The Prevalence of Vermonters on the Social Security Disability - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Sep 07, 2023 630 likes •776 views

The Prevalence of Vermonters on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program Joyce Manchester Vermont Legislative Joint Fiscal Office October 2015 The Prevalence Rate Compare number of beneficiaries in an age group and state to the

SLIDE 1

The Prevalence of Vermonters

n the Social Security

Disability Insurance Program

Joyce Manchester Vermont Legislative Joint Fiscal Office October 2015

SLIDE 2

The Prevalence Rate

Compare number of beneficiaries in an age

group and state to the number of state residents in that same age group

Look only at disabled worker beneficiaries

– Receive benefit based on their own work history

Data sources

– Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program, 2013; – U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population, July 2013

SLIDE 3

Findings

In 2013, Vermont ranked #13 among the

states for the share of adults < age 66 on SSDI

Vermont ranked #2 for SSDI prevalence in the

age group under 35 (NH #1, ME #3)

From 2000 to 2013, the share of people in

Vermont on SSDI rose

– almost 4 times as fast as the increase in the national average, under age 35 and ages 35-44 – almost twice as fast as the increase in the national average, ages 45-54

SLIDE 4

2.12%

4.12% 6.79% 10.72%

2.05% 5.25% 8.59% 13.16% 2.31% 4.19% 6.65% 10.69% 0.90% 2.50% 5.49% 11.28% Under 35 35-44 45-54 55-65

Figure 1. SSDI Prevalence as Share of Resident Population, 2013

VT ME NH US

Sources: Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program, 2013; Annual Estimates of the Resident Population, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013, U.S. Census Bureau. 4

SLIDE 5

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

NH VT ME AR AL MA RI KY WV WI MI MO OH PA NM MN LA ID IA OK MT MS IN KS SD TN WY CT NE US OR WA MD NC SC DE FL VA IL NY TX ND GA NJ AZ UT CO AK NV DC CA HI

Appendix Figure 2. SSDI Prevalence Under Age 35, 2013

SLIDE 6

0.99% 1.58% 2.72% 2.10% 0.49% 1.74% 2.88% 2.34% 1.27% 1.86% 2.86% 2.94% 0.23% 0.43% 1.41% 2.79% Under 35 35-44 45-54 55-65

Figure 2. Increase in SSDI Prevalence in ppts, 2000-2013

VT ME NH US Sources: Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program, 2000, 2013; Annual Estimates of the Resident Population, April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2010 and April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013, U.S. Census Bureau. 6

SLIDE 7

0.76%

28.24%

88.68% 16.19% 0.13%

25.70%

31.52% 11.01% 0.91%

26.75%

124.77% 31.90% 11.19%

10.44%

48.25% 7.76%

Under 35 35-44

Figure 3. Changes in Population and SSDI Prevalence, 2000 - 2013

VT Pop. VT SSDI ME Pop. ME SSDI NH Pop. NH SSDI US Pop. US SSDI Sources: Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program, 2000, 2013; Annual Estimates of the Resident Population, April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2010 and April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013, U.S. Census Bureau. 7

SLIDE 8

Why might Vermont have such high and rapidly rising rates?

Reasons are unclear; here are four possibilities

– Pro-active efforts by state agencies to enroll young people in the SSDI program – Out-migration of able-bodied young people, likely related to job opportunities – Rising opiate addiction – Relatively high rates of health insurance

SLIDE 9

SLIDE 10

3185 1196 329 350 637 3683 1437 306 346 821 3408 1510 263 304 802 1900 738 184 275 211 Total Mood disorders Organic mental disorders Schizophrenic and other psychotic disorders Other

Figure 6. SSDI Diagnosis As Mental Disorder (Total), and by Type of Opiate-Related Disorders, per 100,000, 2013

VT (per 100,000) ME (per 100,000) NH (per 100,000) US (per 100,000) Sources: Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program, 2013; Annual Estimates of the Resident Population, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013, U.S. Census Bureau. 10

SLIDE 11

NOT caused by worse health

r worse economic performance
2013 American Community Survey reports

proportion of working-age adults with self- reported disabilities

– Maine 9th – Vermont 21st – New Hampshire 36th

Real per capita growth in GDP, 2000-2013

– Only Maine has lower growth than the U.S. average (see Figure 5)

SLIDE 12

0.7 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.3 U.S. N.E. ME NH VT

Figure 5. Per Capita Average Annual Real GDP Growth, 2000 to 2013

U.S. N.E. ME NH VT Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

SLIDE 13

Findings Imply Both Positive and Negative Aspects

On the positive side,

– SSDI pays more than SSI – SSDI provides better health benefits than SSI – SSDI saves state dollars

On the negative side,

– Loss of productivity in the workforce – State potentially loses tax dollars, short- and long-term – Risks in weak funding of SSDI trust fund and Medicare trust fund

SSDI may be the right path for some, but perhaps not