A Global Coffee & Tea Champion Presentation to Analysts
June 24, 2020
A Global Coffee & Tea Champion Presentation to Analysts June - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
A Global Coffee & Tea Champion Presentation to Analysts June 24, 2020 Disclaimer THIS PRESENTATION AND ITS CONTENTS ARE NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN WHOLE OR IN PART, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN ANY JURISDICTION IN
June 24, 2020
2
THIS PRESENTATION AND ITS CONTENTS ARE NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN WHOLE OR IN PART, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN ANY JURISDICTION IN VIOLATION OF THE RELEVANT SECURITIES LAWS OF SUCH
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3 Casey Keller
Chief Executive Officer
Years of experience in the industry: 28 Years of experience at JDE Peet’s: 2
Scott Gray
Chief Financial Officer
Years of experience in the industry: 11
5
Coffee & Tea player globally in CPG
cups served per week
FY19 Adj. EBIT margin
FY19 Adj. EBIT Available in
100+ countries worldwide
FY16–19 Revenue CAGR
FY19 Revenue
in CPG and Out-of-Home markets1 A global team of
Associates Key stats Our iconic brands
1923 2014 1978 1996 1895 2004 1966 1995 1753 1999 1937 1987 1853 2001 1960 1992
Source: Euromonitor International as of January 2020 (#2 Coffee & Tea player globally in CPG, figures as of 2019), Company information (all other figures)
1 Latest market leadership positions available (Nielsen 2019 for CPG and OOH MM, OPEX/VCP, NL: POS 2018 for OOH) applied to FY 2019 revenue6
Experienced Team of Entrepreneurs and Long-Term Shareholders 5 The World’s Largest Pure-Play Coffee & Tea Player 2 Strong Growth and Profitability 4 Differentiated Consumer Reach Model 3 A Global Category with Attractive Growth Fundamentals 1
4,1% 2,9% 2,5% 1,1% 0,8% 0,4% 0,1%
Bottled Water Coffee & Tea Alcoholic Beverages Staple Foods Sports Drinks Carbonated Soft Drinks Juice
7
Coffee & Tea is a large category… …demonstrating strong and resilient historical growth…
Source: Euromonitor International as of December 2019 Note: Figures reflect B2C Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) sales at retail sale prices (RSP) and total volume; exclude Ready-to-drink category and Out-of-Home channel
1 Excluding Russia, which is included in Rest of the World…with growth trajectory forecast to continue …outpacing other Food & Beverage categories…
RSP sales growth at constant 2019 prices (2007-19 CAGR) North America
€17.1bn
Rest of the World
€32.2bn
Global Coffee
€78bn
Europe1
€32.3bn
APAC
€36.3bn
Global Tea
€40bn
Global Coffee & Tea
€118bn
5,7 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,3 6,6 6,8 6,9 7,1 7,2 7,4 7,5 7,7 2,4 2,5 2,7 2,8 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,7 8,1 8,3 8,7 9,0 9,3 9,7 10,0 10,2 10,4 10,7 10,9 11,1 11,4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total volume (mmT)
CAGR Tea: 3.6% CAGR Coffee: 2.6%
Total volume (mmT) 7,7 8,6 3,7 4,3 12,9 2019 2024
CAGR Tea: 2.9% CAGR Coffee: 2.3%
11.4
1
8
From generic black to multiple need states Change towards a global footprint From In-Home to Out-of-Home reference From multiserve to single portioned
Source: Euromonitor International as of December 2019 Note: Figures represent CPG sales at RSP (current prices); exclude Ready-to-drink category and Out-of-Home channel
Coffee Market Value growth
CAGR 2014-19
Expectations with respect to shopping convenience Desire for more quality & authenticity Coffee as a healthy beverage Expectations with respect to sustainability Coffee as Ready-to-drink beverage
Emerging trends in Coffee
1
9
Source: Euromonitor International as of December 2019 Note: Figures represent CPG sales at RSP in 2019; exclude Ready-to-drink category and Out-of-Home channel
1 IndicativeCompany Coffee & Tea as %
CPG Coffee & Tea sales (RSP 2019) Ownership
€8.3bn To be listed €2.0bn Private €19.4bn Listed €4.4bn Listed €1.9bn Listed €1.4bn Listed €1.3bn Listed €1.0bn Listed
