DRAFT 2010 Integrated Resource Plan Seattle City Light Review - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
DRAFT 2010 Integrated Resource Plan Seattle City Light Review Panel June 30, 2010 Power Supply & Environmental Affairs Integrated Resource Planning: Objectives and Key Questions Objectives: Sufficient Power Supply for
Power Supply & Environmental Affairs
Power Supply & Environmental Affairs
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– Sufficient Power Supply for Reliability & Low Costs – Meeting I-937 and Other Regulatory Requirements – Appropriate Mix of Cost and Risk
– How Much Conservation and Resources? – When? – What Kind?
Power Supply & Environmental Affairs
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Enhance Power Quality Stabilize Rates Create Green Jobs More Wind Power Create Business Opportunities Political & Policy Impacts Ensure High Power Reliability Sustainability National Environmental Leadership Conservation First Preserve Low Cost Power Limit Carbon Tax Exposure Distributed Generation Incentives Fight Climate Change More Solar Power More Public Oversight Reduce Utility Debt Demand- Response Programs Enhance Power Quality Stabilize Rates Create Green Jobs More Wind Power Create Business Opportunities Political & Policy Impacts Ensure High Power Reliability Sustainability National Environmental Leadership Conservation First Preserve Low Cost Power Limit Carbon Tax Exposure Distributed Generation Incentives Fight Climate Change More Solar Power More Public Oversight Reduce Utility Debt Demand- Response Programs Enhance Power Quality Stabilize Rates Create Green Jobs More Wind Power Create Business Opportunities Political & Policy Impacts Ensure High Power Reliability Sustainability National Environmental Leadership Conservation First Preserve Low Cost Power Limit Carbon Tax Exposure Distributed Generation Incentives Fight Climate Change More Solar Power More Public Oversight Reduce Utility Debt Demand- Response Programs
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Load Troughs Often Lag Recession End Points
900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 Dec-80 Dec-81 Dec-82 Dec-83 Dec-84 Dec-85 Dec-86 Dec-87 Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Average M egaw atts National Recession Puget Sound Recession/Stagnation 12-Month Rolling Average Load
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1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 1,350 1,400 2 9 2 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 5 2 1 7 2 1 9 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 5 2 2 7 Average Megawatts March 2009 Forecast Revision April 2010 Forecast
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200 400 600 800 1,000 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 A v e r a g e M e g a w a tts
Generation 1991 - 2008
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Accounts for Load Growth, Weather Impacts, Hydro Volatility, Forced Outages, Operating Reserves, Power Contract Terms and Expirations
Notes: Both 2008 and 2010 assume 100 aMW from wholesale spot market. Winter reliability-based resource needs are independent of I-937 requirements.
100 200 300 400 500 600 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 4 2 1 6 2 1 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 6 2 2 8 Average Megawatts 2008 IRP 95% Res. Adeq. 2010 IRP 95% Res. Adeq.
*December and January
Winter Resource Adequacy
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600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 4 2 1 6 2 1 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 6 2 2 8
Average Annual Energy (aMW)
Total Resources Load - After Cons. Load - Before Cons.
No need for firm “annual” resources for 10 years*
*Does not include “winter-only” needs
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Hydropower is not a qualifying resource for I-937 50 100 150 200 250 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 4 2 1 6 2 1 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 6 2 2 8 aMW Post-Cons. I-937 Requirement Forecast RECs
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Map by SCL IRP & Forecasting
– Wind (blue)
Oregon, Washington – Geothermal (purple)
Oregon, Idaho – Biomass (green)
California, Idaho – Landfill Gas (orange)
Portland, San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles- San Diego, Denver
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0.265 0.285 0.305 0.325 0.345 0.365 0.385 $2,500 $2,600 $2,700 $2,800 $2,900 $3,000 $3,100 20-yr. Cost (NPV in Millions) Risk Measure
SCL: RECs Only
Max-Exch
Lo-RECs Hi-RECs Higher Cons.
*RECs = Renewable Energy Credits, representing environmental attributes of renewable energy under Initiative 937, can substitute for renewable energy in the law
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95% Risk
3rd
rd
2nd
nd
1st
st
Scenario Avg. Ranking
Low REC Price
$20
$536
Lo-RECs
Base Case
High REC Price $86 $21 Low Gas Price
High Gas Price
Low CO2 Price
High CO2 Price
Low Demand $701 $535 High Demand
Hi-RECs Hi-Cons. Top 3 Portfolios:
95% Risk
3rd
rd
2nd
nd
1st
st
Scenario Avg. Ranking
Low REC Price
$20
$536
Lo-RECs
Base Case
High REC Price $86 $21 Low Gas Price
High Gas Price
Low CO2 Price
High CO2 Price
Low Demand $701 $535 High Demand
Hi-RECs Hi-Cons. Top 3 Portfolios:
First Rankings: Second Third
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