Towards Long-Term Emission Reduction Targets in International - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Policy perspective:

Towards Long-Term Emission Reduction Targets in International Climate Policy

Tokyo, 24th March 2005

Martin Weiß

Federal Environment Agency, Germany

Environmental Effectiveness / social principles

Top down

Adequacy

Various Perspectives

Political Realism

Bottom up

Acceptance 2 0 1 2 + Technology

Bottom up and Top Down

Technical Feasibility

Global/ Regional Impacts Temperature Target Global Emission Profile

Various Perspectives

Differentiation/ Fairness Multistage Triptych 6.0 2 0 1 2 + What technologies when? What cost for whom?

Why set a long term goal?

• Long timescales of impacts vs. Inertia and

lock-in: Long term vision necessary to guide investment and technical change „Give us a date, tell us how much we need to cut, give us the flexibility to meet the goals, and we‘ll get it done.“ Wayne H. Brunetti, CEO and Chairman of Xcel

Energy Inc. (XEL), US.

• Dangerous Changes is value judgement but for

many the „danger zone“ starts at 1°C: Urgent action needed to hedge against future damages

Ethics ...

• respect for the life, health, personal identity, self-

esteem, pursuit of happiness and

• property of other persons (Kant: „perfect duties“)
• respect for human rights („right based morality“)
• not to cause damages (neminem-laede principle)
• equal respect and equal consideration for all

being affected

• obligations to give aid in cases of emergency

... and Impacts

• Many severe

impacts already between 1°C and 2°C

• Thresholds for

large scale irreversible changes around 2°C

... and Impacts (ii)

Impacts on Ecosystems (Hare 2003)

EU: 2°C temperature limit

Source: Meinshausen 2 0 0 5

Emission pathways (i)

Source: Meinshausen 2 0 0 5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtC

• 100%
• 80%
• 60%
• 40%
• 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Change to 1990

450ppm 550ppm

+30%

• 25%

+50% +45% +10%

• 60%

400/350ppm

CO2 only, Source: Ecofys 2 0 0 5

Emissions pathways (ii)

• below 450e ppmv needed for

66% + confidence („Overshooting“ likely)

• Global Emissions have to peak and

decline before 2020

• Reduce below 50% of 1990 emissions

by 2050

• Adaptation needs linked to long term

mitigation

Multistage - Promising box

• Staged broadening of participation
• Threshold criteria to reflect different

responsibilities/ capabilities

• Flexible: Different modes of

participation in different stages

• Delayed participation and flexibility vs.

Environmental integrity

Multistage 550 ppm

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Annex I

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.7

Rest of Eastern Europe

2.1 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.7

Argentina

2.8 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.7

Brazil

1.7 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.8

Mexico

1.8 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.8 4.2

Venezuela

3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.7

Rest of Latin America

1.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.9

Egypt

1.0 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.3

South Africa

2.3 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.7

Nigeria

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.8

Rest of North Africa

1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.3

Rest of Africa

1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3

Saudi Arabia

3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.7

United Arab Emirates

3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.7

Rest of Middle East

2.2 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0

China

1.0 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.2 4.0

India

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5

Indonesia

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.3

South Korea

3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.5

Malaysia

2.5 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5

Philippines

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.0

Singapore

3.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.7

Thailand

1.5 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.3

Rest of Asia

1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8

2020: 17 Regions < stage 3 2050: 10 Regions < stage 3

Multistage 400 ppm

2020: 8 Regions < stage 3 2050: 4 Regions < stage 3

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Annex I

4.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Rest of Eastern Europe

2.6 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6

Argentina

3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Brazil

3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Mexico

3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Venezuela

3.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Rest of Latin America

2.5 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6

Egypt

1.8 2.0 2.7 3.7 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

South Africa

3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Nigeria

1.0 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.0 5.0

Rest of North Africa

2.2 2.7 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.8

Rest of Africa

1.1 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.7

Saudi Arabia

3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

United Arab Emirates

3.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Rest of Middle East

2.8 3.6 3.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

China

3.0 3.7 3.7 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

India

1.0 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.3 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.0

