Telecom m unication Sector in Transition: Case of South Eastern - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Helping the world communicate Telecom m unication Sector in Transition: Case of South Eastern Europe 5th Conference on Applied Infrastructure Research 5th Conference on Applied Infrastructure Research Sustainable I nfrastructure Financing in

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International Telecommunication Union

Helping the world communicate

Telecom m unication Sector in Transition: Case of South Eastern Europe

5th Conference on Applied Infrastructure Research 5th Conference on Applied Infrastructure Research

Sustainable I nfrastructure Financing in Europe under the Conditions of Com petition, Regulation, Environm ental Concern, and I nstitutional Change 6 6-

  • 7 October 2006, Berlin

7 October 2006, Berlin Anna Riedel Jaroslaw K. Ponder Policy Analyst ITU Strategy and Policy Unit

The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.

University of Bochum

Presentation prepared within the framework of research project on Future of Voice

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2 international telecommunication union

Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

About I TU

International organization where

governments and private sector coordinate global telecom networks and services

Founded in 1865, it is oldest specialized

agency of the UN system

190 Member States, 780 Sector

Members & Sector Associates

Headquarters Geneva, 11 regional

  • ffices, 760 staff / 80 nationalities
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3 international telecommunication union

Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

I TU Mission

Maintain and extend international

cooperation in telecommunications

To harmonize actions of Member

States and promote cooperation between Member States and Sector Members

Technical and policy assistance to

developing countries

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4 international telecommunication union

Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

I TU New I nitiatives Program m e

Focus

ICT innovations New market developments Emerging regulatory challenges

Three main outcomes :

Research programmes International expert workshops Publications

  • w w w .itu.int/ ni

w w w .itu.int/ ni

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5 international telecommunication union

Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

W hat rules for I P-enabled NGNs?

Research Programme Background Resources Three Background Papers

New Markets (Prof. Wey) Interconnection (Mr. Marcus) Universal Service (Dr. Xavier)

Chairman Report Workshop: March 2006

w w w .itu.int/ ngn w w w .itu.int/ ngn

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6 international telecommunication union

Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

The Future of Voice

Research Programme Background Materials Page Three Background Papers Four Regional Studies

Asia South Eastern Europe Africa Latin America

Workshop: January 2007

w w w .itu.int/ spu/ voice w w w .itu.int/ spu/ voice

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International Telecommunication Union

Helping the world communicate

Telecom m unication Sector in Transition: Case of South Eastern Europe

5th Conference on Applied Infrastructure Research 5th Conference on Applied Infrastructure Research

Sustainable I nfrastructure Financing in Europe under the Conditions of Com petition, Regulation, Environm ental Concern, and I nstitutional Change 6 6-

  • 7 October 2006, Berlin

7 October 2006, Berlin Anna Riedel Jaroslaw K. Ponder Policy Analyst ITU Strategy and Policy Unit

The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.

University of Bochum

Presentation prepared within the framework of research project on Future of Voice

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8 international telecommunication union

Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

Agenda

Sector in technologic revolution Regulatory evolution All-IP environment requirements Case of South Eastern Europe Conclusions

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9 international telecommunication union

Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

Technologic Revolution

Fixed Infrastructure

Gradual migration to the IP environment Access and Core Networks: Romania, Slovak Republic New IP based services, e.g. IPTV, VoD

Wireless Infrastructure

Mobile: 2G, 2.5G, 2.75G, in some c. 3G Mobile-Fixed infrastructure: CDMAx1 s. 450 Wireless: WiFi, WiMax (efficient spectrum management) New services: Mobile-TV (DVB)

Cable TV

Digitalization and provision of broadband delivery of other services than TV and Radio

Broadcasting

Digitalization

Noticeable substitution effects basic com m unication

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Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

Sector in Transition

Revolution at the core, edge and access

Overall digitalization and migration to the IP

Fixed / Wireless / Cable TV / Broadcasting Multi-facility competition / Service b. comp / Infrastructure less pr.

Broadband requirements driven via new services and applications Strengthened process of convergence

Technology / Market / Services / Institutional Fixed-Mobile Convergence Convergence and interactivity are a key to success

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11 international telecommunication union

Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

Telecom Sector in Transition

Meaning and character of communications

Voice, Video, Data, SoD

New sell and price strategies coming from

IP-enabled flexibility on operational level

NGS: N-play services, e.g. IPTV Falling prices of communication services and access Traditional services lose economic but not strategic meaning Personalization and customization

Regulation

Less regulation / blurred boundaries Migration from vertical to horizontal approach Technological neutrality becomes meaningful

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12 international telecommunication union

Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

Telecom Sector in Transition

PSTN Mobile 2G VoIP

QoS USO

  • Reg. Int.

