SLIDE 1
1!
The Impact of Stringent Fuel and Vehicle Standards on Premature - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Impact of Stringent Fuel and Vehicle Standards on Premature - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Impact of Stringent Fuel and Vehicle Standards on Premature Mortality and Emissions ! Cristiano Faanha, Sarah Chambliss, Josh Miller, Ray Minjares, Kate Blumberg ! ICCT Roadmap Webinar Series ! December 4 th , 2013 ! Webinar Structure ! !
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
2!
Global Transportation Roadmap Series!
www.theicct.org communications@theicct.org BEIJING | BERLIN | BRUSSELS | SAN FRANCISCO | WASHINGTON THE IMPACT OF STRINGENT FUEL AND VEHICLE STANDARDS ON PREMATURE MORTALITY AND EMISSIONS ICCT’S GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION HEALTH AND CLIMATE ROADMAP SERIES AUTHORS: Sarah Chambliss, Josh Miller, Cristiano Façanha, Ray Minjares, Kate Blumberg SLIDE 4
3!
Most advanced controls can reduce emissions by over 99%!
SLIDE 5
4!
There is wide discrepancy regarding the stringency
- f vehicle emission standards worldwide!
2 / II 3 / III 4 / IV 5 / V 6 / VI 1 / I
Grey: no standards/ import standards or unknown.!
Standards shown for LDVs!
SLIDE 6
5!
A global focus on health impacts from transportation is critical to provide policy insights!
LATIN AMERICA CHINA AND INDIA NON-EU EUROPE AND RUSSIA AFRICA MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC-40 BEST PRACTICE AUSTRALIA, CANADA, EU-28 JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, US
SLIDE 7
6!
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Middle East Africa Asia-Pacific-40 Non-EU Europe Russia Latin America-31 Mexico Brazil India (nat’l) India (early adopters) China China- Metro buses South Korea Australia Japan U.S. Canada EU-28 Euro IV Euro V Euro VI Next-Generation Euro III Accelerated Standards Pre-Euro Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6 Baseline Standards
The study relies on a well-informed policy roadmap towards cleaner vehicles and fuels!
HDV Standards Timeline!
SLIDE 8
110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Early deaths Best Practice China & India Non-EU Europe, Russia, & Latin America Other Countries
2000 2005 2010 2 01 5 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2 01 5 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2 01 5 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2 01 5 2020 2025 2030
- 7%
- 79%
- 74%
- 80%
Baseline Accelerated (%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030
7!
Latest vehicle controls can reduce emissions and premature mortality worldwide by 75% !!
Globally new standards could save 210,000 early deaths in 2030 and 25 million
- f years of life through
2030. At a global level, health impacts from urban vehicle particle emissions will increase 50% by 2030 unless new vehicle and fuel standards are adopted.
SLIDE 9
8!
Baseline Accelerated Total non-CO2 GHG emissions (MtCO2e) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2025 2020 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2025 2020 2030
Best Practice China & India Latin America Non-EU Europe & Russia Other Countries
And they can cut short-lived climate pollutants by over 80%!
80%
SLIDE 10
9!
HEALTH EFFECTS
Emission Factors Urban Intake Fractions Concentration- Response Function Early Deaths and Years of Life Lost Tons of PM Emitted Urban Air Quality Vehicle Activity
SOURCE EMISSIONS CONCENTRATION
! Source: vehicle-km traveled by road vehicles in urban areas!
! Historical data from government agencies in major markets, IEA in other countries! ! Projected based on changes in population and PPP-GDP!
! Emission factors: grams per vehicle-km!
! Consider vehicle fleet composition, fuel type, emission control technology! ! Influenced by emission standards and diesel sulfur content!
! Emissions: metric tons, product of activity and emission factors!
Framework for evaluating the health impacts of transportation emissions!
SLIDE 11
! Reasons for using emission factors!
! Reflect policy effects on real-world emissions! ! Lifetime average emission factors include deterioration! ! Depend on speed, temperature, road grade, vehicle types!
! Reasons for applying COPERT factors across regions!
! Most countries follow European classification scheme for vehicle standards (Euro 1/I through Euro 6/VI)! ! Developed by strong research/academic team! ! Well-supported, up-to-date standards and technologies! ! Comprehensive, public documentation! ! Emission factors broadly in line with other models!
Emission factors!
SLIDE 12
11!
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 Uncontrolled Euro 1/I Euro 2/II Euro 3/III Euro 4/IV Euro 5/V Euro 6/VI Average lifetime emission factor (grams PM2.5 /km) Diesel: 2,000 ppm 500 ppm 350 ppm 50 ppm 10 ppm
- 99%
- 99%
HHDT LDV Fuel Sulfur Level
- 25%
- 38%
- 22%
- 77%
- 90%
- 68%
- 20%
- 33%
- 23%
- 95%
Vehicle emission limits and ultra-low sulfur diesel are key drivers of PM emission reduction!
DPF! DPF!
SLIDE 13
12!
Vehicle turnover translates standards into fleetwide emission reductions!
! Figure: HDV activity and NOx emissions by control level in China! ! Baseline: China IV yields initial reductions,
- utpaced by VKT
growth! ! Accelerated: China V and VI result in sustained NOx reductions!
Vehicle-km traveled (billion) Baseline Accelerated NOX (metric kiloton) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Uncontrolled Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Euro VI
SLIDE 14
13!
Baseline Accelerated
2010 2015 2025 2020 2030 2010 2015 2025 2020 2030
0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 NOX (g/km) PM (g/km) Best Practice China & India Latin America Non-EU Europe & Russia Other Countries
Accelerated standards drive convergence in average emissions per vehicle-km!
Bars = variation in emissions (g/km)!
