Theories and models of the climate-security link Jrgen Scheffran, P. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Theories and models of the climate-security link Jrgen Scheffran, P. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Theories and models of the climate-security link Jrgen Scheffran, P. Michael Link, Janpeter Schilling Institute for Geography, KlimaCampus Universitt Hamburg International Conference KlimaCampus, IFSH, ZNF of Hamburg University 19/20


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Theories and models of the climate-security link

Jürgen Scheffran, P. Michael Link, Janpeter Schilling Institute for Geography, KlimaCampus Universität Hamburg International Conference KlimaCampus, IFSH, ZNF of Hamburg University 19/20 November 2009

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Collective action problem on climate change

Trend Control Target

Shutdown of thermohaline circulation Collapse Amazon forest Floods Loss of coral reefs Species loss Harvest loss Sea- level rise Droughts Loss of polar ice Change in hydrological cycle Glacier retreat Storms Diseases Tropical Monsoon suppression Water scarcity

Critical threshold?

  • Speed control Dx(t) c

w

(x* (t) – x(t))

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Adaptive control under uncertainty

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Natural resources Soil Water Ecosystems Forest Fishery Biodiversity Oceans/coasts Glacier/ice

Stress

Social capital and societal instability Demonstrations Riots Migration Poverty Lack of legitimacy Weak institutions Crime/urban violence Civil unrest, rebellion Coups d’et Terrorism Ethnic/racial conflict Environmental conflict Negotiations Human needs and values Water Food Energy Health Jobs/income Transportation Education Lifestyle Community Climate change Temperature CO2 concentration Solar radiation Precipitation Wind, clouds Weather extremes Ocean currents Ice melting Sea-level rise

Impact Response

Economic production Adaptation Energy Technology Mítigation Strategies and Institutions Vulnerability

Key variables and events in the climate-society interaction

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Climate-society interaction

Climate System

C

Human Needs

H

Natural Resources

N

Society Policy

S

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Environmental tolerance and viability

Viability V

Tolerance Environmental Factor X T

V

Environmental change

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Interaction natural resources and human needs

Climate System

C

Human Needs

H

Natural Resources

N

Society Policy

S

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Resource Distribution Interactions Networks Risk Utility Human needs

  • +

E • d • p •(v-r)=V*

Balance between natural resources and human needs

V=X • d • p • (v – r) = V*

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Resource Distribution Interactions Networks Risk Utility Human needs

  • +

Conservation Conservation Equity Equity

Cooperation Cooperation Negotiation Negotiation

Efficiency Efficiency Risk reduction Risk reduction Sufficiency Sufficiency

E • d • p •(v-r)=V* Strategies for sustainable development

V=X • d • p • (v – r) = V*

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Impact of human action on climate change

Climate System

C

Human Needs

H

Natural Resources

N

Society Policy

S

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Emissions

CO2

Population

P

Labor Productivity

GNP/P

Energy Intensity

PE/GNP

Carbon Intensity

CO2 /PE

x x x

Factors for greenhouse gas emissions

CO2 : Emissions PE: Primary energy consumption GDP: Gross Domestic Product P: Population

=

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Emissions

CO2

Population

P

Labor Productivity

GNP/P

Energy Intensity

PE/GNP

Carbon Intensity

CO2 /PE

x x x

Energy mix and land use Technical innovation and diffusion Substitution and energy saving Lifestyles and consumption patterns Investment in social and human capital Institutional and technical innovation Control of population growth Demographic transition

Strategies for sustainable development

CO2 : Emissions PE: Primary energy consumption GDP: Gross Domestic Product P: Population

= Strategies for a Sustainability Transition

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Impact of climate change on human needs

Climate System

C

Human Needs

H

Natural Resources

N

Society Policy

S

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Factors of climate-risk assessment

