VOLUME 11 UPDATE Water Supply Flood Risk Mgmt Flood Management - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NOAA ATLAS 14 VOLUME 11 UPDATE Water Supply Flood Risk Mgmt Flood Management Task Force Meeting April 20 th , 2018 Mikaela Mahoney Water Management Recreation Fort Worth District U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Mikeala.Mahoney@usace.army.mil “ The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation. ” This document is FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (FOUO). It contains information that may be exempt from public release under the Freedom of Information Act (5 USC 552). It is to be controlled, stored, handled, transmitted, distributed, and disposed of in accordance with USACE policy relating to FOUO information and it is not to be released to the public or other personnel who do not have a valid “need to k now ” without prior written approval of an authorized USACE official.

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES EFFECTS EVERYTHING

NOAA ATLAS 14  Updated precipitation frequency estimates for different regions – New statistical methods – More data – Greater range of duration and ARI – Better preparedness planning  Volume 11 (Texas) expected September 2018  Web-based data platform  Funded by End Users

BASE PROJECT SCHEDULE  Data collection and initial quality control – Done  Technical and Statistical Analysis – Done  Initial spatial interpolation of precipitation frequency estimates – Done  Incorporating Hurricane Harvey – Done  Peer Review – In Progress  Revision of PF estimates – May 2018  Web Publication – September 2018  Documentation Published – December 2018

PRECIPITATION DATA  Formatted 11,931 stations – ≤15 -min – 1-hour – 1-day  Retained 3,900 stations – Length of record – Reliability of record

2-YEAR 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE NOAA Atlas 14 (2018) PLIMNARY RESULTS TP40 (1961)

100-YEAR 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE NOAA Atlas 14 (2018) PLIMNARY RESULTS 13.0 7.0 12.0 6.0 11.0 5.0 10.0 4.0 9.0 3.0 8.0 TP40 (1961)

NOA OAA Atlas las 14 14 Prec ecipitation ipitation Changes nges Hill Country Coastal Region

PEER REVIEW BOARD  Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon – Texas  Maureen O'Leary - NWS/NOAA A&M University/State Climatology  Jon Zeitler - NOAA/NWS  Dr. William Asquith – Texas Tech  Alan Johnson – FEMA University/USGS  Jason Johnson – USGS  Dr. Nick Fang – University of Texas  Simeon Benson – USACE at Arlington  Jerry Cotter - USACE  Dr. DJ Seo – University of Texas at  Landon Erickson - USACE Arlington  Craig Loftin – USACE  Steve Fitzgerald – Harris County  Helena Mosser – USACE Flood Control District (HCFCD)  Steve Pilney – USACE  Saul Nuccitelli - TxDOT  Paul Rodman - USACE  Daniel Huckaby - NOAA/NWS  Max Strickler – USACE  Paul McKee – NOAA/NWS

CURRENT FINANCIAL OUTLOOK NOAA Atlas 14 Funding Budgeted Cost $1,577,138 (Base Effort) Funds Raised to date $1,422,389 Remaining Funds Required $154,749 Additional Studies $4,000,000  Current Partners – Harris County Flood Control District – Brazos River Authority – NCTCOG – City of Austin – TxDOT – City of Fort Worth – USACE

InFRM – Meteorology Research Initiatives NOAA AA Atla las 14  Ongoing studies  NOAA Atlas 14 (September 2018)  Extreme storm HHT & Extreme storm DB  Studies still needed  Other methods to estimate precipitation frequency (check)  Trend analysis  Storm studies

PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES EFFECTS EVERYTHING