ARISTOTLE a multi-hazard expert assessment project Alberto - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ARISTOTLE a multi-hazard expert assessment project

Alberto Michelini1, Gerhard Wotawa2, Delia Arnold-Arias2, Daniela Pantosti1 and the Aristotle Team

1) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy 2) Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie und Geodynamik, Wien, Austria

ARISTOTLE

All Risk Integrated System TOwards Trans-boundary hoListic Early-warning Pilot Project in the area of Early Warning System for natural disasters Contract n. ECHO/SER/2015/722144

Talk Structure

• Objectives
• Hazards
• Partnership & project organization
• Status, Service & Operation
• Final remarks & Conclusions

ARISTOTLE’S Objectives

• To deliver world leading multi-hazard capability to the

Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC)

• has been designed to offer
• a flexible and scalable system that can provide new

hazard-related services to the ERCC and

• to create a pool of experts in the field of

Meteorology and Geophysics of Europe that can support the ERCC with regard to situation assessments in crisis situations.

ARISTOTLE’S Objectives

In simple terms: Provide prompt scientific assessment of the situation to ERCC by 24*7 by a team of hazard experts through verbal interaction and written reports Emphasis on Exposure & Impact on people and on major primary and hazardous infrastructures and lifelines

Hazards

• Earthquakes (with Tsunamis as secondary induced

hazard)

• Volcano Eruptions (ashes and volcanic gases)
• Severe Weather Events (including wind storms, major

heat and cold waves, and severe precipitation)

• Flooding
• extendable to other natural hazards (including secondary

hazards)

Hazards

ERCC 24*7 Monitoring Service – 3-hours reporting flow diagram

Trigger (Event)

Common data + Automatic Reporting

Data, Solutions GEO-METEO thresholds

ERCC (JRC) YES YES, NO (Information message)

Assessment

IMPACT thresholds Data, Solutions

3-hours Reviewed Report Assessment

Expert advice First expert advice

Partnership

Partner acronym Partner name INGV Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia ZAMG Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik NOA National Observatory of Athens KOERI Kandilliİ Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute NIEP National Institute for Earth Physics IPMA Instituto Portugues do Mar e Atmosfera GFZ Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences BGS British Geological Survey UKMO UK Meteorological Office SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute - SMHI FMI Finnish Meteorological Institute KNMI Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut IMO Icelandic Meteorological Office EUMETNET EIG EUMETNET CSEM Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Center

Participants table (in grey the coordinating institutions)

Partners & Hazards

Earthquake (Tsunami) Volcanic Eruptions (ash and gas) Severe Weather Flooding INGV X X NOA X X KOERI X NIEP X IPMA (X) X X GFZ X BGS X X X ZAMG X X X X UKMO X X X SMHI X FMI X X X KNMI X X X X IMO X X X X EUMETNET X X CSEM X

ARISTOTLE’s institutions participation to the individual hazards. Grey filled entries indicate the hazard chair institution.

GEOPHYSICAL INVENTORIES SYNERGIES PARTNERSHIPS

Consolidation methodology (governance structure, reporting …)

INVENTORIES SYNERGIES PARTNERSHIPS HYDROMET

24*7 SERVICE expert Advice & Analysis for ERCC Member States Mandated EM Civil Protection …. Adv. group

Training G+HM Global and European Monitoring & Reporting (EFAS, GTIMS, etc)

JRC

ERCC

TASK 2

Scientific experts / institutions

TASK 3 TASK 4 TASK 5 TASK 1

Organization

ARISTOTLE Project Governance

External advisory board Steering Committee Chair – INGV / ZAMG Chair – INGV / ZAMG MH Op. Board Chair – INGV / ZAMG Project Management Board

ERCC ARISTOTLE

Earthquake (Tsunami) Volcano’ s Severe Weather Flooding

24 * 7 Monitoring 24 * 7 Monitoring 24 * 7 Monitoring 24 * 7 Monitoring 24*7 expert Advice & Analysis for ERCC

SHMI

INGV (IPMA)

IMO UKMO

ARISTOTLE Status

(month 12)

• Inventory of European Entities providing expert

advice to CP authorities (Task 2, delivered)

• 24*7 MHOB Operation (Task 4, delivered)

– SOP (Standard Operation Protocol) – SPADA (Scientific Products Archiving and Document Assembly) IT Platform

• Terms of Reference of the Scientific Partnership (Task

3, signed consortium needs extension)

