2018 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN PROJECT UPDATE APRIL 10, 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2018 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN PROJECT UPDATE APRIL 10, 2018 Commission Presentation August 9, 2016 Presentation Outline 2 What is an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)? Key Takeaways from 2016 IRP Preview 2018 IRP Information 2018
Commission Presentation August 9, 2016
What is an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)? Key Takeaways from 2016 IRP Preview 2018 IRP Information 2018 IRP Considerations Summary
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Washington State RCW 19.280 mandate 10 year strategy to meet energy, capacity, and renewables Evaluates generation resources, conservation and Renewable
Provides strategies for reliable, low cost electricity at
Creates action plan over two to four years
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District long on resources with seasonal capacity deficit District relying on market Energy needs Capacity needs Renewable Energy Credits (REC) needs Regional summer capacity constraints growing post 2019
PNUCC Northwest Regional Forecast Power Council Resources Adequacy Studies BPA White Book (2015 Pacific NW Loads & Resources Study)
Regional uncertainty of future legislation
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Carbon Assumption Load Growth Assumption Low Natural Gas Price Modeling Stochastic Modeling
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25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 aMW Block Critical Slice Renewables Market Frederickson Resource Requirement*
Renewables
Frederickson
Market
Annual – Critical Water
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* Retail Load Forecast plus distribution & transmission losses
25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 aMW Block Critical Slice Average Slice Adder Renewables Frederickson Resource Requirement*
Renewables
Average Water Slice Adder
Frederickson
Annual – Average Water
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* Retail Load Forecast plus distribution & transmission losses
100 150 200 250 300 350 January February March April May June July August September October November December aMW Block Critical Slice Average Slice Renewables Frederickson 2018 Resource Requirement
Block/Slice Generation observed over the last 3 years Frederickson available as energy call option through August 2022
Rely on Frederickson & Market to meet load Average Slice needed to serve load Slice surplus sold to market
Block and Critical/Average Slice over time
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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 MWh Hour Ending
Load/Resource Balance (2015 Peak Day)
Block To Load Slice To Load Nine Canyon Wind - To Load White Creek - To Load Packwood - To Load Fredrickson - To Load District Market Purchases Actual Load
Temperature Observed1: 105 F
1 – As observed by the Hanford Meteorological Station
How hourly loads are met on a extreme hot summer day
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Energy & Capacity Uncertainties Resource Adequacy Studies (PNUCC, NWPCC & BPA) Market availability? Who and when will build? Frederickson CT contract retires in 2022 Legislation Uncertainty
EIA requirements Carbon Policy
Customer Preferences Changing?
Customer Green Rate options
BPA Post 2028
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Key Draft Takeaways
Regional seasonal capacity constraints growing Winter constrained Summer constraints growing District continues to be annually long on resources Critical water- short after 2022 Frederickson expires in 2022 Average water- long thru 2028 District seasonal deficits continue to be met by RMC hedging
2018 Considerations/Uncertainties
Market, Legislation, Customer Preference, BPA 2028
Commission updates throughout summer
Adopt 2018 IRP by August 28th
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