Own brands only
Players with presence in Coffee & Tea
Others Pure- players
/
CPG
2
Coffee Tea Coffee & Tea 25% 10% 14% 51% Global value share
10
Source: Euromonitor International as of January 2020 Note: Figures represent CPG sales at RSP in 2019; exclude Ready-to-drink category and Out-of-Home channel. Nestlé share includes Starbucks CPG
€78bn €40bn
75% Global value share
€118bn
Global CPG market size
16% 7% 12% 64% Global value share
Top 10: 36% Top 10: 49%
Next 8 combined Next 8 combined
Top 10: 25%
2
11
Single Serve Instant Roast & Ground Beans
7% 36% 21% 35% 100% 13% 29% 27% 30% 100%
2,4%
7,2 %
1,2%
3,9 %
Instant coffee Single serve Roast & Ground BeansRSP sales breakdown 2019 Volume growth (2014-19 CAGR) Global CPG Coffee market Corresponding revenue breakdown1
Total
3.1%
3
2 Source: Euromonitor International as of December 2019 (CPG coffee market sales breakdown and volume growth), Company information (Revenue breakdown) Note: Beans refers to Fresh Coffee Beans, Roast & Ground refers to Standard Fresh Ground Coffee, Single serve refers to Fresh Ground Coffee Pods, and Instant coffee refers to Instant Standard Coffee and Instant Coffee Mixes
1 FY 2019 and excluding Equipment, Retail, Tea, Liquid and Other 2 While Peet’s sells both Beans and Roast & Ground, all Peet’s coffee is categorized as Beans 3 Volume CAGR weighted for Coffee technologies market sizes 20192
Distribution across all channels
Go-to-market
CPG Out-of-Home Retail Online The largest owner of Coffee & Tea brands in the industry
Portfolio of brands
The only player operating across all technologies
Technology
Instant Beans Capsules Roast & Ground Pads T-Disk RTD Liquid
12
Source: Company information
A unique combination allowing:
Range of offers across price points Ability to premiumise across consumer propositions Fast deployment across countries and channels
3
Beans
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Roast & Ground
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Aluminium capsules
✓ ✓
Plastic capsules
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
K-Cups Pods By KDP By KDP By KDP By KDP By KDP
✓
By KDP
Pads
✓ ✓
T-Disk2
✓ ✓
By JDE
Freeze-Dried
✓ ✓ ✓
White Coffee
✓ ✓
Spray-Dried
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Agglo
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
RTD
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Tea
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
13
Single Serve
Instant Other Beans, Roast & Ground
Source: Company information
1 In 2018, Nestlé and Starbucks formed a global coffee alliance granting Nestlé the perpetual rights to market Starbucks Consumer Packaged Goods and Foodservice products globally, outside of thecompany’s coffee shops. The Starbucks brand portfolio is now represented on Nestlé’s single-serve capsule systems
2 For Nestlé, refers to Dolce Gusto1 1
3
14 Technology Portfolio
Go-to-market
Source: Nielsen (value shares and instant pricing), Company information (all other figures)
1 Aluminum capsule global trademark licensing 2 Represent market shares in 34 countries excluding the US 3 Represent market shares in 40 key countries excluding the US 4 Refers to Dec-19 LTM20%
22%
2015 20194
Strong momentum in market share
Premium Mainstream Value Value share in instant coffee3
Innovation across technologies
120 100
Market average
Instant
Pricing
Super premium Premium Mainstream Value
26%
47%
Q1-17 Q3-19
Exceptional market share gains in a growing market
In less than 2 years, present in 35 markets
(Global/Regional/Local)
Constant innovation
Value share in NCC2
Aluminium capsules
13
Environmental, Social & Governance
15
Source: Company information
1 For JDECommon Grounds Minimised Footprint Connected People
Addressing the priority issues in our supply chain Reducing our environmental impact step-by-step Exceeding societies’ expectations
