Urban Emission Inventories Activities 2014-2016 Hugo Denier van der - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

FAIRMODE WG2 Urban Emission Inventories

Hugo Denier van der Gon, Rafael Borge, Julio Lumbreras, Leonor Tarrason

7th FAIRMODE Plenary Meeting, Baveno, Italy, 11-12th February 2014

Activities 2014-2016

Outline

• 1. Motivation
• 2. Implications to other working groups
• 3. Proposed Work Plan for 2014
• 4. Request to participants for the Technical meeting
• 5. Questions to discussion

FAIRMODE review of air quality legislation

In 2012, FAIRMODE identified the following major applications of models within the Air Quality Directives: 1. Assessment of air quality levels to establish the extent of exceedances and establish the population exposure 2. Forecasting air quality levels for short term mitigation and public information and warnings 3. Source allocation to determine of the origin of exceedances and provide a knowledge basis for planning strategies 4. Evaluation of plans and measures to control AQ exceedances

… reflected in today’s FAIRMODE structure

e

Urban Emission Inventories

Urban air pollution continues to be a problem

Air pollution in Oslo

Better City Air:

Public AQ Forecast

Oslo kommune Bymiljøetaten

Air Quality Forecast

Air Quality Forecast for Oslo:

The air quality was good this morning, Wednesday March 13, at 8:00: In the afternoon moderate air quality is expected in the downtown area and along the main road network 1, and moderate to poor air quality along the main throughfares2. Road dust and exhaust are the main sources. In the evening moderate air quality is also expected in areas with extensive domestic wood burning3. Good air quality is expected in the remaining city areas. Forecast for tomorrow, Thursday March 14: Moderate to poor air quality is expected in the downtown area and along the main road network, and poor to very poor air quality along the main throughfares. The highest concentration levels are expected during rush hours. Road dust and exhaust are the main sources. In the evening moderate air quality, due to combustion particles, is expected in areas with extensive domestic wood burning. Good air quality is expected in the remaining city areas.

HEALTH EFFECTS RELATED TO THE 4 APPLIED FORECAST CLASSES

1 ”Main road network” is Ring 1, Ring 2, Ullevålsveien and roads of similar traffic load. 2 ”Main throughfares” is Ring 3, E6 and E18. 3 “Areas with extensive domestic wood burning” is Grünerløkka, Sagene, Torshov, Frogner og Majorstuen

Naming Health effect Good Little or no health effect. Moderate Health effects can occur for asthmatic people close to the main road network, especially when excercising. Poor Asthmatics and people with serious cardiovascular- or lung diseases should avoid staying outdoor during longer periods in areas of poor air quality. Very poor Asthmatics and people with serious cardiovascular- or lung diseases should not stay outdoor in areas of poor air quality. Small children should avoid staying outdoor during longer periods in areas ofvery poor air quality . Irritation in the mucous membrane and uneasiness can occur incidentally for healthy people.

FIGUR 1. VARIATION IN THE AIR QUALITY INDEX

FOR OSLO (VALID FOR THE CITY AREA).

Lite forurenset Noe forurenset Mye forurenset Svært forurenset I går I dag I morgen I går I dag I morgen I går I dag I morgen

FIGURE 2 (RIGHT). DAILY AVERAGE

CONCENTRATIONS OF PM10 EXPECTED ALONG THE MAIN ROAD NETWORK TOMORROW, THURSDAY PÅ KARTET.

FIGURE 2 (RIGHT). DAILY AVERAGE

CONCENTRATIONS OF PM10 EXPECTED ALONG THE MAIN ROAD NETWORK TOMORROW, THURSDAY PÅ KARTET.

Yesterday Today Tomorrow Very poor Poor Moderate Good

Example of an air quality forecast issued to the public on 13th March 2013, by the Oslo City Environment Authority. Published on the Net, and in local newspapers. Available ~ 08:00 – 09:00 Presently the forecast is made in Norwegian.

Urban inventories needed for all activities in FAIRMODE

• 1. Forecasting, urban planning and local management

practices

• 2. Assessment of urban air quality and exposure

(ususally for this purpose approaches are centralised, measurements and models are used)

• 3. Reporting – local input to national emission

inventories

• 4. Source apportionment (through modelling)
• 5. Evaluation of measures (through modelling, in

connection to national projections)

Importance of emission inventories is firmly established in the FAIRMODE recommendations (#4)

Recommendation: FAIRMODE recommends to investigate and improve the compilation, consistency and quality assurance of emissions data suitable for AQ modeling under the directive Proposed actions:

• Emissions are not mentioned in the AQD and the need to work to

increase the quality of emission inputs needs to be identified

• Promote guidance initiatives for the compilation of emission data

for AQ models under the directives

• Support competence building initiatives to secure the consistency
• f detailed bottom-up emission inventories with those compiled for

regulatory purposes at local, national and European scale

Will it happen?

