Water Heaters Ecodesign and Energy Label Preparatory Review Study - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Preparatory Review Study Task 2 (DRAFT) Market Analysis

DRAFT INTERIM REPORT

Review study Commission Regulation (EU) No. 814/2013 [Ecodesign] and Commission Delegated Regulation No. (EU) No. 812/2013 (Energy Label) Prepared by

VHK in collaboration with BRG Building Solutions, London (UK)

The information and views set out in this study are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Commission

Water Heaters

Ecodesign and Energy Label

Content

• 1. Intro
• 2. Generic economic data (Eurostat)
• 3. Market & stock data (BRG)
• 4. Prices & rates
• 5. Market actors & costs
• 6. Evaluation and outlook

Intro: study goals

• Update (MEErP) in  see chapters hereafter & methodology slide
• Review (Art. 7 of regulations)

ED appropriate – for GHG refrigerants, CO, HC, PM? – for energy efficiency, NOx, sound power? – setting requirements for biofuel (gas/oil)? – In view of PEF and 3rd party certification? EL assessment – shift in market share – if package label appropriate

• Evaluate (REFIT). Did the regulations work as they were supposed to and

was there no significant negative impact?

8 0 2 7 1 8 8 7 1 8 3 0 8 7 1 8 7 2 9 5 0 9 6 5 9 8 7 9 4 1 8 9 4 9 2 5 9 4 5 1 7 0 4 1 7 4 8 1 8 0 2 1 4 1 5 1 1 5 5 1 2 5 3 7 4 8 6 9 8 7 0 6 6 7 4 9 7 0 9 2 6 8 7 8 1 7 9 1 7 0 1 6 7 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 8 5 2 4 5 2 3 9 2 3 4 4 2 1 3 9 5 4 0 6 4 0 8 943 1913 1329 1294 1255 657 275 217 192 224 106 24 132 3 8 2 7 4 7 1 4 4 3 3 7 3 9 2 3 3 6 6 8 3 1 9 3 2 3 2 8 2 2 2 9 2 2 3 7 2 3 4 4 2 4 4 8 2 3 7 9 2 4 6 9 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6

EU2 8 Electric I nstantaneous W H Production 2 0 0 4 / 2 0 1 6

(in´ 000 units); source: Eurostat

Portugal I taly Hungary Greece Bulgaria

• ther EU

Poland United Kingdom Germ any

EIWH production EU 2016: 2.47 m units @ €400 m (in

manufacturer selling prices msp) . Average msp= €162/unit

2004: 3.8m @ €530m *

*=nominal 0.42 bn eur, inflation corrected to 2016

ESWH production EU 2016: Eurostat data mixed with ‘electric kettles’, so no meaningful production data

8 1 7 8 6 4 3 3 8 4 6 1 6 7 2 9 3 6 2 5 9 7 2 7 7 5 2 6 8 8 1 8 6 9 2 7 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 8 7 0 5 4 6 8 1 0 2 8 1 7 0 9 2 2 4 0 1 6 9 6 1 9 6 9 1 4 2 0 1 3 7 3 1 5 4 9 1 4 9 8 1 4 4 7 1 7 2 3 1 4 9 3 1 3 4 7 2 6 9 4 2 0 6 6 2 5 8 2 2 4 2 1 2 0 9 7 1 8 9 6 1 3 1 6 1 3 1 6 1 3 1 6 1 3 1 6 1 3 1 6 1 3 1 6 1 3 1 6 242 456 380 380 329 365 406 688 592 618 725 758 1044 2 1 9 3 8 3 4 6 7 4 4 2 4 2 8 3 2 7 2 9 8 3 5 4 3 9 8 4 1 8 5 4 5 8 1 3 8 9 2 871 565 1071 1190 1111 788 743 1564 855 577 376 643 562 656 581 521 471 531 441 462 569 524 546 478 453 533 7 5 7 1 7 7 1 8 1 1 8 0 8 1 3 9 0 6 1 0 5 7 9 9 0 4 2 8 4 4 2 9 6 1 1 6 8 3 4 8 4 3 0 8 7 7 5 1 0 8 3 5 1 1 6 8 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6

