Adirondack Rail Corridor Economic Impact Study Commissioned By: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Adirondack Rail Corridor Economic Impact Study Commissioned By: Commissioned By: Prepared By: Prepared By: What we are going to tell you g g y Outline the study focus & methodology. Determine the construction costs for each
Commissioned By: Prepared By: Commissioned By: Prepared By:
What we are going to tell you g g y
S i th t d fi di
January 24, 2011 2
The objective of this Study was to determine the construction costs & projected economic impact for three scenarios p j p
Scenario 1
improved passenger transport from Lake Placid to Tupper Lake.
Rails Without Trails
corridor to multi‐use recreational trail.
Scenario 2A Permanent Conversion to Trail Conversion to Trail
to a multi use recreational trail with a
Scenario 2B
to a multi‐use recreational trail, with a use agreement being established between DOT and the trail organization.
Temporary Conversion to Trail
January 24, 2011 3
The Study excluded a rails with trails scenario because widening portions of the corridor would cause significant environmental impacts & increased costs
Th id t t ith l t & i l The corridor transects areas with rare plants & animals, significant wild communities, & classified water bodies. The corridor contains causeways & bridges that cross lakes, streams, g , , & wetland areas. To accommodate a rail with trail scenario, the rail bed will have to be widened by about 20 ft; resulting in a major environmental impact on the many sections with rock
January 24, 2011 4
cuts & embankments.
January 24, 2011 5
Estimated construction costs were based on a site assessment, existing documentation, & costs from recent rail/trail projects
Construction Cost Estimates
g , p j
Our estimated construction cost methodology included:
condition of rail corridor.
Sample track condition on Sample track condition on Example of a multi‐use January 24, 2011 6 line from Saranac Lake to Tupper Lake (FRA Class I) line from Lake Placid to Saranac Lake (FRA Class II) recreational trail
The rail costs are built on the requirement to upgrade to FRA* Class III (60mph) to reduce round-trip travel time
Construction Cost Estimates
( p ) p
Scenario 1: Repair & Upgrade Rail ITEM DESCRIPTION TOTAL COST 1 Track Reconstruction $ 5,090,000 1 Track Reconstruction $ 5,090,000 2 Bridge & Sub Structure Repairs $ 260,000 3 Crossing Improvements $ 30,000 4 Crossing Repairs $ 50,000 5 Automated Crossing Protection (6 crossings) $ 1 350 000 5 Automated Crossing Protection (6 crossings) $ 1,350,000 6 Culvert Repairs/Replacement $ 400,000 7 Fencing (New/Replacement) $ 10,000 8 Station Rehabilitation/Repairs $ 490,000 Subtotal: $ 7,680,000 Contingency (15%): $ 1,152,000 Subtotal: $ 8,832,000 Engineering Legal Const Admin (20%) $ 1 766 400 Engineering, Legal, Const. Admin. (20%) $ 1,766,400 TOTAL: $ 10,598,400 ROUNDED TOTAL: $ 10,600,000 January 24, 2011 7 * FRA = Federal Railroad Administration
The cost to permanently convert the rail corridor to a trail is reduced by $2.7 m in salvage credit for rails and ties
Construction Cost Estimates
Scenario 2A: Abandon Rail ‐ Permanent Conversion to Trail
ITEM DESCRIPTION TOTAL COST
1 Track Removal $ 2,100,000 2 Salvage Credit for Ties $ (1,300,000)
y $ g
2 Salvage Credit for Ties $ (1,300,000) 3 Salvage Credit for Rails $ (1,400,000) 4 Regrading Ballast for Trailbed $ 1,200,000 5 Bridge & Sub Structure Repairs / Modifications for Trail $ 260,000 6 Culvert Repairs / Replacements $ 400,000 7 Trail Installation $ 6 200 000 7 Trail Installation $ 6,200,000 8 Timber Guiderail on Embankments $ 900,000 9 Road Crossing Treatment $ 300,000 10 Erosion & Sediment Control $ 1,100,000 11 Trail Facilities/Amenities $ 200,000 12 A C t l (B ll d d G t t R d C i ) $ 300 000 12 Access Control (Bollards and Gates at Road Crossings) $ 300,000 13 Legal Fees & Permitting $ 350,000 Subtotal: $ 10,610,000 Contingency (15%): $ 1,591,500 Subtotal: $ 12,201,500 Engineering, Legal, Const. Admin. (20%) $ 2,440,300 TOTAL: $ 14,641,800 ROUNDED TOTAL: $ 14,600,000 January 24, 2011 8
The cost to temporarily convert the rail corridor to a trail provides no salvage credit & includes the cost to store the track
