B EAUFORT C OUNTY S CHOOLS E NROLLMENT F ORECASTS McKibben Demographic Research, LLC March 6, 2019 Jerome McKibben, Ph.D. Rock Hill, SC j.mckibben@mckibbendemographics.com 978-501-7069 McKibben Demographics
Beaufort County Forecast Assumptions 1. The national, state or regional economy does not go into deep recession at any time during the 10 years of the forecasts; (Deep recession is defined as four consecutive quarters where the GDP contracts greater than 1% per quarter) 2. Interest rates have come off their historic low and will not fluctuate more than one percentage point in the short term; the interest rate for a 30 year fixed home mortgage stays between 5.0 and 6.0%; 3. The rate of mortgage approval stays at 1999-2003 levels and lenders do not return to “sub-prime” mortgage practices; 4. There are no additional restrictions placed on home mortgage lenders or additional bankruptcies of major credit providers; 5. The rate of housing foreclosures does not exceed 125% of the 2005-2007 average of Beaufort County for any year in the forecasts; 6. All currently planned, platted, and permitted housing developments are built out and completed by 2027. All housing units constructed are occupied by 2028; 7. The unemployment rates for the Savannah Metropolitan Area will remain below 6.0% for the 10 years of the forecasts; 8. The state of South Carolina does not change any of its current laws regarding Charter Schools, school vouchers or inter district transfer; McKibben Demographics
Beaufort County Forecast Assumptions, cont’d 9. The rate of students transferring into and out of the Beaufort County School District will remain at the 2018-19 level for the next 10 years; 10. The inflation rate for gasoline will stay below 5% per year for the 10 years of the forecasts; 11. The rate of intra district student transfers (students moving between attendance areas within the district) in the Beaufort County School District will remain at the 2018-19 level for the next 10 years; 12. There will be no building moratorium within the district; 13. Businesses within the district and the Beaufort County School District area will remain viable; 14. The area is not affected by any kind of natural disaster anytime in the next 10 years; 15. The number of existing home sales in the district that are a result of “distress sales” (homes worth less than the current mortgage value) will not exceed 20% of total homes sales in the district for any given year; 16. Housing turnover rates (sale of existing non-retirement homes in the district) will remain at their current levels. The majority of existing home sales are made by home owners over the age of 60; 17. Private school and home school attendance rates will remain constant; 18. The rate of foreclosures for commercial property remains at the 2004-2008 average for Beaufort County. McKibben Demographics
Beaufort County Total Population 2010 Census 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 7,000 3,500 0 3,500 7,000 Males Females McKibben Demographics
Broad River Elementary 2010 Census 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 600 300 0 300 600 Males Females McKibben Demographics
Coosa Elementary 2010 Census 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 600 300 0 300 600 Males Females McKibben Demographics
Okatie Elementary 2010 Census 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 2,400 1,200 0 1,200 2,400 Males Females McKibben Demographics
Table 2: Household Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census Persons Per HH w/ Pop Under 18 % HH w/ Pop Under 18 Total Households Household Population Household Beaufort ES 733 28.5% 2,576 5,704 2.21 Bluffton ES 1,679 47.9% 3,505 10,467 2.99 Broad River ES 978 35.6% 2,751 7,062 2.57 Coosa ES 1,198 40.1% 2,984 7,905 2.65 Hilton Head Schools 3,531 19.6% 18,046 40,022 2.22 Lady's Island ES 618 34.2% 1,807 4,657 2.58 MC Riley ES 1,122 40.0% 2,805 7,870 2.81 Mossy Oaks ES 742 30.6% 2,427 5,455 2.25 Okatie ES 883 9.3% 9,449 19,000 2.01 On Bases 1,139 72.4% 1,574 5,127 3.26 Port Royal ES 430 29.9% 1,440 3,100 2.15 Pritchardville ES 495 39.4% 1,256 3,495 2.78 Red Cedar ES 819 37.8% 2,169 5,903 2.72 River Ridge Ac 540 45.7% 1,183 3,309 2.80 Robert Smalls Intl Ac 557 37.1% 1,499 3,810 2.54 Shanklin ES 705 40.0% 1,765 4,900 2.78 St Helena ES 1,013 25.3% 4,011 9,459 2.36 Whale Branch ES 1,299 35.3% 3,677 9,685 2.63 District Total 18,481 28.5% 64,923 156,928 2.42 McKibben Demographics
