WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM 50 YEARS OF OVERESTIMATING FUTURE LOAD - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM 50 YEARS OF OVERESTIMATING FUTURE LOAD GROWTH? NWPPA Power Supply Conference August 2, 2016 Presented by: Anne Falcon, Senior Associate EES Consulting, Inc A registered professional engineering and management consulting firm with offices in Kirkland, WA and Portland, OR Telephone (425) 889 ‐ 2700 Facsimile (425) 889 ‐ 2725 EES Consulting, Inc. falcon@eesconsulting.com www.eesconsulting.com

ALL FORECASTS ARE WRONG 1

WHY DO WE CARE?  Load Forecasting is the Foundation for Utility Planning  Load Forecasting is Not a Static Process  Deployment of Smart Grid Technologies has Made High Granular Data Available for Load Forecasting  Many Factors Influence the Load Forecasting Accuracy  The Recent Recession has Brought a Change in How Customers Use Electricity and How Much They Use  Money Makes the World Go Around 2

NW HISTORIC LOAD FORECASTS – ENERGY 3

NW HISTORIC LOAD FORECASTS – WINTER PEAK 4

NW HISTORIC LOAD FORECASTS – SUMMER PEAK 5

IT’S NOT JUST US 6

FORECAST BIAS  Forecasts Generally have Positive Bias  Forecasts are More Biased During Economic Booms  Forecast Bias Increases Over Time as Forecasts Lose Accuracy Over Longer Time Periods 7

FORECASTING IN POST ‐ 2008 RECESSION ERA  Historic Relationships May No Longer Hold, or Correlations May be Weaker • Example: Natural gas heat in residential homes  Higher Summer Peaks • AC loads, global warming  Peak Demand Forecasting Influenced More by Appliance Usage Patterns Rather Than Appliance Characteristics • Urban vs. rural • Customer age/employment status/lifestyle • Smart technologies and storage  Distributed Generation  Slow or Flat Growth 8

FORECASTING IN POST ‐ 2008 RECESSION ERA (CONT’D)  New Loads Difficult to Predict • Bitcoin • Data centers • Cannabis growers • Others  How Long Do They Last? 9

I DON’T HAVE THE ANSWERS! 10

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES  WECC 2013 Forecast • Scenario 1 – Focus on Economic Recovery – All About Growth  2013 – 2018 – The Dark Before the Dawn  2019 – 2022 – A New Day Dawning  2023 – 2033 – A Bright New Day  Scenario 2 – Focus on Clean Energy – Keep It Clean • 2019 – 2022 – Tension through Inflection • 2023 – 2033 – Lumpy Implementation  Scenario 3 – Focus on Short ‐ Term Customer Costs – Slow Growth and Tough Choices • 2013 – 2018 – The Doldrums Don’t End • 2019 – 2022 – Struggling to Get On Track • 2023 – 2033 – Same As It Ever Was 11

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