Winter Outlook Consultation 07/08 Ed Blackmore Sempra Energy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Mar 24, 2024 25 likes •85 views

Winter Outlook Consultation 07/08 Ed Blackmore Sempra Energy www.sempra.com p/Therm 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 01/01/2007 15/01/2007 29/01/2007 12/02/2007 26/02/2007 SAP (red) v Daily volatility (blue) 12/03/2007 26/03/2007 UK Spot

SLIDE 1

Winter Outlook Consultation 07/08 Ed Blackmore Sempra Energy www.sempra.com

SLIDE 2

UK Spot Prices YTD Strong

SAP (red) v Daily volatility (blue)

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 01/01/2007 15/01/2007 29/01/2007 12/02/2007 26/02/2007 12/03/2007 26/03/2007 09/04/2007 23/04/2007 07/05/2007 21/05/2007 04/06/2007 18/06/2007 02/07/2007 16/07/2007 30/07/2007 13/08/2007 27/08/2007 10/09/2007 24/09/2007

p/Therm

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% 500%

% Vol

SLIDE 3

Does it matter? Does it matter?

Volatility sets the tone for the market

– reduces liquidity – increases risk premium – increases bid/offer spread

SLIDE 4

Why so volatile?

CATS problems (a worry if occurs in winter)
Japanese reactor problems - LNG
Inconsistent continental production – plenty in

April less in remainder of summer

Higher average demand in summer
Lack of gas on gas competition – marginal

Therm generally Norwegian.

SLIDE 5

Source of gas

Production by source 28th September

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Vesterled Langeled BBL Storage UK Gas Production

SLIDE 6

Tough year for traders…

Winter 07

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 02/01/07 15/01/07 26/01/07 08/02/07 21/02/07 06/03/07 19/03/07 30/03/07 16/04/07 27/04/07 11/05/07 24/05/07 07/06/07 20/06/07 03/07/07 16/07/07 27/07/07 09/08/07 22/08/07 05/09/07 18/09/07 p/Therm