Bay Area Economic & Residential Update YEAR - OVER - YEAR SALES, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Apr 09, 2024 202 likes •409 views

Bay Area Economic & Residential Update YEAR - OVER - YEAR SALES, PRICE AND RENT GROWTH* CURRENT PERFORMANCE ANNUAL CHANGE SAN FRANCISCO MEDIAN CONDOMINIUM RESALE PRICE $950,000 +14.8% CONDOMINIUM RESALE CLOSINGS 838 -13.8% AVERAGE RENT

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Bay Area Economic & Residential Update

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

YEAR-OVER-YEAR SALES, PRICE AND RENT GROWTH*

SAN FRANCISCO CURRENT PERFORMANCE ANNUAL CHANGE MEDIAN CONDOMINIUM RESALE PRICE $950,000 +14.8% CONDOMINIUM RESALE CLOSINGS 838

13.8%

AVERAGE RENT $3,229 +9.4% OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE CURRENT PERFORMANCE ANNUAL CHANGE MEDIAN RESALE PRICE $417,500 +23.5% RESALE CLOSINGS 273 +17.7% AVERAGE RENT $2,421 +10.3%

*For three months ending in July 31, 2014 compared to same period in 2013 Source: SFARMLS, EBRDI, Real Facts

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

Year

350k 360k 370k 380k 390k 400k 410k 420k 430k 440k 450k 460k 470k 480k 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Source: EDD

CURRENT CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 477,600

YEAR-OVER-YEAR JOB GROWTH

HEIGHT OF DOT-COM PEAK CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 456,700

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

Year Mortgage (30Year Fixed) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Source: FRED

CURRENT RATE 4.1%

HISTORICAL 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATES

RATE IN 1981 18.5%

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year Total Units

Number of Units Available New Construction Resales

Source: SFARMLS, Polaris Pacific

SAN FRANCISCO ACTIVE CONDOMINIUM INVENTORY

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Year Number of Months 10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: SFARMLS

MRI 2.1 MONTHS

SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM MARKET - MONTHS OF REMAINING INVENTORY

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE 5,000 10,000 15,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year Total Units

Number of Units New Housing Units Shortfall

Source: CBRE, EDD, Polaris Pacific

SHORTFALL OF 15,175 UNITS

SAN FRANCISCO HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

Quarter 2011 Q4 2012 Q2 2012 Q4 2013 Q2 2013 Q4 2014 Q2 Rents $2,400 $2,600 $2,800 $3,000 $3,200 $3,400

Source: Real Facts

AVERAGE RENT $3,229

SAN FRANCISCO RENTS

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

100 200 300 400 Year Year $0k $100k $200k $300k $400k $500k $600k $700k $800k $900k $1000k 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Resales Median Price

Source: SFARMLS

PREVIOUS PEAK PRICE $762,500 PRICE, 24.6% OVER PEAK

SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM PRICES AND SALES

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Year Units Apartments Condos 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Source: Polaris Pacific

Forecast

PEAK CONDOS 2,069 PEAK APARTMENTS 2,502

SAN FRANCISCO ANNUAL MULTI-FAMILY COMPLETIONS

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE 250 500 750 1,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year Total Units

Number of Units Available New Construction Resales

Source: EBRDI, Polaris Pacific

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE ACTIVE CONDOMINIUM INVENTORY

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

5 10 15 20 Year Number of Months 10 20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: EBRDI

MRI 1.3 MONTHS

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE MARKET - MONTHS OF REMAINING INVENTORY

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

Quarter 2011 Q4 2012 Q2 2012 Q4 2013 Q2 2013 Q4 2014 Q2 Rents $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 $2,200 $2,400 $2,600

Source: Real Facts

AVERAGE RENT $2,421

OAKLAND RENTS

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

20 40 60 80 100 Year Year $0k $100k $200k $300k $400k 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Resales Median Price

Source: EBRDI

PRICE PEAK $445,000 IN JULY, 2006 $417,500 IS 6.2% BELOW PEAK

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE CONDOMINIUM PRICES AND SALES

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

Year Year $0k $100k $200k $300k $400k $500k $600k $700k $800k $900k $1000k 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

San Francisco Oakland

Source: EBRDI, SFARMLS

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE CONDOMINIUM PRICES FOLLOW SAN FRANCISCO

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year Units Apartments Condos 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Source: Polaris Pacific

Forecast

PEAK APARTMENTS 774 PEAK CONDOS 1,597 ≈ 450 APARTMENTS CONVERTED TO CONDOS

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE ANNUAL MULTI-FAMILY COMPLETIONS

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

Map of the Market

Number of Units: 0 (Source: Polaris Pacifjc) 300

Oakland Emeryville

1,000

Map of the Market

Number of Units: 369 (Source: Polaris Pacifjc) 300

Oakland Emeryville 369

1,000

CONDOMINIUMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION APARTMENTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION TOTAL NUMBER: 0 TOTAL NUMBER: 369

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE UNDER CONSTRUCTION HOUSING SUPPLY

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MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

Map of the Market

Number of Units: 3,834 (Source: Polaris Pacifjc) 300

Oakland 3,745 Emeryville 89

1,000

Map of the Market

Number of Units: 4,194 (Source: Polaris Pacifjc) 300

Oakland 4,110 Emeryville 84

1,000

CONDOMINIUMS APPROVED APARTMENTS APPROVED TOTAL NUMBER: 3,834 TOTAL NUMBER: 4,194

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE APPROVED HOUSING SUPPLY

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