SLIDE 1
PI R 1 N C: Telephone: (212) 867-0052
Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, Inc.
1 2 2 E A S T 4 2 n d S T R E E T
New York, N. Y. 10168
CITGO CORPORATION PRESENTATION JUNE 28,
1983
SLIDE 2 Horldtl) Oil Demand United States Western Europe
Japan Other Total Korld Oil Supplies United States (2)
Mexico Uorth Sen Othor(3) llon-OPEC Communist Met Exports
OPECi Crude 1!GL
Total Supplies Comncrcinl/Strategic
Inventory Change fll 17.0 14.2
5.2
50.0
10.7 2.5 2.4
JL^S
22.1 1.1.
24.8
25.8 49.0
02
15.5 12.0 ' 4.3
1 1 . 5
45.3 10.7
2.8 2.4
22.3
1.3
23.2
JLJ1
24.2 47.0 +2.5
1981
fll 15.5 11.9
4.3
45.2 10.8
2.5 2.3
22.0
1.5
20.8 21.0 45.3
' +0.1
(Million
QA 16.1 13.8 4.9
ll.fi
48.4 10.7 2.4 2.4
6.5
22.0
1.6
21.1 22.1 45.7
Annual 16.0
4.7
11,6.
47.3 10.7
2.G
2.4 22.1
1.4
22.5
23.5 47.0
JQ1
15.8 13.7 4.9
llai
47.8
10.8 2.7 2.5
22.4
1.4
19.4
20.4 44.2
Barrels Per Day) 1902
Q2
15.3 11.9 4.1
1 1 . 2
44.6
10.8 3.0 2.7
22.9
1.7
17.3
. 0.9
42.8
14.8 11.7
'4.1
11*2
43.8
3.1
2.7
,6.6
23.2
1.6 18.0 18.9
43.7
fli
15.1 13.0 4.5
12^1
45.7
10.0 3.2 2.8
23.7
1.7
19.2
JLJL 20.1 45.5
Annual
. Avg
.
15.2 12.6 4.4
1 1 . 2
45.5 10.0 3.0 2.7 _JLfi 23.1
1.6
18.5 19.4 44.1
fll
15.1 12.7 4.5
45.2 10.8
2.8 2.9 JL.fi
?.3.5
1.6
15.2
15.9 41.0
02 15.1 11.4 3.9
43.3 10.8
3.0 2.9
_J_.Q 23.7
1.6
15.9 _o.n 16.7 42.0
1903
£2 15.0 11.4
4.0 43.4 10.7
3-'.0
3.1
JL.1
23.9
1.6
17.4 IP. 3 43.0
H O . 4
DA 15.5 13.3 4.C 46.9 10.7
3.1
3.3
2 A '.2
1.6
20.1 P.I.I 46.9 Annual
15.2 12.2 4.3
44.7 10.0
3.0 3.0
?.3J. n 1.6
17.1
Tr.o
43.4
1) non-communist world. 2) Includes processing gain. 3) Includes cynthetic and process gain outcide the United States. llotot
Ruin of parto may not equal total owing to rounding
SLIDE 3 NON-COMMUNIST WORLD OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND
(MILLION BARRELS PER DAY) 1978 1982 1985 1990 CONSUMPTION 51,5
45,4
/47.0
49,4
OTHER ,ADJUSTMENTSA)
+0,3 +0,2
TOTAL NCW REQUIREMENTS
51,4 44.1 47,3
49,6 NON-OPEC SUPPLIESB) 20.8 24.7 25,9 25,9 OPEC NGL PRODUCTION
0,7 0,9 1,4 1.6
REQUIRED OPEC CRUDE OUTPUT 29,9 18.5 20.0 22.1 A) INCLUDES CRUDE OIL STOCKPILING REQUIREMENTS, INVENTORY CHANGES AND UNACCOUNTED FOR CRUDE LOSSES, B) INCLUDES U,S, PROCESSING GAIN, NET OIL EXPORTS FROM COMMUNIST COUNTRIES AND NGL PRODUCTION, SOURCE: HISTORICAL DATA, U,S, DOE AND "BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY", PROJECTIONS ARE THOSE OF PIRA,
SLIDE 4
POSSIBLE DISTRIBUTION OF OPEC PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY IN 1985 COMPARED WITH 1980-1981 ACTUALS
(MILLION BARRELS PER DAY)
MIDDLE EAST
SAUDI ARABIA KUWAIT NEUTRAL ZONE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
QATAR
IRAQ IRAN AFRICA LIBYA ALGERIA NIGERIA GABON
OTHER
VENEZUELA INDONESIA
