National Intelligence An Introduction to National Intelligence
Unclassified National Intelligence Intelligence: It’s all around you Unclassified
National Intelligence Intelligence: What is It? It certainly isn’t just information! “Information is not knowledge” (Albert Einstein)
National Intelligence National Intelligence Is knowledge produced for the President by the Intelligence Community (IC)
Unclassified National Intelligence Members of the IC Air Force Intelligence Army Intelligence Central Intelligence Agency Coast Guard Intelligence Defense Intelligence Agency Department of Energy Department of Homeland Security Department of State Department of the Treasury Drug Enforcement Administration Federal Bureau of Investigation Marine Corps Intelligence National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency National Reconnaissance Office National Security Agency Navy Intelligence Unclassified
National Intelligence Intelligence Analysis Creating New Knowledge from the Data Collected
National Intelligence Distribution ● President’s Daily Brief (PDB) ● National Estimates ● Separate Studies
National Intelligence Covert Action 1949 Syrian coup d'état 1953 Iranian coup d'état 1954 Guatemalan coup d'état 1961 Cuba, Bay of Pigs Invasion 1964 Brazilian coup d'état 1973 Chilean coup d'état 1979–89 Afghanistan, Operation Cyclone 1981–87 Nicaraguan Contras
National Intelligence The Key Players in National Intelligence Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Bureau of Intelligence and Research(INR) Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) National Security Agency (NSA) National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA)
National Intelligence Major Functions ● Collect ● Analyze ● Distribute
National Intelligence Types of Intelligence Collection Human Intelligence Geo-Spatial HUMINT IMINT Signals Intelligence SIGINT Open-Source Intelligence Measurements & Signatures OSINT Intelligence MASINT
National Intelligence Call Me a Pessimist ● In Denial ● Don’t Understand Analysis ● Emphasis on Current Reporting ● Those responsible for a turnaround brought us here
National Intelligence Those Darn Dots Connecting the Dots is not good analytical tradecraft !
National Intelligence Types of Data Obvious Less Obvious Hidden
National Intelligence Three Levels of Analysis ● Basic Research ● Directed Research ● Current Reporting
National Intelligence Where Did the Other Two Go? ● Current Reporting
National Intelligence Quality of Intelligence Iraq WMD ● National Estimate (NIE) ● CURVEBALL ● Powell’s UN Speech “We conclude that the Intelligence Community was dead wrong in almost all of its pre-war judgments about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. This was a major intelligence failure.” Commission of the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction, March 31, 2005.
National Intelligence CIA Reorganization C.I.A. to Be Overhauled to Fight Modern Threats CIA Chief Says Overhaul Puts Spies and Analysts ‘Cheek by Jowl' CIA Director John Brennan considering sweeping organizational changes CIA Director Proposes Radical Reorganization ● Current Reporting
National Intelligence Reactions Head of CIA’s Clandestine Services Abruptly Retires Leading Intelligence Expert Expresses Concern New CIA will be “. . .too driven by short-term objectives…” “US Intel Vets Oppose Brennan’s CIA Plan” ● Current Reporting
National Intelligence Brennan’s Motivations ● “information moves at blinding speed and is instantaneously available throughout the globe, which has fundamentally changed our way of life.” ● Brennan’s speciality in the Obama White House was counterterrorism ● The base model for the agency reorganization is the Counterterrorism Center , an amalgam of undercover spies and analysts charged with hunting, and often killing, militant suspects across the globe.
National Intelligence
National Intelligence Costs of the War on Terror ● FY 2014-2017 $1.7 trillion (Cost of Vietnam War adjusting for inflation $368 billion) ● Number of Americans killed in the U.S. by terrorists since 9/11 -- 45 ● Adopting “targeted killings” for the first time in U.S. history ● Death of at least two Americans from Drone attacks (Appears serial killers and other mass murders have more constitutional rights than an American who turns to terrorism) ● Created the impression in the minds of many that torture is effective
National Intelligence Lost Opportunity Costs ● U.S. Military run into the ground ● Other more dangerous threats than terrorism short changed or ignored -- especially Air Force and Navy modernization ● Funds unavailable for other domestic needs such as infrastructure ● Reduced influence on world affairs ● Loss of moral high ground in international affairs
National Intelligence This is what the UN has said: “...many of the justifications for targeted killings offered by one or other of the relevant States in particular current contexts would in all likelihood not gain their endorsement if they were to be asserted by other States in the future.”
National Intelligence Questions/Discussion
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