2015 1Q Results Presentation Athens, 28 May 2015
CONTENTS • Executive Summary • Industry Environment • Group Results Overview • Business Units Performance • Financial Results • Q&A 1
1Q15 KEY HIGHLIGHTS • Strong 1Q15 with Adj. EBITDA at € 205m ( € 51m LY), and Adj. Net Income at € 55m (- € 19m LY); 3 rd consecutive quarter of improved performance • Positive IFRS Net Income, despite inventory loss from crude oil price drop in January and USD liabilities valuation losses • Refineries utilisation sustained at high levels q-o-q, taking full advantage of favourable refining economics; production at 3.5mT with exports at 53% of total refining sales • Aspropyrgos refinery major T/A in process, with oil-in expected in June; Elefsina utilisation and 2Q yield to be affected by FXK maintenance • Contago trades and inventory planning, ahead of Aspropyrgos shut-down, affected working capital and Net Debt • Positive effect on interest costs from improved financing terms; however, macro impact still significant • Exploration program has started in the West Patraikos JV, with geological studies in process 2
1Q15 GROUP KEY FINANCIALS Adj. EBITDA ( € m) € million, IFRS 1Q FY Δ% 2014 2014 2015 Income Statement +302% 205 Sales Volume (MT'000) - Refining 2,790 3,616 13,538 30% 1,004 4,131 Sales Volume (MT'000) - Marketing 807 24% 9,478 Net Sales 2,077 1,879 -9% 51 Segmental EBITDA 173 253 - Refining, Supply & Trading 24 - 1Q14 1Q15 Refining sales volume (m MT) 19 81 - Petrochemicals 17 12% - Marketing 11 14 90 30% +30% 3.6 - Other -1 -1 -7 3% 2.8 417 Adjusted EBITDA * 51 205 - 28 Share of operating profit of associates ** 15 8 -44% 240 Adjusted EBIT * (including Associates) 17 166 - -215 Finance costs - net -53 -50 6% 1Q14 1Q15 5 Adjusted Net Income * -19 55 - -84 IFRS Reported EBITDA 25 155 - Net Debt ( € bn) -38 18 -365 IFRS Reported Net Income - -11% 2.3 Balance Sheet / Cash Flow 2.1 2,870 Capital Employed 4,505 3,836 -15% 1,140 Net Debt 2,333 2,085 -11% Capital Expenditure 25 17 136 -31% (*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items 1Q14 1Q15 (**) Includes 35% share of operating profit of DEPA Group 3
CONTENTS • Executive Summary • Industry Environment • Group Results Overview • Business Units Performance • Financial Results • Q&A 4
INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT Significant drop of crude oil price in January mostly reversed by end of 1Q15; stronger USD positive for European refiners; improved crude availability in the region led to wider sour spreads € ICE Brent ($/bbl) and EURUSD 130 1.60 • 112 110 Crude oil price at $45-60/bbl, the lowest 110 109 108 103 102 110 1.50 since 2Q09 1.37 1.37 1.36 90 1.40 76 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.31 1.25 70 1.30 54 • 50 1.13 1.20 QE implementation in Europe led to 2014 2015 31-Mar 106 54 30 1.10 stronger USD 1Q 108 54 10 1.00 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 • Brent EURUSD Sour grades discounts wider on Crude differentials ($/bbl) increased supply, despite higher refinery 18.2 runs 11.8 9.4 9.1 6.7 6.6 6.2 • Brent – WTI spread wider on inventory 4.0 3.8 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.3 builds and Brent based contago trading -0.3 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Brent-WTI Brent - Urals 5
INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT Weak crude oil prices and wider spreads supported refining benchmarks; strong gasoline cracks led to highest FCC margins since 2Q07 Med benchmark margins** ($/bbl) Product Cracks* ($/bbl) FCC $/bbl +4.6 20 6.8 Diesel 15 4.3 4.2 MOGAS 10 3.3 2.6 2.6 2.2 5 0 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014 1Q15 -5 Naptha Hydrocracking -10 +3.8 -15 7.2 HSFO -20 4.7 4.5 3.9 -25 3.4 3.1 3.1 -30 -35 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014 1Q15 (*) Brent based. (**) Revised benchmark margins set post-upgrades and secondary feedstock pricing adjustment 6
DOMESTIC MARKET ENVIRONMENT Weather conditions and lower international prices led to increased heating gasoil consumption while transport fuels remained flat; change in IMO regulation on marine fuel sulphur content accounts for switch between bunkering FO and GO Domestic Market demand* Aviation and Bunkering ( MT ‘000) ( MT ‘000) 1,922 22% +4% 175 1,581 168 LPG & Others 690 +92% HGO 360 621 621 ADO 491 510 -8% +4% 427 Bunkers FO 463 MOGAS 562 546 -3% 107 +23% Bunkers Gasoil 87 88 Aviation +24% 71 1Q14 1Q15 1Q14 1Q15 (*) Does not include PPC and armed forces Source: Ministry of Production Restructuring, Environment and Energy 7
