1 Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Terasen Gas (Vancouver Island) 2010-2011 Revenue Requirements and Rate Design Application
July 13, 2009
B-2 TGVI 2010 ‐ 2011 REVENUE REQUIREMENTS
EXHIBIT
2010-2011 Revenue Requirements Terasen Gas (Vancouver Island) and - - PDF document
TGVI 2010 2011 R EVENUE R EQUIREMENTS E XHIBIT B-2 1 Terasen Gas. A Fortis company. 2010-2011 Revenue Requirements Terasen Gas (Vancouver Island) and Rate Design Application July 13, 2009 Workshop Agenda Introduction Tom Loski
1 Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
B-2 TGVI 2010 ‐ 2011 REVENUE REQUIREMENTS
EXHIBIT
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Tom Loski
Tom Loski
Lee Robson
O&M and Capital James Wong Cost of Gas Mike Hopkins
Michelle Carman
Tom Loski
Tom Loski
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Reference- Section A, pages 30 & 31
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Reference- Section A, pages 30-55
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Reference- Section B, Tab 3
Management Excellence Customer Service Operational Performance Employees Financial Results
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
75.3 61.0 48.7 41.8 27.9 7.1 0.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
RDDA Closing Balance ($millions)
Reference- Appendix F-5
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Reference- Section C, Schedules 2 - 4
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
2009 2010 2011 Royalty Credit (28.1) $ (35.8) $ (40.1) $ GCVA Amortization 4.2 (4.0) GCVA Additions 5.8 Cost of Gas Sold 99.3 98.6 107.3 RACOG Including GCVA Impacts 81.2 $ 58.7 $ 67.2 $
Reference- Section C, Schedules 2 - 4
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
50 100 150 200 250 300 2009 2010 2011 2012
Delivery Margin Cost of Gas RDDA 2009 Surplus Deferral
14.6% 29.3%
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
$28.1 $35.8 $40.1
50 100 150 200 250 300 2009 2010 2011 2012
Delivery Margin Cost of Gas RDDA 2009 Surplus Deferral Royalty Revenue
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
50 100 150 200 250 2009 2010 2011
Delivery Margin Cost of Gas RDDA 2009 Surplus Deferral RSDA
Relative Rate Stability Achieved
$38.8 million RSDA balance- Jan 1
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
2009 Approved
Methodology is consistent with that used in prior years The best available information has been incorporated at the time of the forecast Methodology has been reviewed and accepted both internally and by the BCUC Total Normalized Energy Demand Relatively Stable
10 15 20 25 30 35 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P 2010F 2011F Energy (PJ)
Residential Commercial Transportation
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Customer Additions to decline through 2010: Reflects economic downturn, consistent with CMHC forecast Projecting: 2,500 net customer additions for 2009, 2,320 in 2010, and 2,430 in 2011 TGVI Net Customer Additions well below recent levels
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P 2010F 2011F
Customer Additions
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Housing Starts
Net Customer Additions Housing Starts
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Leads to relative stable average use per customer Change since 2004 is 2.9%, or 0.7% annually Although recent trend downwards, potential for increases
RGS - Use Per Customer
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P 2010F 2011F
GJ/yr
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 0 to 5 16 to 20 31 to 35 46 to 50 61 to 65 76 to 80 91 to 95 106 to 110 121 to 125 136 to 140 151 to 155 166 to 170 181 to 185 196 to 200 211 to 215 226 to 230 241 to 245 256 to 260 271 to 275 286 to 290 301 to 305 316 to 320 331 to 335 346 to 350 361 to 365 376 to 380 391 to 395
Annual Consumption Range (GJ) Number of Customers 2006 2008
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Victoria Home Constructed 1990-2005 New High Efficient Home in Victoria
Space Heating Energy = 55.4 GJ/yr Space Heating Energy = 45.6 GJ/yr
Source:Modelled through Natural Resources Canada's HOT 2000 software
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 0 to 50 251 to 300 501 to 550 751 to 800 1001 to 1050 1251 to 1300 1501 to 1550 1751 to 1800 2001 to 2050 2251 to 2300 2501 to 2550 2751 to 2800 3001 to 3050 3251 to 3300 3501 to 3550 3751 to 3800 4001 to 4050 4251 to 4300 4501 to 4550 4751 to 4800 5001 to 5500 7501 to 8000 10001 to 10500 12501 to 13000 greater than 15000
Annual Consumption Range (GJ) Number of Customers
2006 2008
Normal 2006 Normal 2007 Normal 2008 AGS 1,387.0 1,367.0 1,297.0 SCS1 75 91 103 SCS2 314 310 313 LCS1 903 943 952 LCS2 2,295 2,406 2,359 LCS3 17,379 17,694 16,521 Normal 2006 Normal 2007 Normal 2008 Total Energy 7,341 7,491 7,345
Some variability in individual customer classes Overall volumes have been relatively stable
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Impacts use per customer for SCS1, SCS2, LCS1, LCS2, and LCS2 Analysis of volumes identifies adjustment to be made
Tariff Customers SCS1 86 SCS2 612 LCS1 422 LCS2 144 LCS3 47 Reclassified Out Tariff Customers SCS1 546 SCS2 279 LCS1 322 LCS2 142 LCS3 22 Reclassified In Tariff Customers SCS1 460 SCS2
LCS1
LCS2
LCS3
Net Change
Tariff Adjustment (GJ) SCS1
SCS2 9 LCS1 45 LCS2 202 LCS3 3,041 Change In Average Use
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P 2010 2011 RGS 58.7 60.2 57.0 56.1 56.1 55.0 55.0 SCS1 75 75 91 103 94 74 74 SCS2 314 314 310 313 327 322 322 LCS1 943 903 943 952 968 997 997 LCS2 2,384 2,295 2,406 2,359 2,530 2,561 2,561 AGS 1,339 1,387 1,367 1,297 1,290 1,262 1,262 LCS3 16,521 17,379 17,694 16,521 18,471 19,562 19,562
Notes
customer projections for 2009. Reclassification is to be completed August 1, 2009.
