ARISTOTLE a multi-hazard expert assessment project Alberto Michelini 1 , Gerhard Wotawa 2 , Delia Arnold-Arias 2 , Daniela Pantosti 1 and the Aristotle Team 1 ) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy 2 ) Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie und Geodynamik, Wien, Austria ARISTOTLE A ll R isk I ntegrated S ystem TO wards T rans - boundary ho L istic E arly - warning Pilot Project in the area of Early Warning System for natural disasters Contract n. ECHO/SER/2015/722144
Talk Structure - Objectives - Hazards - Partnership & project organization - Status, Service & Operation - Final remarks & Conclusions
ARISTOTLE’S Objectives To deliver world leading multi - hazard capability to the - Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) - has been designed to offer - a flexible and scalable system that can provide new hazard - related services to the ERCC and - to create a pool of experts in the field of Meteorology and Geophysics of Europe that can support the ERCC with regard to situation assessments in crisis situations .
ARISTOTLE’S Objectives In simple terms: Provide prompt scientific assessment of the situation to ERCC by 24*7 by a team of hazard experts through verbal interaction and written reports Emphasis on Exposure & Impact on people and on major primary and hazardous infrastructures and lifelines
Hazards - Earthquakes (with Tsunamis as secondary induced hazard ) - Volcano Eruptions (ashes and volcanic gases) - Severe Weather Events (including wind storms, major heat and cold waves, and severe precipitation) - Flooding - extendable to other natural hazards (including secondary hazards)
Hazards
ERCC 24*7 Monitoring Service – 3-hours reporting flow diagram Data, GEO-METEO Trigger Solutions thresholds (Event) YES YES, NO (Information message) Common data + Automatic Reporting Data, IMPACT thresholds Solutions Assessment ERCC (JRC) First expert advice 3-hours Reviewed Report Expert advice Assessment
Partnership Partner Partner name acronym INGV Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia ZAMG Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik NOA National Observatory of Athens KOERI Kandilliİ Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute NIEP National Institute for Earth Physics IPMA Instituto Portugues do Mar e Atmosfera GFZ Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences BGS British Geological Survey UKMO UK Meteorological Office SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute - SMHI FMI Finnish Meteorological Institute KNMI Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut IMO Icelandic Meteorological Office Participants table (in grey the EUMETNET EIG EUMETNET coordinating institutions) CSEM Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Center
Earthquake Volcanic Eruptions Severe Weather Flooding (Tsunami) (ash and gas) Partners & INGV X X Hazards NOA X X KOERI X NIEP X ARISTOTLE’s IPMA (X) X X institutions participation to GFZ X the individual BGS X X X hazards. ZAMG X X X X Grey filled entries UKMO X X X indicate the SMHI X hazard chair institution. FMI X X X KNMI X X X X IMO X X X X EUMETNET X X CSEM X
Organization GEOPHYSICAL G+HM HYDROMET Member States TASK 2 INVENTORIES INVENTORIES Mandated EM Civil Protection …. SYNERGIES SYNERGIES PARTNERSHIPS PARTNERSHIPS Scientific experts / institutions TASK 3 Adv. Consolidation methodology (governance group structure, reporting …) TASK 1 TASK 4 24*7 SERVICE Global expert Advice & Analysis for ERCC and European Monitoring & Reporting JRC (EFAS, GTIMS, etc) ERCC TASK 5 Training
ARISTOTLE Project Governance ARISTOTLE Chair – INGV / ZAMG External advisory board 24 * 7 24 * 7 Monitoring Monitoring IMO UKMO MH Op. Board Chair – INGV / ZAMG Severe Volcano’ Weather s 24*7 expert Advice & Analysis Project Management Board ERCC for ERCC Earthquake Flooding (Tsunami) Chair – INGV / ZAMG INGV SHMI (IPMA) 24 * 7 24 * 7 Monitoring Monitorin g Steering Committee
ARISTOTLE Status (month 12) • Inventory of European Entities providing expert advice to CP authorities (Task 2, delivered) • 24*7 MHOB Operation (Task 4, delivered) – SOP (Standard Operation Protocol) – SPADA (Scientific Products Archiving and Document Assembly) IT Platform • Terms of Reference of the Scientific Partnership (Task 3, signed consortium needs extension) • Governance structure (Task 3, agreed the structure) • Training of ERCC Duty Officers (Task 5, ongoing)
