Bond Steering Committee Meeting 2: Tuesday, May 30, 2017 Agenda - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Bond Steering Committee

Meeting 2: Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Agenda

• Welcome, Meeting 1 Recap & Agenda Review
• Select Committee Chairpersons
• Define Consensus
• Demographic Projections
• How School Finance Works & EMS ISD

Financial Overview

• Bonding Capacity
• Closing

EMSISDSteeringCommittee.com

Committee Website

Access from District Home Page

EMSISD.com Link under Site Shortcuts

Committee Chairpersons

Role of Committee Chairpersons

• Help lead each committee meeting and make adjustment to

agendas, when needed.

• Facilitate large group discussions on all information provided.
• Ensure all ideas and/or positions of committee members are

heard and given equal time.

• Maintain group focus and guide committee to its goals.
• Give formal presentation to Board of Education with the

committee’s final recommendations.

Define Consensus

Consensus

• Consensus is defined by Merriam-Webster as:

– 1 a: a general agreement – 1 b: the judgment arrived at by most of those concerned – 2: group solidarity in sentiment and belief; concerned with the process of deliberating and finalizing a decision

• Goal is to agree on definition and then, once

recommendation goes forward, for everyone to be able to support.

Consensus

What is this Committee’s Definition of Consensus? Options:

• Unanimous agreement
• Unanimous consent (can “live with it”)
• Unanimous agreement minus one or two votes
• Unanimous consent minus one or two votes
• Super majority thresholds (90%, 80%, 75%, two-thirds,

and 60% are common)

• Simple majority

Demographic Projections

Clete Welch, Chief Operations Officer

Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Eagle Mountain- Saginaw Independent School District

Quarterly Report 1Q17

Economic Conditions – DFW Area

(March 2017)

2

Unemployment Rate

Job Growth

3.1%

109,035 new jobs National rate 1.2%

Year to Date Home Sales

5.1%

21,575YTD home sales in DFW

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

0.4%

U.S. 4.6% Texas 5.0% DFW MSA 4.3% Fort Worth 4.5%

DFW New Home Ranking Report

ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 1Q17

3

* Based on additional Templeton Demographics housing research

Source: Metrostudy

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,651 2,592 3,714 7,467 2 Prosper ISD 2,676 2,215 4,610 27,888 3 Denton ISD 1,894 2,053 2,544 19,756 4 Northwest ISD 1,845 1,449 1,776 23,198 5 Lewisville ISD 1,263 1,347 1,852 4,243 6 Dallas ISD 1,713 1,337 2,252 5,917 7 LiBle Elm ISD 947 1,037 1,745 3,839 8 Rockwall ISD 968 914 1,893 7,901 9 Eagle Mt.-Saginaw ISD 771 820 1,658 20,652* 10 Crowley ISD 622 782 811 9,056 11 Wylie ISD 754 780 1,391 4,017 12 McKinney ISD 857 769 1,552 6,818 13 Keller ISD 751 750 881 1,669 14 Mansfield ISD 739 716 874 6,528 15 Forney ISD 767 598 1,073 14,067 16 Allen ISD 597 563 1,064 1,622 17 Coppell ISD 436 486 554 478 18 Midlothian ISD 559 472 1,339 19,758 19 Garland ISD 581 467 516 3,925 20 Waxahachie ISD 476 463 921 9,360

New HousingActivity

4

• The district started more than 170 new homes in 1Q17 for the 4th year in a row
• 2Q starts are expected to rise due to large lot deliveries in 1Q17
• The district has more than 220 homes currently under construction
• New home inventory is at 5 month’s supply

Eagle Mountain- Saginaw ISD

300 250 200 150 100 50 350 Starts Closings Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q 125 112 205 173 177 178 2Q 148 253 209 268 223 3Q 196 193 210 293 243 4Q 168 176 188 207 125 Total 637 734 812 941 768 178 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q 138 144 181 154 189 154 2Q 141 199 227 220 227 3Q 164 171 214 269 265 4Q 150 195 200 224 175 Total 593 709 822 867 856 154

15

Annual Closing Distribution 1Q17

Top 10 Subdivisions - 1Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Annual Closings Quarter Closings VDL Future 1 Santa Fe Trails (Ft Worth N) 177 3 1 2 Stone CreekRanch 88 8 70 509 3 Bar CRanch 83 29 55 816 4 Saginaw Springs 77 23 17 5 Lake Vista Ranch Addi[on 64 19 31 372 6 Marine Creek Ranch (Parkview) 56 11 106 744 7 Creekwood Addi[on 45 5 127 8 Dominion, The (Saginaw) 37 12 26 9 Marine Creek Ranch (Greenfield) 29 2 2 10 Villages of Eagle Mountain 28 154 309 TOTALS 684 112 589 2,750

