The Role of Fundamentals in Future The Role of Fundamentals in Future Directions for the Chemical Industries Directions for the Chemical Industries Kurt VandenBussche Kurt VandenBussche UOP LLC UOP LLC CREL 04 meeting CREL 04 meeting
Outline Outline � Future Directions Future Directions � � Fundamentals Fundamentals � � Conclusions Conclusions � 2
Outline Outline � Future Directions Future Directions � – The processing industries today The processing industries today – – Trends Trends – • Cost Cost • • Environment Environment • • Feedstock • Feedstock � Fundamentals Fundamentals � � Conclusions Conclusions � 3
Past Predictions Past Predictions “ This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously 1876 considered as a means of communication” Western Union Memo 1895 “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible” Lord Kelvin, President Royal Society 1920 “The wireless music box (radio) has no imaginable commercial value” David Sarnoffs Associates in response to his urgings for investments in the radio 1943 “I think there’s a world market for maybe five computers” Thomas Watson, Chairman IBM 1949 “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons” Popular Mechanics forecasting the relentless march of science. 1977 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” Ken Olson, President, Chairman and Founder of Digital Equipment 4
The refining and petrochemical The refining and petrochemical industries today industries today � Evolution characterized by step Evolution characterized by step- -changes changes � – 1920 1920 Thermal cracking – Thermal cracking – 1930 1930 Alkylation – Alkylation – 1950 1950 Catalytic Reforming – Catalytic Reforming – 1970 1970 PX/MX/OX separations – PX/MX/OX separations – 1990 1990 Solid Acids for alkylation alkylation – Solid Acids for – 2000 2000 Bio based bulk chemicals – Bio based bulk chemicals � As a rule, technology in the refining and As a rule, technology in the refining and � petrochemical industries is mature, petrochemical industries is mature, growing with GDP growing with GDP 5
The Importance of Continuous Improvement The Importance of Continuous Improvement Theoretical Octane Barrels 6,200 6,200 New Reactor New Reactor Octane Barrels / 100 Barrels Feed Octane Barrels / 100 Barrels Feed Concepts Concepts 6,000 6,000 Improved Reaction Improved Reaction Systems Systems 5,800 5,800 Octane Catalysts Octane Catalysts 5,600 5,600 Extended Riser Extended Riser 5,400 5,400 Zeolite Catalysts Zeolite Catalysts 5,200 5,200 Amorphous Amorphous Catalysts Catalysts 5,000 5,000 Octane Barrel Capacity of FCC Octane Barrel Capacity of FCC 4,800 4,800 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1996 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1996 6
Trends in the Processing Industries Energy & Environmental Energy & Environmental Feedstocks Constraints Feedstocks Constraints Sustainability Product Product Profitability Profitability Quality Quality 7
Process Intensification Process Intensification � Coined in the 70’s by ICI by Colin Coined in the 70’s by ICI by Colin Ramshaw Ramshaw � � A series of tools, aimed at A series of tools, aimed at � – reducing the capital cost of production for bulk chemicals reducing the capital cost of production for bulk chemicals – – at constant or lower variable cost of production. at constant or lower variable cost of production. – � Capex Capex scales roughly with footprint or number of unit scales roughly with footprint or number of unit � operations operations � Achieved by Achieved by � – Combining syntheses, multiple products Combining syntheses, multiple products – – combining unit operations combining unit operations – – removing ‘limitations’ (intensifying) removing ‘limitations’ (intensifying) – • Heat transfer • Heat transfer • Mass transfer Mass transfer • • Kinetics Kinetics • • Momentum/Pressure drop Momentum/Pressure drop • • Gravity… • Gravity… 8
PI Techniques PI Techniques Increasing Commercial Acceptance � Just Just- -in in- -time manufacture time manufacture – – lower inventories lower inventories � � In In- -line mixers line mixers – – lower inventories lower inventories � � Structured column Structured column packings packings – – less hold less hold- -up up � � Plate heat exchangers Plate heat exchangers – – lower lower ∆ ∆ T, less volume T, less volume � � Monolith catalysts Monolith catalysts – – lower lower ∆ ∆ T, better mass tfr T, better mass tfr � � Micro Micro- -channel reactors channel reactors – – better mass tfr better mass tfr � � HiGee HiGee fractionation fractionation – – better mass tfr better mass tfr � 9
