Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen Research Director Raoul Wallenberg - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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På Flukt fra realiteterne? Hvordan utformes fremtidens flygtningepolitikk?

• o0o-

Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen Research Director Raoul Wallenberg Institute

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ARRIVALS TO EUROPE DRAMATICALLY INCREASING

200 000 400 000 600 000 800 000 1 000 000 1 200 000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total No of asylum-seekers in the EU, 1998-2015

Kilde: Eurostat

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Uneven distribution

• f arrivals among

Member States

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REFLECTS ARRIVAL ROUTES…

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BUT ALSO THE FACT THAT SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE CLEARLY MORE POPULAR THAN OTHERS…

Kilde: Eurostat

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STILL, THE EUROPEAN NUMBERS ARE NOTHING COMPARED TO THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN…

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THE EU-TURKEY REFUGEE DEAL

Turkey currently the largest refugee-hosting country in the world:

• The legal challenge: Can Turkey really be defined as

a safe third country?

• The political challenge: Will other Member States

commit to the promised resettlement quotas, and what happens when the quota is exceeded?

• The logistical challenge: What happens when the

routes change?

14425 9918 7887 4289 3257 3004 2349 2033 483 377 63 21 6 21 82 133 149 169 212 220 451 734 830 1033 1149 1642 2807 2995 5357 10498 Switzerland Germany Sweden Norway Netherlands Austria United Kingdom Belgium Luxembourg Ireland Iceland Liechtenstein Finland Croatia Estonia Cyprus Bulgaria Portugal Latvia Slovenia Czech Republic Lithuania Romania Slovakia France Greece Malta Spain Hungary Poland Italy

DUBLIN REGULATION NET TRANSFERS (2008-2013)

THE PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO THE DUBLIN SYSTEM

Source: Eurostat

New proposals tabled by the Commission 6 April 2016:

• Introducing a ”corrective

mechanism” or a completely new distribution key

• Amending the Eurodac database to

allow for cross-referencing and broader usage

• Introducing a single common

European asylum procedure with e.g. common list of STCs

• Making certain rights dependent on

stay in designated country to discourage secondary movement

• Reforming EASO’s mandate to

possibly take on centralised asylum processing

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THINKING ABOUT ALTERNATIVES TO THE PRESENT REFUGEE REGIME…

• No. 1: ”See no evil, hear no evil”
• Keep pushing more advanced border control and deals with

third countries to block acces to asylum

• Engage in ’beggar-thy-neighbour’ policies to push asylum-seekers
• nto other countries

Why it won’t work: A. So far border control has not been able to stop arrivals in Europe, only push refugees towards more dangerous routes and fuel the human smuggling industry

• B. Deterrence and ’ugly duckling’ policies creates a downward spiral to

the detriment of both refugees and the respective governments. The only way to win this game is not to play it at all…

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THINKING ABOUT ALTERNATIVES TO THE PRESENT REFUGEE REGIME…

• No. 2: Outsource the responsibility
• Pay or pressure someone else to take on the responsibility!
• Hard and soft models: examples include Libya, Australia, Turkey

Why it won’t work: A. Sovereignty works both ways: no guarantee that these countries will respect human rights, and many clearly do not neither the intention nor the capacity

• B. Establishing safe areas or special EU asylum processing campsis expensive

and will entail complex legal commitments

• C. Politically unrealistic to get countries already hosting the vast majority of

The World’s refugees to take on Europe’s caseload as well.

• C. Not necessarily cost-effective: Region of origin countries know that they

hold the power and don’t sell themselves cheap.

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THINKING ABOUT ALTERNATIVES TO THE PRESENT REFUGEE REGIME…

• No. 3: Establish a new legal framework
• The Refugee Convention is outdated, too demanding and inflexible
• Negotiate a new Convention

Why it won’t work: A. In fact, the Refugee Convention is probably the most politically sensitive human rights instruments ever concluded

• B. 86% of the world’s displaced persons reside in developing countries –

The Refugee Convention is a tool to keep these countries committed and it is hard to imagine them signing on to a new instrument without much more burden-sharing

• C. Are the problems of distribution and burden-sharing something that is

best dealt with in legal terms?

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THINKING ABOUT ALTERNATIVES TO THE PRESENT REFUGEE REGIME…

• No. 4: The liberals’ wet dream: A fair and equitable global refugee system
• Devise a global (or European) distribution key based on some

combination of GNP, population size, previous number of arrivals, etc.

• Shift asylum processing from individual states to a supranational

authority Why it won’t work: A. Asylum inherently connected to proximity – states are unlikely to sign a ’blank checque’ to protect refugees

• B. Confidence in international governance is at a historic low – states are

unlikely to cede even more sovereignty on such a political issue

• C. Refugees are not just pieces to be moved around the chess board – if

effective protection and access to livelihoods are not guaranteed, we will continue to see large-scale secondary movements

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LEARNING FROM OUR MISTAKES: FIVE TENETS OF A REFORM TO THE GLOBAL REFUGEE REGIME THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY WORK

To be sustainable, any reform of the current refugee regime must A) be holistic and consider the legal, political and economic perspectives rather than try to make a quick-fix B) be inclusive and global; a reform proposal must include all states, not just the privileged and wealthy few C) retain a concept of refuge that remains politically resonant and time-limited D) build on a notion of common but differentiated responsibility E) Move beyond ’container politics’ and dare to think innovatively and broader to solve the inherent dilemmas in regard to refugee policy

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EU-Domstolen Luxembourg Den Europæiske Menneskerettighedsdomstol Strasbourg

International refugee law and the problem of adjudication

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• Geopolitical imbalances and

beggar-thy-neighbour politics

THE EUROPEAN ASYLUM DILEMMA

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ISSUES UNDER INTERNATIONAL REFUGEE AND HUMAN RIGHTS LAW

Examples of human rights challenges in select Member States and EU countries:

• Lacking access to asylum (physical and legal)
• Mandatory detention, including children
• Fines and detention of asylum-seekers irregularly crossing

borders

• Lacking reception facilities
• Cut-downs on social provisions
• Limits to family reunification

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ROOT CAUSES – DE UNDERLIGGENDE ÅRSAGER TIL FORDRIVELSE

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DET INTERNATIONALE SYSTEMS FORSØG PÅ AT GIVE SVAR I 2016

• London donorkonferencen d. 4/2
• Solutions Alliance Roundtable i Bruxelles d. 9-10/2
• UNHCR’s fonference om genbosættelsed. 30/3
• Det humanitære Verdenstopmøde d. 23-34/5
• Højniveaumøde i FN’s Generalforsamling om adressering af

store flygtninge- og migrantbevægelser d. 19/9