WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM 50 YEARS OF OVERESTIMATING FUTURE LOAD - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM 50 YEARS OF OVERESTIMATING FUTURE LOAD - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 06, 2023 119 likes •256 views

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM 50 YEARS OF OVERESTIMATING FUTURE LOAD GROWTH? NWPPA Power Supply Conference August 2, 2016 Presented by: Anne Falcon, Senior Associate EES Consulting, Inc A registered professional engineering and management consulting

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WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM 50 YEARS OF OVERESTIMATING FUTURE LOAD GROWTH?

NWPPA Power Supply Conference August 2, 2016

Presented by: Anne Falcon, Senior Associate EES Consulting, Inc

A registered professional engineering and management consulting firm with offices in Kirkland, WA and Portland, OR Telephone (425) 889‐2700 Facsimile (425) 889‐2725 falcon@eesconsulting.com www.eesconsulting.com

Consulting, Inc. EES

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ALL FORECASTS ARE WRONG

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WHY DO WE CARE?

  • Load Forecasting is the Foundation for Utility Planning
  • Load Forecasting is Not a Static Process
  • Deployment of Smart Grid Technologies has Made High Granular Data

Available for Load Forecasting

  • Many Factors Influence the Load Forecasting Accuracy
  • The Recent Recession has Brought a Change in How Customers Use

Electricity and How Much They Use

  • Money Makes the World Go Around

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NW HISTORIC LOAD FORECASTS – ENERGY

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NW HISTORIC LOAD FORECASTS – WINTER PEAK

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NW HISTORIC LOAD FORECASTS – SUMMER PEAK

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IT’S NOT JUST US

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FORECAST BIAS

  • Forecasts Generally have Positive

Bias

  • Forecasts are More Biased During

Economic Booms

  • Forecast Bias Increases Over Time as

Forecasts Lose Accuracy Over Longer Time Periods

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FORECASTING IN POST‐2008 RECESSION ERA

  • Historic Relationships May No Longer Hold, or Correlations May be Weaker
  • Example: Natural gas heat in residential homes
  • Higher Summer Peaks
  • AC loads, global warming
  • Peak Demand Forecasting Influenced More by Appliance Usage Patterns

Rather Than Appliance Characteristics

  • Urban vs. rural
  • Customer age/employment status/lifestyle
  • Smart technologies and storage
  • Distributed Generation
  • Slow or Flat Growth

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FORECASTING IN POST‐2008 RECESSION ERA (CONT’D)

  • New Loads Difficult to Predict
  • Bitcoin
  • Data centers
  • Cannabis growers
  • Others
  • How Long Do They Last?

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I DON’T HAVE THE ANSWERS!

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ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

  • WECC 2013 Forecast
  • Scenario 1 – Focus on Economic Recovery – All About Growth
  • 2013 – 2018 – The Dark Before the Dawn
  • 2019 – 2022 – A New Day Dawning
  • 2023 – 2033 – A Bright New Day
  • Scenario 2 – Focus on Clean Energy – Keep It Clean
  • 2019 – 2022 – Tension through Inflection
  • 2023 – 2033 – Lumpy Implementation
  • Scenario 3 – Focus on Short‐Term Customer Costs – Slow Growth and

Tough Choices

  • 2013 – 2018 – The Doldrums Don’t End
  • 2019 – 2022 – Struggling to Get On Track
  • 2023 – 2033 – Same As It Ever Was

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SLIDE 13

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