Stability Programme, 2018 Update John McCarthy Department of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Stability Programme, 2018 Update John McCarthy Department of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 15, 2023 177 likes •276 views

Stability Programme, 2018 Update John McCarthy Department of Finance 17 th April 2018 Stability Programme context Legal requirement: - set out in Stability and Growth Pact : reg. 1466/97 - all MS submit final SPUs by end-April :

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Stability Programme, 2018 Update

John McCarthy Department of Finance 17th April 2018

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SLIDE 2

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  • Legal requirement:
  • set out in Stability and Growth Pact

: reg. 1466/97

  • all MS submit final SPUs by end-April

: Commission and Council

  • legislation also requires independent endorsement of economic forecasts

: IFAC endorsed

  • Process:
  • draft SPU published (17th April)

: ‘European Semester’

  • Minister for Finance presents to Budget Oversight Committee (18th April)
  • final version submitted (30th April)

: laid before Dáil Éireann

  • Summer Economic Statement:
  • published in June / July

Stability Programme – context

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Short-term economic prospects remain generally favourable…

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0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

GDP annual growth rate

(per cent change)

forecasts

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Employment set to return to pre-crisis peak this year…

4 forecasts

1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

forecasts pre-crisis peak for every 10 jobs lost during the crisis, 9 have now been replaced

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General government balance = unchanged from autumn forecasts…

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  • 12.0
  • 10.0
  • 8.0
  • 6.0
  • 4.0
  • 2.0

0.0 2.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

per cent of GDP

forecasts

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Public debt remains elevated…

6 forecasts

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

per cent of GDP debt-GDP debt-GNI*

forecasts

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Risks tilted to the downside…

  • Short-term
  • Brexit

: Irish economy exposed : already seeing some impact

  • external demand (UK economy slowing)
  • appreciation of euro / sterling
  • disruption to world trade
  • geopolitical
  • Medium-term risks
  • Brexit
  • corporation tax landscape

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Summary: macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, April 2018

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year-on-year per cent change (unless stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GDP 7.8 5.6 4.0 3.4 2.8 GNP 6.6 5.6 3.7 3.1 2.6 Inflation (HICP) 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.6 Employment 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.7 Unemployment (rate) 6.7 5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 GG balance (per cent of GDP)

  • 0.3
  • 0.2
  • 0.1

0.3 0.4 GG debt (per cent of GDP) 68.0 66.0 63.5 60.2 58.7 GG debt (per cent of GNI*) 100.1 96.9 93.7 88.9 86.8