Process Intensification Potential Propane Dehydrogenation Propane Dehydrogenation 60 IDEAL 60 PT CLUSTERS LESS 36 36 ATTEN- UATION Relative Intensity CRUSHED 22 22 CATALYST 18 18 ISO- THERMAL NO 3 3 HYDRAULIC CURRENT LIMITATION Process Geometry 10
PI trends in reactor technology PI trends in reactor technology Fixed Bed axial Flow; Ebuliating Mega Scale Direction of Reactor Bed hours Reaction Kinetics Time Constant Cyclic Fixed Circulating Bed axial Flow Liquid Riser minutes Development seconds Fixed-Fluid Bed Fixed Bed radial Flow Moving Bed Radial Flow Semi-Regen; Platforming, Pacol FCC m- seconds Seconds Minutes Hours Days Months Years Catalyst Deactivation Time Constant 11
Trends in the Processing Industries Energy & Environmental Energy & Environmental Feedstocks Constraints Feedstocks Constraints Sustainability Product Product Profitability Profitability Quality Quality 12
Replacing HF Alkylation Alkylation Replacing HF � Waste generated for Waste generated for world scale world scale alkylate alkylate plant: plant: � Material Amount, MM lbs/yr Cost, MM$/yr Alumina 9.8 5.9 KOH 3.9 2.0 Lime 5.9 1.9 HF Acid 33.2 23.4 Makeup TOTAL 52.8 33.2 � New solid acid catalyst, new reactor – Inherent safety, Lower waste – Lower capital 13
Trends in the Processing Industries Energy & Environmental Energy & Environmental Feedstocks Constraints Feedstocks Constraints Sustainability Product Product Profitability Profitability Quality Quality 14
Availability of Oil ? Availability of Oil ? Meadows, 1992, p. 133 WRI, 1996 Oil Oil Natural Resources Natural Resources Food Food n n o o i i t t a a l l u u p p o o P P n n o o i i t t u u l l l l o o P P 1950 2030 1900 1900 1950 1997 1997 2030 2100 2100 15
Evolution of Price of Brent Crude Oil 16
Evolution of Quality of Processed Crude Oil 17
Natural Gas as a Feedstock Indirect Conversion Direct Conversion & Power Fuels Fischer-Tropsch Fischer-Tropsch Combustion Combustion MeOH + MTG MeOH + MTG Cracking Cracking Hydrogen Steam Reform Aromatization Aromatization / WGS CH 4 Oxyhalogenation Chemicals MeOH Synthesis Coupling Direct POX MeOH + MTO Demonstrated or Existing To Be Developed / Demonstrated 18
Hydrogen as a fuel ? Hydrogen as a fuel ? Global Consumption /Production Global Consumption /Production 3500 3500 Comparable Product Values Comparable Product Values 100 100 1000 1000 90 90 80 80 800 800 70 70 MM MT pa MM MT pa Price, $/MT Price, $/MT 60 60 600 600 50 50 40 40 400 400 30 30 20 20 200 200 10 10 0 0 0 0 Oil Oil Ethylene Ethylene Hydrogen Hydrogen Benzene Benzene Methanol Methanol Fuel Hydrogen Petrochemicals Fuel Hydrogen Petrochemicals Hydrogen currently looks like a Hydrogen currently looks like a petrochemical in scale and value petrochemical in scale and value 19 UOP 4221-11
Hydrogen as a fuel in 2025 entails : Hydrogen as a fuel in 2025 entails : Assume 10% World Energy Demand (based on 2025) Assume 10% World Energy Demand (based on 2025) Equivalent to 68 EJ (exa exa joules joules - -10 10 18 18 ) ) Equivalent to 68 EJ ( 6x10 12 Nm 3 per year H 2 Quantity 7000 @ 100,000 Nm 3 New Plants per hour each Asset $1-3 trillion (10 12 ) Investment* * Includes H2 delivery assets 20 UOP 4221-12
Evolution of Hydrogen Roadmap Evolution of Hydrogen Roadmap Time Time 10 - - 20 years 20 years 5 years 10 >20 years 5 years >20 years Short Term Medium Term Long Term Fuel H 2 H Fuel 2 Quality Primary Fuel Enhancement Function Function Improvement Central Central Where? Where? Distributed Distributed Fossil Source? Source? Renewables Renewables 21 UOP 4221-46
A Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) A Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) Fuel Cell is a Reactive Membrane Process Fuel Cell is a Reactive Membrane Process Microdiffusion Catalyst Layer Hydrogen Air (Oxygen) Solid Polymer Anode Electrolyte (e.g., Nafion) Graphite Electrode Current Collector Cathode Cathode Reaction Anode Reaction 1/2 O 2 + 2H + + 2e - � H 2 O H 2 � 2H + + 2e - Cathode Spent Fuel 2e - Exhaust (Depleted Air) (Depleted Load Hydrogen) 22
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