100% responsibly sourced green Coffee & Tea1 by 2025 100% recyclable or compostable packaging by 20251 Gender balanced management positions by 20251
We are driven by our passion for Coffee & Tea, respect for the environment and care for people
Selected KPI: Selected KPI: Selected KPI:
3
Revenue progression from solid organic volume / mix and bolt-on M&A, while passing through the commodity benefits to customers Operational leverage, driving continued margin expansion, from volume increase, premiumisation and cost discipline Strong and steady cash flow generation enabling debt reduction while funding bolt-on M&A
Key value creation drivers
16
Financial highlights
FY19 Revenue
2017-19 Revenue CAGR
FY19 free cash flow
FY19 free cash flow conversion %1
FY19 Adj. EBIT
FY19 Adj. EBIT margin
reduction FY17-192
FY17-193
Source: Company information
1 Free cash flow conversion % defined as free cash flow/ Adj. EBITDA 2 Excluding IFRS 16 impact 3 Excluding Peet’s acquisition2017-19
FY19 Adj. EBITDA
(+5.4% CAGR 2016-19)
4
6,530 (3.6%) 6,664 (2.8%) 6,945 +4.0% +2.4% (3.3%) +1 .1% +5.0% +3.6%
2017 Price Volume /mix M&A FX 2018 Price Volume /mix M&A FX 2019
17
2017 – 2019 revenue bridge (€m)
Quality growth with solid volume/mix (within a range of +3–5%), supported by:
─ Underlying market momentum ─ Consumer relevant propositions across
geographies (capsules, premium instant and mixes)
─ Continued increase of Peet’s CPG household
penetration in the US
─ Expansion of premium beans offering and market
share Successful integration of bolt-on M&A activity, notably:
─ APAC – OldTown (2018) and Super Group (2017) ─ Tea – Ofçay (2018) ─ OOH – Maison Lyovel (2017) and JOBmeal (2018)
Disciplined pricing management following green coffee price deflation over 2017-2019
CAGR ‘17-’19: +3.1% +2.1% +4.2%
YoY growth Source: Company information
4
1,065 221 (36) (7 9) 1,171 1 12 (28) 1,255
2017 Adj. gross profit Adj. A&P Adj. SG&A (excl. A&P) 2018 Adj. gross profit Adj. A&P Adj. SG&A (excl. A&P) 2019
Absolute Adjusted EBIT growing ahead of revenue growth (2017-19 CAGR of +8.5%) Largely driven by strong volume/mix, M&A and improved gross margin as a result of:
─ Volume growth and premiumisation ─ Manufacturing footprint optimisation and scale
efficiencies
─ Culture of disciplined cost competitiveness and M&A
integration
Increased marketing investment behind targeted
growth priorities and innovation launches, while driving efficiencies through digital that offset continued reach investment in 2019 Increase in 2018 and 2019 are mainly driven by investment in acquisitions and ventures, as well as capabilities (e.g. digital and e-commerce, R&D in Asia) and some wage inflation
18
2017 – 2019 Adj. EBIT bridge (€m)
1 2 3
1 2 3
Source: Company information
1 Adjusted gross profit is defined as gross profit (Revenue – Cost of Sales) adjusted for the same factors aslisted under the Operating profit to Adj. EBIT reconciliation insofar they relate to gross profit
2 Adjusted A&P is defined as A&P adjusted for the same factors as listed under the Operating profit to Adj.EBIT reconciliation insofar they relate to A&P
3 Adjusted SG&A (excl. A&P) is defined as SG&A (excl. A&P) adjusted for the same factors as listed under theOperating profit to Adj. EBIT reconciliation insofar they relate to SG&A (excl. A&P)
3 2 1
YoY growth
+9.9% +7.2% Margin: 16.3% Margin: 18.1% Margin: 17.6% +c.130bps +c.50bps CAGR ‘17-’19: +8.5%
3 2 1
1 2 3
4
685 1,031 1,178
2017 2018 2019
19
Source: Company information
2 Pre-IFRS 16 free cash flow of €1,094m and pre-IFRS 16 free cash flow conversion of 74.1% 1 Free cash flow conversion % defined as free cash flow/ Adj. EBITDA 3 Defined as Total borrowings – Cash and Cash Equivalents (less Restricted Cash) – Borrowings frommembers of the JAB Group
4 Leverage pre- and post-IFRS 16 is 3.1x in both casesFree cash flow3 (€m)
53.0% 74.0% 75.9%2
Free cash flow conversion %1
2
Free cash flow
5,657 5,187 4,545
2017 2018 2019 Estimated at IPO
