ARISTOTLE: A Multihazard All-Risk Integrated System Toward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶

Aug 20, 2022 499 likes •705 views

ARISTOTLE: A Multihazard All-Risk Integrated System Toward Transboundary Holistic Early Warning Neil Armstrong, Deputy Chief Meteorologist With special thanks to Jenny Rourke, Gavin Iley, Anton Muscat, the ERCC and all of the ARISTOTLE members.

SLIDE 1

ARISTOTLE: A Multihazard All-Risk Integrated System Toward Transboundary Holistic Early Warning

Neil Armstrong, Deputy Chief Meteorologist With special thanks to Jenny Rourke, Gavin Iley, Anton Muscat, the ERCC and all of the ARISTOTLE members.

SLIDE 2

ARISTOTLE: All Risk Integrated System TOwards Trans-boundary hoListic Early- hoListic Early- warning

SLIDE 3

What is ARISTOTLE?

SLIDE 4

What is ARISTOTLE?

Number of operations of the EUCP Mechanism Requests for assistance inside and outside EU

SLIDE 5

What is ARISTOTLE?

Number of operations of the EUCP Mechanism

32 activations in 2017

Requests for assistance inside and outside EU

* Source : ERCC Operations CEOS WG March 2018

SLIDE 6

What is ARISTOTLE?

UKMO FMI KNMI ZAMG IPMA SMHI ECMWF INGV BGS NIEP KOERI

SLIDE 7

What is ARISTOTLE?

Proactive Routine

Reactive Emergency report

Hazard Leads Routine monitoring Multi hazard

perational board

(MHOB)

Emergency report a

Hazard Members

SLIDE 8

Severe Weather

Daily monitoring

Multi-model ensemble based impact forecasts Hot – cold waves Rain - snow Wind – Tropical Storms

SLIDE 9

Severe Weather

Daily monitoring

SLIDE 10

Severe Weather Case Study :

Tropical Cyclone Enawo – March 2017

Intense Tropical Cyclone affected NE

Madagascar early March 2017

Sustained winds 110kt (203km/hr)
186mm rain recorded in 6hrs
The NE sustained significant damage to
The NE sustained significant damage to

housing and agriculture

Antalaha port was inaccessible with more than

half the City’s homes destroyed

Severe flooding (up to 4 meters) in the NE, with

2 schools destroyed

Humanitarian support was requested but was

managed by in-country teams.

SLIDE 11

Multi-model forecast of Tropical Storm Activity 9 days before landfall

Severe Weather Case Study :

Tropical Cyclone Enawo – March 2017

Severe Weather Hazard Group notified

SLIDE 12

Multi-model forecast Tropical Storm Tracks 6 days before landfall

Severe Weather Case Study :

Tropical Cyclone Enawo – March 2017

Severe Weather Hazard Group notified

SLIDE 13

Multi-model forecast Tropical Storm Tracks 5 days before landfall

Severe Weather Case Study :

Tropical Cyclone Enawo – March 2017

Severe Weather Hazard Group pre-alerts

SLIDE 14

Multi-model forecast Tropical Storm Tracks (left) and Strike Probability (right)

Severe Weather Case Study :

Tropical Cyclone Enawo – March 2017

4 days before landfall ERCC notified, decline EMR

SLIDE 15

Multi-model forecast Tropical Storm Tracks (left) and Strike Probability (right)

Severe Weather Case Study :

Tropical Cyclone Enawo – March 2017

3 days before landfall ERCC re-notified, trigger EMR

SLIDE 16

Multi-model forecast Tropical Storm Tracks (left) and Strike Probability (right)

Severe Weather Case Study :

Tropical Cyclone Enawo – March 2017

2 days before landfall ERCC re-activate

SLIDE 17

Multi-hazard report issued to ERCC Focus on impacts across NE

Severe Weather Case Study :

Tropical Cyclone Enawo – March 2017

across NE Madagascar Report updated next day 24 hours ahead

f landfall

SLIDE 18

Summary

SLIDE 19

Any questions ?

Many thanks to:

Jenny Rourke, Gavin Iley, Anton Muscat, the ERCC and all of the many ARISTOTLE members