D r o u g h 33.6 -45.5 33.6 -45.5 11 years 5.4 years 11 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

D r o u g h –33.6 -45.5 –33.6 -45.5 11 years 5.4 years 11 years 5.4 years years t years Figure 2. Precipitation anomalies during 11 years of the dust bowl (1930-1940)

Station Set-up Montana Mesonet January 2018 4

36 ranchers Clyde Park and Two Dot § Early Warning Drought tools Helpful………………… 81.6% § Predicting range growth early in season……………. 82.9% § Knowing soil moisture and soil temperature ……..... 88.6% § Having soil moisture trend data to share …………... 100%

Sometimes things aren’t quite as benign as they seem?

FISHTAIL Wet Date 0 100 20 95 40 Percentage Soil Moisture 90 60 Sensor Reading (Centibars) 80 85 100 80 120 140 75 160 70 180 200 65 Dry WET Rain Needed Danger Zone Not Used 6 Inch 12 Inch January 2018 7 18 Inch 6 in. Soil Temp

Montana Mesonet https://climate.umt.edu/mesonet/default.php

Represented at governors drought

Several more Ag Applications ……. § Water balance in Crop rotations § Forest Wqater Balance § Fire § Stream flow § Water Resources § Many other uses § Orchards § Pest control GDD

Sometimes things have a simple explanation

Stillwater Rancher Quote “L “Lee W ee When you f en you fir irst ca came t me to me a o me around ound 2 2001 abo about start arting this pro roject on my lan and I thought you were crazier than Hell……… ……… No Now I unders rstan and How val aluabl able this inf informa ormation ion ca can n be. e.”

climate.umt.edu New York Times – September 3 rd , 2016 Montana.mesonet@umontana.edu Lee Schmelzer lees@montana.edu kevin.hyde@umontana.edu 406-322-8035 state.climatologist@umontana.edu January 2018 13

Weeds annual grasses Weather .. water balance.. drought management. Crop rotation Higher value crops. Cattle.genomics and commercial industry Use of technology and research •By producers- often difficult to get producers to use some of the technology we have--- forage testing •By the general public – silver bulltett syndrome •Odd man out theis year grasshoppers •“It’s not the lack of tools that impedes genetic progress in beef cattle, it’s the lack of adoption of tools that impedes genetic progress,” says Matt Spangler, Extension beef genetics specialist at the University of Nebraska. Consider the fact that expected progeny differences (EPDs) first became available to beef producers about four decades ago. At this year’s Beef Improvement Federation Research Symposium and Convention, Spangler shared survey data indicating approximately 30% of commercial cow-calf producers utilize EPDs as a primary tool for selecting bulls.

Wha’s Next Weather and data availability? § Interactive weather platform for all the data to be available § https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi- bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=MT&rawsflag=3 § https://zentracloud.com/#/dashboard_detail

Leave you with a few more things § Need your help to make sure the tools developed are useful.

Next steps on soil moisture

How do we get to it? Step 1 Measure the soil properties controlling PAW Soil Samples Completed August 2019

Integrated into maps like these Oklahoma http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/categ ory/soil_moisture

Decision Support Tools How to best deliver data? Current Conditions and What products and tools? Forecast Select Mesonet Station Status Station From this to this? Current web interface Compare Local to NWS 3-day Soil Trends Evaporative Demand Streamflow Conditions MT Drought Index Compare Stations View Montana Trends Interpret Soil Data MSU Extension Services Climate.umt.edu à Montana Mesonet à Stations January 2018 23

How M How Much F h For orage ge Will I Ha Will I Have T This Y his Year? 90 90% by y Jul uly y 1 st st Ap April ril + May May + June Pr Precipitation Cr Crop Y Year P Precipitation (S (Sept – June June) 24

Possible Yield with % of Normal normal Rain for Centibars of moisture Total PAW rainfall water year Linger 41 37 51 200 67 45 59 200 2.7 36.978 78.1% Van 91 169 200 200 102 170 200 200 0 22.398 Swz 198 24 18 200 1.8 32.118 65.8% 200 36 41 200 Church 1 27.798 Fishtail 9 17 14 3.85 43.188 87.4%

Already Shaping Discussions!!!! Represented at governors drought

Montana Mesonet Resilience – Adaptation – Prediction Montana State University College of Agriculture Agricultural Research Centers January 2018 27

Important Websites § Montana Mesonet http://climate.umt.edu/mesonet/ § UMRB Drought Indicators Dashboard http://shiny.cfc.umt.edu:3838/drought_indicators/flex/ § Oklahoma / http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/category/soil_moi sture