Table 3: Householder Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census Percentage of Percentage of Householders Percentage of Householders who own aged 35-54 Householders aged 65+ homes Beaufort ES 31.3% 27.2% 52.6% Bluffton ES 45.1% 10.8% 65.0% Broad River ES 33.4% 16.1% 60.0% Coosa ES 38.8% 22.2% 77.2% Hilton Head Schools 26.9% 41.6% 74.2% Lady's Island ES 38.4% 25.1% 77.1% MC Riley ES 43.3% 11.2% 51.4% Mossy Oaks ES 30.4% 26.7% 56.2% Okatie ES 12.1% 62.5% 91.7% On Bases 17.2% 0.4% 1.1% Port Royal ES 30.0% 16.7% 35.0% Pritchardville ES 43.8% 13.3% 83.0% Red Cedar ES 39.4% 18.7% 68.6% River Ridge Ac 48.7% 9.8% 71.9% Robert Smalls Intl Ac 35.6% 15.0% 54.6% Shanklin ES 38.2% 15.8% 59.0% St Helena ES 30.7% 36.9% 83.5% Whale Branch ES 37.9% 22.4% 78.9% District Total 30.2% 32.0% 70.6% McKibben Demographics
Table 4: Percentage of Households that are Single Person Households and Single Person Households that are over age 65 by Elementary Area , 2010 Census Percentage of Single Person Percentage of Single Person Households Households and are 65+ Beaufort ES 36.7% 14.7% Bluffton ES 16.1% 2.8% Broad River ES 24.2% 6.1% Coosa ES 18.3% 6.9% Hilton Head Schools 27.7% 13.8% Lady's Island ES 21.3% 7.8% MC Riley ES 22.0% 4.0% Mossy Oaks ES 34.2% 13.7% Okatie ES 22.1% 15.9% On Bases 5.5% 0.3% Port Royal ES 35.3% 8.9% Pritchardville ES 15.1% 2.8% Red Cedar ES 19.7% 5.9% River Ridge Ac 16.7% 2.8% Robert Smalls Intl Ac 24.6% 6.5% Shanklin ES 20.9% 5.2% St Helena ES 27.0% 11.2% Whale Branch ES 25.3% 8.3% District Total 24.3% 10.3% McKibben Demographics
Where PK-5th Students Live ) 5 - K P ( c s A n l o I o l d t S S S h n E n E S E S c c I e S E A h t E S e S s c d t S l S c t d E l E i r n s l e l S r A S E a E n d S e a k i t E a v r g E E l m a s e v e a S a a S l y d d a r i h , i H s O s y n t t E d n D n R E e e r i S B c u r I o l e R i e o o s a l t O n s i y e t e f d a a R h C r k l a f t ' R i o u s o y s B r n e l m f a t c e e a e f s a t H o t d d b t a u o C o r t v a h v o l k n i u n e i a o e o h l r M M r i W i C H O O t O U B B B L P P R R R S S L 354 694 564 455 1894 295 752 374 579 14 184 1018 573 735 273 411 480 623 2 16 1309 Beaufort Elementary School 477 325 21 20 18 15 2 8 1 11 12 10 33 1 151 Bluffton Elementary School 686 577 1 5 22 28 1 21 14 14 2 1 109 Broad River Elementary School 522 10 2 453 3 3 1 3 1 20 9 6 10 1 68 Coosa Elementary School 494 5 5 413 3 47 5 1 2 1 8 4 81 Hilton Head Island Early Childhood Center 402 1 1 395 1 1 2 1 7 Hilton Head Island IB Elementary School 879 5 848 8 5 1 5 1 3 3 28 Where PK-5th Students Attend Hilton Head Island School for the Creative Arts 632 1 609 6 4 2 4 3 1 2 23 Lady's Island Elementary School 302 1 9 2 219 1 1 1 1 63 4 83 MC Riley Elementary School 749 15 2 6 649 9 19 25 19 1 2 2 98 Mossy Oaks Elementary School 420 6 3 26 7 4 2 341 1 8 9 6 4 3 79 Okatie Elementary School 597 1 14 3 3 6 5 1 482 48 11 19 4 115 Port Royal Elementary School 226 1 29 1 2 5 1 3 161 6 5 2 10 65 Pritchardville Elementary School 882 16 2 1 2 8 847 3 2 1 35 Red Cedar Elementary School 640 2 38 4 1 47 18 14 503 9 1 3 134 River Ridge Academy 794 22 1 12 21 60 11 664 1 2 128 Robert Smalls International Academy 252 10 3 2 1 210 20 1 3 2 42 Shanklin Elementary School 369 2 2 1 1 6 1 3 344 1 8 25 St Helena Elementary School 394 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 383 1 11 Whale Branch Elementary School 478 7 5 1 4 10 449 2 27 Whale Branch Middle School 95 1 2 2 88 2 Live in, Attend Out (PK-5) 1400 29 117 111 42 42 76 103 33 97 14 23 171 70 71 63 67 97 174 McKibben Demographics
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