2007 2007 Average Price of SF New Home Average Price of SF New - - PDF document

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RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL MARKET UPDATE MARKET UPDATE

Van Rose, MIRM Van Rose, MIRM

President, Rose and President, Rose and Womble Womble New Homes New Homes March 12, 2008 March 12, 2008

15 Year Closing 15 Year Closing New Construction & Resale History New Construction & Resale History

Source:

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Resale New Construction

Hampton Roads Housing Stats Hampton Roads Housing Stats

• Average Price of SF New Home

Average Price of SF New Home $434,672 $434,672

• A Decrease of $5,344 or 1.2%

A Decrease of $5,344 or 1.2%

• Average Price of SF Existing Home

Average Price of SF Existing Home $283,406 $283,406

• An Increase of $12,895 or 4.1%

An Increase of $12,895 or 4.1%

Source:

2007 2007 SALES SALES

RESALE: 18,527 RESALE: 18,527 15.25% 15.25% NEW HOMES: 3,562 NEW HOMES: 3,562 10.23% 10.23%

Source:

Hampton Roads Residential Sales Hampton Roads Residential Sales 1999 to 2007 1999 to 2007

Source:

25% 25% 26% 26% 22% 18% 17% 18% 19% 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Resale New Construction

Market Share for Detached Sales by Price Range

Source:

658 9,560 791 2,511 436 877 506 951 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Resale Detached New Construction Detached >$500,000 $400K to $500K $300K to $400K <$300,000

69% 18% 6% 7% 21% 18% 33% 28%

2 Market Share for Attached Market Share for Attached Sales by Price Range Sales by Price Range

Source:

3061 84 1308 265 209 300 154 212 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Resale Attached New Construction Attached >$400,000 $300K to $400K $200K to $300K <$200,000

65% 28% 4% 3% 24% 35% 31% 10%

Average Market Time Average Market Time Existing Homes Existing Homes

Source:

69 77 76 80 78 72 69 61 46 36 27 28 48 66 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Days on Market

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2007 2007 CLOSINGS CLOSINGS

RESALE: 18,667 RESALE: 18,667 15.5% 15.5% NEW HOMES: 4,131 NEW HOMES: 4,131 15.3% 15.3%

Source:

2007 Southside Average Closing Prices 2007 Southside Average Closing Prices Single Family Detached Homes Single Family Detached Homes

Source:

$360,801 $522,277 $161,476 $305,322 $432,476 $127,154 $285,920 $438,994 $153,074 $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 Virginia Beach Chesapeake Suffolk

Resale NC Diff

2007 Southside Average Closing Prices 2007 Southside Average Closing Prices Single Family Detached Homes Single Family Detached Homes

Source:

$191,353 $255,588 $64,235 $235,014 $401,864 $166,850 $312,035 $462,416 $150,381 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 Portsmouth Norfolk Isle of Wight

Resale NC Diff

2007 Peninsula Average Closing Prices 2007 Peninsula Average Closing Prices Single Family Detached Homes Single Family Detached Homes

Source:

$203,717 $327,355 $123,638 $220,499 $307,087 $86,588 $364,226 $451,107 $86,881 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 Hampton Newport News York County

Resale NC Diff

3

2007 Peninsula Average Closing Prices 2007 Peninsula Average Closing Prices Single Family Detached Homes Single Family Detached Homes

Source:

$392,703 $453,475 $60,772 $441,871 $432,042

• $9,829

$263,049 $322,038 $58,989

• $50,000

$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 James City County Williamsburg Gloucester

Resale NC Diff

Average Sq Ft Average Sq Ft New Construction Single Family Detached New Construction Single Family Detached

2 0 0 3 $ 1 0 4 per sq ft 2 ,5 6 2 SF 2 0 0 4 $ 1 2 3 per sq ft 2 ,6 4 1 SF 2 0 0 5 $ 1 4 9 per sq ft 2 ,7 4 2 SF 2 0 0 6 $ 1 6 1 per sq ft 2 ,6 4 7 SF 2 0 0 7 $ 1 5 5 per sq ft 2 ,7 4 4 SF

Source:

New Construction Price Points New Construction Price Points

Source:

1% 3% 4% 2% 1% 8% 15% 29% 37% <$300,000 $300K to $400K $400K to $500K $500K to $600K $600K to $700K $700K to $800K $800K to $900K $900K to $1 million $1 million+

New Construction Product Mix New Construction Product Mix

Source:

21% 11% 8% 60%

Single Family Detached Multi-Story Condo Multi-Plex Condo Townhome/ Duplex

Single Family Building Permits January 2008 vs January 2007

U.S.

• 40%

Northeast

• 31%

31% South South

• 36%

36% Midwest Midwest

• 37%

37% West West

• 54%

54% Hampton Roads

• 19%

19%

Source: NAHB

CHALLENGES CHALLENGES FOR FOR 2008 2008

4

Resale 10,595 units 9 months supply New Homes 2,225 units 8.8 months supply

Inventory

Source:

Buyer Confidence Lack of Construction during 2nd half of 2008 Over 10,000 units of mixed use approved in Hampton Roads Credit: Perception versus Reality

PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS FOR FOR 2008 2008

5 Product shortage in the 2nd half of 2008

Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Modeling Inc., U.S. Census Bureau (Permits)-Note: 2007 permits are estimated)

1/29/2008

Hampton Roads Hampton Roads Employment to Permit Ratio Employment to Permit Ratio

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 Change in Employment Permits Issued E/P Ratio

Deals will be gone by the 2nd half of 2008 Financing Financing will be will be King King Readjusting Readjusting

• f Supply/
• f Supply/

Demand Demand Imbalance Imbalance

New, affordable product New, affordable product

• fferings will raise new home
• fferings will raise new home

sales numbers sales numbers

Starting at $169,900

6 AND THE AND THE WINNERS WINNERS ARE ARE…… …….. .. Hampton Roads

Top 5 Builders

Source:

# 5

134

# 4

158

# 3

255

# 2

295

# 1

370