Annual House Price Changes (New & Resale) 2014 Price Growth - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Annual House Price Changes (New & Resale) 2014 Price Growth - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Annual House Price Changes (New & Resale) 2014 Price Growth (Actual), 2015 Forecasts [New] CMHC Singles/Semis 6.8% [New] Statscan New Home Price Index 1.7% [Resale] MLS House Price Index 5.4% [Resale] Teranet House Price Index 4.9%


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0.5% 0.9% 1.3% 1.7% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.0% 4.0% 4.1% 4.9% 5.4% 1.7% 6.8%

0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% [New] Buzz Buzz Home Poll [Resale] CREA [New] CMHC [Resale] Fortress RDI [Resale] BMO Capital Markets [Resale] TD Economics [Resale] RBC Economics [Resale] Royal LePage [Resale] Will Dunning Inc [Resale] CMHC [New] Fortress RDI [Resale] Teranet House Price Index [Resale] MLS House Price Index [New] Statscan New Home Price Index [New] CMHC Singles/Semis

Annual House Price Changes (New & Resale) 2014 Price Growth (Actual), 2015 Forecasts

Source: Various Sources

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SLIDE 3

176,000 180,000 180,000 180,000 182,700 184,935 185,000 185,900 187,500 189,500 195,000 185,000 185,000 190,000 189,329 195,192 201,732 189,922

160,000 175,000 190,000 205,000 Buzz Buzz Home Public Poll Laurentian Bank Securities CIBC Economics BMO Capital Markets National Bank Will Dunning Inc Scotiabank TD Economics Fortress RDI CMHC Altus Group Long Term Demand (Trading Economics) Equilibrium per Analysts Long Term Demand (Urban Futures) 2014 5-Year Avg 10-Year Avg 50-Year Avg

Housing Starts in Canada Historical Averages, Long Term Demand & 2015 Forecasts

Source: Various Sources

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6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Units Completed & Unabsorbed, Under Construction Inventory & Annual Absorptions Calgary CMA: 2010 to 2014

Completed & Unabsorbed Absorptions Under Construction Source: CMHC

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272 346 1,088 917 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Housing Units Completed and Unabsorbed by Product Type Toronto CMA: December 2000 to 2014

Apartment Ground-Oriented

Source: CMHC

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6,280 5,201 9,445 6,318 7,226 6,070 4,769 3,317 3,841 2,728 3,903 3,049 4,285 5,140 5,798 4,642 5,156 $560 $440 $460 $480 $500 $520 $540 $560 $580 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14

Quarterly New Condominium Apartment Sales & Index Pricing Toronto CMA: 2010 to 2014

Sales Index Price (psf) Source: Urbanation Inc

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11,378 12,638 13,257 13,810 14,969 15,554 18,123 17,182 18,366 18,845 19,394 18,814 19,189 18,293 18,093 17,327 18.7% 20.7% 21.0% 20.0% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14

Remaining Inventory of New Condominium Apartments & Percent of Active Market Unsold Toronto CMA: 2010 to 2014

Unsold Supply % Unsold Source: Urbanation Inc

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37,706 39,196 42,573 45,560 47,655 52,695 56,336 57,461 59,338 58,659 55,320 53,603 51,499 52,464 21.2% 33.4% 34.4%

  • 10.6%
  • 20.0%
  • 10.0%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14

Condominium Apartments Under Construction & Annual Growth Rate for Units Under Construction Toronto CMA: 2010 to 2014

Units U/C Annual Growth Source: Urbanation Inc

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4,290 5,076 3,646 3,538 3,952 4,637 4,400 3,987 3,888 5,050 3,413 2,941 3,204 4,689 4,207 3,598 3,482 5,238 4,740 3,971 $434 $340 $350 $360 $370 $380 $390 $400 $410 $420 $430 $440 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14

Quarterly Condominium Apartment Resale Transactions & Index Pricing Toronto CMA: 2010 to Q3-2014

Resales Resale Index Price (psf) Source: Urbanation Inc

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Project Features

  • Toronto’s King West district
  • 11 Stories, 243 units incl.

ground level retail

  • 175,000 GFA, 145,000 NSA

Project Updates

  • Construction Start – Spring 2014
  • Over 80% sold to date
  • Construction at the 6th level
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Creative Loan Structure

  • Flexible blended floating rate loan [A/B piece] with Tier II and Tier III lenders
  • ‘B’ piece lender pay down during loan term, as ‘A’ piece lender sources additional

syndicate partners

PROJECT COSTS 72,000,000 $ SOURCES Amount % Construction Loan 49,000,000 $ 68% Purchaser Deposits 8,100,000 $ 11% Deferred Costs 3,900,000 $ 5% Land Equity 2,200,000 $ 3% Cash Equity 8,800,000 $ 12% TOTAL 72,000,000 $ 100%