ECUADOR TOTAL CRUDE
NGL PRODUCTION ACTUAL 1980
9.7 1,4 0.5 1.7 0.5 2.6 1.5
17,9
1,8 0.9 2.1 0,2 5.0
2,2 1,6
0,2 4,0
26,8
0,8
27,6 ACTUAL 1981
9,6
0,9
0,4 1.5
0.4
0,9 1,3
15.1
1.1
0,8
1.4
0,2 3,5 2,1 1,6 0,2 3.9
22,5
1,0
23,5 1982
6,3
0.7
0,3 1,2 0,3 0,9 2,0
11,7
1,1 0,7 1,3 0.2 3.3 1.9 1,3 0.2 3,4
18.4
0,9
19,4 1985
4,9 1,0 0,2 1,3 0,3
12,9
1,3 0,7 1,5 0.2 3,7 1,8 1,4 0.2 3,4
20,0
1.4
23.7
SLIDE 5 OPEC SHARE OF WORLD CRUDE
OIL DEMAND 1982
1 9 8 1 1980 1979
OPEC PRODUCTION
. 19.4
23.5
27.3 31,4
% DEMAND
42,7 50.0 55.2 60.4 OPEC CRUDE OIL PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY
TOTAL
ALGERIA ECUADOR GABON INDONESIA IRAN IRAQ KUWAIT LIBYA
N.Z,
NIGERIA QATAR SAUDI ARABIA
U.A.E, VENEZUELA
*N.7. INCLUDED
i
MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE
34,740 900
225 150
1 , 6 5
5,500 3,500 2 , 5 2,100 600
2 , 2
600
1 , 2,415 2,400
IN SAUDI ARABIA
AVAILABLE
23,670 900
225 150
1 , 6 5 3,200 900 1 , 2 5 1 , 7 5 600 2 , 2
600
7 ,
1,245
2,200 & KUWAIT
CURRENT CEILING
17,500 725 200 150 1 , 3 2 , 4
1,200
1 , 5
1,100
«
1,300
300
5 , 1 , 1
1,675
SLIDE 6 GROWTH IN U.S. ENERGY DEMAND BY END-USE SECTOR
SECTOR RESIDENTIAL/
COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORTATION NET ENERGY ELECTRICITY REAL GNP ENERGY/GNP RATIOS
NET/GNP
PRIMARY/GNP (PERCENT
1965/1973 /
3,6 3,0
ION
5,1 Y
3,8
7,5
:NERGY
4,3 3,9 PER YEAR GROWTH)
1973/1978
0,4
2,0 0,3 3.2 0,8 2,5
1978/1980 1
2.3
1,5 1,0
1,1
0.1 0.3 1,0
1,3 0,3 2,3 0,3 1,3
0.6 2.3 1,0 2,8 0,2 0,2
0.4
SLIDE 7
PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER DOLLAR OF GNP 1973-1990
__
ENERGY CONSUMPTION GNP ENER6Y/6NP
(QUADRILLION BTU's) (BILLION 1972 $'s) (000 BTU's PER $) 1973 "
74,6
1,254 59.4
1979 78.9
1,479
53,2 1981 74,0
1,503
49,2 1985 74.8
1,645
45,5 1990 78,6 1,887 41,7
SLIDE 8
OIL GAS COAL NUCLEAR OTHER
U.S. ENERGY DEMAND
(MILLION B/D OIL EQUIVALENT)
1973 1979 1981 1985
1990
17,3 18,5 16,1 15,9 15,6 11,2 10,3
6,6 0,5 1,5 7.5 1,3 9,8 8,0 8,9 9,0 8,6 9,8 2,2 3,0 1,6 1,6 1,8 1,9
37,1 39.2 36,9
37.4
39,3
SLIDE 9 U.S. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS DEMAND. 1978-1990
OTHER TOTAL
(Mi
OLINE
E FUEL OIL FUEL OIL FUELS LLION BARRELS DAILY) 1978 7,41 3,44
3,02 1,10 3,88 1980 6,58
2,86 2,49
1,10 3,98 1981
6,59
2,83
2,09 1,04 3,52 1985 6,17 2,97 1,97 1,08 3,74 1990 5,49 3,17 1,80 1,14 4.04 18,85
17,01 16,06 15,93 15,64
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
( % PER YEAR) MOTOR GASOLINE DISTILLATES RESIDUAL FUEL OIL
AVIATION FUELS OTHER
TOTAL
1965/1973 1973/1978 1978/1980 1981/1985 1985/1990
4,5 4,8 7,6 7,4 4,9
2,1
2,2
1,4
1,5
1.2
1.1
1,4
1,3
1,1
1.6
5,2
1,7
NOTE: DATA AFTER 1980 ARE NOT DIRECTLY COMPARABLE WITH EARLIER DATA. ALSO, SUMS OF THE PARTS MAY NOT EQUAL TOTAL DUE TO ROUNDING.
