Building MEPDG PDG Climate Files Dr Michael H el Heitzman PE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Building MEPDG

Dr Michael H NCAT, Aubur

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

NCAT, Aubur Dr Gene Climate Science Program

PDG Climate Files

el Heitzman PE burn University burn University ene Takle ram, Iowa State University

In this prese

Why is climate input import Building historic climate file Building future climate files

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

Impact on predicted pavem

resentation….

portant files files vement performance

Pavement Desi

P CTB Modulus Each load application

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

Time, ye

2 4

Design Variables

Traffic PCC Modulus HMA Modulus

, years

Granular Base Modulus Subgrade Modulus

8 6

Modulus

Permenant Deformation: Total Rutting 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 um Rutting (inch) Ac Rutting Design Value = 0.25"

90% Relia 90% Relia Design Limit Design Limit

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 18 36 54 72 90 108 126 Pavement age, month Maximum

Subg Subg

g in Pavement Layers (inch)

SubTotalAC SubTotalGB SubTotalSG Total Rutting

Predicted Predicted Rutting Rutting

Reliability Reliability Total Total

144 162 180 198

Total Rutting TotalRutReliability

HMA HMA ubgrade ubgrade

• Aggr. Base
• Aggr. Base

Only 12 MEPDG climate files in M

4 sites with 5-6 years of clim 8 with 8-10 years of climate Starting with mid 1990s

in Mississippi climate data (very limited) ate data (limited)

Ames Tempera

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

perature Trends

Iowa Averages a

Decade Avg High A 1970s 58.9

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

1970s 58.9 1980s 59.6 1990s 58.4

What 10-year period for pavement perform

es and Extremes

Avg Low 100°+ events

(days / weather station)

37.4 6 37.4 6 38.1 21 38.3 2

• d do you want to use
• rmance prediction?

Developm Climate Data for the M

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

Build complete 40-year hist

county measurements

Build 40-year future climate

regional models

lopment of ata Input Files he MEPDG

historic climate files from ate files from global and

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

ASOS/AWOS OS COOP

Ana Gri

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

Neighbor Interpolation

nalysis Grid Grid Node

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

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Complete Historic Files

40-year files (1970-2010) Each county in the State (82

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

Files

(82)

Mississippi County Weather Locations 32.5 33 33.5 34 34.5 35 35.5 latitude

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30 30.5 31 31.5 32 32.5

• 92
• 91.5
• 91
• 90.5
• 90
• 89.5
• 89
• 88.5
• 88

longitude lat

How should future cl

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

climate files be built?

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GLOBAL

35,000 sq-mi patte Includes: solar ra house gasses cha Frequency: 6 hou

REGIONA

1200 sq-mi patte Includes: region

Contemporary Scenario

(decade of 1990s)

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University Monthly Climate “DELTA Temperature DELTA = Future Scenari Precipitation DELTA = Future Scenari Includes: region features and clim Frequency: 3 m

Future Scenario

(decade of 2040s)

AL MODEL

attern radiation & green changes

• urs over 10 years

NAL MODEL

attern ional geographic

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LTAs” (for 50-year period) ario – Contemporary Scenario ario / Contemporary Scenario ional geographic climate patterns minutes

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

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Average Month

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

thly Temperature

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Temperature

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

re Distribution

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Average Month

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

nthly Precipitation

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JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JU T [C] 1.3 1.5 3.2 2.4 2.7 1. P [%]

• 21
• 13

40 14 39 1

50-year D

1970-2010 Historic Climate

JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1.9 2.8 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.4 13

• 17

17 68

• 20

37

• 11

r DELTA’s

DELTA ( per 2010-2050 Virtual Climate ( per month)

What is the imp accurate clim

9.3-in JPCP 20 ft joint spacing tied PCC shoulder 5.7-in lime stab base A-2-4 subgrade 12.5-in H AC-30 A-6 subg

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

A-2-4 subgrade

e impact of more e climate files?

