Green Plains Partners LP 2016 MLPA Investor Conference June 2, 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Green Plains Partners LP 2016 MLPA Investor Conference June 2, 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Green Plains Partners LP 2016 MLPA Investor Conference June 2, 2016 Todd Becker President & Chief Executive Officer Green Plains Partners LP | NASDAQ: GPP | www.greenplainspartners.com Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes
Todd Becker
President & Chief Executive Officer
Green Plains Partners LP | NASDAQ: GPP | www.greenplainspartners.com
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This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Statements that do not relate strictly to historical
- r current facts are forward-looking. These statements contain words such as “possible,” “if,” “will” and “expect” and involve risks and uncertainties
including, among others, that Green Plains Partners’ business plans may change as circumstances warrant because of general market conditions or
- ther factors. Such statements are based on current expectations, forecasts and projections, including but not limited to, anticipated financial and
- perating results, plans, objectives, expectations and intentions that are not historical in nature.
Investors should keep in mind the risk factors and other cautionary statements in Green Plains Partners’ SEC filings when considering these forward- looking statements. Forward-looking statements do not guarantee future performance or results nor are they necessarily accurate indicators that such performance or results will be achieved. Green Plains Partners undertakes no obligation, nor does it intend, to update these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances occurring after this presentation. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward- looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation.
Forward-Looking Statements
Partnership Overview
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Green Plains Partners LP
- Formed in 2015 by Green Plains Inc. to provide fuel storage and transportation services by owning,
- perating, developing and acquiring ethanol and fuel storage tanks, terminals, transportation assets and
- ther related assets and businesses
- Primary vehicle to expand downstream logistics activities to support Green Plains’ growing ethanol
marketing and distribution business
- Vertical integration enables Green Plains to better capture the economic value of these operations within
the ethanol value chain and continue to develop downstream logistic assets
Grain Procurement & Storage Production Storage, Marketing, Transportation, & Logistics Terminal Services Distribution Green Plains Partners’ Initial Assets Downstream Upstream
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RAIL SYSTEMS NORFOLK SOUTHERN BNSF UNION PACIFIC CANADIAN NATIONAL
FAIRMONT SUPERIOR LAKOTA ATKINSON ORD WOOD RIVER CENTRAL CITY SHENANDOAH OMAHA OBION RIGA BLUFFTON OKLAHOMA CITY LITTLE ROCK BOSSIER CITY COLLINS BIRMINGHAM NASHVILLE LOUISVILLE OTTER TAIL
GPP’s ASSETS ETHANOL STORAGE FACILITIES BIOFUELS UNIT TRAIN TERMINAL BIOFUELS TERMINALING FACILITIES GREEN PLAINS’ ASSETS CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS ETHANOL PRODUCTION FACILITIES
HEREFORD HOPEWELL
Partnership Assets
- Ethanol Storage Facilities
30 ethanol storage facilities located at or near Green Plains’ 14 ethanol production plants with production capacity of 1.2 bgy
- Fuel Terminal Facilities
Fuel terminal facilities at eight locations in seven south- central U.S. states.
- Transportation Assets
~2,550 railcars and trucking capabilities
Assets with low operating capital requirements and useful life of 20+ years
Strategically located near major rail lines in nine U.S. states enabling transportation to diverse geographic areas
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Our Parent Green Plains Inc.
$68 $130 $149 $116 $157 $351 $127
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 All Others 8.8
- Formed in 2004 as an ethanol producer with strategically located, operationally efficient production assets
- Growth through acquisition of vertically integrated commodity-processing businesses
- Third largest consolidated owner of ethanol production facilities in the world
- 1,000 employees, $1.9 billion in assets and enterprise value of $1.4 billion
- Footprint provides broad understanding of crop and livestock production, export markets, transportation
dynamics and ethanol economics
EBITDA (in millions) US Ethanol Production Capacity (bgy)(1)
1) Renewable Fuels Association Dec 2015 2) POET does not own 100% of all production capacity
ADM 1.8 POET 1.7(2) Flint Hills 0.8 Valero 1.3 Green Plains 1.2 Top five producers account for 43% of overall production capacity
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Operating Segments
Green Plains Inc.