Leverage (Adj. net debt3 / Adj. EBITDA) 4,793 4.4x 3.7x 3.1x4
IFRS 16 (+€248m)
~3.6x
Including net debt related to Peet’s acquisition offset by primary proceeds IFRS 16
Net debt and leverage
4
20
Financial targets
Dividend payout ratio Leverage
(Net debt / Adj. EBITDA)
By the end of H1 2021
Revenue organic growth
(at constant commodity prices)
Free cash flow conversion
(FCF / Adj. EBITDA)
50-60% < 3.0x 3–5% 5–8% ~70% Medium- to long-term Key value creation drivers
▪
Quality growth, consistent with historical trends, driven by organic volume/mix
▪
Disciplined execution of the growth priorities and pricing management
▪
Margin expansion from operational leverage, driven by volume expansion and premiumisation
▪
Consistent financial discipline, with high free cash flow conversion, dividend payout, and deleverage
▪
Intention to be investment grade rated within 1 to 2 years
Source: Company information
4
21
Household penetration of Peet’s in the US Emerging market growth and exposure Embrace new growth pool Capture the attractive OOH
Source: Nielsen as of December 2019
Full scale potential
premium beans globally
China Retail Tea Ready-to-drink
4,3% 4,8% 5,5%
2017 2018 2019 Peet’s Brand US Household Penetration
Aluminum capsule global trademark licensing
4
22
While the COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented developments, including for the Group’s associates, customers
and suppliers, it has also reaffirmed the Group’s relative resilience at a time of global economic turmoil
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the supply chain and operations in a variety of ways, including:
– All manufacturing facilities have continued running with preventive measures put in place – Retail coffee stores have either been temporarily closed or have implemented limited operations – Customer service levels have been somewhat adversely affected, but have remained strong – IT networks have held up against a surge in demand from working remotely – Within the Out-of-Home segment and retail coffee stores sales channel a large number of employees have been furloughed
JDE Peet’s donated 18 million cups of coffee to support health service employees and communities in need Thanks to its global manufacturing and supply network, its large portfolio of trusted brands and its diversified go-to-
market approach, the Group has been able to weather past crises and believes it is well-positioned to withstand current developments
Source: Company information
4
Solid Q1 performance in line with medium- to long-term targets
– Like-for-like total sales growth of +3.5% YoY – Double-digit adj. EBIT growth YoY, from increased volume/mix and reduced SG&A – Resilient liquidity, strong free cash flow and improved leverage ratio (reduction of 0.2x since Dec-19)
While timing of macro-economic recovery is uncertain, on track to deliver on medium- to long-term targets
Segments
‒ Peet’s ‒ CPG Europe ‒ CPG LARMEA ‒ CPG APAC ‒ Out-of-Home
Sales channels Portfolio
‒ (~80%) CPG, Online ‒ (~20%) Retail, OOH ‒ All technologies ‒ Developed &
emerging markets
‒ Power & local brands
Note: Figures are unaudited
Volume/ mix
+4.6% +3.7% +15.5% +6.5% (4.8)%
Reported revenue growth Peet’s CPG Europe Out-of-Home CPG LARMEA CPG APAC
23 4
Coffee “essential” in developed markets and coffee growing countries > emerging markets
Increased at home consumption exceeds initial pantry loading
Consumers gravitating towards trusted brands
Importance of full portfolio offering (technologies, brands, price points)
Increased at home premiumisation
Acceleration of e-commerce
24
Source: Company information
4
25
Senior leadership team
Highly engaged team of
associates throughout the
Exceptionally motivated
partners in full alignment of interest with shareholders
Experienced management
team with proven ability to drive revenue
Deep and broad bench of
KPI driven marketing executives
Motivation-driven
recruitment process