Inventory • Entities which – operate on a 24*7 basis and are lawfully mandated to provide expert advice to their respective national Civil Protection authorities with regard to natural hazards and/or disaster risks – already network together and provide advice at international levels, e.g. within the UCPM – provide further information, e.g. at scientific level • “Phone Book” at present with – 130 institutes – 200 offices – 280 contacts – 90 types of advices – 90 decision making processes • Interactive version and booklet
24*7 MHOB Operation - SOP (Interaction between Aristotle and ERCC) Modes of Operation - Emergency Response Mode (ERM) • Reactive • Pro-active - Routine Mode - Exercise Mode
Multi-Hazard Operational Board – MHOB (for ERCC 24*7 Monitoring Service) ERCC 24 * 7 24 * 7 Monitoring Support & Monitoring Support & Monitoring Expertise Advice Monitoring Expertise Advice IMO UKMO Severe Volcano’ Weather s 24*7 expert Advice & Analysis for ERCC Earthquake Flooding (Tsunami) INGV SHMI (IPMA) 24 * 7 24 * 7 Monitoring Support & Monitoring Support & Monitoring Monitorin g Expertise Advice Expertise Advice Global and European National Monitoring & Monitoring & Analysis Centres Reporting (EFAS, GTIMS, etc)
Core of the ARISTOTLE Service: Multi-Hazard Operational Board – MHOB (for ERCC 24*7 Monitoring Service)
ERM Reactive Interaction
ERM Pro-active Interaction
24*7 MHOB Operation – ERM Reporting Structure: 1. Header - Threat level - Location - Hazardous phenomena - Overall impact estimation 2. Executive Summary - Current situation - Possible evolution - Exposure - Population - Infrastructures 3. Additional material 4. Individual Hazard description
24*7 MHOB Operation – ERM Products 3-hour Multi-Hazard Report structure: 1- Header Threat level - Location - Hazardous phenomena - Overall impact estimation -
2 - Executive Summary DESCRIPTION ASSESSMENT Current situation - Possible evolution - Exposure - Population - Infrastructures - JUDGEMENT
3- Additional material 4- Individual hazard description -
24*7 MHOB Operation - SPADA (IT platform for the Scientific Products Archiving and Document Assembly) Goals: - Facilitate the - Collection of the multi-hazard information - Visualization of the information - Text and additional diagrams/maps/pictures insertion - Assembly of the report - Printing of the report
24*7 MHOB Operation - SPADA (IT platform for the Scientific Products Archiving and Document Assembly)
24*7 MHOB Operation - SPADA (IT platform for the Scientific Products Archiving and Document Assembly)
24*7 MHOB Operation - SPADA (IT platform for the Scientific Products Archiving and Document Assembly)
24*7 MHOB Operation Started on February 1 st , 2017 • 6 activations • 3 earthquakes [Pakistan (M6.3), Philippines – (M6.5), Zambia (M5.7)] 1 floods (Hungary) – 2 Severe Weather (Mozambique and – Madagascar)
Conclusions ARISTOTLE facilitates the work of the ERCC with regard to its mandate by providing improved world leading multi - hazard capability though impact - oriented early warning and assessment . The following items are considered to be the most relevant • Improved analysis and situation awareness following a multidisciplinary approach , including 24*7 capabilities and availability of experts in the different fields . • Harmonization of reporting activities and thus consistency of the situation assessment at global scale. Involvement of the operational centers in a coordinated way - • network development, strengthening the collaboration among the partners operating in the same hazard category , taking into account of multi - hazard aspects
Conclusions (cnt’d) • The development of a system with its own governance and rules, that gathers many 24*7 scientific operators active in different hazard areas , will foster further collaborations and integration of new ideas . • This will likely have an impact on the existing strategies adopted in the early warning domain , which will feed back positively to the extent and quality of the services offered to the respective CPs at national level. • The system being proposed is scalable both for the inclusion of additional hazards and for an extended partnership since the final aim is to set up a single system upon which the ERCC can rely on. This also implies that the system being developed will be flexible enough to accommodate the differences between the hazard categories. • Thus, the system benefits of the existing operational expertise and it introduces important multi-hazard novelties that require sustainability
END thank you for the attention
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