Indonesia

1.0 1.7 2.3 3.0 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7

South Korea

3.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Malaysia

3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Philippines

1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.7 3.8 4.3

Singapore

3.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Thailand

3.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Rest of Asia

1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2

Multistage results

Multistage 2020

• 60%
• 40%
• 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% USA EU25 FRA GER UK R+EEU JPN RAI 400 450 550 Reference Multistage 2020

• 50%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% REEU LAM AFR ME SAsia CPAsia EAsia 400 450 550 Reference Multistage 2050

• 100%
• 80%
• 60%
• 40%
• 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% USA EU25 FRA GER UK R+EEU JPN RAI 400 450 550 Reference Multistage 2050

• 100%

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 900% 1000% REEU LAM AFR ME SAsia CPAsia EAsia 400 450 550 Reference

35% to 55% reduction by 2020 80% to 90% reduction by 2050

New Triptych 6.0

• Phylipsen, D., N. Höhne, R. Janzic,

2004: Implementing Triptych 6.0 – technical report, Ecofys, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

• UBA-Report: Climate Change

02/ 2005

• Co-funded by RIVM, Michel den

Elzen (RIVM)

Global sectoral emissions

Industry

17%

Electricity

25%

Domestic

26%

Fossil fuel production

5%

Agriculture

15%

Waste

3%

Land use change

9%

Sectors as in Triptych 6.0

Sectoral GHG emissions

Triptych 6.0

Triptych parameters

Sector Quantity 400 ppmv 450 ppmv 550 ppmv Share of renewables and emission free fossil in 2050 70% 60% 40% Share of CHP in 2050 10% 35% 20% Electricity Reduction of solid fuels in 2050 compared to base year 80% 75% 40% Structural change factor 0.3 0.3 0.7 Industry Convergence of Energy Efficiency Indicator in 2050 0.4 0.5 0.8 Domestic sector Domestic convergence level - per capita emissions in tCO2/cap/yr in 2050 0.4 0.7 1.3 Fossil fuel production Fossil fuel emission level – % total emissions below base year in 2050 95% 90% 95% Reduction below reference scenario emissions in 2050 – low GDP/cap 70% 50% 20% Agriculture Reduction below reference scenario emissions in 2050 – high GDP/cap 90% 70% 40%

Triptych results

20% to 40% reduction by 2020 60% to 80% reduction by 2050

Comparison of results

400 ppmv 2020

• 70%
• 50%
• 30%
• 10%

10% 30% 50% USA EU25 FRA GER UK R+EEU JPN RAI C&C CDC Mutistage Triptych Reference 400 ppmv 2020

• 50%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% REEU LAM AFR ME SAsia CPAsia EAsia C&C CDC Mutistage Triptych Reference 400 ppmv 2050

• 100%
• 80%
• 60%
• 40%
• 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% USA EU25 FRA GER UK R+EEU JPN RAI C&C CDC Mutistage Triptych Reference 400 ppmv 2050

• 100%

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 900% 1000% REEU LAM AFR ME SAsia CPAsia EAsia C&C CDC Mutistage Triptych Reference

Conclusion (I)

• Developed Countries: Long term target
• f 80% -90% seems appropriate
• At least 30% reduction by 2020

required

• In general: Results depend more on

stabilisation level than on burden sharing approach

• Little flexibility to let the US “off the

hook” in low stabilisation scenarios

Conclusion (II)

Necessary emission reductions across different burden sharing approaches

2020 2050 Global* +10%

• 60%

Annex I

• 25% to -50%
• 80% to -90%

400 ppmv CO2 Non-Annex I Substantial deviation from reference in Latin America, Middle East, East Asia and Centrally planned Asia Substantial deviation from reference in all regions Global* +30%

• 25%

Annex I

• 10% to -30%
• 70% to -90%

450 ppmv CO2 Non-Annex I Deviation from reference in Latin America, Middle East, East Asia and Centrally Planned Asia Substantial deviation from reference in all regions

Conclusion (III)

• Germany: 40% in 2020 and 80%

in 2050 supporting earlier figures

• Japan: 30-35% in 2020 and 80%

in 2050 can be justified

• German proposal: 40% reduction,

conditional on EU 30% reduction by 2020 consistent with results

Further analysis: emission pathways

• Allow for overshooting of concentrations,

e.g. P475-S400 scenario

• Include all greenhouse gasses and

sectors: LUCF

• Integrate with technical and economic

knowledge: intertemporal optimisation

Further analysis: Energy and Economics

Mitigation costs

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 300 400 500 600 700 800

CO2 stabilization level [ppmv] Present value of world GWP loss [%]

AIM A1B MARIA A1T MARIA A1B MiniCAM A1Fl MIND CPP

Further analysis: Energy and Economics

What Technologies ?

