2018 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN PROJECT UPDATE APRIL 10, 2018 Commission Presentation August 9, 2016
Presentation Outline 2 What is an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)? Key Takeaways from 2016 IRP Preview 2018 IRP Information 2018 IRP Considerations Summary
3 What is an IRP?
What is an IRP? 4 Washington State RCW 19.280 mandate 10 year strategy to meet energy, capacity, and renewables Evaluates generation resources, conservation and Renewable Energy Credits (REC) Provides strategies for reliable, low cost electricity at reasonable risk Creates action plan over two to four years
IRP Inputs/ Modeling 5
6 Key Takeaways from 2016 IRP
Key Takeaways From 2016 IRP 7 District long on resources with seasonal capacity deficit District relying on market Energy needs Capacity needs Renewable Energy Credits (REC) needs Regional summer capacity constraints growing post 2019 PNUCC Northwest Regional Forecast Power Council Resources Adequacy Studies BPA White Book (2015 Pacific NW Loads & Resources Study) Regional uncertainty of future legislation
8 Preview 2018 IRP Information
2018 IRP Project Charter 9
2018 Assumptions & Modeling 10 Load Growth Assumption Carbon Assumption Low Natural Gas Price Modeling Stochastic Modeling
Load/Resource Balance – DRAFT Annual – Critical Water 11 300 Renewables 275 250 Frederickson 225 Market 200 175 Slice aMW 150 125 100 75 Block 50 25 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Block Critical Slice Renewables Market Frederickson Resource Requirement* * Retail Load Forecast plus distribution & transmission losses
Load/Resource Balance – DRAFT Annual – Average Water 12 300 Average Water 275 Renewables Slice Adder Frederickson 250 225 200 175 Slice aMW 150 125 100 75 Block 50 25 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Block Critical Slice Average Slice Adder Renewables Frederickson Resource Requirement* * Retail Load Forecast plus distribution & transmission losses
2018 Monthly Forecasted Loads Block and Critical/Average Slice over time 13 Average Slice Rely on Frederickson 350 needed to serve Slice surplus & Market to meet load sold to market load 300 250 200 aMW 150 100 50 - January February March April May June July August September October November December Block Critical Slice Average Slice Renewables Frederickson 2018 Resource Requirement Block/Slice Generation observed over the last 3 years Frederickson available as energy call option through August 2022
Example of Hourly Market Purchases How hourly loads are met on a extreme hot summer day 14 Load/Resource Balance (2015 Peak Day) 450 Temperature 400 Observed 1 : 105 F 350 300 250 MWh 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Ending Block To Load Slice To Load Nine Canyon Wind - To Load White Creek - To Load Packwood - To Load Fredrickson - To Load District Market Purchases Actual Load 1 – As observed by the Hanford Meteorological Station
Capacity Deficits Without Frederickson With Frederickson 15
16 2018 IRP Considerations
2018 IRP Considerations 17 Energy & Capacity Uncertainties Resource Adequacy Studies (PNUCC, NWPCC & BPA) Market availability? Who and when will build? Frederickson CT contract retires in 2022 Legislation Uncertainty EIA requirements Carbon Policy Customer Preferences Changing? Customer Green Rate options BPA Post 2028
Summary 18 Key Draft Takeaways Regional seasonal capacity constraints growing Winter constrained Summer constraints growing District continues to be annually long on resources Critical water- short after 2022 Frederickson expires in 2022 Average water- long thru 2028 District seasonal deficits continue to be met by RMC hedging 2018 Considerations/Uncertainties Market, Legislation, Customer Preference, BPA 2028 Commission updates throughout summer Adopt 2018 IRP by August 28th
Questions 19
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