SLIDE 1
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Building sensitive forecast models and common forecast assumptions
FINANCIAL FORECASTING IN PYTHON
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Building sensitive forecast models and common forecast assumptions - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Building sensitive forecast models and common forecast assumptions - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python FINANCIAL FORECASTING IN PYTHON Building sensitive forecast models and common forecast assumptions Victoria Clark CGMA Financial Analyst DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python Considerations when
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Assumptions
"Best guess" based on data available Set at the beginning of a forecast process Used to drive forecasting Can be directly controlled Can be indirectly controlled Outside control of company
SLIDE 4
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Different types of Assumptions
Probability Weighted Market sentiment Demand and supply
SLIDE 5
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Working with pairs in Python
Using Combined Lists
Outcome Probability (%) 1 30 2 20 3 50
- utcome_probability = ['1|0.3', '2|0.2', '3|0.5']
SLIDE 6
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Define a Python Function
Define a dependency or sensitivity formula Prevent duplication of work and errors
def assumption1() if marketsentiment = 0.3: sales + sales*0.1 else sales
SLIDE 7
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Let's practice!
FINANCIAL FORECASTING IN PYTHON
SLIDE 8
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Dependencies and sensitivity in financial forecasting
FINANCIAL FORECASTING IN PYTHON
Victoria Clark
CGMA Financial Analyst
SLIDE 9
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Explaining forecasting dependencies and sensitivities
Interlinked variables Changing one variable has a knock-
- n effect on other variables
SLIDE 10
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Working with dependencies and sensitivities in Python
Expect rush orders Increases delivery costs by 10%
if x = 0: x_costs + y_costs else x_costs if month = December: delivery_costs + delivery_costs*0.1 else delivery_costs
SLIDE 11
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Let's practice!
FINANCIAL FORECASTING IN PYTHON
SLIDE 12
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Working with variances in the forecast
FINANCIAL FORECASTING IN PYTHON
Victoria Clark
CGMA Financial Analyst
SLIDE 13
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
SLIDE 14
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
A gap analysis
SLIDE 15
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Gap analysis and alternative forecasts
rollingforecast1 = 1200 # First 6 months sales = 300 # The first dependency has 120 units dependency1 = 120 units = 30 expected_units = 45 # The adjusted dependency dependency2 = units + expected_units dependency 75
SLIDE 16
DataCamp Financial Forecasting in Python
Congratulations!
FINANCIAL FORECASTING IN PYTHON