Agribusiness Ethanol Production Marketing & Distribution Partnership Upstream Downstream
- 56 mmbu of grain storage capacity
- 70,000-head capacity cattle feedlot with 2.8 mmbu of feed storage
- 14 dry-mill ethanol plants in 8 states, all with export spec capabilities
- Produces 1.2 bgy of ethanol, 3.5 mm tons of livestock feed, 275 mm lbs of
industrial corn oil
- Merchant trading of 12 commodities
- 1.3 billion gallons sold in the last twelve months
- Fuel storage and transportation services
Green Plains moves meaningful volumes and positions across the agricultural and energy supply chain
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- Green Plains is a 62.5% owner and general partner of the partnership; public owns remaining 35.5%
- Long-term, fee-based commercial agreements with our parent and third parties generate stable and
predictable cash flows
- Supported by minimum volume or capacity commitments
- Since 2009, Green Plains’ ethanol production has averaged 95.3% of daily average production
capacity
Agreement (mmg) Minimum commitment Rate per gallon Remaining Term Storage and throughput services 986 mmgy $0.0500 9.25 yrs Terminal services (Birmingham) 33.2 mmg $0.0355 1.75 yrs Railcar capacity (daily
- avg. gallons mm)
76.9 mmg $0.0358 5.25 yrs
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110%
- 25
50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Production Production Capacity % of Capacity
Stable, Fee-Based Cash Flows
Our Relationship with Green Plains Inc.
Commercial Agreements with Green Plains Trade(1) Green Plains Production & Utilization History
(mmgy) (% of capacity)
1) Quarterly report on Form 10-Q as of 3.31.16
Page 10 2016 MLPA Investor Conference | 6.02.16 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1-2016 Production Capacity (mmgy) 740 740 1,020 1,020 1,055 1,215 EBITDA (1) $148.6 $115.5 $156.6 $350.7 $127.8 $102.3 Interest Expense(1) $36.6 $37.5 $33.4 $39.9 $40.4 $42.0 Gross Debt $636.8 $663.3 $735.2 $672.8 $675.0 $776.7 Working Capital Financing $69.6 $144.4 $171.5 $209.9 $226.9 $277.4 Term Debt $567.2 $518.9 $563.7 $462.9 $448.1 $499.3 Cash & Cash Equivalents $194.6 $280.1 $299.0 $455.3 $411.9 $400.7 Net Term Debt $372.6 $238.8 $264.7 $7.6 $36.2 $98.6 Stockholder's Equity $505.4 $490.5 $545.4 $797.4 $797.8 $769.1 Term Debt / Total Capitalization 52.9% 51.4% 50.8% 36.7% 36.0% 39.4% Term Debt / EBITDA 3.8x 4.5x 3.6x 1.3x 3.5x 4.9x EBITDA / Interest Expense 4.1x 3.1x 4.7x 8.8x 3.2x 2.4x
1) Trailing twelve months for Q1-2016
Liquidity & Capital Structure
Green Plains Inc.