EU2 8 Electric Storage W H Production 2 0 0 4 / 2 0 1 6

(in´ 000 units); source: Eurostat

Sweden Spain Slovenia Slovakia Rom ania Portugal Malta Luxemburg Lituania Latvia I reland Hungary Greece Finland Estonia Denmark Czech Republic Cyprus Croatia Netherlands United Kingdom AT/ BE/ CZ/ DK/ SV Bulgaria Poland Germ any France I taly

9 6 9 1 0 4 3 1 4 6 2 1 5 3 0 2 0 6 0 2 0 4 4 2 1 0 0 2 2 1 1 1 6 6 6 1 3 7 0 1 1 5 0 9 5 0 8 3 2 1112 1124 1031 1204 898 697 753 716 708 645 694 728 728 804 940 838 753 778 645 658 579 574 530 376 290 265 6 3 1 5 4 0 4 5 8 4 0 3 5 6 8 4 9 5 4 3 9 3 8 2 3 0 7 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 6 2 5 1 123 132 149 182 258 269 265 279 258 241 210 184 219 1 0 2 1 0 7 8 1 1 0 6 1 5 4 1 5 4 2 5 7 2 7 2 2 0 7 2 0 3 2 0 8 2 0 2 2 1 2 1 8 3 2 2 0 2 7 0 3 2 4 2 8 0 4 2 5 4 1 9 3 5 0 2 3 6 2 1 8 2 0 4 1 6 9 2 9 1 2 6 4 3 2 0 1 3 8 1 0 0 1 4 8 1 2 9 1 5 9 1 5 6 1 4 5 2 6 6 1 9 2 1 1 9 1 1 9 1 1 6 1 4 3 1 5 8 188 95 97 150 230 304 268 233 115

34

4 4 7 9 4 7 9 8 5 0 6 9 5 2 2 8 6 1 0 0 5 4 2 6 5 4 0 0 5 4 4 9 4 7 3 3 4 1 1 4 3 6 7 5 3 6 0 4 3 4 8 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6

EU2 8 Non-Electric W H Production 2 0 0 4 / 2 0 1 6

(in´ 000 units); source: Eurostat

United Kingdom Sweden Slovenia Slovakia Romania Netherlands Malta Luxemburg Lituania Latvia I reland Hungary Finland Estonia Czech Republic Cyprus Croatia Bulgaria Belgium Denm ark I taly Austria Greece Poland France Spain Portugal Germ any _

Non electric WH production EU 2016: 3.48 m units @ €1.12bn (in manufacturer selling prices msp) . Average msp= €333/unit

2004: 4.5 m @ €1.5bn *

*=nominal 1.3bn eur, inflation corrected to 2016

EU Trade (Eurostat, reliability low)

from/ to in m Euro 2004 2016 2004 2016 China 93 377 18 16 Turkey 17 33 12 11 Switzerland 14 28 37 75 USA 14 26 46 64 Norway 7 12 3 8 Japan 1 8 2 3 Russia 5 59 51 Other 314 498 205 271 EU28_EXTRA 460 990 381 499 EXPORT I MPORT

EU Residential Primary Water Heater Park 2014

(total 245 m dwellings)

District H 24.4 Collective H 21.0 COMBI 64.6 CYLgas 20.2 CYLoil 11.9 CYLbio 1.8 CYLsolid 3.1 CYLelec 3.5 CYLsol 5.1 EIWH 8.3 ESWH 57.1 GIWH 17.2 GSWH 3.6 SOL 2.2 HPWH 0.6

Dedicated WH in scope 89 m dwellings

Hot water tank in scope

41 m dwellings

in scope of Boiler Reg.: Combi 64.6 m dwellings Solo (+ tank) 41 m dw. Collective boilers 21 m dwellings

