Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Watersheds T. Sullivan, K. Snyder, D. Moore T. Sullivan, K. Snyder, D. Moore E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc . . E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc B. Cosby B. Cosby University of Virginia University of Virginia C. Driscoll, J. Zhai C. Driscoll, J. Zhai Syracuse University Syracuse University I. Fernandez I. Fernandez University of Maine, Orono Orono University of Maine, A. Herlihy A. Herlihy Oregon State University Oregon State University R. Stemberger Stemberger R. Dartmouth College Dartmouth College C. Boylen Boylen, S. , S. Nierzwicki Nierzwicki- -Bauer Bauer C. Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute T. McDonnell, N. Nowicki T. McDonnell, N. Nowicki SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry J. Sutherland J. Sutherland NYS Department of Environmental Conservation NYS Department of Environmental Conservation October, 2005 October, 2005 1
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Research Partners: Research Partners: � Adirondack Lakes Survey Corporation � Adirondack Lakes Survey Corporation � Dartmouth College � Dartmouth College � New York Department of � New York Department of Environmental Conservation Environmental Conservation � New York State Energy Research and � New York State Energy Research and Development Authority Development Authority � Oregon State University � Oregon State University � Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute � Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute � Syracuse University � Syracuse University � University of Maine � University of Maine � University of Virginia � University of Virginia October, 2005 October, 2005 2
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds OUTLINE OUTLINE Background and Objectives Background and Objectives Approach Approach Results Results � Soils � Soils � Lakewater � Lakewater Past and Future Projections • Linkage to Biology • � How Well Do ALTM/AEAP � How Well Do ALTM/AEAP Watersheds Represent the Adirondack Watersheds Represent the Adirondack Lake Population? Lake Population? Preliminary Conclusions Preliminary Conclusions October, 2005 October, 2005 3
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds MAJOR OBJECTIVES: MAJOR OBJECTIVES: � Develop approaches for extrapolating � Develop approaches for extrapolating spatially- -limited knowledge regarding limited knowledge regarding spatially chemical and biological recovery of chemical and biological recovery of acid- -sensitive lakes and their sensitive lakes and their acid watersheds to the regional population watersheds to the regional population of Adirondack lakes and watersheds of Adirondack lakes and watersheds � Develop a statistically � Develop a statistically- -representative representative soils database for the Adirondack soils database for the Adirondack region region � Classify watersheds according to their � Classify watersheds according to their responsiveness to ongoing and future responsiveness to ongoing and future changes in S and/or N deposition changes in S and/or N deposition October, 2005 October, 2005 4
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds APPROACH: APPROACH: � Statistically select a � Statistically select a subsample subsample of of watersheds for regional watersheds for regional characterization characterization � Compile watershed data � Compile watershed data � Conduct a soil survey � Conduct a soil survey � Implement Quality Assurance/Quality � Implement Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) procedures Control (QA/QC) procedures � Apply the MAGIC and the � Apply the MAGIC and the PnET PnET- -BGC BGC models to 70 study watersheds models to 70 study watersheds � Classify watersheds according to � Classify watersheds according to responsiveness responsiveness � Compare and contrast model output � Compare and contrast model output from MAGIC and PnET PnET- -BGC BGC from MAGIC and October, 2005 October, 2005 5
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds October, October, 2005 2005 6
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds RESULTS TO DATE: RESULTS TO DATE: Soil Conditions Soil Conditions 70 Watersheds 70 Watersheds 199 Locations 199 Locations October, October, 2005 2005 7
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds October, October, 2005 2005 8
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds October, October, 2005 2005 9
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Big Moose Lake N Deposition 10 9 8 Total Annual Deposition (Kg N/ha/yr) 7 NO3 Hindcast NO3 Base 6 NO3 Mod NO3 Aggr 5 NH4 Hindcast NH4 Base 4 NH4 Mod NH4 Aggr 3 2 - -N + -N NO 3 NH 4 1 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Big Moose Lake S Deposition 25 20 Total Annual Deposition (Kg S/ha/yr) 15 SO4 Hindcast SO4 Base SO4 Mod SO4 Aggr 10 5 2- -S SO 4 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year October, 2005 October, 2005 10
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds MAGIC Model PnET-BGC Model 250 250 µ µ ANC ( eq/L) ANC ( eq/L) 1:1 1:1 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 Simulated Chemistry -50 -50 -100 -100 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 8 8 pH pH 1:1 1:1 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 4 5 6 7 8 Observed Chemistry October, 2005 October, 2005 11
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Simulated water chemistry percentile values for the population* of potentially acid-sensitive Adirondack lakes, based on the MAGIC model, for the period from 1850 to 2100, assuming existing S and N emissions control regulations. Percentile Variable Year 10 25 50 75 90 ANC 1850 28 72 95 174 253 1900 29 69 97 180 259 1980 4 25 64 133 189 1990 4 31 63 118 180 2000 6 35 67 117 183 2050 0 35 67 129 200 2100 -7 32 61 132 200 * Percentages are based on the population of 1,320 Adirondack lakes having ANC less than 200 : eq/L. This population constitutes a subset (based on having ANC # 200 : eq/L) of the larger population of 1,817 Adirondack lakes greater than 1 ha depicted on 1:100,000-scale topographic maps October, 2005 October, 2005 12
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds REPLACE BASE CASE WITH REPLACE BASE CASE WITH MODERATE ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL MODERATE EMISSIONS CONTROLS EMISSIONS CONTROLS Simulated water chemistry percentile values for the population* of potentially acid-sensitive Adirondack lakes, based on the MAGIC model, for the period from 1850 to 2100, assuming existing S and N emissions control regulations. Percentile Variable Year 10 25 50 75 90 ANC 1850 28 72 95 174 253 1900 29 69 97 180 259 1980 4 25 64 133 189 1990 4 31 63 118 180 2000 6 35 67 117 183 2050 0 9 35 47 67 79 129 144 200 217 2100 -7 6 32 45 61 74 132 153 200 223 * Percentages are based on the population of 1,320 Adirondack lakes having ANC less than 200 : eq/L. This population constitutes a subset (based on having ANC # 200 : eq/L) of the larger population of 1,817 Adirondack lakes greater than 1 ha depicted on 1:100,000-scale topographic maps October, 2005 October, 2005 13
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds October, October, 2005 2005 14
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds October, October, 2005 2005 15
Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Assessment of Adirondack Watersheds Estimated number of Adirondack lakes below ANC and pH criteria values for the population of 1,320 Adirondack lakes larger than 1 ha that have ANC less than 200 : eq/L, based on MAGIC model simulations for 44 statistically-selected lakes ANC ( : eq/L) pH # 0 # 20 # 50 # 5.0 # 5.5 # 6.0 Year 1850 0 0 174 93 93 186 1900 0 104 216 93 93 186 1980 96 266 505 175 330 443 1990 82 279 505 175 326 426 2000 82 217 399 159 268 381 2050* 82 229 437 142 268 379 2100* 175 229 437 159 284 422 * Percentages are based on the population of 1,320 Adirondack lakes having ANC less than 200 : eq/L. This population constitutes a subset (based on having ANC # 200 : eq/L) of the larger population of 1,817 Adirondack lakes greater than 1 ha depicted on 1:100,000-scale topographic maps October, 2005 October, 2005 16
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