WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM 50 YEARS OF OVERESTIMATING FUTURE LOAD - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM 50 YEARS OF OVERESTIMATING FUTURE LOAD - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM 50 YEARS OF OVERESTIMATING FUTURE LOAD GROWTH? NWPPA Power Supply Conference August 2, 2016 Presented by: Anne Falcon, Senior Associate EES Consulting, Inc A registered professional engineering and management consulting


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WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM 50 YEARS OF OVERESTIMATING FUTURE LOAD GROWTH?

NWPPA Power Supply Conference August 2, 2016

Presented by: Anne Falcon, Senior Associate EES Consulting, Inc

A registered professional engineering and management consulting firm with offices in Kirkland, WA and Portland, OR Telephone (425) 889‐2700 Facsimile (425) 889‐2725 falcon@eesconsulting.com www.eesconsulting.com

Consulting, Inc. EES

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ALL FORECASTS ARE WRONG

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WHY DO WE CARE?

  • Load Forecasting is the Foundation for Utility Planning
  • Load Forecasting is Not a Static Process
  • Deployment of Smart Grid Technologies has Made High Granular Data

Available for Load Forecasting

  • Many Factors Influence the Load Forecasting Accuracy
  • The Recent Recession has Brought a Change in How Customers Use

Electricity and How Much They Use

  • Money Makes the World Go Around

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NW HISTORIC LOAD FORECASTS – ENERGY

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NW HISTORIC LOAD FORECASTS – WINTER PEAK

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NW HISTORIC LOAD FORECASTS – SUMMER PEAK

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IT’S NOT JUST US

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FORECAST BIAS

  • Forecasts Generally have Positive

Bias

  • Forecasts are More Biased During

Economic Booms

  • Forecast Bias Increases Over Time as

Forecasts Lose Accuracy Over Longer Time Periods

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FORECASTING IN POST‐2008 RECESSION ERA

  • Historic Relationships May No Longer Hold, or Correlations May be Weaker
  • Example: Natural gas heat in residential homes
  • Higher Summer Peaks
  • AC loads, global warming
  • Peak Demand Forecasting Influenced More by Appliance Usage Patterns

Rather Than Appliance Characteristics

  • Urban vs. rural
  • Customer age/employment status/lifestyle
  • Smart technologies and storage
  • Distributed Generation
  • Slow or Flat Growth

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FORECASTING IN POST‐2008 RECESSION ERA (CONT’D)

  • New Loads Difficult to Predict
  • Bitcoin
  • Data centers
  • Cannabis growers
  • Others
  • How Long Do They Last?

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I DON’T HAVE THE ANSWERS!

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ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

  • WECC 2013 Forecast
  • Scenario 1 – Focus on Economic Recovery – All About Growth
  • 2013 – 2018 – The Dark Before the Dawn
  • 2019 – 2022 – A New Day Dawning
  • 2023 – 2033 – A Bright New Day
  • Scenario 2 – Focus on Clean Energy – Keep It Clean
  • 2019 – 2022 – Tension through Inflection
  • 2023 – 2033 – Lumpy Implementation
  • Scenario 3 – Focus on Short‐Term Customer Costs – Slow Growth and

Tough Choices

  • 2013 – 2018 – The Doldrums Don’t End
  • 2019 – 2022 – Struggling to Get On Track
  • 2023 – 2033 – Same As It Ever Was

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SLIDE 13

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