• ca. 21m dwellings

collective tanks in scope (ca. 4-5 m tanks)

+53 million Secondary Water Heaters

EU Non-Residential Water Heater Park 2014

(total ca. 70 m hot water tapping points)

Source: BRG 2004

• 2 000

4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Water Heater Sales 2004-2016 in 000 units

(source BRG 2017)

Heat Pump Water Heater Solar Thermosyphon Tanks SHW Cylinders Integrated Monovalent SHW Cylinders Separate Monovalent Buffer Storage Tanks Combi Boilers Bi-/Multivalent Cylinders Bain Marie Cylinders Gas Storage Non Condensing Gas Storage Condensing Gas Instantaneous Electric Storage Electric Showers Electric Instantaneous

18.5 m 15.6 m 11.1 m 9.4 m

9.5 m dedicated WHs 2 m hot water tanks

136 94 397 1216 129 3904 397 6 113 12 1150 5752 1298 1036

Sums do not fully add up because of non-SHW buffer tank (not in scope)

EU sales 2016, products in scope 2.4 m 2 m 4.6 m 3.9 m

combi

958 276 142 121 54

• 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

W ater heater sales trend 2 0 0 4 -2 0 1 6 ( 2 0 0 4 = 1 0 0 % )

HPHW 958 BUFFER 276 BI-/ MULTI CYL 142 SOL 121 EIWH (inst) 100 CYL INTEGR 96 ESWH 93 COMBI 90 EIWH (shower) 85 CYL SEP 75 GIWH 63 GSWH 54

1 4 2 1 6 5 2 6 2

• 4 2 3

7 8 3 3 8 5 1 0 0 1 6 7 1 3 3 4 94 595 189 117 146 418 1 2 4 1 7 7 1 7 0 8 8 1 7 9 7 8 4 7 3 2 1 3 0 0 1 2 3 9 0 0 1 5 5 1 4 3 8 9 1 5 7 1 3 2

651 127 152 1273 393 83 232 113

• 500

1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 AT BE BG CR CZ DE DK EE EI ES FI FR GR HU IT LT LV NL PL PT RO SI SK SV UK

EU W ater Heater Sales 2 0 1 4 per Type and Mem ber State, in '0 0 0 units

(source: BRG) SOL HPWH GSWH GIWH EINWH ESWH CYL COMBI

• FR, IT, DE, ES are the biggest buyers of ESWHs;
• The EIWHs are sold mainly in three countries: UK, DE and PL;
• DE and UK are the champions of indirect cylinders;
• GIWHs are best sold in ES, IT, FR, PL and PT;
• Greece is the EU’s main solar thermosyphon country;
• And combi boilers are sold most in the UK, IT, FR and NL;

Average storage volume indirect cylinders

475 166 206 191 270 160 199 301 179 266 223 263 224 233 285 281 181 230 219 280 209 209 168 227 238

2 4 5

• 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 AT BE BG HR CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU EI I T LV LT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SV UK EU

I ndirect cylinders, average volum e in litres

ESWHs >30L average storage volume (litres)

118 131 70 118 144 86 91 229 258 172 114 133 68 102 96 112 67 136 78 138 99 89 141 194

1 4 7

• 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 AT BE BG HR CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU EI I T LV LT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SV UK EU

ESW Hs > 3 0 L, average volum e in litres

GSWHs, average storage volume (litres)

398 356 68 301 217 139 264 208 273 122 501 169 92 303 154 402 76 136 194 432

2 2 2

• 100

200 300 400 500 600 AT BE BG HR CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU EI I T LV LT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SV UK EU

GSW Hs, average volum e in litres

Thermosyphon solar tank, average volume (litres)

1 6 4 1 8 5 2 0 6 9 8 2 1 5 3 1 4 1 6 5 3 7 8 1 7 6

2 3 5

• 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 AT BE BG HR CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU EI I T LV LT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SV UK EU

