Theories and models of the climate-security link Jrgen Scheffran, P. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Theories and models of the climate-security link Jrgen Scheffran, P. Michael Link, Janpeter Schilling Institute for Geography, KlimaCampus Universitt Hamburg International Conference KlimaCampus, IFSH, ZNF of Hamburg University 19/20
Theories and models of the climate-security link
Jürgen Scheffran, P. Michael Link, Janpeter Schilling Institute for Geography, KlimaCampus Universität Hamburg International Conference KlimaCampus, IFSH, ZNF of Hamburg University 19/20 November 2009
Collective action problem on climate change
Trend Control Target
Shutdown of thermohaline circulation Collapse Amazon forest Floods Loss of coral reefs Species loss Harvest loss Sea- level rise Droughts Loss of polar ice Change in hydrological cycle Glacier retreat Storms Diseases Tropical Monsoon suppression Water scarcity
Critical threshold?
w
(x* (t) – x(t))
Natural resources Soil Water Ecosystems Forest Fishery Biodiversity Oceans/coasts Glacier/ice
Stress
Social capital and societal instability Demonstrations Riots Migration Poverty Lack of legitimacy Weak institutions Crime/urban violence Civil unrest, rebellion Coups d’et Terrorism Ethnic/racial conflict Environmental conflict Negotiations Human needs and values Water Food Energy Health Jobs/income Transportation Education Lifestyle Community Climate change Temperature CO2 concentration Solar radiation Precipitation Wind, clouds Weather extremes Ocean currents Ice melting Sea-level rise
Impact Response
Economic production Adaptation Energy Technology Mítigation Strategies and Institutions Vulnerability
Key variables and events in the climate-society interaction
Climate-society interaction
Climate System
C
Human Needs
H
Natural Resources
N
Society Policy
S
Environmental tolerance and viability
Viability V
Tolerance Environmental Factor X T
V
Environmental change
Interaction natural resources and human needs
Climate System
C
Human Needs
H
Natural Resources
N
Society Policy
S
Resource Distribution Interactions Networks Risk Utility Human needs
Balance between natural resources and human needs
Resource Distribution Interactions Networks Risk Utility Human needs
Conservation Conservation Equity Equity
Cooperation Cooperation Negotiation Negotiation
Efficiency Efficiency Risk reduction Risk reduction Sufficiency Sufficiency
Impact of human action on climate change
Climate System
C
Human Needs
H
Natural Resources
N
Society Policy
S
Emissions
CO2
Population
P
Labor Productivity
GNP/P
Energy Intensity
PE/GNP
Carbon Intensity
CO2 /PE
Factors for greenhouse gas emissions
CO2 : Emissions PE: Primary energy consumption GDP: Gross Domestic Product P: Population
=
Emissions
CO2
Population
P
Labor Productivity
GNP/P
Energy Intensity
PE/GNP
Carbon Intensity
CO2 /PE
Energy mix and land use Technical innovation and diffusion Substitution and energy saving Lifestyles and consumption patterns Investment in social and human capital Institutional and technical innovation Control of population growth Demographic transition
Strategies for sustainable development
CO2 : Emissions PE: Primary energy consumption GDP: Gross Domestic Product P: Population
= Strategies for a Sustainability Transition
Impact of climate change on human needs
Climate System
C
Human Needs
H
Natural Resources
N
Society Policy
S
Mitigation Adaptation
Probability Damage Risk
Perception
Socio-economic models Energy/climate models
Data Uncertainties Stability Complexity
Efforts Value Tolerable danger? Viability Vulnerability Anticipation Action
Response functions
Response Stimulus
Proportionate response Bell-shaped response
Max
Logistic response Damped response Negative feedback Threshold response
The syndrome approach
Variables of smallholder agriculture in the Sahel Syndrome
Systemic overview of the farmers-herders land use conflict in North Africa
agricultural use: irrigation consumption by human consumption by cattle use by human water availability agricultural production: yield cattle production: meet agricultural labor cattle labor population growth migration climate change precipitation land degradation farmers wellbeing herders wellbeing Farmers Herders land availability conflict potential Environment negative feedback positive feedback neutral or ambivalent feedback
Systemic overview
industrial use agricultural use: irrigation human consumption agricultural use: irrigation human consumption industrial use human consumption water availability upstream
the ocean water availability downstream industrial production agricultural production: yield agricultural production: yield industrial production industrial labor agricultural labor agricultural labor industrial labor population growth migration climate change floods precipitation patterns water pollution land degradation land erosion sea level rise salinization human wellbeing human wellbeing human wellbeing upstream downstream rural population urban population land availability upstream land availability downstream
conflict between geographic regions internal conflict internal conflict conflict between rural and urban population
negative feedback positive feedback neutral or ambivalent feedback
Impact of climate change on human needs
Climate System
C
Human Needs
H
Natural Resources
N
Society Policy
S
System-actor interaction
Rules and priorities
Resource System X
Observation and evaluation Capabilities and efforts
Actor
Action cycle Action Observation
Capability to change Action Values Goals Impact Evaluation Observation System Decision Effort
Actor-actor interaction
Rules and priorities P1 Observation and evaluation V1 Capabilities and efforts C1
Actor 1
Rules and priorities P2 Capabilities and efforts C2 Observation and evaluation V2
Actor 2 Communication Information System x System y
Sensitivity Sensitivity
Efforts Actor 2 Efforts Actor 1
Cooperative relation Conflicting relation Neutral relation
Max
Efforts Actor 2 Efforts Actor 1 Cooperative relation Conflicting relation Neutral relation Max Max Asymmetric relation
Response Actor 2 Response Actor 1
+-
Social network in the Darfur conflict
Positive coupling Negative coupling
Janjaweed militia Rebel groups Regular forces Arab nomadic (pastoral) herders Cease fire Sudan Government African farmers United Nations Humanitarian
African Union Chad
?
Europe Russia G77 China
US Umbrella
Other States
Positions perceptions
risks
Social network of actors in international climate policy
Firms Consumers NGOs Scientists (IPCC) Media
Africa Europe America Regional climate-security hot spots Human security Violent conflict Societal Stability Indicators for evaluation
Water Food Disaster Migration
Asia Middle East Australia
Integrated, interavtive and participative climate-security lab
Impact and responses in climate-society interaction
Climate Change
C
Human Values
H
Natural Resources
N
Societal Stability
S
+ +- +
+ +
+- +- +-
Integrated strategies for stabilizing climate-society interaction
Climate Change Human Needs Natural Resources Societal Stability
Response Energy & Carbon Impact S t r e s s Mitigation Adaptation Protection P r e s e r v a t i
Sustainable Development of Welfare and Adaptive Capacity Reduce Emissions and Improve Resource Efficiency Protecting and Preserving the Natural Resource Base Fair Distribution and Climate Justice Reducing and Managing Risks, Instabilities and Conflicts Stakeholder Participation and Alternative Dispute Resolution Cooperation, Coalition Formation and Global Governance