Theories and models of the climate-security link Jürgen Scheffran, P. Michael Link, Janpeter Schilling Institute for Geography, KlimaCampus Universität Hamburg International Conference KlimaCampus, IFSH, ZNF of Hamburg University 19/20 November 2009 p. 1
Collective action problem on climate change Critical threshold? Loss of polar ice Shutdown of thermohaline Sea- circulation level Floods rise Collapse Tropical Amazon Monsoon forest suppression Water scarcity Droughts Glacier retreat Control Trend Change in hydrological cycle Diseases Target Loss of coral reefs Species loss Harvest loss Storms •Speed control D x(t) c w (x* (t) – x(t)) p. 2
p. 3 Adaptive control under uncertainty
Key variables and events in the climate-society interaction Social capital and societal instability Demonstrations Climate change Human needs Natural resources Riots and values Migration Temperature Water Soil Poverty CO 2 concentration Food Water Lack of legitimacy Solar radiation Energy Ecosystems Weak institutions Precipitation Health Forest Crime/urban violence Wind, clouds Jobs/income Impact Fishery Stress Response Civil unrest, rebellion Weather extremes Transportation Biodiversity Coups d’et Ocean currents Education Oceans/coasts Terrorism Ice melting Lifestyle Glacier/ice Ethnic/racial conflict Sea-level rise Community Environmental conflict Negotiations Mítigation Vulnerability Adaptation Energy Economic Strategies and Technology production Institutions p. 4
p. 5 Human Needs H Climate-society interaction Resources Society Natural Policy N S Climate System C
Environmental tolerance and viability V Viability V Environmental change T Environmental Tolerance Factor X p. 6
Interaction natural resources and human needs Natural Resources N Climate Human System Needs C H Society Policy S p. 9
Balance between natural resources and human needs - + Resource Distribution Risk Human Utility needs Interactions Networks V=X • d • p • (v – r) = V* E • d • p •(v-r)=V* p. 11
Strategies for sustainable development Efficiency Efficiency Sufficiency Sufficiency Cooperation Cooperation Conservation Conservation Equity Equity Risk reduction Risk reduction Negotiation Negotiation - + Resource Distribution Risk Human Utility needs Interactions Networks V=X • d • p • (v – r) = V* E • d • p •(v-r)=V* p. 12
Impact of human action on climate change Natural Resources N Climate Human System Needs C H Society Policy S p. 13
Factors for greenhouse gas emissions Labor Carbon Energy Population Productivity Emissions Intensity Intensity x x x = CO 2 CO 2 /PE PE/GNP GNP/P P CO 2 : Emissions PE: Primary energy consumption GDP: Gross Domestic Product P: Population p. 15
Strategies for sustainable development Labor Carbon Energy Population Productivity Emissions Intensity Intensity x x x = CO 2 CO 2 /PE PE/GNP GNP/P P Investment Control of Energy mix Substitution in social population and and land use growth and human energy saving capital Technical Lifestyles innovation and CO 2 : Emissions Institutional Demographic and consumption PE: Primary energy transition and diffusion patterns consumption technical GDP: Gross Domestic Product innovation P: Population Strategies for a Sustainability Transition p. 16
Impact of climate change on human needs Natural Resources N Climate Human System Needs C H Society Policy S p. 17
Factors of climate-risk assessment Action Value Mitigation Adaptation Stability Tolerable Complexity danger? Risk Probability Damage Efforts Perception Vulnerability Data Uncertainties Socio-economic Energy/climate Viability models models Anticipation p. 19
Response functions Response Max Proportionate Damped response response Bell-shaped response Logistic Threshold response response Stimulus Negative feedback p. 20
p. 21 The syndrome approach
p. 22 Variables of smallholder agriculture in the Sahel Syndrome
Systemic overview of the farmers-herders land use conflict in North Africa agricultural agricultural farmers agricultural use: production: yield labor wellbeing irrigation climate consumption by human change Farmers water availability precipitation population migration conflict potential growth land land availability degradation consumption by cattle cattle herders cattle production: meet labor wellbeing use by human Environment Herders negative feedback positive feedback neutral or ambivalent feedback p. 23
Systemic overview of the Nile water conflict climate industrial industrial water availability rural industrial use population change production labor upstream population growth agricultural use: agricultural agricultural human precipitation land availability irrigation production: yield labor wellbeing conflict between rural and urban population patterns upstream internal human conflict consumption sea level upstream rise water conflict between geographic regions pollution floods human agricultural use: agricultural agricultural wellbeing water availability irrigation production: yield labor downstream salinization human consumption land availability downstream land degradation industrial industrial urban industrial use production labor population land internal human erosion conflict wellbeing migration outflow to human the ocean consumption downstream p. 24 negative feedback positive feedback neutral or ambivalent feedback
Impact of climate change on human needs Natural Resources N Climate Human System Needs C H Society Policy S p. 25
System-actor interaction Actor Capabilities Observation Rules and and and efforts evaluation priorities Action Observation Action cycle Resource System X p. 27
Single-actor adaptation cycle Decision Evaluation Values Capability Action System Goals to change Effort Impact Observation p. 28
Actor-actor interaction Actor 1 Rules Capabilities Observation and and and priorities efforts evaluation P 1 C 1 V 1 Information Communication System x Sensitivity System y Sensitivity Actor 2 Observation Rules Capabilities and and and evaluation priorities efforts V 2 P 2 C 2 p. 29
Conflict or Cooperation? Efforts Conflicting - Actor 2 relation Max Neutral relation Cooperative relation + Efforts Actor 1 p. 30
Conflict or Cooperation? - Efforts Conflicting Actor 2 relation Max Asymmetric relation Neutral +- relation Response Actor 2 + Cooperative relation -+ Response Max Efforts Actor 1 Actor 1 p. 31
Social network in the Darfur conflict Sudan United Regular Government Nations ? forces Arab nomadic Humanitarian Janjaweed Cease fire (pastoral) organisations militia herders African Union African Rebel farmers groups Chad Positive coupling Negative coupling p. 32
Social network of actors in international climate policy Europe US Other Consumers Firms Umbrella States Positions perceptions on climate risks NGOs Media Scientists (IPCC) G77 Russia China p. 34
Integrated, interavtive and participative climate-security lab Indicators for evaluation Human security Societal Stability Violent conflict Migration Disaster Water Food America Europe Africa Middle East Asia Australia Regional climate-security hot spots p. 37
Impact and responses in climate-society interaction +- Natural - -+ Resources N - + +- -+ Climate Human +- - Change Values C H + +- +- + Societal Stability - + S +- p. 40
Integrated strategies for stabilizing climate-society interaction Sustainable Development of Protecting and Preserving Welfare and Adaptive Capacity the Natural Resource Base Natural Resources s Impact s n e o Protection r i t t S a v r e s e r P Reducing and Managing Risks, Instabilities and Conflicts Climate Human Change Needs Cooperation, Coalition Formation and Global Governance Adaptation Mitigation Energy & Carbon Response Societal Reduce Emissions and Stability Stakeholder Participation and Improve Resource Efficiency Alternative Dispute Resolution Fair Distribution and Climate Justice p. 41
p. 42
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