Therm osyphon solar tank, average volum e in litres

Solar water heating 2014 (number & m² )

4 0 2 5 0 4 0 0 7 2 6 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 8 0

solar combi, 80% Central EU(16 m² ) solar WH 80% Central EU (4 m² ), boiler bu solar WH 80% South EU (2.5 m² ), WH bu solar WH South no back-up (2.5 m² )

I nner ring 762 x 1000 solar installations Outer ring 2820 x 1000 m² solar surface

EU Solar Installations 2014 Preliminary estimate VHK

Central-EU : Combi space & WH (16 m² ) Southern-EU : WH with bu (2.5 m² ) Southern-EU mostly : WH no back-up (2.5 m² ) Central-EU mostly : WH with bu (4 m² )

40.0% 9.7% 35.1% 1.8% 5.6% 7.8%

EU2 8 prim ary energy end use households for w ater heating 2 0 15 Total ~ 2 1 1 5 PJ= 50.5 Mtoe (VHK on basis Eurostat 2017)

Electricity (1 GWh= 9 TJ, pef 2.5) Derived heat Gas (32.8% ) & LPG (2.3% ) Coal (1 kt= 28.5 kt) Heating oil (1 kt= 40-42 TJ) Renewables (35% solar, 60% biomass)

Including non-residential: 2820 PJ or 67.3 Mtoe/ year but includes com bi-boilers, biom ass, coal, derived heat! . I n scope < 2 / 3 = ~ 1 9 0 0 PJ

XXS XS S Total/ avg.

• No. Of models

92 104 159 355 A-clas 92 101 152 345 B-class 3 7 10 average KWh/ a 478 473 480 477 average WH eff. 38.7% 38.7% 38.5% 38.6% average elctr/ d. 2.20 2.17 2.21 2.196 Electric I nstantaneous W ater Heater EI W H - CECED database 2016 tapping profile M L XL XXL Total/ avg

• No. of models (all ‘A’ )

12 49 44 2 107 avg climate efficiency in % 96% 125% 121% 103% 119% cold climate efficiency in % 89% 104% 105% 81% 102% warm climate efficiency in % 103% 134% 140% 108% 132% avg Qelec in kWh/ d 0.96 1.25 1.21 1.03 1.19 avg climate electr kWh/ yr 537 873 1410 2093 1079 cold climate electr kWh/ yr 587 940 1641 2676 1221 warm climate electr kWh/ yr 509 738 1210 1998 930 mixed water volume in L 128 276 333 449 286 dB indoors 41.5 48 48.1 15 47 dB outdoors 43.1 48.8 52.6 65 50 Electric Heat Pum p W ater Heater HPW H, CECED Database 2016

A B B B B B C C C C C D D D D D D E E E E E 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 3XS XXS XS S M L XL XXL 3XL

• No. of models

tapping profile

ESWH - Energy Label

CECED dataset models 2016 (n=2442)

E D C B A

Preliminary estimates efficiency Non-elec WHs

EFFI CI ENCY 3XS XXS XS S M L XL XXL 3XL 4XL Storage losses (not smart or off-peak) 285 329 329 430 567 641 728 810 1022 1302 GI WH 40% 45% 55% 65% 65% 65% A A A+ A B B GSWH 42% 48% 51% 52% 55% 56% B C C C Average climate GSHP 150% 150% 150% A+ ELSOL (ESWH bu) 40% 45% 56% 63% 74% 76% B B B B GASSOL (GSWH bu) 52% 69% 85% 96% 114% 117% B B A A GASSOL (GI WH bu) 81% 87% 106% 123% 148% 153% A A A A Warmer climate ELSOL (ESWH bu) 45% 56% 65% 75% 80% 90% GASSOL (GSWH bu) 65% 80% 90% 110% 130% 150% GASSOL (GI WH bu) 90% 100% 115% 140% 155% 175% no label

