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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) Seismic induced landslide Seismic induced landslide hazard assessment hazard assessment Cees van Westen & Mark van der Meijde Department Earth Systems

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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Seismic induced landslide Seismic induced landslide hazard assessment hazard assessment

Cees van Westen & Mark van der Meijde Department Earth Systems Analysis, ITC Enschede, Netherlands

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Earthquake induced landslides Earthquake induced landslides

  • Earthquake-induced landsliding of a hillside slope occurs

when the static plus inertia forces within the slide mass cause the factor of safety to temporarily drop below 1.0.

  • The value of the peak ground acceleration within the slide

mass required to just cause the factor of safety to drop to 1.0 is denoted by the critical or yield acceleration ac.

  • This value of acceleration is determined based on pseudo-

static slope stability analyses and/or empirically based

  • n observations of slope behavior during past earthquakes.
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Shear strength / stress Shear strength / stress

Shear strength (Mohr-Coulomb criterion) s = c + σ tan φ

σ = normal stress = W cos β / A c = cohesion (KPa) φ = angle of internal friction (degrees)

Shear stress = W sin β / A

φ and c are geotechnical properties, which are measured in the laboratory using triaxial tests or shearbox tests.

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Safety Factor Safety Factor

The degree of slope hazard can be expressed by the Safety Factor (F) which is the ratio of the forces that make a slope fail and those that prevent a slope from failing.

  • F < 1 unstable slope conditions,
  • F = 1 slope is at the point of failure,
  • F > 1 stable slope conditions.
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Infinite slope Infinite slope

Infinite slope:

  • Conditions at crest and toe of the slope may be ignored.
  • Resulting forces from left and right are equal

γ = unit weight of soil (N/m3).

Shear component of weight: Normal component of weight: Weight of the block:

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Infinite slope Infinite slope

Stress = Force / area

Shear component of weight: Shear stress: Normal stress: Normal component of weight: Safety factor:

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Infinite slope & water pressure Infinite slope & water pressure

Height watertable above failure surface Weight of the water: Normal component of water weight: Pore pressure on JK: Factor of safety including pore pressure:

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Infinite slope & seismic acceleration Infinite slope & seismic acceleration

F = safety factor c’ = effective cohesion (KPa) φ’ = effective angle of internal friction (degrees) A = horizontal component

  • f

seismic acceleration, PGA (m/s2) γ = unit weight of soil (kN/m3) γw = unit weight of water (kN/m3) ρ = bulk density of soil (kg/m3) z = depth of failure surface below terrain surface (m) zw = depth of water table below terrain surface (m) β = Slope angle (degrees)

a

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FOS & critical acceleration FOS & critical acceleration

α γ ϕ γ α ϕ α γ tan ' tan tan ' tan sin '

w

m z c FOS − + =

Legend: c' : effective cohesion [kN/m²] γ : spec. unit weight [kN/m³] γw : spec. unit weight of water [kN/m³] z : thickness of moving layer [m] α : slope angle[°] ϕ' : effective friction angle [°] m : relation of saturated to unsaturated layer within z

( )

α sin 1 − = FOS a c

Legend: ac : critical acceleration [m/s²] α : slope angle [°]

Newmark (1965), modified Miles (2003), modified

FOS = Factor of Safety

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'Newmark Displacement' 'Newmark Displacement' -

  • Method

Method

'Newmark Displacement' after Jibson (1998):

546 . 1 log 993 . 1 log 521 . 1 log − − =

c a n

a I D

This simplified formula by Jibson (1998) is used to calculate the displacement initiated by earthquake energy

99 , 3 ² ² log 2 log − + − = h R M I a ARIAS - Intensity after Wilson (1993):

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Methods for seismically induced landslide Methods for seismically induced landslide hazard assessment hazard assessment

  • Pseudo-static analysis, in which the earthquake load is

simulated by an "equivalent" static horizontal acceleration acting on the mass of the landslide, in a limit-equilibrium analysis

  • Newmark or cumulative displacement analysis,

involves the calculation of the yield acceleration, defined as the inertial force required to cause the static factor of safety to reach 1.0

  • Makdisi-Seed analysis. Design curves were developed to

estimate the permanent earthquake-induced deformations

  • f embankments 100 to 200 feet high using finite element

analyses.

  • Dynamic analysis or a stress-deformation analysis. It

typically incorporates a finite-element or finite-difference mathematical model.

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Earthquake induced landslides Earthquake induced landslides

  • Deformations are calculated using the approach originally

developed by Newmark (1965).

  • Downslope deformations occur during the time periods

when the induced peak ground acceleration within the slide mass ais exceeds the critical acceleration ac.

  • In general, the smaller the ratio (below 1.0) of ac to ais, the

greater is the number and duration of times when downslope movement occurs, and thus the greater is the total amount of downslope movement.