Source: Company information Note: Flags reflect nationalities
1 Including predecessor companiesAnne-Marie Poliquin General Counsel 1 Chris Brighton VP RD&O 29 Nathalie Slechte VP Global HR 5 Shawn Conway President of Peet’s 10 Lara Brans President APAC 21 Philippe Schaillee President Out-of-Home 25 Jiri Kulik President LARMEA 6 Oswald Barckhahn President Europe 3 Casey Keller Chief Executive Officer 2
Years of experience at JDE Peet’s1 Years of experience in the industry
30 22 21 25 25 24 32 26 28 Scott Gray Chief Financial Officer 11
5
Cash bonus based on achieving key operational targets. Significant equity incentive with five-year vesting period to ensure full alignment with public market investors
Annual grant of ~200% of base salary2 Senior management1 0%-~230%
Incentive Scope Amount Target(s) Vesting
Cash bonus Equity incentive LTI
Building blocks
Measures
Financial
Cash bonus
Own capital invested
Share price
Executive Ownership Plan EOP
Senior management1 investing own capital Bonus shares with five-years cliff vesting Short-term Mid-long term Senior management1 One-year Total company targets Five-year cliff vesting Share price
1 Please refer to pg. 25 for senior management team members 2 Based on weighted average of senior management team 3 Including anticipated 2020 investments26
5
Key performance indicators to measure the successful execution of the Company’s strategy which can relate to, inter alia:
Revenue Profit Operating working capital
Non-financial
Reflect performance on the key strategic objectives
28
Revenue breakdown3
Peet’s
% of Group revenue
Out-of-Home1
% of Group revenue
13% 14% CPG–Europe
% of Group revenue
47% CPG–APAC
% of Group revenue
10% CPG–LARMEA2
% of Group revenue
16%
Source: Company information
1 Division offering professional solutions, excluding United States Out-of-Home, which isincluded in the Peet’s segment
2 Latin America, Russia, Middle East and Africa 3 Excluding unallocated revenue of €26mFY 2019
Out-of- Home
√ √ ─ ─ ─
CPG
√ ─ √ √ √
Retail
438 coffee stores 45 coffee stores
─
Distribution channels Online
√ √ √ √ √
231 coffee stores
─
29
Modern and traditional retail trade
Grocery and convenience stores globally
CPG1
All coffee consumed Out-of-Home, e.g. in offices, hospitals and care homes, colleges & universities and hotels
Out-of-Home revenue grew at 4.5% CAGR 2017-19
Out-of-Home1
410 Peet’s stores (including China)2
231 OldTown stores
27 Coffee Company stores
18 12oz stores
15 Intelligentsia stores
13 Stumptown stores
Retail coffee stores
E-commerce
Peet’s #5 coffee brand on Amazon US at 1.5x category growth
Direct-to-consumer
Online revenue grew at ~25% CAGR 2017-19
Online 76%
16%
5%
3%
Source: Company information (growth rates, number of stores, revenue breakdown), Profitero, One Click Retail (Peet’s e-commerce figures) Note: Revenue breakdown as of FY 2019. Retail coffee stores figures as of 31 December 2019
1 Refers to channels. The distribution channels Online and Retail are shown separately; hence, the channels CPG and Out-of-Home do not correspond to the reporting segments as disclosed in the financial statements 2 Include owned and licensed stores in the US and China as well as Capital One stores30
45
manufacturing facilities
7,400+
FTEs
650+kt
produced volume1 Located in
25 countries
Global manufacturing footprint… …with an agile setup to address consumer demand in a cost effective way Coffee facilities Tea facilities
4 facilities ▪ Flexible production ▪ Multiple technologies and products ▪ New product launches Flex 13 facilities ▪ High-volume ▪ Focused on up to 2 technologies ▪ High asset utilisation Scale Local 28 facilities ▪ Proximity to consumers ▪ Rapid response to local consumer preferences
Coffee & Tea facilities Excellent quality, safety & service
<0.3
Total Incident Rate2
<5 Complaints
Per Million units shipped3 Certifications4
>98%
customer service fulfilment5 €0.8bn cumulated capital investment over the past 3 years
