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Office of Policy Planning
presented to presented by Office of Policy Planning
Transportation Revenue Trends: The Fuel Tax
Central Florida MPO Alliance Meeting
January 10, 2020
Office of Policy Planning
TODAY’S OBJECTIVE
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Transportation Revenue Trends: The Fuel Tax presented to presented - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transportation Revenue Trends: The Fuel Tax presented to presented - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transportation Revenue Trends: The Fuel Tax presented to presented by Central Florida Alison Stettner, MPO Alliance FDOT Meeting Director, Office of Policy Planning Office of Policy Planning January 10, 2020 Office of Policy Planning
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Office of Policy Planning
State Fuel Taxes $2,413.7 31.7% Aviation Fuel Tax $40.0 0.5% Federal Fuel Taxes $2,330.6 30.6% Motor Vehicle Fees $1,212.0 15.9% Rental Car Surcharge $142.4 1.9% Documentary Stamps $315.8 4.1% Reimbursements $563.1 7.4% Miscellaneous Revenue $191.3 2.5% Bond Proceeds $393.1 5.2% Interest $10.5 0.1%
FY 18/19 Receipts*
($ in Millions)
*This chart does not include approximately $1.4 billion in Constitutional, County, Municipal, and Local Option fuel taxes which are distributed directly to local governments nor $1.3 billion in Toll Revenue receipts.
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Office of Policy Planning
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Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research
18.4¢ 6.0¢ 14.3¢ 7.9¢ 6¢ 5¢ 2¢ 1¢ 1¢ 1¢
Federal Gas 18.4 cents/Gal. Federal Diesel Added 6 cents/Gal.
18.4¢ 6.0¢ 14.3¢ 7.9¢ 6¢ 5¢ 2¢ 1¢ 1¢ 1¢
State Sales 7.9 cents/Gal. SCETS 14.3 cents/Gal.
18.4¢ 6.0¢ 14.3¢ 7.9¢ 6¢ 5¢ 2¢ 1¢ 1¢ 1¢
FEDERAL STATE LOCAL
CENTS PER GALLON
2020 FUEL TAX RATES
Local Option 1-6 cents/Gal. Local Option 1-5 cents/Gal. Constitutional 2 cents/Gal. Ninth-Cent 1 cent/Gal. County 1 cent/Gal. Mnicipal 1 cent/Gal.
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Office of Policy Planning
Locally Imposed Fuel Taxes
Fuel Tax Rates as of January 1, 2020
Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research
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Office of Policy Planning
6 $1,641.4 $2,752.6 $3,050.0 $3,047.8 $2,742.5 $3,074.3 $3,111.7 $3,182.5 $3,471.2 $3,801.4 $4,497.3 $4,380.6 $6,094.1 $5,234.4 $6,263.9 $6,492.8 $8,129.5 $9,132.1 $8,439.8 $8,201.1 $6,548.3 $6,928.8 $7,866.1 $8,168.3 $9,422.0 $10,117.8 $10,034.2 $10,730.0 $10,822.0 $10,830.1 $10,795.1 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000
FDOT Annual Appropriation History
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Office of Policy Planning
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 FY90-91 FY 91-92 FY 92-93 FY 93-94 FY 94-95 FY 95-96 FY 96-97 FY 97-98 FY 98-99 FY 99-00 FY 00-01 FY 01-02 FY 02-03 FY 03-04 FY 04-05 FY 05-06 FY 06-07 FY 07-08 FY 08-09 FY 09-10 FY 10-11 FY 11-12 FY 12-13 FY 13-14 FY 14-15 FY 15-16 FY 16-17 FY 17-18 FY 18-19 FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22 FY 22-23 FY 23-24 FY 24-25 FY 25-26 FY 26-27 FY 27-28 Motor Fuel Diesel Fuel 7
Forecast
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Office of Policy Planning
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 FY 96-97 FY 97-98 FY 98-99 FY 99-00 FY 00-01 FY 01-02 FY 02-03 FY 03-04 FY 04-05 FY 05-06 FY 06-07 FY 07-08 FY 08-09 FY 09-10 FY 10-11 FY 11-12 FY 12-13 FY 13-14 FY 14-15 FY 15-16 FY 16-17 FY 17-18 FY 18-19 FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22 FY 22-23 FY 23-24 FY 24-25 FY 25-26 FY 26-27 FY 27-28 % Change Total Highway Fuels 8
Forecast
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Office of Policy Planning
What Sets Florida Apart?
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State Fuel Tax Indexed to CPI Extensive Tolling Systems Maximum Use of Innovative Financing Population Growth Record Tourism
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Office of Policy Planning
Average Fuel Efficiency
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Since 1980 fuel efficiency of national fleet has increased 50% Fuel efficiency of new cars increased 55%
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Office of Policy Planning
200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 DVMT
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Office of Policy Planning
AV/EV Impacts of Market Share in Florida
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AV market penetration rate of 35% of vehicles by 2035 (percent of new vehicles on the road) In terms of vehicle fleet penetration, AVs will be approximately 43% of total vehicle stock in 2045 Most aggressive forecast predicts EV share of market will be 35% in 2040 Vehicle stock of electric vehicles expected to be 3.8 million in 2048
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Office of Policy Planning
AV/EV Impacts to Overall VMT
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Estimated that AVs will add 47.5 billion additional annual VMTs over baseline by 2048.
- Assumption is that all AVs in 2048 will be
EVs
- Assumption that 30% of total VMT in 2048
will be eVMT (100.8 billion miles)
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Office of Policy Planning
AV/EV Impacts to Fuel Tax Revenue in Florida
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Through FY 47/48 cumulative impact of increased AV/AFV market penetration will result in $18.3 billion in fuel tax revenue losses. By FY 47/48 annual losses will be 26% of projected revenue.
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Office of Policy Planning