VOLUME 11 UPDATE Water Supply Flood Risk Mgmt Flood Management - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Water Supply Flood Risk Mgmt Recreation

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NOAA ATLAS 14 VOLUME 11 UPDATE

Flood Management Task Force Meeting April 20th, 2018

Mikaela Mahoney Water Management Fort Worth District U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Mikeala.Mahoney@usace.army.mil

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES EFFECTS EVERYTHING

NOAA ATLAS 14

• Updated precipitation frequency

estimates for different regions

– New statistical methods – More data – Greater range of duration and ARI – Better preparedness planning

• Volume 11 (Texas) expected

September 2018

• Web-based data platform
• Funded by End Users

BASE PROJECT SCHEDULE

• Data collection and initial quality control – Done
• Technical and Statistical Analysis– Done
• Initial spatial interpolation of precipitation frequency

estimates – Done

• Incorporating Hurricane Harvey – Done
• Peer Review – In Progress
• Revision of PF estimates – May 2018
• Web Publication – September 2018
• Documentation Published – December 2018

PRECIPITATION DATA

• Formatted 11,931

stations

– ≤15-min – 1-hour – 1-day

• Retained 3,900

stations

– Length of record – Reliability of

record

TP40 (1961) NOAA Atlas 14 (2018)

PLIMNARY RESULTS

2-YEAR 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE

13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0

PLIMNARY RESULTS

TP40 (1961) NOAA Atlas 14 (2018)

100-YEAR 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE

NOA OAA Atlas las 14 14 Prec ecipitation ipitation Changes nges

Hill Country

Coastal Region

PEER REVIEW BOARD

• Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon – Texas

A&M University/State Climatology

• Dr. William Asquith – Texas Tech

University/USGS

• Dr. Nick Fang – University of Texas

at Arlington

• Dr. DJ Seo – University of Texas at

Arlington

• Steve Fitzgerald – Harris County

Flood Control District (HCFCD)

• Saul Nuccitelli - TxDOT
• Daniel Huckaby - NOAA/NWS
• Paul McKee – NOAA/NWS
• Maureen O'Leary - NWS/NOAA
• Jon Zeitler - NOAA/NWS
• Alan Johnson – FEMA
• Jason Johnson – USGS
• Simeon Benson – USACE
• Jerry Cotter - USACE
• Landon Erickson - USACE
• Craig Loftin – USACE
• Helena Mosser – USACE
• Steve Pilney – USACE
• Paul Rodman - USACE
• Max Strickler – USACE

CURRENT FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

NOAA Atlas 14 Funding Budgeted Cost (Base Effort) $1,577,138 Funds Raised to date $1,422,389 Remaining Funds Required $154,749 Additional Studies $4,000,000

– Harris County Flood Control District – NCTCOG – TxDOT

• Current Partners

– Brazos River Authority – City of Austin – City of Fort Worth – USACE

InFRM – Meteorology Research Initiatives

• Ongoing studies
• NOAA Atlas 14 (September 2018)
• Extreme storm HHT & Extreme

storm DB

• Studies still needed
• Other methods to estimate

precipitation frequency (check)

• Trend analysis
• Storm studies

NOAA AA Atla las 14

PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES EFFECTS EVERYTHING