Source: Company information
1 Produced volume of coffee, tea, non-dairy creamer and cereal in 2019 2 Based on 2019 Total Incident Rate (TIR) 12 month moving average, excluding Peet’s segment (as defined(as defined on p.125). CPM computed as: (number of consumer complaints per month / average CU shipped in previous 2 months) x 1,000,000
4 90% of JDE’s factories have at least one certification 5 Based on 2019 On-time-in-full (OTIF) excluding Peet’s segment (as defined on p.59)31
Source: Company information Note: Percentages represent revenue breakdown as of FY 2019. Carte Noire: the Group holds the IP rights outside of the European Economic Area; Gevalia: the Group holds the IP rights outside of North America, Latin America and the Caribbean; Maxim: the Group holds the IP rights outside of South Korea and Japan; Maxwell House: the Group holds the IP rights outside of North America, Latin America and the Caribbean
1 Latest market leadership positions available (Nielsen 2019 for CPG and OOH MM, OPEX/VCP, NL: POS 2018 for OOH) applied to FY 2019 revenueOur #1/#2 market positions represent 79% of our revenue1
50+ brands addressing all consumer needs and price partitions, serving ~130bn cups per year at an average price point of €0.06/cup
Regional Heroes
31%
Local Brands
19%
Global Jewels
50%
Global trademark licensing agreement for aluminium capsules
32
Source: Company information
Our brand and product portfolio is uniquely designed to optimize overall consumer penetration and capture the maximum of purchasing occasions
Value Mainstream Premium Super Premium Ultra Premium
Launch in 2020
Global trademark licensing agreement for aluminium capsules Global trademark licensing agreement for aluminium capsules
United Kingdom Germany Brazil China United States
33
One of the fastest
growing premium CPG coffee brands in the US
The largest hand
roasted coffee globally
Self imposed superior
freshness
Out of the handful
billionaire global coffee brands, Jacobs is the fastest growing in the instant segment over the last 3 years1
>90% brand awareness
in its core markets
#36 countries
The fastest growing
single serve brand globally over the last 5 years
Remarkable global
brand awareness build-up in 3 years
#38 countries
The most accessible
consumer proposition in single serve of scale (from price/cup stand-point)
Proposition of 100%
compostable single serve pads
#15 countries
The first single serve
milk-based beverage (launched in 2004)
#22 countries
The most premium aluminium capsule in grocery stores
“Illy offers the best coffee that nature can offer, exalted by the experience of over 80 years of passion”
Source: Company information, Nielsen Note: Number of countries refers to Nielsen CPG in JDE Peet’s markets
1 Jacobs relaunched in 2016Global trademark licensing agreement for aluminium capsules
Illy company website
5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Blended (Arabica & Robusta) price (LHS) JDE Peet's revenue/kg (RHS)
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Green coffee commodity is subject to price volatility Price changes are passed through to customers up and down Yet, coffee consumption at home is inelastic Leading coffee brands, that support price, do protect margin and do not lose market share medium-term Hedging (no speculative positions / instruments), aligned with time ability to pass-on pricing up and down Track record of resilient absolute € margin/cup and cash flow, through disciplined pricing
Source: Company information, ICE (IntercontinentalExchange)
1 Average of NY ICE 2nd positions Arabica and Robusta Coffee futures, based on monthly average of daily closing prices converted into euro at the 6-month forward EUR/USD rate, presented with a 6-monthlag to JDE Peet’s revenue
2 Based on JDE Peet’s revenue for CPG–Europe Roast & GroundBlended Arabica & Robusta Coffee futures1 vs JDE Peet’s revenue/kg2 (€/kg) Dec-19
2
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