  • The amount of downslope movement also depends on the

duration or number of cycles of ground shaking.

  • Since duration and number of cycles increase with

earthquake magnitude, deformation tends to increase with increasing magnitude for given values of ac and ais.

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Newmark Newmark method method

  • The procedure involves the calculation of the yield

acceleration, defined as the inertial force required to cause the static factor of safety to reach 1.0, from the traditional limit-equilibrium slope stability analysis. The procedure then uses a design earthquake strong-motion record which is numerically integrated twice for the amplitude of the acceleration above the yield acceleration to calculate the cumulative displacements. These analytical displacements are then evaluated in light of the slope material properties and the requirements of the proposed development.

  • (Newmark, 1965; Makdisi and Seed, 1978; Hynes and

Franklin, 1984; Houston and others, 1987; Wilson and Keefer, 1983; Jibson, 1993).

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Newmark Newmark method method

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Newmark Newmark method method

Step 1:

  • The first step is to perform a limit-equilibrium stability

analysis to determine the location and shape of the critical slip surface (the slip surface with the lowest factor of safety), and the yield acceleration (Ky), defined as the acceleration required to bring the factor of safety to 1.0.

Ky = ( FS - 1 )g sin a

Where: g = the acceleration due to gravity a = is the angle from the horizontal that the center of mass of the landslide first moves. FS = factor of safety in static conditions

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Newmark Newmark method method

Step 2:

  • select an acceleration time history that represents the

expected ground motions at the project site. The selection process typically involves estimating magnitude, source-to-site distance, and peak ground acceleration seismic parameters for the project site.

  • For Newmark analyses, Jibson (1993) recommended

using:

  • Arias Intensity
  • Magnitude and source distance,
  • PGA and duration as criteria for selecting a suite of

strong-motion records having characteristics of interest at a project site

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Newmark Newmark method method

Step 2:

  • Newmark displacement (DN) is a

function of critical acceleration and Arias Intensity according to the following empirical regression equation (Jibson, 1993): log DN = 1.460 log Ia - 6.642ac + 1.546

  • In which:
  • Ia = Arias Intensity in meters per second.
  • ac = critical acceleration,
  • DN = Newmark displacement
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Newmark Newmark method method

Arias Intensity:

  • Arias Intensity (Ia) is defined as the sum of all the

squared acceleration values from seismic strong motion records.

  • Arias intensity has been found to be a fairly reliable

parameter to describe earthquake shaking necessary to trigger landslides.

  • Researchers in California (Harp and Wilson, 1995)

found a minimum Ariasintensity of 0.11 m/s for the initiation of landslides of type I (Rock falls and disrupted soil slides ).

  • The same authors reported a minimum Arias intensity
  • f 0.32 m/s required for the initiation of landslides of

type II (Coherent deep-seated slumps ).

  • The larger Arias intensity indicates that stronger and

longer duration shaking is required to trigger landslides of type II.

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ARIAS ARIAS -

  • Intensity

Intensity

dt t a g Ia

∫

∞

=

2

) ( * 2 π

Legend: Ia : ARIAS - Intensity [m/s] a : Acceleration [m/s²] t : Time g : Gravity [m/s²]

Arias (1975)

99 , 3 ² ² log 2 log − + − = h R M Ia

Simplified formula after Wilson (1993):

Legend: Ia : ARIAS - Intensity [m/s] M : Magnitude R : Distance from Epicenter [m] h : Depth [m]

… is defined as the sum of all the squared acceleration values from seismic strong motion records, measured in m/s.

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Newmark Newmark method method

Arias Intensity:

For example: the attenuation law of Wilson and Keefer (1985) based on California earthquake data

in which: Ia = Arias intensity (m/s). Mw = Moment magnitude. d = Closest distance to surface projection of fault rupture (km). h = Focal depth of earthquake (km). P = Probability of exceedance. M = the moment magnitude of a design earthquake and R = the earthquake source-to-site distance in kilometers. E.G a M 8.5 earthquake approximately 20 km away is approximately equivalent to an Arias Intensity (Ia) of 3.9 m/s.

log Ia = M – 2 log R – 4.1

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Newmark Newmark method method

ky1 ky2 ky3 t2 t1

t Acceleration t Velocity t

t1 t3 t1 t3

Displacement Note: Critical accelerations in figure are ky1, ky2 and ky3. In applications, critical acceleration is usually taken as a single value.

  • Step 3:

Integration of Accelerograms to Determine Downslope Displacements

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Newmark Newmark method method

Results: Newmark displacements:

  • 0 - 10 cm: unlikely to correspond to serious

landslide movement and damage

  • 10 – 100 cm: slope deformation may be

sufficient to cause serious ground cracking or enough strength loss to result in continuing (post-seismic) failure.

  • > 100 cm: very likely to correspond to

damaging landslide movement, and such slopes should be considered unstable.