Construction Cost Estimates
Scenario 2B: Temporary Conversion to Trail ITEM DESCRIPTION TOTAL COST 1 Track Removal $ 2,100,000
p g
2 Track Storage (10 Years) $ 500,000 3 Regrading Ballast for Trailbed $ 1,200,000 4 Bridge & Sub Structure Repairs / Modifications for Trail $ 260,000 5 Culvert Repairs / Replacements $ 400,000 6 Trail Installation $ 6 200 000 6 Trail Installation $ 6,200,000 7 Timber Guiderail on Embankments $ 900,000 8 Road Crossing Treatment $ 300,000 9 Erosion & Sediment Control $ 1,100,000 10 Trail Facilities/Amenities $ 200,000 l ( ll d d d ) $ 11 Access Control (Bollards and Gates at Roads) $ 300,000 12 Legal Fees and Permitting $ 150,000 Subtotal: $ 13,610,000 Contingency (15%): $ 2,041,500 Subtotal: $ 15,651,500 Engineering, Legal, Const. Admin. (20%) $ 3,130,300 TOTAL: $ 18,781,800 ROUNDED TOTAL: $ 18,800,000 January 24, 2011 9
All scenarios assume professional engineering & construction; grants & volunteer involvement could substantially lower costs
Construction Cost Estimates
Total Per
g y
Construction Costs
Scenario 1 Total Mile Scenario 1 Rails Without Trails Scenario 2A
$10,600,000 $320,000
Scenario 2A Permanent Conversion to Trail
$14,600,000 $440,000
Scenario 2B Temporary Conversion to Trail
$18,800,000 $550,000
January 24, 2011 10
January 24, 2011 11
The economic impact study determined the changes in spending, jobs & earnings due to a “change in final demand” (i.e. new visitor dollars)
Economic Impact Estimates
g g ( )
The steps in our economic impact study methodology:
Franklin & Essex Counties
Net new visitor spending
Include: Train riders bikers & snowmobilers
Include: Train riders, bikers, & snowmobilers Exclude: Runners, hikers, & x‐country skiers*
* There are many existing trails throughout the study area for these activities & it is unlikely that an additional trail would attract net new runners, hikers, & x‐country skiers to the Study Area. January 24, 2011 12
Estimates of spending by visitor type are based on existing studies
Economic Impact Estimates
Visitor spending categories:
i
p Spending by visitor type:
Travel & Tourism Research Center SUNY Travel & Tourism Research Center ‐ SUNY Potsdam) Spend more on retail & recreation Average $125 per day
ID studies) Spend more on food, lodging, & transportation
January 24, 2011 13
transportation Average $110 per day
Rail: Net new train rider projections are based on five similar rail excursion case studies and ASR’s existing ridership
Economic Impact Estimates
g p
Estimate of 8,400 net new annual train riders based on:
by experience of 5 case studies
80% non local ridership based on ASR experience
Spending Categories Spending (1/2 Day) 1 Total Spending Spending by 8,400 Train Riders p g ( y) Food $13.91 $116,808 Retail $14.27 $119,835 Recreation $16.53 $138,867 Lodging $11.92 $100,155 g g $ $ , Transportation $5.61 $47,104 Total $62.23 $522,769
as a result of riding the train.
January 24, 2011 14
g
Rail: The EMSI model translates direct net new spending into total spending, jobs & earnings
Economic Impact Estimates
p g, j g
Direct Impacts: Job creation & earnings as a direct result of net new visitor spending Indirect / Induced Impacts: Additional spending, job creation & earnings that occur in Franklin and Essex Counties as dollars cycle thru the economy cycle thru the economy.
Impact Category Direct Indirect / Induced Total Rail Scenario: Annual Economic Impact of Net New Spending Impact Category Direct Indirect / Induced Total Spending $522,769 $235,246 $758,014 Jobs 1 10 3 13 Earnings $201,974 $105,026 $307,000 g $ , $ , $ ,
w orked in one year.
January 24, 2011 15
Trail (Part 1): Net new biker projections are based on usage data from six similar rail-to-trail conversion case studies
Economic Impact Estimates
Estimate of 18,850 net new bikers based on the average usage from 6 case studies that were: 6 case studies that were:
Si il i l h d il
Spending Categories Spending (1/2 Day)1 Net New Spending Net New Spending by 18,850 Trail Users (Bikers) Food $13.91 $262,076 Retail $14.27 $268,866 Recreation $16.53 $311,567 Lodging $11.92 $224,713 Transportation $5.61 $105,684 Total $62.23 $1,172,907
Study Area as a result of using the trail.
