and Planning February 2017 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Growth in Demographics Comal County and Planning February 2017 Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Economic Indicators • The state unemployment rate is below 4.5%, and most major Texas MSA’s are currently within “full employment.” • While the depressed oil market has slowed Texas job growth since mid 2014, the oil and gas sector saw the first month of net job gains since December 2014 . • Texas is expecting a 2% job growth rate in 2017 , up from 1.6% in 2016. • Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (Dec 2016) - U.S. 4.5% - Texas 4.6% - DFW MSA 3.7% - Austin-Round Rock MSA 3.2% - San Antonio MSA 3.7% - Houston MSA 5.3% • #1 Exporter: In 2015 Texas exported $251 billion in goods to destinations all over the world, leading the nation for the 14th year running. • 51 Fortune 500: Fifty- one of the nation’s leading companies base their headquarters in Texas. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Texas Workforce Commission 2

Growing States, 2000-2015 Numeric Percent 2000 2010 2015 Change Change Population Population Population 2010-2015 2010-2015 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 321,418,820 12,673,282 4.1% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 27,469,114 2,323,553 9.2% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,144,818 1,890,862 5.1% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 20,271,272 1,469,962 7.8% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,214,860 527,207 5.4% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,042,802 507,319 5.3% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 6,828,065 436,048 6.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2015 Population Estimates. 3

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2015 Lipscomb Ochiltree Hansford Dallam Sherman Moore Roberts Hartley Hutchinson Hemphill 112 - 10,000 Gray Oldham Potter Wheeler Carson Armstrong Collingsworth Deaf 10,001 - 50,000 Smith Randall Donley Parmer Castro Childress Swisher Hall 50,001 - 100,000 Briscoe Hardeman Wilbarger Cottle Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Foard Clay Wichita Montague Grayson Dickens Red 100,001 - 500,000 Lubbock Lamar King Baylor Archer River Cochran Knox Fannin Cooke Crosby Bowie Hockley Stonewall Delta Titus Young Haskell Jack Wise 500,001 - 4,538,028 Denton Lynn Kent Collin Franklin Cass Yoakum Terry Garza Hunt Morris Throckmorton Hopkins Rockwall Camp Shackelford Tarrant Borden Scurry Jones Rains Wood Dawson Palo Parker Upshur Marion Gaines Fisher Dallas Stephens Pinto Van Harrison Kaufman Hood Zandt Nolan Taylor Johnson Eastland Erath Smith Gregg Ellis Andrews Martin Howard Mitchell Somervell Henderson Panola Comanche Callahan Rusk Glasscock Hill Navarro Bosque El Paso Coke Loving Midland Runnels Anderson Winkler Ector Cherokee Shelby Sterling Brown Hamilton Freestone Coleman Nacogdoches McLennan Ward Hudspeth Tom Mills Crane San Culberson Upton Reagan Coryell Houston Green Concho Irion Falls Leon Augustine San Reeves Lampasas McCulloch Angelina Saba Trinity Bell Robertson Madison Newton Burnet Polk Schleicher Menard Crockett Jeff Pecos Milam Tyler Mason Walker Llano Williamson Brazos Davis San Jasper Grimes Kimble Burleson Sutton Jacinto Travis Gillespie Hardin Lee Montgomery Blanco Washington Orange Terrell Kerr Hays Bastrop Liberty Edwards Presidio Kendall Val Waller Austin Jefferson Fayette Real Caldwell Harris Brewster Verde Comal Bandera Chambers Guadalupe Colorado Fort Bexar Gonzales Bend Galveston Kinney Uvalde Medina Lavaca Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Zavala Jackson Maverick Karnes Frio Matagorda Atascosa Victoria Goliad Live Calhoun Dimmit Bee Oak La Salle Refugio McMullen Aransas San Patricio Jim Webb Nueces Duval Wells Kleberg Jim Brooks Hogg Zapata Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron 4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 2014-2015 Percent Percent Percent Change Change from County U.S. Population from International Rank Change Migration Migration Hays 1 5.2% 85.5% 1.9% Comal 2 4.5% 90.7% 2.1% Fort Bend 4 4.3% 79.3% 16.5% Williamson 7 3.9% 79.1% 6.7% Montgomery 10 3.6% 80.8% 9.9% Denton 12 3.4% 74.5% 11.7% Ector 18 3.3% 63.1% 3.1% Midland 19 3.3% 66.2% 3.2% Collin 23 3.2% 75.2% 15.8% Kaufman 25 3.1% 79.8% 3.2% Parker 29 2.8% 89.8% 2.2% Brazos 32 2.8% 69.2% 27.4% Guadalupe 38 2.7% 78.8% 4.6% Ellis 39 2.7% 77.2% 2.7% *Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

