Aviation in the Time of Climate Change (apologies to Love in the Time of Cholera , by Gabriel García Márquez) Graham Warwick, Aviation Week Information Classification: General
Aviation’s Commitment Aviation has been proactive on the environment ➤ 2008 sector commitment to: ▪ 1.5% annual average fuel-efficiency improvements through 2020 ▪ Carbon-neutral growth from 2020 ▪ 50% net reduction in CO₂ by 2050, relative to 2005 (“aspirational”) ➤ US airlines carried 34% more passengers and cargo in 2017 than in 2000, while emitting no more CO₂ (Nancy Young, VP Environmental Affairs, Airlines for America (A4A), Feb 26 testimony to the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure) 2 Information Classification: General
Aviation’s Commitment Aviation has been proactive on the environment ➤ 2008 sector commitment to: ▪ 1.5% annual average fuel-efficiency improvements through 2020 ▪ Carbon-neutral growth from 2020 ▪ 50% net reduction in CO₂ by 2050, relative to 2005 (“aspirational”) But is it still sufficient? ➤ 2015 Paris Agreement: ▪ Keep global temperature rise this century well below 2 ° C ▪ Pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5 ° C ➤ 2018 IPPC Special Report: ▪ Global warning likely to reach 1.5 ° C between 2030 and 2052 Is 2030 the new 2050? 3 Information Classification: General
The Public’s Perception ➤ 23% of Swedes opted out of air travel in 2018 to reduce climate impact (World Wildlife Fund Climate Barometer 2019) ➤ Swedish airport passengers drop year-on-year for 7 consecutive months, number at state train operator jumped to a record (Bloomberg, April 2019) (Transport & Environment, European environmental NGO) 4 Information Classification: General
How Well Are We Doing? Air Transport Action Group’s famous chart from 2008: 5 Information Classification: General
How Well Are We Doing? The reality: ➤ ICAO CORSIA carbon offsetting scheme: ▪ International flights only (to avoid duplication with domestic schemes) ▪ Voluntary from 2021 (but 78% of international activity covered) ▪ Mandatory from 2027 ➤ ICAO global CO₂ standard: ▪ “Technology - following” standard (as is noise, which has worked) ▪ New type-design aircraft from 2020 (entry into service c2024 onwards) ▪ In-production a/c from 2023 (no production beyond 2028 for noncompliant a/c) 6 Information Classification: General
The Technology ➤ Average efficiency improvement has been 1.5%/yr, but comes in steps of 15-20% every 10-15 years ➤ It takes time to deploy new technology into the airliner fleet, but it is getting faster ▪ Airbus delivered 752 A320s in first 10 years - and 635 A320neos in first 3 years ▪ A320neo is 15% more efficient than A320ceo – will be 20% by 2020 ▪ Boeing delivered 2,650 737s in 1998-2007 - and 4,554 in 2009-2018 ▪ 737 MAX is 14-20% more fuel-efficient than 737NG ➤ There is more technology waiting in the wings - but an all-new single-aisle airliner is 10-15 years away 7 Information Classification: General
Sustainable Alternative Jet Fuel ➤ Many feedstock-to-fuel pathways approved, but commercialization has been slow ▪ Most flights to date used fuel from one supplier - World Energy at 45m gal/yr ▪ More capacity coming on line - c900m gal/yr in 2020 (about half jet fuel) ▪ World Energy, Fulcrum, LanzaTech, Neste, Red Rock, SG Preston, etc Aviation used 98bn gallons of jet fuel in 2016, so a long way to go ➤ Feedstock availability a concern, but more fuel pathways pending approval: ▪ including green diesel (aka HEFA+) to tap into existing/planned biorefinery capacity ▪ Renewable diesel/jet fuel production forecast to increase four-fold to 19.7bn tons annually by 2030 (Renewable Diesel 2030 - 2019 study by Emerging Markets Online) 8 Information Classification: General
Another Way of Looking at the Challenge (Roland Berger 2018 research study) 9 Information Classification: General
So what About the Electrification of Aviation? ➤ Small aircraft look feasible - electrifying single-aisles looks impractical, twin-aisles impossible ▪ In US in 2017, twin-aisles used 57% of fuel, single-aisles used 36% - together 93% of emissions ▪ Average single-aisle stage length was 700nm for a/c under 150 seats, 1,100 nm over 150 seats ▪ Announced electric and hybrid-electric aircraft are small and/or short range: ▪ Zumun ZA12 (hybrid) - 12 pax, 610 nm (vs PC-12 @ 1,850 nm) ▪ Eviation Alice (battery) - 9 pax, 565nm ▪ UTC Project 804 (hybrid) - 50 pax, 600nm (30% fuel saving vs Dash 8 at 200-250nm) ▪ Wright Electric (battery) - 180 pax, 270nm (vs A320neo @ 3,400nm) ➤ Is it possible to create an airline market for such short-range aircraft? ➤ Emissions for electric aircraft have to factor in the greenness of the grid 10 Information Classification: General
What Will be the Impact of ‘New’ Aviation? ➤ Urban air mobility - cleaner, maybe, but only when ridesharing over longer distances? ▪ Fully loaded (4 people) over 100km, eVTOL well-to-wing emissions are 52% lower than internal-combustion and 6% lower than battery-electric vehicles with average occupancy of 1.54 people (University of Michigan Center for Sustainable Systems paper in Nature Communications , April 2019) ➤ Supersonic air travel - as SSTs burn more fuel, will carbon offsetting be sufficient? ▪ A fleet of 2,000 SSTs could consume 5-7 times as much fuel per passenger as subsonic aircraft, with CO₂ emissions comparable to American, Delta and Southwest combined in 2017 (International Council for Clean Transportation Working Paper 2019-02) 11 Information Classification: General
Is There a Way Forward for Aviation? ➤ Goal being set for Europe’s Clean Sky 3 aeronautics research program: ▪ Deliver, by the middle of the next decade, mature technologies for an 80% reduction in commercial air transport’s CO₂ emissions by 2050 ▪ Aligned with 2015 Paris Agreement ➤ Which means: ▪ TRL 6 by 2025-27 ▪ Entry into service by 2030-35 ▪ Deployed across the fleet by 2050 This is aggressive by aviation standards 12 Information Classification: General
Is There a Way Forward for Aviation? ➤ Goal being set for Europe’s Clean Sky 3 aeronautics research program: ▪ Deliver, by the middle of the next decade, mature technologies for an 80% reduction in commercial air transport’s CO₂ emissions by 2050 ➤ “[Passengers] may choose not to fly any more. It is a threat we are all facing together, so decarbonization is not the flavor of the year” - Grazia Vittandina, Airbus CTO ➤ “We need to have a sense of being at war; the good news is we are all on the same side” - Ron Van Manen, Clean Sky 2 program manager, Clean Sky Joint Undertaking 13 Information Classification: General
Thank You graham.warwick@aviationweek.com 14 Information Classification: General
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