Time of Climate Change (apologies to Love in the Time of Cholera , by - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Graham Warwick, Aviation Week (apologies to Love in the Time of Cholera, by Gabriel García Márquez)

Aviation in the Time of Climate Change

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Aviation’s Commitment

Aviation has been proactive on the environment

➤ 2008 sector commitment to:

▪ 1.5% annual average fuel-efficiency improvements through 2020 ▪ Carbon-neutral growth from 2020 ▪ 50% net reduction in CO₂ by 2050, relative to 2005 (“aspirational”)

➤ US airlines carried 34% more passengers and cargo in 2017 than in 2000,

while emitting no more CO₂

(Nancy Young, VP Environmental Affairs, Airlines for America (A4A), Feb 26 testimony to the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure)

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Aviation’s Commitment

Aviation has been proactive on the environment

➤ 2008 sector commitment to:

▪ 1.5% annual average fuel-efficiency improvements through 2020 ▪ Carbon-neutral growth from 2020 ▪ 50% net reduction in CO₂ by 2050, relative to 2005 (“aspirational”)

But is it still sufficient?

➤ 2015 Paris Agreement:

▪ Keep global temperature rise this century well below 2°C ▪ Pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C

➤ 2018 IPPC Special Report:

▪ Global warning likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052

Is 2030 the new 2050?

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The Public’s Perception

➤ 23% of Swedes opted out of air travel in 2018 to reduce climate impact

(World Wildlife Fund Climate Barometer 2019)

➤ Swedish airport passengers drop year-on-year for 7 consecutive months,

number at state train operator jumped to a record

(Bloomberg, April 2019) (Transport & Environment, European environmental NGO)

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How Well Are We Doing?

Air Transport Action Group’s famous chart from 2008:

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How Well Are We Doing?

The reality:

➤ ICAO CORSIA carbon offsetting scheme:

▪ International flights only (to avoid duplication with domestic schemes) ▪ Voluntary from 2021 (but 78% of international activity covered) ▪ Mandatory from 2027

➤ ICAO global CO₂ standard:

▪ “Technology-following” standard (as is noise, which has worked) ▪ New type-design aircraft from 2020 (entry into service c2024 onwards) ▪ In-production a/c from 2023 (no production beyond 2028 for noncompliant a/c)

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The Technology

➤ Average efficiency improvement has been 1.5%/yr, but comes in steps of

15-20% every 10-15 years

➤ It takes time to deploy new technology into the airliner fleet, but it is

getting faster

▪ Airbus delivered 752 A320s in first 10 years - and 635 A320neos in first 3 years

▪ A320neo is 15% more efficient than A320ceo – will be 20% by 2020

▪ Boeing delivered 2,650 737s in 1998-2007 - and 4,554 in 2009-2018

▪ 737 MAX is 14-20% more fuel-efficient than 737NG

➤ There is more technology waiting in the wings - but an all-new single-aisle

airliner is 10-15 years away

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Sustainable Alternative Jet Fuel

➤ Many feedstock-to-fuel pathways approved, but commercialization has been

slow

▪ Most flights to date used fuel from one supplier - World Energy at 45m gal/yr ▪ More capacity coming on line - c900m gal/yr in 2020 (about half jet fuel)

▪ World Energy, Fulcrum, LanzaTech, Neste, Red Rock, SG Preston, etc

Aviation used 98bn gallons of jet fuel in 2016, so a long way to go

➤ Feedstock availability a concern, but more fuel pathways pending approval:

▪ including green diesel (aka HEFA+) to tap into existing/planned biorefinery capacity ▪ Renewable diesel/jet fuel production forecast to increase four-fold to 19.7bn tons annually by 2030

(Renewable Diesel 2030 - 2019 study by Emerging Markets Online)

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Another Way of Looking at the Challenge

(Roland Berger 2018 research study)

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So what About the Electrification of Aviation?

➤ Small aircraft look feasible - electrifying single-aisles looks impractical,

twin-aisles impossible

▪ In US in 2017, twin-aisles used 57% of fuel, single-aisles used 36% - together 93%

• f emissions

▪ Average single-aisle stage length was 700nm for a/c under 150 seats, 1,100 nm

• ver 150 seats

▪ Announced electric and hybrid-electric aircraft are small and/or short range:

▪ Zumun ZA12 (hybrid) - 12 pax, 610 nm (vs PC-12 @ 1,850 nm) ▪ Eviation Alice (battery) - 9 pax, 565nm ▪ UTC Project 804 (hybrid) - 50 pax, 600nm (30% fuel saving vs Dash 8 at 200-250nm) ▪ Wright Electric (battery) - 180 pax, 270nm (vs A320neo @ 3,400nm)

➤ Is it possible to create an airline market for such short-range aircraft? ➤ Emissions for electric aircraft have to factor in the greenness of the grid

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What Will be the Impact of ‘New’ Aviation?

➤ Urban air mobility - cleaner, maybe, but only when ridesharing over longer

distances?

▪ Fully loaded (4 people) over 100km, eVTOL well-to-wing emissions are 52% lower than internal-combustion and 6% lower than battery-electric vehicles with average occupancy of 1.54 people

(University of Michigan Center for Sustainable Systems paper in Nature Communications, April 2019)

➤ Supersonic air travel - as SSTs burn more fuel, will carbon offsetting be

sufficient?

▪ A fleet of 2,000 SSTs could consume 5-7 times as much fuel per passenger as subsonic aircraft, with CO₂ emissions comparable to American, Delta and Southwest combined in 2017

(International Council for Clean Transportation Working Paper 2019-02)

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Is There a Way Forward for Aviation?

➤ Goal being set for Europe’s Clean Sky 3 aeronautics research program:

▪ Deliver, by the middle of the next decade, mature technologies for an 80% reduction in commercial air transport’s CO₂ emissions by 2050

▪ Aligned with 2015 Paris Agreement

➤ Which means:

▪ TRL 6 by 2025-27 ▪ Entry into service by 2030-35 ▪ Deployed across the fleet by 2050

This is aggressive by aviation standards

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Is There a Way Forward for Aviation?

➤ Goal being set for Europe’s Clean Sky 3 aeronautics research program:

▪ Deliver, by the middle of the next decade, mature technologies for an 80% reduction in commercial air transport’s CO₂ emissions by 2050

➤ “[Passengers] may choose not to fly any more. It is a threat we are all

facing together, so decarbonization is not the flavor of the year”

• Grazia Vittandina, Airbus CTO

➤ “We need to have a sense of being at war; the good news is we are all

• n the same side”
• Ron Van Manen, Clean Sky 2 program manager,

Clean Sky Joint Undertaking

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Thank You

graham.warwick@aviationweek.com

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