Density by Census Tract, Austin/San Antonio Corridor, 1970-2010 1980 1990 1970 2010 2000 Persons per Square Mile Pctch 0 – 10 11 – 50 51 – 500 501 – 4,000 4,001 – 56,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses. Geolytics, Neighborhood Change Database Tract Data from 1970-2010

7

8

9

Comal County Home Sales 2016 Home Sales by Type Foreclosure 0.00% 2.63% REO Sale 4.03% New Home Sale 22.07% 2016 Home Sales by Type Regular Resale 71.27% • Comal County had 4,668 home sales in 2016, and 22% were of new homes • The average sale price in 2016 for a new home was $331,240 • The average sale price in 2016 for an existing home was $284,855 Source: Comal County Deed Transactions 10

San Antonio New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q16 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Northside ISD 3,484 3,488 6,302 32,902 2 Comal ISD 1,605 1,610 3,007 25,565 3 Schertz-Cibolo U City ISD 730 858 1,725 6,402 4 Boerne ISD 714 709 1,358 10,387 5 Judson ISD 762 647 1,673 5,527 6 North East ISD 541 542 980 5,979 7 New Braunfels ISD 540 538 1,100 8,669 8 Medina Valley ISD 455 396 656 15,427 9 Southwest ISD 354 325 358 5,273 10 East Central ISD 338 321 757 3,796 11 Seguin ISD 105 122 236 1,206 12 Southside ISD 100 91 72 8,943 13 Navarro ISD 82 78 193 312 14 San Antonio ISD 152 74 286 3,002 15 Harlandale ISD 46 41 67 156 11

Top 20 Subdivisions by Annual Closings • The Top 20 most active subdivisions in Comal County closed 1,020 new homes in 2016 • 12 The most active subdivision in Comal County is the Vintage Oaks at the Vineyard

Millennials and Household Formation • Millennials are the largest generation in US history • Due to lower employment levels, lower incomes and higher student loan balances than any previous generation, Millennials are delaying household formation • The percent of 18-31 year olds married and living independently has dropped from 56% in 1968 to just 23% in 2012 • As Millennials enter peak home-buying years of 25-45 the desire to settle down and later household formations could surge home sales 13

Millennials and Household Formation 14

Millennials and Household Formation 15

Millennials and Household Formation 16

Millennials and Household Formation 17

Texas Birth Statistics Texas Birth Statistics 450,000 20 Recession 18 400,000 16 Births per 1,000 people 350,000 Number of Births 14 300,000 12 250,000 10 200,000 8 150,000 6 100,000 4 50,000 2 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number of Births Birth Rate • In Texas, nearly 400,000 babies were born in 2014 • In 2014, the birth rate rose for the first time since 2005 as the economy grew and the unemployment rate dropped below 5% Source: Texas Department of State Health Services 18

Comal County Birth Statistics Comal County Births and Birth Rate, 2000 - 2013 1,600 16.00 Birth Rate (No of Births per 1,000 people) Recession 1,400 14.00 1,200 12.00 Number of Births 1,000 10.00 800 8.00 600 6.00 400 4.00 200 2.00 0 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 No of Births Birth Rate • In Comal County, 1,363 babies were born in 2013 • While the number of births has started to rise due to population growth, the birth rate has been falling for decades • This tracks national trends of later household formations and lower birth rates for most demographic groups Source: Texas Department of State Health Services 19

San Antonio MSA Birth Density by Zip Code 20