Usability of Global Seismological Data for Disaster Prediction .. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Usability of Global Seismological Data for Disaster Prediction …..

Agha Syed Muhammad Ayub Shah Bukhari

Natural Disasters

Millions of lives lost …....!

Increasing Natural Disasters

Source: USGS via StandEyo

Increasing population densities result in more losses as compared to the previous disasters of the same size, magnitude and nature.

Concept

Disaster Prediction, Preparedness & Damage Avoidance

• Interpretations of Global Seismological Data
• Early in Time ~ Probably to forewarn
• Using Innovative Techniques for interpretation
• Resolution Enhancement of the Data to gather more information
• Exploring more through collaborative cooperative and other approaches
• Public outreach and inreach

Data Interpretation

• Using Innovative Techniques
• Pattern Informatics
• Event Correlations
• Resolution Enhancement of the Data
• Spectral Resolution to include HF

, VHF and UHF acquisitions for study

• Temporal Resolution pre-occurrence, occurrence and post-occurrence signatures
• Spatial Resolution to include the missed out known active and inactive faults

Pattern Informatics Techniques

Natural phenomena follow patterns ~ Particularly Bio & Medical Sciences

• Temporal Modelling
• Spatial Modelling
• Extraterrestrial Relational Modelling
• Intensity and other parametric Modelling
• Composite Analytical Mapping and Modelling
• Other techniques

Event 1 Event 2 Event 3 Event 4

Partial Pattern ~ False Results

Time Axis Event Patterns Partial Pattern

Event Correlation

• Global Seismic and other Natural Events
• Sequential Correlation
• Energy or Post Facto Effects Correlation
• Temporal, Spectral and other Correlations
• Extra Terrestrial Events
• Effects on surface, subsurface and atmospheric variables
• Energy Increment or Decrement Detection
• Study of Forces

Requisites

• Complete Global Data Set in Unison
• Open Public Availability – Single Source or access portal
• Collaboration and Timely sharing
• Innovative Approaches ~ Ideas to Reality

Above all …………….

Proposition

• Precision in Detection
• Addition of new parameters ~ ‘Geo-Stimuli’
• Analysis of the acquired data ~ Post Facto
• Validation of the acquired data
• Post conditions ~ Geo-Effects

Issues

• Data Acquisition Means
• Around the Globe Deployment of Sensor Arrays
• Sensor Arrays Spacing and specific site deployment
• Political, National and International Concerns Addressing
• Cost Factors
• Related and other issues

Issues

• Data Transport and Storage Networks
• Complexity
• Means
• Cost

Cont’d

Issues

• Data Availability
• Early availability ~ Reduced source to seek time
• Dissemination
• Management
• Assurance
• Validation ~ through independent sources

Cont’d

Prediction Domain

Processing Sensors Handling Reporting

Data Processing

Initial Processing ~ On site

At source processing to determine conspicuous spikes ~ Triggers

Intermediate Processing

Mid way, at storage processing to determine conspicuous spikes ~ Triggers

Final Processing

Detailed processing and storage for archiving

Analysis

Analysis for patterns formation and identifications Time Data Refinement

Sensors

• Autonomous Sensor Arrays
• Power Self-sufficient
• Network-self-configuring
• Processing-capable
• Self healing
• Fundamentals
• Cognitive Radios
• Ad hoc Networks
• Other techniques

Data Handling

• Unified Access through International Coordinating Body ~ CTBTO
• Open public Access to all formats and stages of refinements
• No Replication needed
• Global Storage Network with central control and access
• Single Sign on – Portal
• Timely Knowledge Sharing ~ Discoveries

Reporting

• Innovative reporting mechanisms
• Immediate reporting of Anomalous Detection
• Wide dissemination of the Alarm Conditions
• Reporting to the concerned networks
• Technical
• Information

Thank you