….from SG3 perspective this a major accomplishment

8

Fairmode work plan 2014-2016

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New work plan based on Lessons learned from SG3 Questionnaire

1. Urban emission inventories are generally not consistent with national inventories (70% reported non-links) 2. Urban inventories focus mostly on the traffic sector 3. Urban inventories generally use bottom-up approaches for Traffic sector, for others sectors downscaling from top-down inventories is used to 1-5 km2 4. No direct link between emissions and scenarios

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

• 1. Are you involved in

construction / use of a national emission inventory?

• 2. Are you involved in

construction / use of a local / urban / city emission inventory (EI)?

• 3. Does your country
• to your know ledge -

have 1 or more urban / city scale EIs?

• 4. If Q3 =yes, is this

urban inventory directly connected to the national EI?

• 5. If Q3 =yes, w ould

you call the city scale inventory an independent (bottom- up) Emission Inventory? No Yes

A list of 30 selected people was prepared and contacted, including national focal points from 15 countries 12 answers: Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain (2), and UK (3)

Urban Emissions workplan

FAIRMODE WG2 Emission Inventories at urban scale 11

2014 2015 2016 Traffic emissions methodologies review Benchmarking Traffic emissions GHG and AQ emissions from traffic Link to TFEIP Link to MACC emission work Link to ICLEI Determination

• f good

practices for traffic emissions Differences between national and urban traffic inventories Guidance on traffic emissions methodology

11-04-2013 FAIRMODE SG3 Hugo Denier van der Gon

MACC / MEGAPOLI 2005 PM10 total

Using national EIs and spatial distribution proxies we make a down-scaled emission map

DOWNSCALING APPROACH TO URBAN SCALE INVENTORIES Cases: Paris & London – both ~15% of the national population in these cities Cases: Paris & London – both ~15% of the national population in these cities

ALTERNATIVE APPROACH: bottom-up emission models, with information on the vehicle stock, traffic volume and vehicle emission factors

Model Motor type CO2 (g/km) NOx (mg/km) NO2 (mg/km) HP Toyota Prius Gasoline/EL Hybrid 89 6 0,6 136 VW Golf 1,4 TSI aut Gasoline 138 25 2,5 122 Audi A3 2,0 TDI aut Diesel 143 142 71,5 140 BMW 118 d aut Diesel 140 158 79 143 SmartForTwo Diesel 86 160 79 54

EF: Large emission differences

NO2 emissions:

• Hybrid vs Gasoline, a factor of 4
• Gasoline vs Diesel, a factor of 30
• Hybrid vs Diesel, a factor of 125

NO2 conservativte share 10% for gasoline, 50% for diesel.

Emission factors

Difference between EDC tests and actual driving conditions for diesel cars

Hagman, 2011; Alvarez et al, 2008

Laboratory tests at statutory and urban driving conditions at + 23 C Laboratory tests with actual urban driving conditions at -7 C

Bias = 3.5 % Correlation = 0.64

40 80 120 160 200 2012.11.20 2012.11.23 2012.11.26 2012.11.29 2012.12.02 2012.12.05 2012.12.08 2012.12.11 2012.12.14 2012.12.17 2012.12.20 2012.12.23 2012.12.26 RV4 Aker sykehus | NO2 | 0 - 24 h Prognosis | (µg/m3) Rv 4, Aker sykehus (Urban street station)| NO2 | Observations | (µg/m3)

Evaluation of the NO2 Prognosis

11-04-2013 FAIRMODE SG3 Hugo Denier van der Gon

Comparison of the 2 approaches in Paris

• The emission authority in Paris is AirParif (http://www.airparif.asso.fr/).
• Emission inventory for the Ile-de-France region incl. Paris
• To keep consistency we take over complete Ile-de-France region
• Compare local bottom-up inventory to European down-scaled

inventory per sector

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Emission (ton) SNAP

Ile de France emissions of NOx

TNO_MP_2005 AirParif

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Emission (ton) SNAP

Ile de France emissions of PM10

TNO_MP_2005 AirParif

Bias = -0.3 % Correlation = 0.55

Evaluation of the PM10 Prognosis

50 100 150 200 250 300 2013.03.01 2013.03.03 2013.03.05 2013.03.07 2013.03.09 2013.03.11 2013.03.13 2013.03.15 2013.03.17 2013.03.19 2013.03.21 2013.03.23 2013.03.25 2013.03.27 2013.03.29 Manglerud | PM10 | 0 - 24 h Prognosis | (µg/m3) Manglerud (Urban street station) | PM10 | Observations | (µg/m3)