• Governance structure (Task 3, agreed the structure)
• Training of ERCC Duty Officers (Task 5, ongoing)

• Entities which

– operate on a 24*7 basis and are lawfully mandated to provide expert advice to their respective national Civil Protection authorities with regard to natural hazards and/or disaster risks – already network together and provide advice at international levels, e.g. within the UCPM – provide further information, e.g. at scientific level

• “Phone Book” at present with

– 130 institutes – 200 offices – 280 contacts – 90 types of advices – 90 decision making processes

• Interactive version and booklet

Inventory

24*7 MHOB Operation - SOP

(Interaction between Aristotle and ERCC)

Modes of Operation

• Emergency Response Mode (ERM)
• Reactive
• Pro-active
• Routine Mode
• Exercise Mode

Multi-Hazard Operational Board – MHOB

(for ERCC 24*7 Monitoring Service)

Earthquake (Tsunami) Volcano’ s Severe Weather Flooding

24 * 7 Monitoring 24 * 7 Monitoring 24 * 7 Monitoring 24 * 7 Monitoring Monitoring Support & Expertise Advice

24*7 expert Advice & Analysis for ERCC

Monitoring Support & Expertise Advice Monitoring Support & Expertise Advice Monitoring Support & Expertise Advice

Global and European Monitoring & Reporting (EFAS, GTIMS, etc) National Monitoring & Analysis Centres SHMI IMO UKMO

INGV (IPMA)

ERCC

Core of the ARISTOTLE Service: Multi-Hazard Operational Board – MHOB

(for ERCC 24*7 Monitoring Service)

ERM Reactive Interaction

ERM Pro-active Interaction

24*7 MHOB Operation – ERM Reporting

Structure:

• 1. Header
• Threat level
• Location
• Hazardous phenomena
• Overall impact estimation
• 2. Executive Summary
• Current situation
• Possible evolution
• Exposure
• Population
• Infrastructures
• 3. Additional material
• 4. Individual Hazard description

24*7 MHOB Operation – ERM Products

3-hour Multi-Hazard Report structure:

1- Header

• Threat level
• Location
• Hazardous phenomena
• Overall impact estimation

2 - Executive Summary

• Current situation
• Possible evolution
• Exposure
• Population
• Infrastructures

DESCRIPTION ASSESSMENT JUDGEMENT

3- Additional material 4- Individual hazard description

24*7 MHOB Operation - SPADA

(IT platform for the Scientific Products Archiving and Document Assembly)

Goals:

• Facilitate the
• Collection of the multi-hazard information
• Visualization of the information
• Text and additional diagrams/maps/pictures

insertion

• Assembly of the report
• Printing of the report

24*7 MHOB Operation - SPADA

(IT platform for the Scientific Products Archiving and Document Assembly)

24*7 MHOB Operation - SPADA

(IT platform for the Scientific Products Archiving and Document Assembly)

24*7 MHOB Operation - SPADA

(IT platform for the Scientific Products Archiving and Document Assembly)

24*7 MHOB Operation

• Started on February 1st, 2017
• 6 activations

– 3 earthquakes [Pakistan (M6.3), Philippines (M6.5), Zambia (M5.7)] – 1 floods (Hungary) – 2 Severe Weather (Mozambique and Madagascar)

ARISTOTLE facilitates the work of the ERCC with regard to its mandate by providing improved world leading multi-hazard capability though impact-oriented early warning and assessment. The following items are considered to be the most relevant

• Improved analysis and situation awareness following a

multidisciplinary approach, including 24*7 capabilities and availability of experts in the different fields.

• Harmonization of reporting activities and thus consistency of

the situation assessment at global scale.

• Involvement of the operational centers in a coordinated way -

network development, strengthening the collaboration among the partners operating in the same hazard category, taking into account of multi-hazard aspects

Conclusions

• The development of a system with its own governance and

rules, that gathers many 24*7 scientific operators active in different hazard areas, will foster further collaborations and integration of new ideas.

• This will likely have an impact on the existing strategies

adopted in the early warning domain, which will feed back positively to the extent and quality of the services offered to the respective CPs at national level.

• The system being proposed is scalable both for the inclusion
• f additional hazards and for an extended partnership since

the final aim is to set up a single system upon which the ERCC can rely on. This also implies that the system being developed will be flexible enough to accommodate the differences between the hazard categories.

• Thus, the system benefits of the existing operational

expertise and it introduces important multi-hazard novelties that require sustainability

Conclusions (cnt’d)

END thank you for the attention