Total Assets: $1,919 million Total Debt: $777 million Assets as of March 31, 2016 Debt as of March 31, 2016
Inventories & A/R 24% Cash 21% Plant Term Debt 40% Property & Equipment 48% Convertible Notes 14% Other 10% Working Cap Revolver 36% Other Assets 7%
(in millions)
Ethanol Industry Overview
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Domestic Ethanol Landscape
12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P
U.S. Demand U.S. Net Exports U.S. Production
- U.S. is the world’s largest producer of ethanol
- 216 ethanol plants in the U.S. capable of producing 15.7 bgy of ethanol
- Domestic ethanol industry produced 14.8 billion gallons in 2015
- 13.9 billion gallons of ethanol were consumed, or 9.9% of domestic gasoline supply
- RFS II mandate of 14.05 bgy in 2015; 14.5 bgy in 2016; 14.8 bgy proposed for 2017
Domestic Supply and Demand (bgy)
Rest of world 6% China 3% EU 5% Brazil 28% United States 58%
Top Global Ethanol Producers (2015)
Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Renewable Fuels Association
United States and Brazil accounted for ~86%
- f world ethanol production in 2015
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15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000
Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks Total Days of Demand
- First quarter production outpaced demand
- Cold weather ideal for ethanol production
- Gasoline demand seasonally low; 3-year
average demand is 5.4% lower in Q1 than Q4
- Days of production demand are dropping from
Feb 2016 record inventory levels
- Implications of increased demand in relatively
tight industry
Domestic Ethanol Supply & Demand
Industry Fundamentals
(thousand barrels) (days)
Source: Energy Information Administration as May 20, 2016
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- Drivers for increased ethanol demand:
- Gasoline demand
- Higher ethanol blends
- Export demand
- Demand for co-products
Margins in the Current Environment
Industry Fundamentals
(thousand barrels) ($ per gallon)
Source: Energy Information Administration as May 20, 2016, company information
- $0.50
- $0.25
$0.00 $0.25 $0.50 $0.75 $1.00 $1.25 $1.50 14,500 16,500 18,500 20,500 22,500 24,500 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16
Ethanol Inventory Weekly AvgCrush Margins
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- U.S. weekly implied gasoline demand is strong going into a seasonally more favorable quarter
- Four-week average gas demand has been 145.9 bgy, up 3.9% from a year ago
- Ethanol blending is up ~3% YoY, approaching 900k+ barrels/day
Domestic Gasoline Demand
Ethanol Industry Drivers
8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5-year range 2015 2016
(million barrels per day)
Source: Bloomberg
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- 2016 National Ethanol Conference participants are
projecting blend volumes will increase
- 65 mmgy in 2016, additional 120 mmgy in 2017
- Major retailers are converting stations to E15; consumers
are choosing cheaper gas
- 33% of total fuel gallons sold at Minnoco (Minnesota)
is E15; targeting 50% of total fuel sales by 2017
- Kum and Go (Midwest) will sell E15 at 110+ stores
in 2016
- Thorntons (Midwest and MidSouth) offering E15 at all
Chicago locations with conversions starting this spring
- Auto makers have explicitly approved the use of E15
in more than 70% of 2016 models sold in the U.S.
Higher Ethanol Blends
Ethanol Industry Drivers
Source: Renewable Fuels Association, 2016 data as of April 2016
U.S. Retail Stations Offering E15 Retailers Selling Higher Blends
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- 200
400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 March 2016 YTD 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Global Ethanol Demand Global Ethanol Supply
Demand surpasses supply in 2017
Basics
- Global production was 25.6 billion gallons in 2015
- Global demand has been growing by 2-3% annually
and projected to surpass supply in 2017
- ~6% of domestic ethanol was exported in 2015
- Domestic exports are anticipated to increase to
between 900 mmg and 1 billion gallons in 2016 Drivers
- Global mandates on the rise and growing
- Argentina raised its blend mandate by 2% to 12%
- Peru looking to expand
- Pemex (Mexico) privatization may accelerate
ethanol blending to replace MTBE
Export Demand is Growing
Ethanol Industry Drivers
Global Ethanol Supply and Demand Forecast (bgy) Domestic Ethanol Exports (thousand gallons)
Source: Renewable Fuels Assoc., Energy Information Administration
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$0.11 $0.12 $0.13 $0.14 $0.15 $0.16 $0.17 $0.18 $0.19 $0.20 $0.21 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16
China 30% Brazil 20% India 5% South Korea 6% Canada 18% Rest of world 21%
Why US Ethanol?