CONTENTS • Executive Summary • Industry Environment • Group Results Overview • Business Units Performance • Financial Results • Q&A 8
CAUSAL TRACK & SEGMENTAL RESULTS OVERVIEW 1Q 2015 Operational performance and Elefsina delivery capitalise on positive refining economics leading to improved clean EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA causal track 1Q15 vs 1Q14 ( € m) Performance 205 51 6 20 14 MK Environment 19 Chems 20 30 55 Refining, 173 S&T 35 11 MK 17 Chems 24 Refining, S&T Other -1 -1 Other (incl. E&P) (incl. E&P) 1Q14 Benchmark Elefsina Supply & Sales Volume Others 1Q15 Refining Margins Operations & FX 9
OPERATIONS, PROFITABILITY & RETURNS Favorable refining environment and Group transformation of asset base and competitiveness reflected in steady results improvement (quarterly and 12M trailing) Adj. EBITDA ( € m) ROACE (%) 571 7% L12M 5% 417 291 219 205 191 171 2% 146 1% 51 49 0% 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Quarterly L12M Production and margins Adj. EPS ( € /share) $/bbl 0.26 14 5,000 0.18 0.17 12 4,500 0.08 10 0.02 3,625 4,000 3,486 8 3,269 3,500 6 3,012 -0.06 3,000 4 2,548 -0.17 2 2,500 -0.27 -0.35 0 2,000 -0.38 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Net Production ('000 MT) Realised Margin ($/bbl) 10
CASH FLOW PROFILE Strong results benefit operating cashflow to be used for deleverage; working capital increase affected by T/A inventory built-up and contago trades Free Cashflow from Operations (Adj. EBITDA less capex- € m) 188 121 120 55 28 27 12 -6 -11 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Working Capital main drivers ( € m) 900 300 200 150 250 T/A Supply chain Contago Trades Price Impact Other management 11
CREDIT FACILITIES LIQUIDITY Credit capacity and quality enhanced following new € 200m 3-year committed facility; improved maturity profile Credit Lines % of Gross Debt 1Q15 Credit Lines Maturity Profile 2015-16: c. € 490m Total: 700 € 3.2bn EIB 600 Banks (committed) 10% 500 25% 400 300 37% Debt Capital Markets 200 28% 100 Banks (uncommitted) 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020+ EIB Banks Debt Capital Markets • • Capacity utilisation maintained at high levels Smoother maturity profile following with a corresponding high cash balance successful 2013-2014 refinancing process • Liability Management under consideration, subject to macro and market conditions 12
CONTENTS • Executive Summary • Industry Environment • Group Results Overview • Business Units Performance − Refining & Petchems − Fuels Marketing − Power & Gas • Financial Results • Q&A 13
DOMESTIC REFINING, SUPPLY & TRADING – OVERVIEW Positive refining environment, sustained operational performance and high sales volume led 1Q15 Adj. EBITDA at € 172m and L12M at € 401m FY IFRS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 1Q € MILLION Δ % 2014 2014 2015 KEY FINANCIALS - GREECE 13,531 Sales Volume (MT '000) 2,795 3,616 29% Net Production (MT '000) 2,709 12,456 3,486 29% 8,464 Net Sales 1,858 1,675 -10% 249 Adjusted EBITDA * 25 172 - 110 Capex 24 15 -38% KPIs 99 Average Brent Price ($/bbl) 108 54 -50% Average € /$ Rate ( € 1 =) 1.37 1.33 1.13 -18% HP system benchmark margin $/bbl (**) 2.4 2.8 6.8 - 9.1 Realised margin $/bbl (***) 8.0 12.3 54% (*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items (**) System benchmark weighted on feed (***) Includes PP contribution which is reported under Petchems 14
DOMESTIC REFINING, SUPPLY & TRADING – OPERATIONS Improved crude availability and pricing reflected in diversification of feedstock and higher runs Feedstock (MT’000 ) Gross Production by refinery (MT’000 ) 3,962 +46% +36% 3,819 724 TR 2,707 2,815 +76% 1,357 ER 770 90% 78% 1,937 1,881 AR -3% 4% 8% 2% 18% 1Q14 1Q15 1Q14 1Q15 Crude sourcing (%) 1Q15 Refineries yield LPG Other FO Egypt 8% Libya 5% 11% 11% 11% 10% 8% MOGAS 4% 4% 11% 0% 10% 23% 10% 0% CPC 20% 29% 19% 56% 20% 29% Urals 19% 56% 8% 7% 54% Naphtha/Other 7% 26% 26% Middle Distillates Iraq 1Q14 1Q14 1Q15 Urals Iraq CPC Libya Egypt Other 15
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