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Landslide Susceptibility Landslide Susceptibility

  • The landslide hazard evaluation requires the

characterization of the landslide susceptibility of the soil/geologic conditions of a region or subregion.

  • Susceptibility is characterized by:
  • the geologic group,
  • slope angle and
  • critical acceleration.
  • The

acceleration required to initiate slope movement is a complex function of slope geology, steepness, groundwater conditions, type

  • f

landsliding and history

  • f

previous slope performance.

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Landslide Susceptibility Landslide Susceptibility

  • A generally accepted relationship or simplified

methodology for estimating ac has not been developed

  • The relationship proposed by Wilson and Keefer

(1985) is utilized

  • Landslide susceptibility is measured on a scale of

I to X, with I being the least susceptible.

  • The site condition is identified using three

geologic groups and groundwater level.

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Critical Acceleration as a Function of Critical Acceleration as a Function of Geologic Group and Slope Angle Geologic Group and Slope Angle

Slope Angle (degrees) Ac - Critical Acceleration (g) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 C (Wet) C (Dry) B (Wet) A (Wet) B (Dry) A (Dry)

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Simplified relation landslide Simplified relation landslide susceptibility susceptibility

Geologic Group Slope Angle, degrees 0-10 10-15 15-20 20-30 30-40 >40 (a) DRY (groundwater below level of sliding) A Strongly Cemented Rocks (crystalline rocks and well-cemented sandstone, c' =300 psf, φ' = 35o) None None I II IV VI B Weakly Cemented Rocks and Soils (sandy soils and poorly cemented sandstone, c' =0, φ' = 35o) None III IV V VI VII C Argillaceous Rocks (shales, clayey soil, existing landslides, poorly compacted fills, c' =0 φ' = 20o) V VI VII IX IX IX (b) WET (groundwater level at ground surface) A Strongly Cemented Rocks (crystalline rocks and well-cemented sandstone, c' =300 psf, φ' = 35o) None III VI VII VIII VIII B Weakly Cemented Rocks and Soils (sandy soils and poorly cemented sandstone, c' =0, φ' = 35o) V VIII IX IX IX X C Argillaceous Rocks (shales, clayey soil, existing landslides, poorly compacted fills, c' =0 φ' = 20o) VII IX X X X X

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Slope failure vs. substrate Slope failure vs. substrate properties properties

8 m=0,5 4 φ'=30 3 d=10 2 γ=16 1,5 c'=210 1 c'=50 0,7 c'=30 0,5 c'=20 0,3 c'=0 0,1 (α var.) 0,001 DN [cm]: Ia 1° 5° 10° 15° 20° 25° 30° 35° 40° 50° 90°

α:

Shading: DN > 15 [cm]

Legend: α : Slope angle c': effective cohesion γ : unit weight d : focal depth φ': effective friction angle m : relation saturated / unsaturated layer

8 m=0 4 m=0,2 3 m=0,5 2 m=0,8 1,5 m=1 1 φ'=30 0,7 d=10 0,5 γ=16 0,3 c'=30 0,1 (α var.) 0,001 DN [cm]: Ia 1° 5° 10° 15° 20° 25° 30° 35° 40° 50° 90°

α: Legend: α : Slope angle c': effective cohesion γ : unit weight d : focal depth φ': effective friction angle m : relation saturated / unsaturated layer

Keefer (2002)

Meyenfeld, Bonn University, 2005

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Slope failure vs. substrate Slope failure vs. substrate properties properties

Shading: DN > 15 [cm]

Legend: α : Slope angle c': effective cohesion γ : unit weight d : focal depth φ': effective friction angle m : relation saturated / unsaturated layer

8 m=0,5 4 φ'=65 3 φ'=40 2 φ'=30 1,5 φ'=20 1 φ'=0 0,7 d=10 0,5 γ=16 0,3 c'=30 0,1 (α var.) 0,001 DN [cm]: Ia 1° 5° 10° 15° 20° 25° 30° 35° 40° 50° 90°

α: Legend: α : Slope angle c': effective cohesion γ : unit weight d : focal depth φ': effective friction angle m : relation saturated / unsaturated layer

8 m=0,5 4 φ'=30 3 d=10 2 γ=1 1,5 γ=10 1 γ=16 0,7 γ=25 0,5 γ=30 0,3 c'=30 0,1 (α var.) 0,001 DN [cm]: Ia 1° 5° 10° 15° 20° 25° 30° 35° 40° 50° 90°

α:

Keefer (2002)

Meyenfeld, Bonn University, 2005

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1 1 2 K i l o m e t e r s

N e w m a r k D i s p l. r e g i o n a l , I a = 1 0 - 5 5 - 1 5 1 5 - 5 0 5 0 - 1 1 1 1 N o D a t a L s a c t i v e L s in a c t i v e

N E W S

Landslide Distribution and Displacement Landslide Distribution and Displacement Calculation applying the Model Calculation applying the Model 'Newmark 'Newmark Displacement' Displacement'

Equation after Jibson (1998):

546 . 1 log 993 . 1 log 521 . 1 log − − =

c a n

a I D

Venusberg

Rhine

City of Bonn Meyenfeld, Bonn University, 2005

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Example: Example:

  • Earthquake-induced landslide hazard

assessment in California, US.