- ~250 mmg of U.S. ethanol exported in Q1-2016
- ~80% went to five countries in Q1-2016
- U.S. ethanol is the most economical oxygenate and
- ctane enhancer in the world
- Equivalent value of sugar produced from corn
is 8 cents per pound based on $3.80 per bushel
- Sugar was 17.5 cents per pound on May 27, 2016
Why Green Plains Ethanol?
- All of our plants are capable of producing export spec
for maximum flexibility
- 26% of our ethanol production was exported
in Q1-2016
Export Demand is Growing
Ethanol Industry Drivers
Ethanol Export Mix: Mar 2016 YTD Price of Sugar per Pound
Source: Energy Information Administration
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- World protein demand is projected to increase
demand for animal feed ~4%
- ~25% U.S. distillers grains exported in 2015
- 2.4 million metric tons of U.S. distillers grains exported
in Q1-2016
- ~70% went to six countries in Q1-2016
Case Study: Argentina Spring Rains
- Three week disruption in world soybean meal market
due to heavy rains in March-April
- Price of soybean meal has increased 32% since
March 31, 2016
- Relative value of distillers grains to corn has moved
from 85% in Jan 2016 to 105% in May
Demand for Co-Products
Ethanol Industry Drivers
260 280 300 320 340 360 380 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16
- 50
100 150 200 250 300 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Soybean Meal DDGs
Price of Soybean Meal (mt) Relative Value of DDGs to SBM
Market disruptions can cause sharp responses in prices
Focused on Growth
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Production Rate Impact on the Bottom Line
Power of the Platform
Parent production capacity of 1.2 bgy Utilization rate Q1-16 90% 95%
Storage and throughput volume per quarter (91 days)
247 mmgy 273 mmgy 288 mmgy
Storage and throughput revenues per quarter(1)
$12.38 mm $13.60 mm $14.4 mm Distribution coverage ratio 1.02x 1.10x 1.15x
- Our parent’s production run rate averaged 87% over the last three quarters versus historical
average of 95.3%
- Anticipated production run rate is ~94% for the rest of 2016 based on the current ethanol margin structure
- Hopewell plant is running close to its operating capacity
1) Calculated using a rate of $0.05 per gallon, based on Q1-16 results for revenues and expenses
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Growth
- Expand downstream logistics
activities
Operational Excellence Ownership & Management
- Operate assets with minimal
downtime and high utilization
- Align interest with unitholders
- Senior management team
experience averages 25 years
Downstream Development
- Provide third-party ethanol
producers downstream distribution services
Organic Growth
- Green Plains expansion
projects
- Minimal growth capex
Accretive Acquisitions
- Pursue acquisitions jointly
and independently
- 5-year ROFO on selected
assets from Green Plains
Interests are Aligned with our Parent
Power of the Platform
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Multiple Avenues for Growth
Power of the Platform
- Production growth by our parent
- Expand existing production capacity; capability to increase 50 mmgy
- Acquire production assets
- Partnership has five-year right of first offer on selected assets
- Downstream distribution services development
- Acquire or build new downstream terminals
- Review opportunities for import/export operations
- In progress: Joint venture with Delek US to build a unit-train terminal in Little Rock, AK
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- Ethanol industry fundamentals are improving since first quarter 2016
- Parent has ample liquidity and is well-positioned for growth
- Partnership structure conducive for growth
- Low maintenance capital and organic growth capital requirements
- Revolving credit facility at Green Plains Partners provides significant liquidity to support
growth of the business
- Maintain conservative target leverage ratios at Green Plains and Green Plains Partners
- Compelling opportunities in the business development pipeline for both companies
Power of the Platform
Green Plains Inc. | NASDAQ: GPRE | www.gpreinc.com Green Plains Partners LP | NASDAQ: GPP | www.greenplainspartners.com
Appendix
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For the three months ended
- Mar. 31, 2016
- Dec. 31, 2015
Storage and throughput services (mmg)(1) 247.0 248.8 Terminal services: Affiliate 28.7 25.4 Non-affiliate 44.2 51.7 72.9 77.1 Railcar capacity billed (daily avg. gallons, in mm)(1)(2) 72.9 63.6
Selected Operating Data
Green Plains Partners LP
(1) Volumetric data for periods before July 1, 2015, is not considered meaningful. (2) Full-year railcar capacity is based on capacity since July 1, 2015, when commercial agreement became effective.