NGN

Simulation Emulation Multimedia Generalized mobility Convergence Integrity Multi-layer orientation Open character

IP-environment Broadband/ Mobility

Next Generation Services QoS, Mobility, Interactivity, Personalization, N-play Now

Service A Service B Service C

  • Net. A
  • Net. B
  • Net. C

Future

Services A, B, C IP Platform (QoS) Access Networks

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Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

Convergence process

Broadca sting/ Satelite Fixed Telec. Cable- TV Mobile Telec. Wire less Infr. less

  • s. prov.

Voice Internet Television/ Radio Services on Demand (VoD… )

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Helping the world communicate

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Digital Opportunity I ndex

w w w .itu.int/ doi

Opportunity I nfrastructure Utilization

w w w .itu.int/ doi

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Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

w w w .itu.int/ doi

Opportunity I nfrastructure Utilization

w w w .itu.int/ doi

DOI DOI

DOI DOI

percentage of population covered by m obile cellular telephony internet users per 1 0 0 inhabitants proportion of households w ith fixed line telephone m obile cellular tariffs as a percentage of per capita incom e internet access tariffs as a percentage of per capita incom e ratio of broadband internet subscribers to internet subscribers ratio of broadband m obile subscribers to m obile internet subscribers m obile cellular subscribers per 1 0 0 inhabitants proportion of households w ith I nternet access at hom e m obile internet subscribers per 1 0 0 inhabitants proportion of households w ith a com puter

Opportunity Utilization Infrastructure

Digital Opportunity I ndex

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w w w .itu.int/ doi

Opportunity I nfrastructure Utilization

w w w .itu.int/ doi

DOI DOI

Digital Opportunity I ndex

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17 international telecommunication union

Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

I nternet use and Prices in SEE

55.4 51.9 49.9 46.3 44.6 35.7 34.8 31.9 29.7 26.0 21.9 20.6 20.6 20.2 15.2 14.4 9.8 9.5 7.9 2.3 20.1 14.8 21.2 9.7 2.9 31.5 20.5 9.0 20.9 3.1 4.5 8.4 5.7 0.6 0.0 1.5 0.5 1.3 0.1 0.4 10 20 30 40 50 60

Slovenia Estonia Czech Republic Slovak Republic Latvia Lithuania Belarus Croatia Hungary Poland Turkey Bosnia Bulgaria Romania Russia S&M Ukraine Moldova TFYR Macedonia Albania Users per 100 inhab. Subscribers per 100 inhab.

37.29 111.92 136.79 168.00 26.32 83.62 28.11 22.10 40.31 51.99 27.98 16.55 12.70 36.97 37.34 27.40 22.13 21.00 28.16 9.36

256 256 512 256 512 512 1'024 256 256 1'024 2'048 512 256 1'024 1'024 512 1'024 256 512 256

485.77 408.76 309.35 288.00 247.97 215.45 176.89 94.40 82.11 74.97 69.27 65.01 62.89 61.10 56.01 39.31 37.95 32.94 30.72 28.44

1'024 1'024 2'048 1'024 1'536 2'048 2'560 2'048 768 6'144 3'072 2'048 2'048 2'048 4'096 1'000 4'096 1'536 2'048 4'096

Albania Moldova Latvia Russia

TFYR Macedonia

Turkey

Slovak Republic

Belarus

Serbia and Montenegro

Poland

Czech Republic

Croatia Bulgaria Hungary Slovenia Estonia Bosnia Romania Ukraine Lithuania

High Speed (1'024 - 6'144) Lower Speed (256 - 1'024)

Broadband Prices in CESE Users and Subscribers per 1 0 0 inhabitants in CESE

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Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

Fixed Telecom ., Europe

28,2 38 35 30 20.31 13,1 21,2 26.28 49,9 54,84 10 20 30 40 50 60 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Turkey EU15

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Mobile Subscribers, Europe

76.4 110 90 2,58 61,7 104,9 7,46 20 40 60 80 100 120 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Poland Czech Republic Hungary Romania Bulgaria Turkey Croatia EU15

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Mobile and fixed penetration

EU 25 mobile

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% AL BA BG HR RO Mon Ser Kos MK TR

Mobile (1.11.2005) Fixed (1.11.2005)

EU 25 fixed

Source: Cullen International 2006

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Market value breakdow n Market value breakdow n

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% AL BA BG HR RO Mon Ser Kos MK TR

Fixed telephony Mobile services Fixed data Cable TV Other services

Source: Cullen International 2006

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Helping the world communicate

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I CT Expenditures, Europe

Per capita telecommunications expenditure in Euro

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 225 131 258 315 332 448 205 261 94 151 737 810 2002 2003 2004 2005 Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania EU 15

Telecommunications expenditure as % of GDP

6.34 8.07 3.59 3.69 4.79 5.72 3.95 5.03 6.29 3.34 3.34 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2002 2003 2004 2005 Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania EU 15 ICT Expenditures as % of GDP