4.5-in HMA, AC-30 3.0-in AC perm base 12-in A-2-4 base in HMA ubgrade

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8-in lime stab subgrade A-6 subgrade

Complete Historic Files

40-year files (1970-2010) Each county in the State (82

Critical for calibration

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

1985-2000 pavement

5-yr MEPDG climate

1995-2000 climate (3x)

HISTORIC climate

1985-2000 climate

Files

(82)

Mississippi County Weather Locations 32.5 33 33.5 34 34.5 35 35.5 latitude

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30 30.5 31 31.5 32 32.5

• 92
• 91.5
• 91
• 90.5
• 90
• 89.5
• 89
• 88.5
• 88

longitude lat

40-year climate files each climate region (10)

Critical for predicting performan

Complete Future File

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

Critical for predicting performan 2010-2030 design

5-yr MEPDG climate

1995-2000 climate (4x)

FUTURE climate

2010-2030 virtual climate ance

Files

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ance

PVMT TYPE PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE CLIMATE COMPARISON PCC FAULT MEDPG-Historic MEPDG-Virtual Historic-Virtual PCC RIDE MEDPG-Historic MEPDG-Virtual Historic-Virtual HMA1 RUTTING MEDPG-Historic MEPDG-Virtual Historic-Virtual

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

Historic-Virtual HMA1 RIDE MEDPG-Historic MEPDG-Virtual Historic-Virtual HMA2 RUTTING MEDPG-Historic MEPDG-Virtual Historic-Virtual HMA2 RIDE MEDPG-Historic MEPDG-Virtual Historic-Virtual Mississippi Climate Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 S S S S S S S S S

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S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S

Faulting (M-H)

0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045 0.05 n g ( in )

9.3-in J

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

• 0.01
• 0.005

0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Zones F a u lt in g

Faulting (H-V)

0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045 0.05 g ( in )

in JPCP

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• 0.01
• 0.005

1E-17 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Zones F a u lt in g

Rutting (M-H)

0.15 0.2 0.25 g ( in )

12.5-in

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

• 0.05

0.05 0.1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Zones R u t t in g

Rutting (H-V)

0.15 0.2 0.25 n g ( in )

in HMA

25 M-V Zone(1-10),

• 0.05

0.05 0.1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Zones R u t t in g

Rutting (M-H)

0.15 0.2 0.25 g ( in )

4.5-in H

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

• 0.05

0.05 0.1 0.15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Zones R u t t in g (

Rutting (H-V)

0.15 0.2 0.25 g ( in )

in HMA

26 M-V Zone(1-10),

• 0.05

0.05 0.1 0.15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Zones R u t t in g (

Zone 4 Ruttin

0.8 1 1.2

nches)

MEPDG

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

0.2 0.4 0.6 1 61 121 181

tim rutting (inc

ting Thin HMA

HIST VIRT

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241 301 361 421

time (months)

Historic v MEPDG (W

70 80 90 100 110 Max Temp MAX-historical MAX-MEP

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

30 40 50 60 70 10 20 30 40 month (MEPDG 8/99 Monthly M

(Wash Co - thin HMA)

EPDG AVG-Historical AVG-MEPDG

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40 50 60 70 80 90 9 - 6/05)(Historical 8/70 - 12/76)

Current MEPDG 10-year climate fi pavement performance predictio

The fix is accurate and impro

Future climate may be different fro pavement performance predictio

There are accepted scientific

files

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

files may adversely impact ctions roves MEPDG model calibration from historic climate and change ctions fic models to build future climate

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Building MEPDG

• Dr. Michael H

NCAT, Auburn mah0016@a

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Climate Science Program Iowa State University

• Dr. Gene

Climate Science Program gstakle@ia

DG Climate Files

el Heitzman, PE burn University 6@auburn.edu

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ene Takle ram, Iowa State University @iastate.edu