January 24, 2011 16
y g
Trail (Part 2): Net new snowmobile days projections are based
Economic Impact Estimates
Estimate of 9,200 net new snowmobile days based on:
, ,
DEC
12 k bil ti t f NYS S bil A
January 24, 2011 17
Trail (Part 2): Net new snowmobiler spending projections are based on estimated mileage on the corridor
Economic Impact Estimates
g
Average of 45 miles on corridor per snowmobiler based on: based on:
Net New Snowmobile Spending (9,200 people traveling 45 miles on average on corridor) Spending Categories Spending Per Snowmobile Day 1 Corridor Spending per Snowmobiler Total Food $32.45 $11.68 $107,529 Retail $11.51 $4.14 $38,155 L d i $38 73 $13 94 $128 341 Lodging $38.73 $13.94 $128,341 Transportation $28.26 $10.17 $93,654 Total $110.95 $39.94 $367,680
January 24, 2011 18
Trail (Part 3): The existing non-local train rider spending would be lost if the rail line were replaced by a trail
Economic Impact Estimates
p y
Estimate of 11,200 existing non‐local train riders based on:
Spending by Existing 11 200 Non Local Train Riders Spending Categories Spending (1/2 Day)1 Existing Rail Spending Food $13.91 $155,744 Shopping $14.27 $159,780 Spending by Existing 11,200 Non-Local Train Riders pp g , Recreation $16.53 $185,155 Lodging $11.92 $133,540 Transportation $5.61 $62,805 Total $62 23 $697 025 Total $62.23 $697,025
Area as a result of riding the train.
January 24, 2011 19
Trail (Part 4): The total net new trail spending = net new biker & snowmobiler spending minus existing non-local train rider spending
Economic Impact Estimates
N t N T il S di Spending Categories Net New Biker Spending Net New Snowmobiler Spending Existing Train Rider Spending TOTAL Food $262 076 $107 529 $155 744 $213 861 Net New Trail Spending Food $262,076 $107,529
$213,861 Shopping $268,866 $38,155
$147,242 Recreation $311,567 $0
$126,412 Lodging $224,713 $128,341
$219,514 Transportation $105,684 $93,654
$136,534 Transportation $105,684 $93,654 $62,805 $136,534 Total $1,172,907 $367,680
$843,562
January 24, 2011 20
Trail: The EMSI model translates direct net new spending into total spending, jobs & earnings
Economic Impact Estimates
p g, j g
Direct Impacts: Job creation & earnings as a direct result of net new visitor spending Indirect / Induced Impacts: Additional spending, job creation & earnings that occur in Franklin and Essex Counties as dollars cycle thru the economy cycle thru the economy.
Impact Category Direct Indirect / Induced Total Trail Scenario: Annual Economic Impact of Net New Spending Impact Category Direct Indirect / Induced Total Spending $843,562 $379,603 $1,223,165 Jobs 1 15 5 20 Earnings $319 608 $169 392 $489 000 Earnings $319,608 $169,392 $489,000
w orked in one year.
January 24, 2011 21
Both the rail and the trail scenarios have a positive economic impact on the study area
Summary of Key Findings: Upgraded Rail Permanent Conversion to Trail Temporary Conversion to Trail
p y
Costs * Capitalized Construction Costs $10,600,000 $14,600,000 $18,800,000 A l D bt S i ($779 967) ($1 074 294) ($1 383 337) Annual Debt Service ($779,967) ($1,074,294) ($1,383,337) Benefits Annual Net New Spending $758,014 $1,223,165 $1,223,165 Spending Permanent Job Creation 13 20 20 Annual Earnings – Permanent Basis $307,000 $489,000 $489,000 Temporary Job Creation 171 300 300 Earnings from $6 814 000 $11 957 000 $11 957 000
January 24, 2011 22
Construction Phase $6,814,000 $11,957,000 $11,957,000
* All scenarios assume professional engineering & construction; the acquisition of grants & volunteer involvement could substantially lower costs.
The final report and this presentation will be available
Economic Impact Estimates
g
The URLs for the final report and presentation are:
Questions: Questions:
email with copies to all attendees.
January 24, 2011 23