Mitigation Adaptation

Probability Damage Risk

Perception

Socio-economic models Energy/climate models

Data Uncertainties Stability Complexity

Efforts Value Tolerable danger? Viability Vulnerability Anticipation Action

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Response functions

Response Stimulus

Proportionate response Bell-shaped response

Max

Logistic response Damped response Negative feedback Threshold response

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The syndrome approach

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Variables of smallholder agriculture in the Sahel Syndrome

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Systemic overview of the farmers-herders land use conflict in North Africa

agricultural use: irrigation consumption by human consumption by cattle use by human water availability agricultural production: yield cattle production: meet agricultural labor cattle labor population growth migration climate change precipitation land degradation farmers wellbeing herders wellbeing Farmers Herders land availability conflict potential Environment negative feedback positive feedback neutral or ambivalent feedback

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Systemic overview

  • f the Nile water conflict

industrial use agricultural use: irrigation human consumption agricultural use: irrigation human consumption industrial use human consumption water availability upstream

  • utflow to

the ocean water availability downstream industrial production agricultural production: yield agricultural production: yield industrial production industrial labor agricultural labor agricultural labor industrial labor population growth migration climate change floods precipitation patterns water pollution land degradation land erosion sea level rise salinization human wellbeing human wellbeing human wellbeing upstream downstream rural population urban population land availability upstream land availability downstream

conflict between geographic regions internal conflict internal conflict conflict between rural and urban population

negative feedback positive feedback neutral or ambivalent feedback

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Impact of climate change on human needs

Climate System

C

Human Needs

H

Natural Resources

N

Society Policy

S

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System-actor interaction

Rules and priorities

Resource System X

Observation and evaluation Capabilities and efforts

Actor

Action cycle Action Observation

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Single-actor adaptation cycle

Capability to change Action Values Goals Impact Evaluation Observation System Decision Effort

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Actor-actor interaction

Rules and priorities P1 Observation and evaluation V1 Capabilities and efforts C1

Actor 1

Rules and priorities P2 Capabilities and efforts C2 Observation and evaluation V2

Actor 2 Communication Information System x System y

Sensitivity Sensitivity

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Conflict or Cooperation?

Efforts Actor 2 Efforts Actor 1

Cooperative relation Conflicting relation Neutral relation

Max

  • +
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Conflict or Cooperation?

Efforts Actor 2 Efforts Actor 1 Cooperative relation Conflicting relation Neutral relation Max Max Asymmetric relation

Response Actor 2 Response Actor 1

  • +

+-

  • +
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Social network in the Darfur conflict

Positive coupling Negative coupling

Janjaweed militia Rebel groups Regular forces Arab nomadic (pastoral) herders Cease fire Sudan Government African farmers United Nations Humanitarian

  • rganisations

African Union Chad

?

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Europe Russia G77 China

US Umbrella

Other States

Positions perceptions

  • n climate

risks

Social network of actors in international climate policy

Firms Consumers NGOs Scientists (IPCC) Media

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Africa Europe America Regional climate-security hot spots Human security Violent conflict Societal Stability Indicators for evaluation

Water Food Disaster Migration

Asia Middle East Australia

Integrated, interavtive and participative climate-security lab

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Impact and responses in climate-society interaction

Climate Change

C

Human Values

H

Natural Resources

N

Societal Stability

S

+ +- +

  • +

+ +

  • +
  • +-
  • +-

+- +- +-

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Integrated strategies for stabilizing climate-society interaction

Climate Change Human Needs Natural Resources Societal Stability

Response Energy & Carbon Impact S t r e s s Mitigation Adaptation Protection P r e s e r v a t i

  • n

Sustainable Development of Welfare and Adaptive Capacity Reduce Emissions and Improve Resource Efficiency Protecting and Preserving the Natural Resource Base Fair Distribution and Climate Justice Reducing and Managing Risks, Instabilities and Conflicts Stakeholder Participation and Alternative Dispute Resolution Cooperation, Coalition Formation and Global Governance

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