Further analysis: sectoral options in DCs

• Developing bottom-up energy strategies
• Stepping stone to long term

sustainability

• Extended CDM: sectoral approach
• No lose targets: resembles economy

wide CDM but could include better than BAU-targets or dual targets

Thank You

martin.weiss@uba.de

www.umweltbundesamt.de/ klimaschutz www.klimaschuetzen.de www.fiacc.net New Address from May 2005: Wörlitzer Platz 1 06844 Dessau Tel: + 49 (0) 340 2103-2193 Fax: + 49 (0) 340 2103-2832

Backup slides ...

References

• Höhne et al. 2005: Options for the second

commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, UBA Climate Change 02/ 2005.

http: / / www.umweltbundesamt.org/ fpdf-l/ 2847.pdf

• Hare and Meinshausen 2004: How much

warming are we committed to and how much can be avoided? PIK-Report 93.

http: / / www.pik-potsdam.de/ pik_web/ publications/ pik_reports/ reports/ pr.93/ pr93.pdf

Comparison 550 ppm

550 ppmv 2020

• 40%
• 30%
• 20%
• 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% USA EU25 FRA GER UK R+EEU JPN RAI C&C CDC Mutistage Triptych Reference 550 ppmv 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% REEU LAM AFR ME SAsia CPAsia EAsia C&C CDC Mutistage Triptych Reference 550 ppmv 2050

• 100%
• 80%
• 60%
• 40%
• 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% USA EU25 FRA GER UK R+EEU JPN RAI C&C CDC Mutistage Triptych Reference 550 ppmv 2050

• 100%

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 900% 1000% REEU LAM AFR ME SAsia CPAsia EAsia C&C CDC Mutistage Triptych Reference

Common but differentiated convergence

Common but differentiated convergence (II)

• Three stages

– No commitments – Positively binding emission targets – Convergence to an equal per capita level within e.g. 40 years as of entry

• Threshold:

– World average GHG/ cap

Common but differentiated convergence (III)

Parameters used for the multistage approach

*: The reduction percentages per year are applied to the absolute emissions in the previous year and therefore lead to an exponential decline in absolute

• emissions. Other slopes (e.g. linear) could be possible.

400 ppmv 450 ppmv 550 ppmv Parameter Unit Only until 2020 Long term Only until 2020 Long term Only until 2020 Long term Threshold to enter stage 2 tCO2eq./ cap 3 3 3-4 3 5 - not entering 4-8 Threshold to enter stage 3 tCO2eq./ cap 4-6 3.5 5-8 3.5-4 8 - not entering 6-10 Threshold to enter stage 4 in 2010 tCO2eq./ cap 4 5-5.5 9-12 Threshold to enter stage 4 in 2100 tCO2eq./ cap 1.5 2-3 3 Threshold for no further reduction in stage 4 tCO2eq./ cap 1.5 1.5 2 Stage 2 (enhanced sustainable development) reduction below reference scenario in 10 years % 20 20 10 15 5-10 5 Stage 3 (Moderate absolute target) reduction below reference scenario in 10 years % 30-35 30-35 20-25 30-35 10-15 10-15 Stage 4 (Absolute reduction) reduction per year* % 4-6.7 7.5-9 1.5-4.2 4.5-5.2 0-2.2 1.5-4

GHG per capita versus GDP per capita

United States of America China Russian Federation India Japan Germany Brazil Canada United Kingdom Italy Korea (South) Ukraine Mexico France Indonesia Australia Iran South Africa Spain Poland Turkey* Saudi Arabia Argentina Pakistan Thailand Venezuela Taiw an* Netherlands Korea (North) Uzbekistan

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 GDP per capita ($US) GHG w/o LUC/cap (tCO2-eq/cap)

Capability and Responsibility- income and emissions per capita

Overshooting

Source: Meinshausen 2 0 0 5