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For the three months ended
- Mar. 31, 2016
- Dec. 31, 2015
Net income $12.2 $12.1 Interest expense 0.3 0.2 Income tax expense 0.2 Depreciation and amortization 1.2 1.4 Transaction costs 0.5 Unit-based compensation expense 0.1 Adjusted EBITDA $13.9 $14.3 Less: Interest paid and payable 0.3 0.1 Income taxes paid or payable 0.2 Maintenance capital expenditures 0.1 0.1 Distributable cash flow(1) $13.3 $14.1 Distribution declared(2) $13.1 $13.1 Coverage ratio 1.02x 1.08x
Adjusted EBITDA and DCF
Green Plains Partners LP
(in millions)
(1) Distributable cash flow for periods before July 1, 2015, is not considered meaningful. (2) Represents distributions declared for the applicable quarter and paid in the subsequent quarter.
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Assets
- Mar. 31, 2016
- Dec. 31, 2015(1)
Current assets $20.0 $33.9 Property and equipment, net 41.4 41.9 Other assets 19.8 20.0 Total assets $81.2 $95.8 Liabilities and Partners’ Capital Current liabilities $11.0 $13.6 Long-term debt 58.9 7.9 Other liabilities 2.7 2.5 Total liabilities $72.6 $24.0 Total partners’ capital 8.6 71.8 Total liabilities and partners’ capital $81.2 $95.8
Condensed Balance Sheet
Green Plains Partners LP
(in millions)
* (1) Recast to include the historical balances of assets acquired in a transfer between entities under common control.
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For the three months ended
- Mar. 31, 2016
- Dec. 31, 2015
Revenues $23.8 $22.7 Operating expenses $11.1 $10.4 Operating income $12.7 $12.3 Other expense ($0.3) ($0.2) Income before taxes $12.4 $12.1 Net income $12.2 $12.1 Earnings per limited partner unit basic and diluted $0.38 $0.37
Consolidated Income Statement
Green Plains Partners LP
(in million gallons, except per unit amounts)
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Green Plains Partners LP (partnership) Throughput gallons (millions) 160 Rate per gallon $0.05 Projected EBITDA (millions) $8.0 throughput gallons X rate per gallon Drop down multiple 8.0x Purchase price of storage assets (millions) $64.0 EBITDA x drop down multiple Green Plains Inc. (sponsor) Acquisition price $98.0 Production gallons (millions) 160 Acquisition price per gallon $0.61 New asset price after drop down (millions) $34.0 acquisition price – partnership purchase price New asset price per gallon $0.21 asset price after drop down / gallons
Drop Down Valuation
Hopewell and Hereford Storage & Transportation Assets
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- 50%
- 40%
- 30%
- 20%
- 10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Ethanol Spread to RBOB
Ethanol Industry Drivers
Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 RBOB $1.62 $1.63 $1.62 $1.60 $1.47 $1.43 Ethanol $1.64 $1.64 $1.62 $1.60 $1.58 $1.55 Ethanol Price vs. RBOB $0.02 $0.01 ($0.00) ($0.00) $0.11 $0.12 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 RBOB $1.41 $1.41 $1.42 $1.44 $1.66 $1.67 Ethanol $1.53 $1.51 $1.51 $1.51 $1.51 $1.51 Ethanol Price vs. RBOB $0.11 $0.10 $0.09 $0.07 ($0.15) ($0.16) Historic Ethanol Discount-Premium to RBOB
Source: CME Group