10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 0.000 5.000 4/1/2018 0:00 4/2/2018 22:00 4/4/2018 20:00 4/6/2018 18:00 4/8/2018 16:00 4/10/2018 14:00 Port 1 ATMOS 41 All-in-one Weather Station mm Precipitation Port 3 GS3 Moisture/Temp/EC % Water Content Port 2 GS3 Moisture/Temp/EC % Water Content 4/12/2018 12:00 4/14/2018 10:00 4/16/2018 8:00 4/18/2018 6:00 4/20/2018 4:00 4/22/2018 2:00 4/24/2018 0:00 4/25/2018 22:00 Chart Title 4/27/2018 20:00 4/29/2018 18:00 5/1/2018 16:00 5/3/2018 14:00 5/5/2018 12:00 5/7/2018 10:00 5/9/2018 8:00 5/11/2018 6:00 5/13/2018 4:00 5/15/2018 2:00 5/17/2018 0:00 5/18/2018 22:00 5/20/2018 20:00 5/22/2018 18:00 5/24/2018 16:00 5/26/2018 14:00 5/28/2018 12:00 5/30/2018 10:00 End of May 0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 0.000 5.000 4/1/2019 0:00 4/2/2019 14:00 4/4/2019 4:00 4/5/2019 18:00 4/7/2019 8:00 4/8/2019 22:00 4/10/2019 12:00 4/12/2019 2:00 4/13/2019 16:00 Port 3 GS3 Moisture/Temp/EC % Water Content Port 2 GS3 Moisture/Temp/EC % Water Content Port 1 ATMOS 41 All-in-one Weather Station mm Precipitation 4/15/2019 6:00 4/16/2019 20:00 4/18/2019 10:00 4/20/2019 0:00 4/21/2019 14:00 4/23/2019 4:00 4/24/2019 18:00 4/26/2019 8:00 Chart Title 4/27/2019 22:00 4/29/2019 12:00 5/1/2019 2:00 5/2/2019 16:00 5/4/2019 6:00 5/5/2019 20:00 5/7/2019 10:00 5/9/2019 0:00 5/10/2019 14:00 5/12/2019 4:00 5/13/2019 18:00 5/15/2019 8:00 5/16/2019 22:00 5/18/2019 12:00 5/20/2019 2:00 5/21/2019 16:00 5/23/2019 6:00 5/24/2019 20:00 5/26/2019 10:00 5/28/2019 0:00 5/29/2019 14:00 5/31/2019 4:00 0.450 0.400 0.350 0.300 0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.000

How is the data already being used to help? Letter in 2005 Represented at NAP grass loss CRP release in alfalfa regional governors determination 2000’s release drought easier because of data Insurance and disaster professional letters How has the data been used already? January 2018 30

This weeks discussion Represented at governors drought

Soil moisture monitoring networks § Automated monitoring networks first emerged in late 1990’s Oklahoma Mesonet • NRCS SCAN • MCSCN Montana • Station locations (>700) for some of the in situ soil moisture monitoring networks currently operational in the US. (Mike § Today there is a large and Cosh) growing system of networks around the world § Problem #1: In situ soil moisture measurements have not been used in any operational drought monitoring system until the Soil moisture stations currently contained in the ISMN. Green last few years dots show the stations that are still measuring soil moisture, red dots the stations that were imported from the Global Soil Moisture Data Bank. (Wouter Dorigo)

Decision Support Tools How to best deliver data? Current Conditions and What products and tools? Forecast Select Mesonet Station Status Station From this to this? Current web interface Compare Local to NWS 3-day Soil Trends Evaporative Demand Streamflow Conditions MT Drought Index Compare Stations View Montana Trends Interpret Soil Data MSU Extension Services Climate.umt.edu à Montana Mesonet à Stations January 2018 33

Drought § Cumulative Rainfall data alone is a poor predictor of drought impacts. § Because: costly short term soil moisture deficits can occur in years of average or above average rainfall (Flash Drought)

Other Tools Graphic by: MSU Extension Water Quality

Growing with Partnerships Building and Sustaining a Shared Resource • Bureau of Land Management • Private Ranches • MSU Ag Extension Service • Rangeland Monitoring Working Group • MT Dept Natural Resources & • Trout Unlimited Conservation • Confederated Salish Kootenai • The Blackfoot Challenge • Montana Stockgrowers • The Nature Conservancy • National Weather Service • MT Conservation Districts • Crow Agency • National Weather Service • NOAA • Watershed coordination groups • National Forest Service • Governor's Drought Committee • Natural Resources Conservation Service • Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology • MSU Ag Research Centers • Bird Conservancy of the Rockies • Drought Early Warning System • National Mesonet System January 2018 36