GI WH and GSWH input stakeholders needed

WH purchase cost , by tapping pattern

(in euro 2016, per unit)

Purchase cost (euros) 3XS XXS XS S M L XL XXL 3XL 4XL EI W H hydraulic 81 199 245 252 EI W H electronic 245 318 420 448 GI W H 200 240 280 350 500 700 GSW H 400 600 750 1250 1875 3100 ESW H 123 123 123 123 253 346 415 647 1100 2975 indirect cylinder 500 750 850 1000 1527 2835 HPW H outdoor-air 2200 2700 3200 HPW H exhaust-air 1200 2500 3000 3500 ELSOL ( ESW H bu) 1563 2286 3165 4147 7600 14575 GASSOL (GSWH bu) 1710 2540 3500 4750 8375 14700 COMBI SOL 1905 3060 3940 4795 8164 14180

WH installation cost, by tapping pattern

I nstallation cost 3XS XXS XS S M L XL XXL 3XL 4XL EI W H hydraulic 80 80 80 80 EI W H electronic 80 80 80 80 GI W H 120 144 168 210 300 500 GSW H 240 360 450 750 1125 1860 ESW H 80 80 80 80 152 208 249 388 660 1785 indirect cylinder 510 960 1020 1110 1426 2211 HPW H outdoor-air 249 388 HPW H exhaust-air 304 415 498 776 ELSOL (ESWH bu) 907 1278 1724 2238 4010 7685 GASSOL (GSWH bu) 995 1430 1925 2600 4475 7760 COMBI SOL 1203 1833 2280 2718 4440 7539

Technical market segmentation

• EIWH: Electronic version dominant, ‘A’ only, 56% shower, 17%<12 kW, 26%≥ 12

kW

• GIWH: No pilot flame (battery- or waterturbine driven ignition), 64% in 10-13

L/min class, 18% in <10L/min, 18%≥13L/min

• GSWH: No pilot flame, condensing 8% in 2014, non-condens 80-120L is 28% of

sales, 120-200L is 35% of sales; 50/50 fanned-flue/open-flue

• ESWH: Half are ‘smart’, average size slightly decreasing, 30-80L is most

popular (30%)

• HPWH: 97% <5 kW, strong sales growth from 46k to 122k over 2010-2014

period

• Hot water cylinders: 120-200L largest at 35% of sales, avg. size slightly

decreasing, bi-/multi-valent tanks increasing.

• Average product life: hot water storage tanks 22.5 years (45 m stock/2m

sales). Dedicated WH currently 15.4 years (142m stock/9.5m sales)

1 5 6 1 3 0 1 0 0 5 0 1 5 3 1 2 6 3 0 1 7 .5 9 .8 1 5 1 0 3 3 5 7 .5 2 .2

2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0 2 0 0

%

Consum er price, value chain ( % of m sp)

Overhead Labour OEM Margin Raw material

msp=100 consumer price =187% of msp

WH annual maintenance cost, by tapping pattern

Maintenance/ year 3XS XXS XS S M L XL XXL 3XL 4XL EI W H hydraulic 15 15 15 15 EI W H electronic 15 15 15 15 GI W H 58 58 58 58 58 58 GSW H 64 64 64 64 64 64 ESW H 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 indirect cylinder 25 25 25 25 25 25 HPW H outdoor-air 80 80 HPW H exhaust-air 90 90 90 90 ELSOL (ESWH bu) 113 160 216 280 501 961 GASSOL (GSWH bu) 124 179 241 325 559 970 COMBI SOL 150 229 285 340 555 942

Energy costs & discount rate

• Average EU electricity price in 2016 was around €0.20/kWh for households

and €0.114/kWh for non-households. Real (=inflation corrected) increase of 14% for former and 5% for the latter over the last 10 years.

• The average EU gas price in 2016 was around €0.064/kWh for households

and €0.030/kWh for non-households. Real decrease of 2% for households and 15% for non-households over the last 10 years.