Per capita ICT expenditure in Euro

2002 2003 2004 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005 Czech Republic 437 481 533 563 Czech Republic 6.07 6.50 6.47 6.59 Hungary 469 543 593 639 Hungary 6.76 7.47 7.89 8.17 Poland 277 300 337 374 Poland 5.33 6.34 6.78 7.22 EU 15 1,446 1,461 1,508 1,555 EU 15 6.56 6.43 6.40 6.40 Bulgaria 159 181 234 275 Bulgaria 7.66 7.81 8.92 9.87 Romania 116 132 170 196 Romania 5.65 6.12 7.48 8.16

Telco: carrier services, end-user communications equipment, PBX (Private Branch eXchange) and key systems, circuit switching equipment, cellular mobile radio infrastructure, transmission and other network equipment Data Source: EITO

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Helping the world communicate

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South Eastern European Countries

Low and stagnating penetration in fixed

telecommunication

Situation may change shortly because of BB

Growing importance of mobile

telecommunications

Strategies encouraging fixed-mobile substitution effects Aggressive pricing strategies Extensive product differentiation Wireless internet access

Ongoing regulatory reform

ONP / NRF 2002 / NRF 2006

Low willingness to pay Lack of financial resources

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Helping the world communicate

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W hy invest in non-EU countries?

Source: PwC survey and LE calculations, Study for the European Commission - July 2006

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Helping the world communicate

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Building Enabling Environm ent

Economic and Social Policy ICT Sector Regulation Information Society Policies Com petitiveness C

  • m

p e t i t i v e n e s s C

  • m

p e t i t i v e n e s s Role of the I CT Role of the I CT R

  • l

e

  • f

t h e R

  • l

e

  • f

t h e I C T s I C T s

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Helping the world communicate

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Political options / New Balance

NG I nfrastructure NG I nfrastructure NG Users NG Users NG Services NG Services

I CT Sector as I ndustry I CT as Social and Econom ic Enabler

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Helping the world communicate

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South Eastern Europe Cases

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Helping the world communicate

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Conclusions

Regulatory harmonization

harmonization and pro- active participation in the debate on regulatory framework is crucial

It diminishes investment risk

investment risk that is very high in the ICT sector anyway

The national particularities

national particularities have to be taken into account and reflected in the framework

Innovation dynamics together with

strong market mechanisms set new new regulatory and policy requirements regulatory and policy requirements

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Helping the world communicate

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Conclusions

  • Competition

Competition is key to the All-IP environment; on the other hand All- IP fosters competition

Regulatory policy should take into

account the dynamic efficiencies dynamic efficiencies to be achieved in the ICT sector

  • Facility

Facility based competition and service service based competition has to be created

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Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

International Telecommunication Union

Thank you

Anna Riedel Jaroslaw K. Ponder Policy Analyst ITU Strategy and Policy Unit University of Bochum

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Helping the world communicate

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NGN and the I TU

ITU ITU-

  • T SG 13: Rec. Y.2001

T SG 13: Rec. Y.2001

A NGN is a packet packet -

  • based netw ork

based netw ork able to provide telecommunication services and able to make use of m ultiple m ultiple broadband broadband, QoS QoS-

  • enabled

enabled transport technologies and in which service service-

  • related

related functions functions are independent independent from underlying transport transport -

  • related

related technologies

  • technologies. It enables unfettered

unfettered access access for users to networks and to competing service providers and/ or services of their choice. It supports generalized m obility generalized m obility which will allow consistent and ubiquitous provision of services to users.

Challenges Challenges

Multimedia Generalized mobility Convergence Integrity Multi-layer orientation Open character

FG NGN SG: 11, 13, 19, 2, 12, 16, 17 Asia America Europe

ITU NGN

Africa

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Helping the world communicate

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NGN and the I TU: I PTV

IPTV Focus Group

Created in 2006 to deal with the standardization issues related to IPTV and link between IPTV and NGN Meetings and first outcomes

July 2006, Geneva, Switzerland October 2006, Seoul, Korea

ITU Global IPTV Technical Workshop

Regulation / Market / Technologies October 2006, Seoul, Korea

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Helping the world communicate

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NGN and the I TU

Regulatory considerations

New Initiatives Programme

What rules for IP-enabled NGNs? The Regulatory Environment for Future Mobile Multimedia Services The Future of Voice

ITU Study Groups

Question 6-2/ 1: Regulatory impact of NGNs on interconnection Question 12-2/ 1: Tariff policies, tariff models and methods of determining the costs of services on national telecommunication networks including NGNs Question 19-1/ 2: Strategy for migration from existing networks to NGNs for developing countries

WTDC 2007 in Doha Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2007 Global Symposium for Regulators 2007

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Helping the world communicate

6 July 2006

NGN and the I TU

Regulatory considerations

What rules for IP-enabled NGNs?

Chairman Report Three background papers

Rulling new and emerging marekts Interconnection in an IP-enabled NGN Environment Universal Service in an IP-enabled NGN Environment

Survey on regulatory proceedings

National, Regional, International level

www.itu.int/ spu/ ngn