16

VDLDistribution

Elementary Zone VDL COMANCHE SPRINGS

478

EAGLE MOUNTAIN

334

ELKINS

213

LAKE POINTE

153

PARKVIEW

147

CHISHOLMRIDGE

88

DOZIER

76

BRYSON

73

NORTHBROOK

41

WILLOWCREEK 35 GREENFIELD

20

GILILLAND HIGH COUNTRY REMINGTON POINT SAGINAW TOTAL

1,658

17

Futures Distribution

District Housing Overview by Elem Zone

Elementary Zone Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings Inventory VDL Future BRYSON

60 1 77 23 26 73 196

CHISHOLM RIDGE

99 21 177 3 24 88 905

COMANCHE SPRINGS

137 19 154 47 57 478 2,684

DOZIER

89 20 94 1 1 30 76 1,236

EAGLE MOUNTAIN

31 9 34 6 22 334 9,764

ELKINS

98 16 92 19 30 213 1,014

GILILLAND GREENFIELD

16 30 2 4 20 192

HIGH COUNTRY

2 2 2 561

LAKE POINTE

43 5 45 1 1 28 153 3,232

NORTHBROOK

41

PARKVIEW

132 77 56 1 1 93 147 744

REMINGTON POINT SAGINAW

2 1 1

WILLOW CREEK 62 10 58 21 23 35 124 GRAND TOTAL 771 178 820 154 340 1,658 20,652

Highest actvity in the category Second highest actvity in the category Third highest actvity in the category

19

Multi-Family Housing Overview

• Within EMS ISD there are

currently 452 MF units under construction

• The units are affordable tax

credit units and will begin leasing summer of 2018 in Northbrook and Bryson Elementary zones

Ten Year Forecast

By Elementary Campus

*Green box = within 5% of capacity *Yellow box = over capacity

• By 2018, two elementary campuses may be nearing full capacity
• By 2019, two elementary campuses may be over capacity, and four

campuses will be nearing capacity

• Total elementary enrollment may top 10,000 students by 2020

Current

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus

Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 HAFLEY DEVELOPMENT CENTER 300 394 394 394 394 394 394 394 394 394 394 394 BRYSON ELEMENTARY 675 558 570 582 645 685 696 700 704 710 715 723 CHISHOLM RIDGE ELEMENTARY 803 721 754 758 781 821 857 885 902 928 947 968 COMANCHE SPRINGS ELEMENTARY 753 595 626 687 773 849 940 1,037 1,118 1,189 1,246 1,299 DOZIER ELEMENTARY 803 545 580 605 639 674 719 767 810 836 849 877 EAGLE MOUNTAIN ELEMENTARY 758 605 626 652 667 685 706 765 817 869 912 956 ELKINS ELEMENTARY 605 321 317 341 371 405 430 463 490 514 550 586 GILILLAND ELMENTARY 734 505 487 493 488 503 502 511 513 510 510 508 GREENFIELD ELEMENTARY 803 767 749 742 730 731 750 757 766 778 787 797 HIGH COUNTRY ELEMENTARY 745 582 584 572 575 599 619 615 610 607 611 619 LAKE POINTE ELEMENTARY 779 724 740 745 766 804 872 928 991 1,045 1,083 1,128 NORTHBROOK ELEMENTARY 706 624 632 614 742 815 797 790 791 818 832 850 PARKVIEW ELEMENTARY 779 526 513 526 555 589 630 681 725 757 793 828 REMINGTON POINT ELEMENTARY 758 586 574 572 556 563 579 597 611 606 603 606 SAGINAW ELEMENTARY 519 427 423 412 416 410 421 420 423 422 424 428 WILLOW CREEK ELEMENTARY 727 708 715 716 726 729 733 744 754 760 762 760 ELEMENTARY TOTALS 11,247 9,188 9,284 9,411 9,824 10,256 10,645 11,054 11,419 11,743 12,018 12,327 Elementary Percent Change 0.86% 1.04% 1.37% 4.39% 4.40% 3.79% 3.84% 3.30% 2.84% 2.34% 2.57% Elementary Absolute Change 78 96 127 413 432 389 409 365 324 275 309

