. Ada ptive c a pa c ity
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SLIDE 28

Adaptation Str ate gie s Adaptation Str ate gie s

  • 1. Ca pture wa te r in we t pe rio ds
  • 2. I

nc re a se lo c a l sto ra g e wa te r

  • 3. Sto rmwa te r c a pture
  • 4. Re c yc ling
  • 5. Upda ting infra struc ture
  • 6. I

mpro ve pub lic c o mmunic a tio n

  • 7. I

nc re a se wa te r e ffic ie nc y a nd c o nse rva tio n

  • 1. Ca pture wa te r in we t pe rio ds
  • 2. I

nc re a se lo c a l sto ra g e wa te r

  • 3. Sto rmwa te r c a pture
  • 4. Re c yc ling
  • 5. Upda ting infra struc ture
  • 6. I

mpro ve pub lic c o mmunic a tio n

  • 7. I

nc re a se wa te r e ffic ie nc y a nd c o nse rva tio n

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SLIDE 29

Climate and R e gulator y Vulne r ability Climate and R e gulator y Vulne r ability

Sc e na rio C

  • Re duc e d Alluvia l a nd Sa ug us

supplie s

  • RRB Ba nk a t 10 T

AF Re c o ve ry

  • No Ne wha ll L

a nd Se mitro pic Ba nk Supplie s

  • 2035 Clima te Cha ng e

Assumptio ns (SWP)

  • Re stric tive De lta Ope ra tio ns

(SWP)

  • No Wa te r F

ix Sc e na rio C

  • Re duc e d Alluvia l a nd Sa ug us

supplie s

  • RRB Ba nk a t 10 T

AF Re c o ve ry

  • No Ne wha ll L

a nd Se mitro pic Ba nk Supplie s

  • 2035 Clima te Cha ng e

Assumptio ns (SWP)

  • Re stric tive De lta Ope ra tio ns

(SWP)

  • No Wa te r F

ix

Pho to b y T ho ma s Wa spe r

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SLIDE 30

Supplie s Without Adaptation Supplie s Without Adaptation

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SLIDE 31

Adaptation Me asur e s Adaptation Me asur e s

Ac tio ns pro po se d to re a c h 95% re lia b ility g o a l:

  • E

xisting Ro se da le -Rio Bra vo Ba nking Pro g ra m

  • I

nc re a se ta ke c a pa c ity to 20,000 AF Y

  • By 2035
  • Ne w Sa ug us sto ra g e a nd re c o ve ry

pro g ra m

  • I

nje c tio n c a pa c ity o f 5,000 AF Y

  • Re c o ve ry c a pa c ity o f 10,000 AF

Y

  • By 2046

Ac tio ns pro po se d to re a c h 95% re lia b ility g o a l:

  • E

xisting Ro se da le -Rio Bra vo Ba nking Pro g ra m

  • I

nc re a se ta ke c a pa c ity to 20,000 AF Y

  • By 2035
  • Ne w Sa ug us sto ra g e a nd re c o ve ry

pro g ra m

  • I

nje c tio n c a pa c ity o f 5,000 AF Y

  • Re c o ve ry c a pa c ity o f 10,000 AF

Y

  • By 2046
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SLIDE 32

R e liability of Sc e nar ios with Sc e nar io C Pr

  • pose d Ac tions

R e liability of Sc e nar ios with Sc e nar io C Pr

  • pose d Ac tions
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SLIDE 33

Additional Adaptation Unde r Inve stigation Additional Adaptation Unde r Inve stigation

  • Alluvium Re c ha rg e
  • Ne w Sta te Wa te r

Co nse rva tio n/ E ffic ie nc y Sta nda rds

  • Sto rmwa te r Ca pture
  • Re c yc le d Wa te r
  • Alluvium Re c ha rg e
  • Ne w Sta te Wa te r

Co nse rva tio n/ E ffic ie nc y Sta nda rds

  • Sto rmwa te r Ca pture
  • Re c yc le d Wa te r
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SLIDE 34

Conc lusion Conc lusion

Co ntinue to inte g ra te c lima te c ha ng e into e xisting pla nning a nd de c isio n-ma king pro c e sse s tha t tra ditio na lly e xc lude d c lima te c ha ng e c o nside ra tio ns. Co ntinue to inte g ra te c lima te c ha ng e into e xisting pla nning a nd de c isio n-ma king pro c e sse s tha t tra ditio na lly e xc lude d c lima te c ha ng e c o nside ra tio ns.