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
BCH ICP – Contract demand 50 TJ/day (effective November 1, 2009 – October 31, 2011) VIGJV forecast at existing contract demand of 8.0 TJ/day
5 10 15 20 25 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P 2010F 2011F
Energy (PJ)
5 10 15 20 25 30
Revenue ($M) Energy Revenues
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
2009 Approved
Methodology is consistent with that used in prior years The best available information has been incorporated at the time of the forecast Methodology has been reviewed and accepted both internally and by the BCUC
Note: First two months of 2009P are actual results (non-weather normalized)
Total Normalized Energy Demand Relatively Stable
10 15 20 25 30 35 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P 2010F 2011F Energy (PJ)
Residential Commercial Transportation
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Assumptions (1) Comparators (2) Highlights (3)
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
2010 Additive to 2009 Projection 2011 Additive to 2010 Forecast
Labour inflation and benefits Code and regulations Accounting changes Mt Hayes LNG Service enhancements
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
$200 $220 $240 $260 $280 $300 $320 $340 $360 $380 $400 2006 2007 2008 2009 Gross O&M per Customer 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% Customer Satisfaction % Gross O&M per customer ($ 2009) Customer Satisfaction (%)
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
(4) (2)
4 6 8 10
Labour Inflation and Benefits Code and Regulations Accounting Changes Mt Hayes LNG Service Enhancements
$ millions 2010 2011
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2010 2011 2012 $000s Non-Labour Labour
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Total TGI O&M cost pool Exclude costs not shared Apply applicable cost driver Allocate costs to TGVI
Management estimate FTE count Customer count
$0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 $ millions 2010 2011 TGVI Shared Services
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
* Restated number excludes incremental funding due to codes and regulations, accounting changes, Mt Hayes LNG
2006 2009 2010 2011
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Assumptions (1) Comparators (2) Highlights (3)
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 2006 2007 2008 2009 Capital Expenditure per Customer 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% Customer Satisfaction Total Capital Expenditure per Customer ($ 2009) Customer Satisfaction (%)
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
5 10 15 20 25 Category A Category B Category C $ millions 2010 2011
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Systems Integrity and Reliability
$- $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Capital Expenditures ($millions) Distribution Transmission
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
$- $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 $12.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Capital Expenditures ($millions) IT Non IT under $5 million Non IT over $5 million
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
* Restated number excludes $5 m in 2010 and $3 m in 2011 for replacement of the Victoria Regional Office that otherwise would have been CPCN
2006 2009 2010 2011
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
2009/10 TGVI Normal & Design Day Loads vs Supply Portfolio
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
1-Nov-09 16-Nov-09 1-Dec-09 16-Dec-09 31-Dec-09 15-Jan-10 30-Jan-10 14-Feb-10 1-Mar-10 16-Mar-10 31-Mar-10 15-Apr-10 30-Apr-10 15-May-10 30-May-10 14-Jun-10 29-Jun-10 14-Jul-10 29-Jul-10 13-Aug-10 28-Aug-10 12-Sep-10 27-Sep-10 12-Oct-10 27-Oct-10
GJ/d
Seasonal purchases Winter seasonal storage (Aitken Creek) MIST storage Peaking supply Spot purchases
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Base Case Cost of Gas - 2009-2011 Forecast Gas Costs ($ 000s) 2009 2010 2011
Projected Forecast Forecast
Commodity Supply 70,010 $ 78,596 $ 91,264 $ Company Use & UAF - Commodity Cost 2,791 3,489 4,051 Commodity 72,801 $ 82,084 $ 95,314 $ Transportation Demand Charges 7,025 6,732 6,534 Storage Demand Charges 3,463 3,408 3,109 Carbon Tax on Company Use Gas 277 355 466 Hedging Cost / (Gain) 15,283 5,445 1,268 Gas Supply Management Costs 465 605 620 Total Cost of Gas 99,314 $ 98,629 $ 107,311 $ Royalty Revenues (28,095) $ (35,832) $ (40,091) $ Royalty Adjusted Cost of Gas (RACOG) 71,219 $ 62,796 $ 67,220 $ Sales Volumes (TJ) 12,264 12,241 12,433 RACOG Unit Cost ($/GJ) 5.81 $ 5.13 $ 5.41 $ Approved 2009 RACOG Unit Cost ($/GJ) 6.40 $