20 Projections do not reflect possible charter impact

Ten Year Forecast

By Middle School & High School Campus

*Green box = within 5% of capacity *Yellow box = over capacity

• This fall, Willkie Middle School may be over stated capacity
• By 2019, two middle schools may be over stated capacity and two

campuses may be nearing capacity

Current

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus

Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 CREEKVIEW MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,078 879 921 988 1,027 1,071 1,099 1,109 1,117 1,152 1,254 1,342 HIGHLAND MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,050 862 870 913 936 897 832 795 874 929 958 950 PRAIRIE VISTA MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,002 883 893 936 991 1,039 1,080 1,141 1,204 1,256 1,312 1,372 WAYSIDE MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,002 952 937 979 1,026 1,059 1,099 1,096 1,126 1,166 1,238 1,308 WILLKIE MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,002 963 1,010 1,105 1,205 1,220 1,189 1,139 1,133 1,177 1,234 1,273 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 5,134 4,539 4,631 4,921 5,185 5,286 5,299 5,280 5,454 5,680 5,996 6,245 Middle School Percent Change 1.91% 2.03% 6.26% 5.36% 1.95% 0.25%

• 0.36%

3.30% 4.14% 5.56% 4.15% Middle School Absolute Change 85 92 290 264 101 13

• 19

174 226 316 249 BOSWELL HIGH SCHOOL 1,812 1,897 1,921 2,003 2,040 2,116 2,269 2,346 2,423 2,474 2,496 SAGINAW HIGH SCHOOL 1,915 1,989 2,042 2,076 2,129 2,177 2,229 2,222 2,237 2,332 2,439 CHISHOLM TRAIL HIGH SCHOOL 2,043 2,172 2,220 2,304 2,445 2,578 2,754 2,893 2,930 2,920 2,922 WATSON HIGH SCHOOL 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 HIGH SCHOOLTOTALS 5,861 6,150 6,273 6,474 6,705 6,962 7,343 7,551 7,681 7,817 7,949 High School Percent Change 4.47% 4.93% 2.01% 3.19% 3.57% 3.84% 5.47% 2.84% 1.71% 1.78% 1.68% High School Absolute Change 251 289 124 200 231 258 381 209 129 137 132 TARRANT COUNTY JJAEP 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 ALTERNATIVE DISCIPLINE SCHOOL 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 ALTERNATIVE SCHOOL TOTALS 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 DISTRICT TOTALS 19,632 20,109 20,649 21,527 22,291 22,950 23,721 24,468 25,148 25,875 26,565 District Percent Change 2.23% 2.43% 2.69% 4.25% 3.55% 2.96% 3.36% 3.15% 2.78% 2.89% 2.67% District Absolute Change 429 477 541 877 764 660 771 748 679 728 690

21 Projections do not reflect possible charter impact

Summary

• Fort Worth’s unemployment rate is currently at 4.5%.
• Copper Creek, La Frontera, Talon Hill and Las Ventanas and

Ridgeview Farms have delivered more than 530 lots in 1Q17.

• Sante Fe Trails and Marine Creek Ranch accounted for roughly
• ne-third of all district annual closings.
• EMS ISD can expect some enrollment impact from IL of Texas.
• EMS ISD can expect an increase of approximately 3,300 students

during the next 5 years.

• 2021/22 enrollment projection: 22,950 students
• EMS ISD is projected to enroll more than 26,500 students for the

2026/27 school year.

www.tdemographics.com

12

Eagle Mountain Lake Pointe Bryson Wayside Boswell Elkins

Future Elem #17

(land negotiation in progress) Site & School 2021 / 2008 Bond

Creekview Dozier Greenfield Parkview Willkie Chisholm Trail

Remington Point

Saginaw

Future Elem. #18 (land purchased)

School 2023

2008 Bond Middle School #6 (land purchased) Opening 2019 2008 Bond

Northbrook Gililland

Future Elem. #19 (land purchased) school future bond Middle School #7 (land purchased) school future bond

Saginaw Chisholm Ridge

Future Elem. #16

(land negotiation in progress) site & school 2020 2006 Bond

High Country Highland

Comanche Springs Future Elem. #20 (land purchased)

school future bond

Future Elem. #21 (need site) site & school future bond

Prairie Vista High School #4

(land purchased) school future bond 3 HS’s over capacity in 2024 Future Elem. #22 (need site) site & school future bond Future Elem. #23 (need site) site & school future bond Future Elem. #24 (need site) site & school future bond Middle School #8 (land purchased) school future bond

Willow Creek Land Needs 4 – Future Elementary 2 – in progress

Attendance Boundary Feeder Patterns

How School Finance Works & EMS ISD Financial Overview

Jim Schiele, Chief Financial Officer

A school district’s budget is generated from three sources:

• Federal funding
• State funding
• Local tax effort

FEDERAL

LOCAL STATE

School Finance: The Big Picture

• Appropriated for special programs or

to provide services to a specific group of students

• Cannot be used to replace state or

local dollars to fund a program

• About half of federal funds go directly

to school districts

• The remainder goes to the state or to

regional service centers

FEDERAL

Federal Funding

FEDERAL

Foundation School Program

• Provides state funding to school districts
• Administered by TEA
• Meant to ensure that all school districts,

regardless of property wealth, receive "substantially equal access to similar revenue per student at similar tax effort, considering all state and local tax revenues of districts after acknowledging all legitimate student and district cost differences.”

