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Web Meets World Tim O’Reilly
O’Reilly Media, Inc.
www.oreilly.com
Web 2.0 Expo Berlin
October 21, 2008
Something here about end of Web 2.0
- web2.Over
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Web Meets World Tim OReilly OReilly Media, Inc. www.oreilly.com - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Web Meets World Tim OReilly OReilly Media, Inc. www.oreilly.com - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Web Meets World Tim OReilly OReilly Media, Inc. www.oreilly.com Web 2.0 Expo Berlin October 21, 2008 Something here about end of Web 2.0 web2.Over 2 Deep trends behind Web 2.0 The internet as platform Harnessing
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Deep trends behind Web 2.0
- The internet as platform
- Harnessing collective intelligence
- Data as the “Intel Inside”
- Software above the level of a single device
- Software as a service
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Deep trends behind Web 2.0
- The internet as platform
- Harnessing collective intelligence
- Data as the “Intel Inside”
- Software above the level of a single device
- Software as a service
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These are not short-term trends!
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Deep trends behind Web 2.0
- The internet as platform
- Harnessing collective intelligence
- Data as the “Intel Inside”
- Software above the level of a single device
- Software as a service
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These are not short-term trends! Do you think we’re done yet?
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Winners and Losers
- Winners
– Cloud computing – SAAS applications like Google Apps – Open Source software – Companies delivering valuable services to business or consumers – Breakthroughs in collective intelligence – Entrepreneurs who believe so much in what they are doing that they stick to it
- Losers
– Me-too startups fueled by easy money – Venture capitalists who invested in them 4
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- Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/
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Not an investment bubble - a reality bubble!
- Financial crises
- Worst income inequality since the Gilded Age
- Oil price shock
- Global warming
- Decline in science literacy & education
- Water scarcity
- Exotic diseases
- Aging populations and soaring health costs
- Decline in US and European economic
competitiveness and innovation
- Dysfunctional political system
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- Photo by corsiworld: http://flickr.com/photos/ 88506093@N00/2680675316
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It’s tough to predict the future
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Forecasts by Major Oilfield Equipment Group
Active Rigs (Yearly Averages)
Scenarios for Oil Drilling: 1980–90
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Forecasts by Major Oilfield Equipment Group
Active Rigs (Yearly Averages)
Actual
Scenarios for Oil Drilling: 1980–90
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Scenario Planning
15 Singularity Global Economic & Environmental Collapse Politics As Usual Visionary leadership
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Robust Strategies
16 Singularity Global Economic & Environmental Collapse Politics As Usual Visionary leadership
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Robust Strategy #1
Work on stuff that matters!
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To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices
February 2008 41 Kevin Surace
No Climate Change Yes Climate Change We Act We Do NOT Act
- Invest Money
- Invent new technology
- Reduce reliance on oil
- Invest Money
- Save 1B Lives
- Invent new technology
- Reduce reliance on oil
- Life goes on
- Billions die
- Large wars
- Horrible famine and drought
- End of world as we know it
- Total economic collapse
Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI
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To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices
February 2008 41 Kevin Surace
No Climate Change Yes Climate Change We Act We Do NOT Act
- Invest Money
- Invent new technology
- Reduce reliance on oil
- Invest Money
- Save 1B Lives
- Invent new technology
- Reduce reliance on oil
- Life goes on
- Billions die
- Large wars
- Horrible famine and drought
- End of world as we know it
- Total economic collapse
Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI
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Pascal’s Wager
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How can I make any difference?
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"A victory small enough to be
- rganized is too small to be
decisive."
- -Eliot Janeway,
Struggle for Survival
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Tracking Illegal Deforestation in Brazil with Google Earth
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Source: New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/world/americas/19brazil.html
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Great challenge = Great opportunity
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The Berlin Airlift
- 2.3 Million tons from
277,569 total flights
- One flight landing every 2
1/2 minutes, 24 hours a day, for 15 months
- At peak, one landing per
minute
- Planes unloaded by local
residents - volunteers -10 tons in 10 minutes!
- Development of modern
methods of air traffic control
- Companies such as Boeing,
Lockheed
- Ultimately, the basis for air
freight companies like FedEx
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Compliments on extremadura etc
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Create more value than you capture
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Robust Strategy #2
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“Visionary companies ... are not afraid to make bold commitments to ‘Big Hairy Audacious Goals’”
- -Jim Collins and Jerry Porras, Built to Last
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IBM’s original forecast for the PC
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IBM’s original forecast for the PC
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“A PC on every desk and in every home”
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“The PC is just a toy.”
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In 1998, search had largely been written
- ff as a business opportunity...
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“Organize all the world’s information”
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Do you think we’re done yet?
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