Emission processes: NORTRIP model concept

Surface moisture conditions

Salting

Wear

road, brake and tyre Sanding Cleaning

Freezing temperature

Meteorological conditions Particles TSP PM10

PM2.5 Deposition Drainage

Sand abrasion Retained wear

Road surface

Drainage Spray Spray Ploughing Ploughing Precipitation

Vapour pressure: evaporation Sand crushing

Wetting Wind suspension Direct emissions Traffic suspension

Surface retention Temperature, humidity and radiation Energy balance

Evaporation condensation Salt Traffic turbulence and heat flux

Denby et al., 2013

0.33 0.22 0.17 0.14 0.03 0.28 0.15 0.07 0.08 0.04 0.07 0.01 0.43 0.28 0.22 0.29 0.13 0.60 0.63 0.43 0.48 0.54 0.68 0.46 0.52 0.50 0.45 0.53 0.50 0.67 0.31 0.30 0.44 0.46 0.24

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Hornsgatan 2000 Hornsgatan 2006-2007 Hornsgatan 2007-2008 Hornsgatan 2008-2009 Hornsgatan 2009-2010 Hornsgatan 2010-2011* Essingeleden 2008-2009 RV4 2004 RV4 2005 RV4 2006 NB 2002 Mannerheimint ie 2007-2008* Runeberginkat u 2004 HCAB 2006- 2007* HCAB 2007- 2008* HCAB 2009* HCAB 2010* HCAB 2011* Correlation (R2)

Net daily mean PM10 correlation

Uncoupled model Coupled model

Summary: Daily mean correlation (R2), with and

without moisture modelling

19 33 32 31 22 15 18 33 16 14 44 12 20 11 18 10 11 20 27 36 29 30 20 20 20 32 19 10 32 16 21 12 20 13 13 16

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Hornsgatan 2000 Hornsgatan 2006-2007 Hornsgatan 2007-2008 Hornsgatan 2008-2009 Hornsgatan 2009-2010 Hornsgatan 2010-2011* Essingeleden 2008-2009 RV4 2004 RV4 2005 RV4 2006 NB 2002 Mannerheimint ie 2007-2008* Runeberginkat u 2004 HCAB 2006- 2007* HCAB 2007- 2008* HCAB 2009* HCAB 2010* HCAB 2011* Concentration (µgm-3)

Net mean PM10 concentration

Modelled mean Observed mean

NORTRIP model: Mean concentrations, 18 datasets

Impact of speed on annual mean PM10 in Oslo

Environmental speed limit of 60 km/hr

Change from 60 to 70 km/hr

Impact of speed on annual mean PM10 in Oslo

Request to participants

• First step: share your methodology!
• 2014

– Identification of current (good) practices for traffic emissions – Preparation of benchmarking activities in 2015

• Select cities
• Share activity data
• Share views on indicators

11-04-2013 FAIRMODE SG3 24

Request to participants

• Select benchmarking cities
• Air City Pilot
• CITY Delta
• CITEAIR
• TRANSPHORM
• Covenant of Mayors (CoM)

Antwerp, Berlin, Madrid, Malmö, Paris, Plovdiv, Vienna, Vilnius, Milan, Ploieşti, Prague, Dublin, Oslo, Rotterdam …

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Request to participants

• Common evaluation methodology for traffic emissions
• Common tools for evaluation of different methodologies
• Identify useful indicators for testing emissions
• Common databases with activity data

26

NOx/PM10 ratio Road transport France _national 9.8 Paris_downscaled 8.2 Paris_Bottom-up 15.6 UK _national 16.3 London_downscaled 13.8 London_Bottom-up 13.5

Questions for discussion

• What is the preferred form for guidance on

urban scale emission compilation?

• How to deal with inconsistencies between

national, regional and urban emissions?

• How should we best organize FAIRMODE

emission benchmarking activities?

The best way to combat air pollution is to control its sources

Understanding urban emissions is key to the implementation of the Air Quality Directives