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Using the Coastal Salinity Index and predicted streamflow to forecast SC blue crab landings Michael Childress Clemson University Dan Tufford University of South Carolina Junyu Lu University of South Carolina Greg Carbone University

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Using the Coastal Salinity Index and predicted streamflow to forecast SC blue crab landings

Michael Childress – Clemson University

Dan Tufford – University of South Carolina Junyu Lu – University of South Carolina Greg Carbone – University of South Carolina Paul Conrads – USGS South Atlantic Water Science Center

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Year lag = 0 r2 = 0.089 p = 0.048

Childress 2010 SCWRC

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Year lag = 1 r2 = 0.108 p = 0.026

Childress 2010 SCWRC

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Year lag = 2 r2 = 0.177 p = 0.005

Childress 2010 SCWRC

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Year lag = 3 r2 = 0.217 p = 0.002

Childress 2010 SCWRC

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Normal Conditions Drought Conditions

Salinity

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Questions

  • How does drought impact blue crabs?
  • Can we forecast future droughts?
  • Can we use drought forecasts to predict crab

landings in South Carolina?

  • Can we use the Coastal Salinity Index to

forecast US blue crab landings?

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Questions

  • How does drought impact blue crabs?
  • Can we forecast future droughts?
  • Can we use drought forecasts to predict crab

landings in South Carolina?

  • Can we use the Coastal Salinity Index to

forecast US blue crab landings?

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ACE Basin NERR

Fishery Boundary

Childress and Parmenter 2012 SCWRC

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Water Quality Crab Density Disease Predation

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0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Disease Prevalence (%) Station

Disease

Ashepoo Combahee Edisto 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Juvenile Eaten (%) Station

Predation

Ashepoo Combahee Edisto 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Crab Number Station

Crab Abundance

Ashepoo Combahee Edisto 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Median Salinity (psu) Station

Salinity

Ashepoo Combahee Edisto

Childress and Parmenter 2012 SCWRC

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50 100 150 200 250 J S DM J S DM J S DM J S DM J S DM J S DM J S DM Crab Number Month (quarterly)

Crab Forecast

Ashepoo Combahee Edisto

ARIMA Forecast Observed

Childress and Parmenter 2012 SCWRC

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Inflow Salinity Temperature Survival Predation Settlement Disease Abundance Fish Effort Landings pH Oxygen Drought

Childress 2014 SCWRC Negative interaction Positive interaction

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SCBCRABS Individual Based Model

Childress 2014 SCWRC

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Questions

  • How does drought impact blue crabs?
  • Can we forecast future droughts?
  • Can we use drought forecasts to predict crab

landings in South Carolina?

  • Can we use the Coastal Salinity Index to

forecast US blue crab landings?

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IPCC 2013

Drought Forecasting

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Drought Forecasting

Seager et al. 2009 J Climate

Evaporation Precipitation P-E

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Edisto River OpenNSPECT Model

  • Nonpoint Source

Pollution and Erosion Comparison Tool

– GIS-based – Estimates surface runoff – Land use from C-CAP – Soils from NRCS – Precipitation from GCMs (KMNI) using CMIP 5 – Monthly precipitation from 2011-2030

Tufford, Carbone, Lu AWRA 2015

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Edisto River OpenNSPECT Model

Tufford, Carbone, Lu AWRA 2015

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Questions

  • How does drought impact blue crabs?
  • Can we forecast future droughts?
  • Can we use drought forecasts to predict crab

landings in South Carolina?

  • Can we use the Coastal Salinity Index to

forecast US blue crab landings?

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SCBCRABS Flow Input

USGS station 02175000

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SCBCRABS Landings Output

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SCBCRABS Landings Output

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Questions

  • How does drought impact blue crabs?
  • Can we forecast future droughts?
  • Can we use drought forecasts to predict crab

landings in South Carolina?

  • Can we use the Coastal Salinity Index to

forecast US blue crab landings?

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Coastal Salinity Index (CSI)

http://sc.water.usgs.gov/drought/coastal-drought/figures-large/Figure3.png

Conrads USGS SAWSC

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Coastal Salinity Index (CSI)

http://sc.water.usgs.gov/drought/coastal-drought/figures-large/Figure5.png

Conrads USGS SAWSC

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Coastal Salinity Index (CSI)

Little Back River Waccamaw River

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Coastal Salinity Index (CSI)

Year lag = 0 r2 = -0.007 p = 0.367 r2 = 0.138 p = 0.059

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Coastal Salinity Index (CSI)

Year lag = 1 r2 = 0.031 p = 0.218 r2 = 0.183 p = 0.034

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Coastal Salinity Index (CSI)

Year lag = 2 r2 = 0.022 p = 0.247 r2 = 0.304 p = 0.006

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Coastal Salinity Index (CSI)

Year lag = 3 r2 = 0.157 p = 0.051 r2 = 0.386 p = 0.002

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Coastal Salinity Index (CSI)

Year lag = 3 r2 = 0.386 p = 0.002 Landings = CSIt-3 * 0.6989 + 4.845

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CSI Predicts SC Crab Landings

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Coastal Salinity Index (CSI)

Colton et al. 2013 Fisheries & Oceanography

Landings (million lbs) = 0.6989 * CSIt-3 + 4.8451

SC Landings 2016 = 5.25 (4.73-5.72)

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Conclusions

  • How does drought impact blue crabs?

– Increases disease and metabolic costs of migration

  • Can we forecast future droughts?

– Not specifically, but high degree of future occurrence

  • Can we use drought forecasts to predict crab

landings in South Carolina?

– Yes, IBM model can forecast landings trends

  • Can we use the Coastal Salinity Index to forecast

US blue crab landings?

– Yes, allows for extrapolation to other estuaries

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  • Funding

– NOAA-UCAR Subaward Z14-15056 – SC Sea Grant R/CF-10 & R/CF-15 – NERR Graduate Research Fellowship – Clemson Research Incentive Fund

  • Collaboration

– Clemson – M Ptacek – ACE Basin NERR – A Segars, J Leffler – SC DNR – D Whittaker, L DeLancey, A Fowler – CISA – D Tufford, G Carbone, J Lu – USGS – P Conrads

  • Field assistants

– K Parmenter – K Smith – Conservation of Marine Resources Team

Acknowledgements

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Questions?