• For gas heating oil, the October 2017 price was €729/1000 litre

(€0.069/kWh GCV). This is 8.6% higher than the price in 2009.

• Energy prices increased considerably less than was expected  More

comprehensive Life Cycle Cost (LCC) calculation needed in future Tasks.

• The discount rate in LCC calculations will be 4% as indicated in the Better

Regulation Toolbox.

47.2% 9.2% 35.2% 0.6% 4.1% 3.9%

EU28 energy costs households for w ater heating 2015 Total ~ 39.8 bn Euro (VHK on basis Eurostat 2017)

Electricity €18.8 bn Derived heat €3.6bn Gas & LPG €14.0bn Coal €0.2bn Heating oil €1.6bn Renewables (wood) €1.5bn

• Approx. €47 bn including tertiary sector,

but includes com bi-boilers, biom ass, coal, derived heat! I n scope < 2 / 3 = ~ 3 0 bn Euro

Market actors: Water Heater Industry

• EU water heater industry: dozen multi-nationals making up 90% of

turnover and employment in the sector. Names include Ariston, Atlantic, Bosch, BDR Thermea, Stiebel, Vaillant, NIBE, Glen Dimplex, Tesy, Kingspan, Eldominvest, etc..

• Most deliver the full package of HVAC solutions; Glen Dimplex, Tesy,

Kingspan, Eldominvest are exception (no boilers)

• 10-20% of the boiler industry is made up by another dozen of medium-

large companies (non-SME, i.e. >250 jobs): Inventum and Itho Daalderop (NL), OSO Hotwater and Høiax (NO), Hajdú Hajdúsági Ipari (HU), Charot (FR), Lapesa (ES). Mix of importers.

• Independent SMEs with their own boiler-brand are rare and could not be

identified.

• Reflex (hot water tanks), Cotherm (WH thermostats, controllers) and
• thers are OEM specialists for water heaters.

Market actors: Wholesale/distribution

• Wholesale is under pressure from not only the financial crisis but also e-
• commerce. International wholesalers are Ferguson plc (UK), Saint Gobain

(FR) and the GC Group (DE). Every country has national wholesalers for plumbing products.

• Installers, have suffered relatively little from the financial crisis. Nominal

turnover has grown by 37% over the 2004-2015 period. Corrected for inflation this is still +1% per year on average. Possible causes: Extra work related to condensing boilers and heat pumps; more frequent inspection/ maintenance, following EPB rules. Not much impact from water heaters.

• The water heater related work is estimated to create a €6-8bn turnover

for installers, retaining 67 000 - 90 000 installer jobs.

Other market actors

• Test laboratories/notified bodies
• Building inspectors that are not installers (e.g. DE chimney sweeps)
• 15 EU associations from industry sectors & NGOs, national

members associations

• Trade fair organisers (ISH, Mostra Convegno), publishers of

specialised magazines

• Consumers: owners & users, prospective buyers, including private

builders, (social) housing corporations, real estate developers and investors.

• Policy makers

ECOS

REHVA

Associations

Evaluation

• Conclusions can only be preliminary because we still hope to acquire

more/better data.

• The Ecodesign regulation was expected to trigger better ESWH insulation,

smart ESWH, GIWH and GSWH without pilot flame, better insulation for storage tanks, etc.

• The Energy Label regulation was expected to promote renewable and

innovative water heater solutions.

• The aim was to achieve 38% overall efficiency for new sales in 2016 (new

sales in 2005 was 30%, see IA study WH). Preliminary calculations suggest that an efficiency of 41% was achieved for new sales. Innovative heat pump water heater (monobloc., efficiency>100%) is new on the market and sales are rising rapidly. Solar thermal and Package Label overall develop not so good. To be reviewed.

• Market actors are still not using the Energy Label as much as they

could/should. Market pull could be much better. Also technology-shift is very modest.

Thank you