SLIDE 15
14!
Emissions projections!
! Figure: (top row) vehicle-km, (below) PM, NOx, HC emissions! ! Baseline: sustained decreases in Best Practice regions! ! Accelerated policies reverse emission trends in many regions (2020-2030)! ! By 2030, 80% reduction in PM compared to baseline in regions yet to adopt best practices!
- 4%
- 83%
- 76%
- 76%
- 83%
- 40%
- 82%
- 71%
- 55%
- 71%
- 47%
- 66%
- 78%
- 70%
- 54%
Baseline Accelerated (%) Data labels indicate annualized growth in vehicle activity
1.3% 7.4% 3.4% 3.5% 4.3%
(%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030
2010 2000 2005 2015 2025 2020 2030 2010 2000 2005 2015 2025 2020 2030 2010 2000 2005 2015 2025 2020 2030 2010 2000 2005 2015 2025 2020 2030 2010 2000 2005 2015 2025 2020 2030
Best Practice China & India Latin America Non-EU Europe & Russia Other Countries 10,000 5,000 Vehicle-km traveled (billion) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 300 200 100 10,000 5,000 PM (metric kiloton) NOX (metric kiloton) HC (metric kiloton)
Health effects quantified
SLIDE 16
15!
HEALTH EFFECTS
Emission Factors Urban Intake Fractions Chemical Transport Model Concentration- Response Function Health Impacts Gridded Emissions Inventory Urban Air Quality Gridded Air Quality Vehicle Activity
SOURCE EMISSIONS CONCENTRATION
Tons of PM Emitted Disaggregation Aggregate
Urban concentration with intake fractions!
SLIDE 17
16!
! Intake fraction is the ratio of the mass of pollutant inhaled to mass emitted! ! ! ! ! ! ! Intake fraction varies by source and setting!
! Size of exposed population! ! Proximity of emissions to population! ! Environmental persistence of pollutant!
Intake fraction!
SLIDE 18
17!
Variation in intake fraction worldwide (Apte 2012)!
SLIDE 19
18!
Calculating concentration from intake fraction!
Breathing rate constant (Q) !
SLIDE 20
19!
! The “relative risk” predicts how much more often deaths will occur at higher concentrations! ! The size of the urban population and the baseline disease rate both influence the final estimate of total early deaths! ! RRs are estimated for 3 disease categories that lead to premature mortality!
! Lung cancer, adults over 30! ! Cardiopulmonary disease, adults over 30! ! Acute respiratory infection (ARI), children under 5!
Estimating impacts from exposure!
SLIDE 21
20!
1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 Relative Risk Ambient PM2.5 (μg/m3) ∆C = 10 μg/m3 ∆RR = 0.038 ∆C = 10 μg/m3 ∆RR = 0.110
! Two forms of concentration-response functions, linear and log-linear (Ostro et al. 2005)! ! The background concentration can influence the increase in relative risk! ! We take the average of the change in risk near the counterfactual and at the background concentration!
Estimating impacts: nuances of the concentration- response function!
SLIDE 22
21!
! Best Practice countries show decreased years of life lost under baseline conditions! ! Urbanization and rising emissions cause increased baseline health impacts in China & India and Other Countries! ! Accelerated policies reduce impacts across regions!
Premature mortality from on-road urban PM2.5 emissions!
110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Early deaths Best Practice China & India Non-EU Europe, Russia, & Latin America Other Countries
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
- 7%
- 79%
- 74%
- 80%
Baseline Accelerated (%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030
SLIDE 23
22!
Comparing health impacts !
! Rates control for population size and age! ! Accelerated policies bring mortality rates to comparable low levels across regions !
Best Practice China & India Latin America Non-EU Europe & Russia Other Countries 250 200 150 100 50 250 200 150 100 50 Accelerated
Age-adjusted mortality rate
Baseline
Age-adjusted mortality rate 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030
Australia Canada EU-28 Japan South Korea U.S. China India Brazil Latin America-31 Mexico Non-EU Europe Russia Africa Asia-Pacific-40 Middle East
SLIDE 24
23!
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
North America (U.S. + Canada) China India Western Europe (EU-28) Western FSU (Russia+ Non-EU Europe) South & Central Africa (Africa) North Africa/ Middle East Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, Latin America-31) Global
Annual mortalities prevented Range given by Shindell et al. 2011 Results from this analysis
Comparison of benefits estimates between this analysis and Shindell et al. (2011)!
SLIDE 25
24!
Benefits beyond preventing early death!
SLIDE 26
25!
! Very clean vehicle and fuel technologies exist. These technologies are already cost effective, and costs will continue to decline.! ! Despite progress in developed countries, current penetration in developing countries is insufficient to limit the worsening in health impacts.! ! Standards have proved to be an effective policy to bring substantial health and climate co-benefits.! ! The adoption of new standards would cause emission rates around the world to converge at much reduced levels, resulting in a drop in PM2.5 , NOX, and HC emissions.! ! By a conservative estimate, reducing PM2.5 emissions through new standards will prevent over 210,000 early deaths in the year 2030 in urban areas. ! ! The full health benefits of new policies increase when considering nonfatal health impacts, impacts in rural areas, and impacts of ozone.!
Main Messages!
SLIDE 27
26!
ICCT’S Global Transportation Health and Climate Roadmap Series!
Thank you! For more information:!
Global Transportation Energy and Climate Roadmap!
http://www.theicct.org/global-transportation-energy-and-climate-roadmap!
The Impact of Vehicle and Fuel Standards on Premature Mortality and Emissions!
http://www.theicct.org/global-health-roadmap!
Cristiano Façanha cristiano@theicct.org!
Roadmap Model!
http://www.theicct.org/ global-transportation- roadmap-model!