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Preparation of Earthquake Preparation of Earthquake-

  • Induced

Induced Landslide Zoning Landslide Zoning Input Data

  • Geologic Map
  • Digital Elevation Data
  • Design Seismic Data
  • Geotechnical Shear Test Data
  • Landslide Inventory

Method of Analysis

  • Infinite - Slope Failure Model
  • Newmark Displacement Analysis

Florante Florante Perez Perez DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION CALIFORNIA GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CALIFORNIA GEOLOGICAL SURVEY 801 K Street, MS 12 801 K Street, MS 12-31 31 Sacramento, CA 95814 Sacramento, CA 95814 USA USA Tel: 916 Tel: 916-322 322-0203 0203 Fax: 916 Fax: 916-445 445-3334 3334 E-mail: mail: aperez@consrv.ca.gov aperez@consrv.ca.gov Web: Web: www.consrv.ca.gov www.consrv.ca.gov

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Diagrammatic Work Flow Diagrammatic Work Flow

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Flow chart Flow chart

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Diagrammatic Work Flow Diagrammatic Work Flow

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Geologic Map Geologic Map

  • Stratigraphy
  • Landslides
  • Geologic

Structures Dip Gradient Dip Direction

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Geologic Map Geologic Map

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Geologic Map Geologic Map

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Diagrammatic Work Flow Diagrammatic Work Flow

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Digital Elevation Data Digital Elevation Data

DEM

  • USGS DEM
  • Photogrammetric

DTM

  • Intermap DEM

Slope Gradient Slope Aspect

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Digital Elevation Data Digital Elevation Data

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Diagrammatic Work Flow Diagrammatic Work Flow

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Digital Elevation Data/Geologic Map Digital Elevation Data/Geologic Map

(Structure) (Structure)

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Diagrammatic Work Flow Diagrammatic Work Flow

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Design Seismic Data Design Seismic Data

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Design Seismic Data Design Seismic Data

Strong Motion Record

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Diagrammatic Work Flow Diagrammatic Work Flow

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Geotechnical Shear Test Data Geotechnical Shear Test Data

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Geotechnical Shear Test Data Geotechnical Shear Test Data

Strength Group Histogram

PHI Distributions for Material Strength Groups

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Geotechnical Shear Test Data Geotechnical Shear Test Data

10 20 30 40 50 60

Angle of Internal Friction (phi)

5 10 15 Count

Coarse-Grained Fine-Grained

Chatsworth Formation (Kc)

Statistical Analysis Statistical Analysis

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Geotechnical Shear Test Data Geotechnical Shear Test Data

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Diagrammatic Work Flow Diagrammatic Work Flow

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Geologic Map/Geotechnical Shear Test Data Geologic Map/Geotechnical Shear Test Data (Stratigraphy) (Stratigraphy)

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Diagrammatic Work Flow Diagrammatic Work Flow

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Landslide Inventory Landslide Inventory

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Landslide Inventory Landslide Inventory

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Method of Analysis Method of Analysis

  • Static Conditions:
  • FS = R/D = Wcos α tan φ / Wsin α = tan φ / tan α
  • Dynamic Conditions:
  • ay = (FS - 1)g sin α (Newmark’s Equation)

W kh(t)W W Rs Rd Ns = W cos α Nd α α

STATIC CONDITIONS DYNAMIC CONDITIONS

INFINITE SLOPE MODEL INFINITE SLOPE MODEL

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Method of Analysis Method of Analysis

Newmark Displacement Analysis

Permanent Slope Displacements From EQ Ground Motion

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Method of Analysis Method of Analysis

0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0 DISPLACEMENT (cm) 0.01 0.1 1 YIELD ACCELERATION (g)

NEWMARK DISPLACEMENT

  • vs. YIELD ACCELERATION

30 cm 15 cm 5 cm 0.076 0.129 0.232

USC STATION #14 - Channel 3

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Method of Analysis Method of Analysis

Slope Stability Analysis

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Hazard Potential Matrix Hazard Potential Matrix

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Diagrammatic Work Flow Diagrammatic Work Flow

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Landslide Hazard Potential Landslide Hazard Potential

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Diagrammatic Work Flow Diagrammatic Work Flow

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Landslide Hazard Potential / Landslide Hazard Potential / Liquefaction Hazard Liquefaction Hazard Potential Potential

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Seismic Hazard Zones Seismic Hazard Zones