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
TGVI Forecast Royalty Adjusted Cost of Gas (RACOG)
$50 $70 $90 $110 $130 $150 2010 2011 2012 RACOG ($million) # 1 - Base Case Cost of Gas # 2 - Cost of Gas w ith Volatility Factor # 3 - High Case Cost of Gas # 4 - Q2 Update Cost of Gas
Loss of Royalty Credit in 2012 increases cost of gas significantly Market volatility significantly impacts cost of gas
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Reflect Accounting Changes Add Value to Stakeholders through Deferrals Maintain System Reliability & Integrity Implement Energy Policy Initiatives Support Customer Growth Rate Base Increases
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Part III, Section C, Tab 8, Page 310
2009P 2010F 2011F Net Plant in Service 527.6 $ 545.0 $ 550.0 $ Mount Hayes LNG Addition
Deferred Charges 6.2 0.5 4.9 Cash Working Capital (2.1) 0.3 0.5 Gas-in-Storage 11.9 9.8 12.5 Other (3.4) (0.3) (0.3) Utility Rate Base 540.2 $ 555.4 $ 729.6 $ Rate Base Increase 15.2 $ 174.2 $
(amounts in $ millions)
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
$7 $162 $29 $30 $(23) $(27) $5 $2
2010 2011 $ Millions Average CPCN Additions Average Regular Additions Average Depreciation Average Repayment of Government Loans & Other
$17 million $167 million
Part III, Section C, Tab 13, Schedules 9 and 10
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
$0.2 $0.3 $2.8 $6.6 $(2.0) $0.2 $0.1 $(2.1) $(0.7)
2010 2011 Non-Controllable Items Energy Policy GCVA Cost of Current Applications Other Residual Part III, Section C, Tab 8, Page 315
Mid year balance $0.5 million Mid year balance $4.9 million
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Competitiveness:
Continue with rates established under the soft-cap mechanism to effectively achieve rate stability with respect to cost of gas and alternative fuels
Stability:
Need for stable predictable rates to ensure company’s ability to attract and retain customers
Customer Impact:
Ensure that rate design does not unduly impact customers’ bills
Fairness:
Rate structures reflect cost of service and value for service
Ease of Understandability, Administration and Rate Continuity:
Ensure consistency and continuity to minimize customer confusion; promote fairness and equity
Recovering the Revenue Requirements:
Progress towards goal of financial sustainability
Maintain the safety and reliability of the utility system:
Ensure that the system is properly maintained and is operated in a safe reliable manner
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TGVI
Gas Supply Portfolio 0.5 BCF
TGVI LNG Storage Facility
1.5 BCF
TGI
Storage and Delivery Agreement 1.0 BCF
TGVI
Net LNG Storage Facility Costs
TGI Valuation Method: Revenue from Storage and Delivery Agreement based on market value TGVI Valuation Method: Debit to Cost of Gas based on market value Residual TGVI System Costs: Allocated on Average System Capacity
2011 - $19.4M 2012 - $24.1M 2011 - $9.0M 2012 - $12.0M 2011 - $4.5M 2012 - $6.0M 2011 - $5.9M 2012 - $6.1M
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
System Capacity TJ/Day Equivalent TJ Capacity LNG Storage Facility 51 TJ/d x 10 days 510 TJ Pipeline Capacity 151.5 TJ/d x 365 days 55,298 TJ Total TJ capacity 55,808 TJ Average System Capacity 152.9 TJ/d
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.
Proposed Rates Mitigate Volatility
70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Difference from Year 2009
RGS - Rates Set Equal to Cost of Service RGS - Proposed Rates 2010/2011, Estimate 2012
Note: Rates shown in graph above for 2012 is just an estimate
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Action Date (2009) File Application Monday, June 29, 2009 Procedural Order (up to Procedural Conference) Thursday, July 2, 2009 Intervenor Registration Friday, July 10, 2009 Workshop Monday, July 13, 2009 Procedural Conference Wednesday, July 15, 2009 Procedural Order (Timetable and Process) Friday, July 24, 2009 BCUC Information Request No. 1 Thursday, July 30, 2009 Intervenor Information Request No. 1 Thursday, August 6, 2009 TGVI Response to Information Requests No. 1 Friday, August 28, 2009 BCUC Information Request No. 2 Thursday, September 10, 2009 Intervenor Information Request No. 2 Thursday, September 10, 2009 TGVI Response to Information Requests No. 2 Friday, September 25, 2009 TGVI Final Argument Submissions Friday, October 9, 2009 Intervenor Final Argument Submissions Friday, November 20, 2009 TGVI Reply Argument Submissions Friday, November 27, 2009 Anticipated BCUC Decision Friday, January 15, 2010
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Terasen Gas. A Fortis company.