FEDERAL

STATE

State Funding

Foundation School Program

• Instructional Facilities Allotment

(IFA)

• Local Revenue must be below $350,000

per ADA for the District to receive IFA

• Existing Debt Allotment (EDA)
• Currently, the guaranteed yield for EDA

provides $35 per student in average daily attendance (ADA) per penny of tax effort.

FEDERAL

STATE STATE

State Funding

State funding system is COMPLICATED The simplest explanation:

• Each district receives different level of funding
• Basic funding levels are primarily established

by looking at “wealth per student”

• Tax base divided by number of students
• Lower “wealth per student” = more state

funding

• Higher “wealth per student” = less state

funding

FEDERAL

STATE STATE

State Funding

• Generated from property taxes (not

sales taxes)

• Called “ad valorem” taxes
• Each year, a school district adopts

two tax rates:

• Maintenance & Operations (M&O)
• Interest & Sinking (I&S)

FEDERAL

LOCAL

Local Tax Effort

Funds the day-to-day maintenance and operations of the district

• Salaries (for teachers and other staff)
• Facility repairs and maintenance
• Bus repairs, maintenance and fuel
• Food services
• School supplies and materials
• Utilities (electricity, water, etc.)

FEDERAL

LOCAL For the average citizen this is similar to:

✓ House repairs ✓ Car fuel ✓ Routine services ✓ Groceries ✓ Cleaning supplies ✓ Utilities

Maintenance & Operations (M&O) Tax

Funds debt repayment for “big ticket” items

• New building construction
• Existing building renovations
• Land purchases
• Program-specific equipment
• Technology
• School buses

FEDERAL

LOCAL For the average citizen this is similar to:

✓ New home purchase ✓ House renovations ✓ Land for a home ✓ New appliances ✓ New home computer ✓ New car

Interest & Sinking (I&S) Tax Rate

The Annual District Budget is passed by the School Board of Trustees. 80-90 percent of a district’s M&O budget pays for salaries, fuels and utilities.

M&O I&S

I&S funds may only be used to repay debt. They may not be used for salaries, utilities or other day- to-day expenses.

Local Tax Effort

Capped at $1.04 per $100

• f property value

If a district wants to raise the rate beyond that, it can only go as high as $1.17 but must receive voter approval in a Tax Ratification Election.

Capped at $0.50 per $100

• f property value

Every cent requires voter approval in a Bond Election.

M&O I&S

Local Tax Effort

$1.17

M&O TAX RATE

$0.37

I&S TAX RATE

$1.54

EMS ISD TOTAL TAX RATE

per $100

• f property value

EMS ISD Tax Rate

Taxable Assessed Valuations

April May June July Sept $7,348,854,887 $7,366,227,603 $7,203,292,265 $7,505,667,224 $7,517,596,215 2.30% 2.05% 4.36% 0.16% $8,364,847,444 $8,486,817,871

• 100.00%
• 100.00%

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! 13.83% 15.21%

• 100.00%
• 100.00%
• 100.00%

Additional Revenue Generated $8,556,917,568 $8,661,213,493 $8,839,192,770 13.83% 15.21% $1,039,321,353 $1,143,617,278 $1,321,596,555 Summer 2018 $4,889,907.25 $9,444,174,633 $9,649,406,371 $9,847,692,024 10.37% 11.41% $887,257,065 $988,192,879 $1,008,499,254 Summer 2019 $3,731,447.24 $10,080,690,866 $10,365,017,242 $10,578,007,983 6.74% 7.42% $636,516,233 $715,610,871 $730,315,959 Summer 2020 $2,702,169.05 $10,590,252,867 $10,941,528,278 $11,166,365,744 5.05% 5.56% $509,562,002 $576,511,036 $588,357,761 Summer 2021 $2,176,923.72

Financial Overview

• Review of presentation from our financial

advisors – Bank of Texas

Bonding Capacity

Jim Schiele, Chief Financial Officer

Issuance Schedule

Thank You! Questions?

Next Meeting: Monday, June 13, 2017 6:00 p.m. Board Room