UCS Approach for Strengthening the Renewable Targets in EPAs Clean - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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UCS Approach for Strengthening the Renewable Targets in EPAs Clean Power Plan October 2014 1 Key Takeaways EPAs renewable targets are modest UCS approach improves on EPAs methodology by building off demonstrated success of

SLIDE 1

UCS Approach for Strengthening the Renewable Targets in EPA’s Clean Power Plan

October 2014

SLIDE 2

Key Takeaways

EPA’s renewable targets are modest
UCS approach improves on EPA’s methodology by building
ff demonstrated success of leading states
UCS approach leads to more renewables and CO2

reductions in every region and nearly every state

– ~40% national CO2

reduction below 2005 levels

Defensible and affordable approach for achieving BSER

– Minimal effect on electricity prices & lower natural gas prices

SLIDE 3

Power plants are the largest source of U.S. heat-trapping emissions

40% of CO2 emissions
32% of total GHG

emissions

A major source of

mercury, SO2, NOx, particulates, lead...

SLIDE 4

Impacts of climate change are here… and likely to worsen

SLIDE 5

Improve coal unit heat rate by 6%

NGCC Boiler

Re-dispatch coal to natural gas
Increase average NGCC utilization to 70%
Achieve average regional renewable

growth targets

Avoid retirement of 6% nuclear fleet
Complete new nuclear in construction
Annual incremental electricity savings

rate of 1.5 percent

Best System of Emission Reduction (BSER) Based on 4 Building Blocks

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BASELINE EMISSION RATE =

(fossil emissions)baseline (fossil generation)baseline + (RE + Nuc)baseline (coal + oil/gas + NGCC + other)baseline (coal + oil/gas + NGCC + other)baseline + (RE + Nuc)baseline

emissions (lbs. CO2) generation (MWh)

2030 STATE GOAL = re-dispatched fossil CO2 emissions

baseline fossil generation + clean energy goal + EE goal

emissions (lbs. CO2) generation (MWh)

Adjusted Output-Weighted Average CO2 Emission Rates in Lbs CO2/MWh

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EPA Proposed Approach Regional Renewables RPS Target

21% 15% 20% 10% 25% 16%

7

SLIDE 8

EPA’s National Renewables Targets Are Modest

9% 10% 7% 12% 8% 12% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2020 2030 % of Electricity Sales EIA Business as Usual EPA Proposed Approach EPA Alternative Approach*

*excluding existing hydro

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2030 targets in 7 states below 2013 generation levels

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2030 targets in 17 states below requirements under existing RES laws

Renewable electricity standard EPA target below RES requirement

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Demonstrated Renewables Growth Approach

Calculated national benchmark renewables growth rate of 1%
f electricity sales/year from 2009-2013
States below benchmark ramp-up to 1% by 2020
States at or above benchmark grow at their 5-year average

growth rate up to a maximum rate 1.5%

In each year, states achieve greater of growth rate approach or

required RPS target

Renewables capped at 40% of electricity sales per state
Added 2013 renewable generation from EIA, distributed PV,

and wind & utility solar under construction from 2014-2016

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UCS vs. EPA National Renewables Targets

9% 10% 7% 12% 14% 23% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2020 2030 % of Electricity Sales EIA Business as Usual EPA Proposed Approach UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach

*excluding existing hydro

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UCS Approach Leads to More Renewables in Every Region

(renewable % of electricity sales in 2030)

16%

14% 31%

EPA Proposed Approach UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach

17% 27% 7% 14% 14% 20% 9% 24% 16% 24%

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UCS Approach Requires Only Small Fraction of Renewable Resources Available in Each Region

0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 2.2% 1.6%

Regional Targets from UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach in 2030 as % of RE Technical Potential

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2 4 6 8 10 12

Average Consumer Electricity Price (2013c/kWh)

ReEDS Business as Usual UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach maximum 0.3% increase in 2026

UCS Renewable Energy Targets are Affordable

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Average Power Sector Natural Gas Price (2013$/million BTU)

9% reduction by 2030

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Power Sector CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)

2005 Emissions EPA Modeling of CPP (30% below 2005 levels) Additional Reductions, UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach

More Renewables Deliver Greater Carbon Reductions

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Power Sector CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)

2005 Emissions EPA Modeling of CPP (30% below 2005 levels) Additonal Reductions, UCS Demonstrated Growth Approach NRC Carbon Budget

Deeper Cuts are Needed to Address Climate Change

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100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000

EPA Proposed Approach Renewables Generation (GWh)

Solar Thermal Solar PV Landfill Gas Biomass Geothermal Wind

UCS Approach Results in More Wind and Solar PV

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000

UCS Approach Renewables Generation (GWh)

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SLIDE 20

UCS 2030 Demonstrated Growth Approach Sensitivity Analysis

22.9% 20.3% 22.3% 21.9% 23.1% 23.3% 25.3%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% % of Electricity Sales

UCS Proposed Demonstrated RE Growth Approach No RES Constraint 1% Growth Rate for All States RE Generation Capped at 33% of Electricity Sales No Maximum Cap on State Growth Rate No Cap on RE Genereration No Cap on State Grow Rate or RE Generation

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Recommendations

EPA should expand the role of renewables in establishing

state emissions rate reduction targets

EPA should review and strengthen state emissions

reduction and renewables targets by 2025

States and the EPA should implement measures to

prevent double counting of renewables

States should prepare to develop and implement strong

compliance plans

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For More Information

Contact: Megan Rising mrising@ucsusa.org More Details and Link to Report: www.ucsusa.org/renewablesandcleanpowerplan Blogs:

http://blog.ucsusa.org/epa-clean-power-plan-we-must-do-better-we-can-do- better-683 http://blog.ucsusa.org/epa-clean-power-plan-underestimates-power-of- renewable-energy-to-reduce-carbon-emissions-682