SOURCE: U.S. DOE; PROJECTIONS ARE THOSE OF PIRA,
SLIDE 10
MOTOR GASOLINE DEMAND PARAMETERS. 1981-1990 1982 1985
1990
PASSENGER CARS IN USEA) (MM)
108
'
112 118
MILES DRIVE (Bit,)
1,115 1,200 1,325
PASSENGER CAR FUEL EFFICIENCY^ (MPG) 15,6
18,2 23,0
PASSENGER CAR FUEL USE (MMB/D)
4.64 4.33
3.77
OF WHICH: MOTOR GASOLINE
4,57 4,22 3,55
DIESEL FUEL
0,07 0,11 0.22
TOTAL MOTOR GASOLINE USE (MMB/D) PASSENGER CARS
4,57 . 4,22 3,55
OTHER VEHICLES
1.97 1.91 1.84
6,54 6,13 5.39
A) INCLUDES 800,000 DIESEL CARS IN USE IN 1981, 3 MILLION IN
1985, AND 7 MILLION IN 1990,
B) ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST TENTH OF A PERCENTAGE POINT, SOURCE: PIRA
SLIDE 11 PIRA
DISTILLATE FUEL OIL CONSUMPTION BY END-USE
- SECTOR. 1978. 1981 AND PROJECTIONS TO 1990
(THOUSAND BARRELS PER
DAY) 1978 1981 1985 1990
RESIDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL
1 , 4 6 1
756 712 633
INDUSTRIAL(I)
542 655 653 645
ELECTRIC UTILITY
200 50 70 92
TRANSPORTATION^)
1.229 1,368 1,535 1,800
TOTAL
3,432 2,829 2,970 3,170
(1) INCLUDES REFINERY FUEL, OFF-HIGHWAY DIESEL, OIL COMPANY AND MISCELLANEOUS CONSUMPTION OF DISTILLATE OIL, EXCLUDES PETROCHEMICAL FEEDSTOCK CONSUMPTION OF GAS
OIL,
(2) INCLUDES MILITARY, VESSEL BUNKERING, RAILROAD AND ON-HIGHWAY DIESEL CONSUMPTION, DISTILLATE DEMAND BY PAD REGION (THOUSAND BARRELS PER
DAY)
PAD
I II III
IV-V
TOTAL
3,432 2,829
2,970
3,170
1978 1 , 3 8 9 1 , 9 2 475 477 1981 1,059 805 508 457 1985 1 , 6 2 804 673 531 1990 1 , 4 4 845 677 604
SLIDE 12
RESIDUAL FUEL OIL CONSUMPTION BY END-USE AND PROJECTIONS TO 1990
(THOUSAND BARRELS PER DAY)
1978
1981
1985
1990
INDUSTRIAL
622 476 580 520
ELECTRIC UTILITY OTHER
TOTAL
1,461
892 657 621 3,023 2,088 1,972 1,805
SLIDE 13 TOTAL OECD ENERGY AND OIL INTENSITIES 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
TE/GDP
100,0 99,
4
95,7 97,3 95,6
94,8
93,8 90,0 86,8
84.4
ANNUAL
% CHANGE
0,6
OIL/GDP
100,00
96,9 93,5 95,5 94,2 93,2 89,8 82.0 75,3 71,5 ANNUAL
% CHANGE
2,2
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA),
SLIDE 14
U.S. REFINER ACQUISITION COST OF CRUDE OIL $/BBL 1ST Q 2ND Q 3RD Q 4TH Q
1981 36,54 35.91 34.42 34.24
1982
33.05 31.20 31.53 31.78
1983
29.61
