2020 Strategic Cost and Price Model Scotten W, Jones President - - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2020 Strategic Cost and Price Model

Scotten W, Jones – President - IC Knowledge LLC sjones@icknowledge.com

About IC Knowledge

• Formed in 2000
• The world leader in Cost and Price Modeling of Semiconductors and MEMS for
• ver 20 years.
• Founded by Scotten W. Jones, a Semiconductor and MEMS industry veteran with
• ver 35 years of experience including designing, building and running multiple

wafer fabs. Scott has also run a semiconductor division with P&L responsibility and had assembly and test operational experience.

• We leverage sub contractors and strategic partners to create a virtual company

with expanded capabilities.

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Strategic Cost and Price Model Overview

• IC Knowledge’s flagship cost and price model.
• The only model of its kind in the industry!
• Focused on leading edge technologies beginning with processes that came up on

300mm and forward looking as far as we can project.

• 300mm only.
• Wafer cost and price only, does not cover test or assembly/packaging - our

Assembly and Test Cost and Price Model covers test and assembly/packaging and can be used in conjunction with the Strategic Cost and Price Model for a complete product solution (bundled discount available).

• Our only model covering 2x and sub 2x DRAM, 3D NAND, and logic process not

yet in production.

• Fab, process, equipment and materials details are visible and editable.

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Companies and Processes

• The basic premise is to cover the top three companies in each segment although some

adjustments have been necessary.

• DRAM – Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix – starts with their first 300mm processes (around

130nm to 150nm) and projects out to 1c.

• NAND
• 2D NAND – company dependent (starting around 100nm) and out to 1z for Kioxia, Micron and

Samsung.

• 3D NAND – Intel 144L to 192L, Intel-Micron 32L to 96L, Kioxia 24L to 512L, Micron 128L to 512L, SK

Hynix 36L to 768L, Samsung 24L to 512L.

• Foundry – TSMC, Samsung, GLOBALFOUNDRIES – starts at 130nm/90nm depending on

company, forecasts out to 1.75nmnm by company and out to 0.90nm generically. Covers FinFETs and FDSOI.

• Logic – Intel from 130nm to 3nm (foundry 1.75nm equivalent), ST Micro from 130nm to

28nm (FDSOI).

• 3D XPoint – Intel-Micron out to 6L third generation.

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Fabs

• For all of the target companies and processes listed in the previous slides all of

the current and planned 300mm fabs in the world are covered (currently 118 fabs).

• For each fab the initial fab state and up to twelve upgrades are predefined and

user editable.

• Up to ten user defined fabs are supported.

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Fabs Database Sheet

Modeling

• When you pick a fab on

the main selection’ sheet you immediately have a fully populated model (the fab can be pre-defined or user defined).

• You can then explore

and edit details on dozens of model sheets.

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Main Selection Sheet

Example Cost Summary

• The cost summary on

the right is the top level wafer cost summary.

• There are many other

detailed cost outputs covering cost per block, cost per step, cost per die and more.

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Cost Summary Sheet

Cost Per Step

• Detailed cost information for every step in the process.
• Steps are listed alphabetically.
• A summary is provided by step type, for example CVD, Lithography, etc.
• Cost and also summarized by lithography (including all steps related to multi patterning)

and non lithography. For leading edge processes lithography costs are often over half the cost of the process.

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Cost Per Block

• Costs are summarized by process block and presented in the order that the blocks
• ccur in the current process being modeled.

9

Die Yield and Cost

• The model includes die yield (out to 2030) and cost estimates and includes an

extensive database of current die sizes with projected die sizes being added.

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Die Yield and Cost Sheet

Process Definition

• There are 2D NAND, 3D NAND, 3D XPoint, DRAM and Logic sheets that define the

processes at a block level, pitches and exposure types including multi-pattering and EUV usage. These sheets are user editable.

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Process Definition Sheet (2D NAND Shown)

Processes

• 197 pre defined processes:
• 2D NAND sheet – 29 2D NAND processes and 45nm NOR.
• 3D NAND – 41 processes out to 512 layers and beyond
• 3D XPoint, 2L, 4L and 6L
• DRAM – 48 processes out to 1c
• Logic – 66 company specific processes
• Logic – 9 generic processes, 150nm FSICIS, 90 BSICIS (CMOS images sensors), 90nm Silicon

Photonics, 5nm, 3.5nm and 2.5nm VSRAM, 1.75nm, 1.25nm, 0.90nm CFETs

• 10 user defined processes
• 2 each for 2D NAND, 3D NAND, 3D XPoint, DRAM and Logic.

12

Steps Summary

• The blocks from the product sheets get converted to steps on the process blocks

sheets and then summarized on the process steps sheet.

• The steps are editable on the process blocks sheet and the process steps sheet.

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Process Steps Sheet

Equipment Definition

• The equipment configuration sheet define throughput by process step, and

equipment cost and footprint by equipment type. This sheet is user editable.

• 105 equipment types are predefined.

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Equipment Configuration Sheet

Equipment Counts

• The fab configuration, process flows and equipment characteristics are all used to

build a virtual wafer fab and simulate the required equipment and materials.

• The equipment counts sheet displays the equipment required by fab state and

equipment type.

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Equipment Counts Sheet

Equipment Purchases

• Equipment purchases for capacity, process complexity and upgrades are

calculated for the initial equipment state and up to ten upgrade states.

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Equipment Purchases Sheet

Materials

• The material pricing sheet has material pricing by material and year and is user

editable.

• 241 materials are pre defined with pricing from 2000 to 2030.

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Material Pricing Sheet

Material Usage and Cost

• The Bill of Materials sheet defines material usage and cost by process step.
• Material usage is pulled from a user editable sheet that defines usage by step and node.
• Materials usage and costs are developed in cooperation with our partner Linx Consulting.

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Bill of Materials Sheet

Additional Information

• The preceding is just a sampling of the 39 detailed worksheets that make up the

model.

• Starting wafers, labor, capital, maintenance, facilities and materials are all treated

in detail.

• The model purchase price includes twelve month of updates with reasonable

email and phone support.

• The model has been extensively tested and validated.
• Model customers include the leading semiconductor equipment and materials

companies, IDMs, foundries and fabless companies.

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