The future of gravitational-wave astronomy Paul Lasky - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The future of gravitational-wave astronomy

Paul Lasky

1,000,000,000 years ago

Strain (10-21)

Hanford, Washington (H1) Livingston, Louisiana (L1)

H1 observed Numerical relativity Reconstructed (wavelet) Reconstructed (template) Numerical relativity L1 observed Reconstructed (wavelet) H1 observed (shifted, inverted) Reconstructed (template)

0.5 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

• 0.5
• 1.0

0.0

• 0.5
• 1.0

Time (s) Time (s) Normalized amplitude 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45

14th September 2015 - GW150914

Binary Black 
 Hole Merger

Abbott et al. (2016) - GW150914

Sky location unknown

600 400 200 90 180 distance [Mpc]

• rientation (deg)

primary mass [M☉] secondary mass [M☉] 30 40 50 25 35

fast forward — August 17, 2017

GW101512 GW150914 GW151226 GW170104 GW170814 GW170817

August 17, 2017

1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 Event rate (counts/s) Merger GRB start Lightcurve from Fermi/GBM (10 − 50 keV) 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 Event rate (counts/s) Lightcurve from Fermi/GBM (50 − 300 keV) 112500 115000 117500 120000 Event rate (counts/s) Lightcurve from INTEGRAL/SPI-ACS (> 100 keV) −10 −8 −6 −4 −2 2 4 6 Time from merger (s) 100 50 200 300 400 Frequency (Hz) Gravitational-wave time-frequency map

So loud you can see it by eye SNR = 32.4 (louder than GW150914)

11 hours later

credit: Coulter et al. (2017)

Swope - the first of many!

Abbott et al. (2017; GW170817)

inference from gravitational-wave data alone

mass1 [M]

1.5 2.0 2.5 0.7 1.0 1.3

mass2 [M]

1000 2000 3000 tidal deformability of primary tidal deformability of secondary 1000 2000 3000

gravitational-wave transient catalog(ue) - 1

Abbott et al. 2018

primary mass [M]

mass gap (?) cut-off from pulsational pair instability supernovae? Abbott et al. 2018 — Colm Talbot (Monash)

August 2017 January 2017

LIGO-Virgo Second Observing Run

LIGO-Virgo Third Observing Run April 1 —

credit: Abhirup Ghosh

All events are open! https://gracedb.ligo.org/latest/

GW190425

false-alarm rate: ~1 per 70,000 years parameter-estimation rota: Greg Ashton (Monash) distance ~ 156 ± 41 Mpc

All events are open! https://gracedb.ligo.org/latest/

GW190426

false-alarm rate: ~1 per 1.6 years distance ~ 377 ± 100 Mpc

• Bilby: parameter-estimation for the masses
• OzHF: An Australian high-frequency gravitational-wave

detector

“Bayesian parameter estimation is the future of gravitational-wave astronomy”

Matilda B. Bilby*

*not a real quote (also not a real Bilby)

The user-friendly Bayesian inference library

git.ligo.org/lscsoft/bilby/

A versatile parameter-estimation code being adopted for production science in next LIGO observing run

Ashton, Hübner, PL, Talbot + (2019)

git.ligo.org/lscsoft/bilby/

Our Aims:

• Lower the entry point for doing gravitational-

wave and astrophysics Bayesian calculations

• user friendly, intuitive syntax
• robust, yet adaptable code base
• open source
• well documented
• many examples

35 40 45 primary mass [M] 25 30 35 secondary mass [M] 1 2 3 inclination angle 200 400 600 luminosity distance [Mpc]

• pen gravitational-

wave data
 GW150914

Ashton, Hübner, PL, Talbot + (2019)

git.ligo.org/lscsoft/bilby/

git.ligo.org/lscsoft/bilby/

synthetic neutron star injections

Ashton, Hübner, PL, Talbot + (2019)

git.ligo.org/lscsoft/bilby/

gravitational-wave memory

Hübner, PL, Thrane, Talbot (in prep.)

• 0.3
• 0.2
• 0.1

0.1

• 1

1

with memory no memory

number of events 20 40 60 80 100 (ln Bayes Factor)tot 10 20 30 40

all hS/N"hi > 2

Ashton, PL, Graber, Palfreyman (Nature Astronomy; submitted)

The 2016-vela glitch

neutron star pulse-profile modelling

git.ligo.org/lscsoft/bilby/

do millisecond magnetars exist?

x-ray light curves of gamma-ray bursts

git.ligo.org/lscsoft/bilby/

PL, Leris, Rowlinson & Glampedakis (2017) Sarin, PL, Ashton (2019)

The user-friendly Bayesian inference library

git.ligo.org/lscsoft/bilby/

A versatile parameter-estimation code being adopted for production science in next LIGO observing run

Ashton, Hübner, PL, Talbot + (2019)

• Bilby: parameter-estimation for the masses
• OzHF: An Australian high-frequency gravitational-wave

detector

GW170817 - the first binary neutron star merger

tidal deformability, Λ1 tidal deformability, Λ2

what didn’t we learn?

• short gamma-ray bursts are neutron star mergers
• jet formation and topology
• r-process nucleosynthesis
• (there’s gold in them there hills…)
• cosmology…
• weak constraints on neutron star equation of state

GW170817 - the first binary neutron star merger what did we learn?

• How matter behaves at supra-nuclear densities!
• What happened after the merger?

Density Temperature

Introducing OzHF

• Scale: $50M - $100M
• (cf ~$1B for ET/CE)
• Build the detector around

the science case: neutron stars

• Design concept in progress
• Design paper on its way

aLIGO A+ OzHF cosmic explorer

Introducing OzHF

OzHF: a matter machine

Tidal effects All equation of state information comes from very late in the inspiral

OzHF: a matter machine

Want to learn about quantum chromodynamics? Do it here!

OzHF: a matter machine

post-merger

OzHF: a matter machine

5 ??

OzHF fiducial baseline

• 2km arms
• 20kg silicon test masses
• cooling: 123K
• 2 micron wavelength
• 500 W input power
• 5 MW in arms
• 10 dB squeezing
• Neglect low-frequency isolation

preliminary design

sensitivity comparison

• Binary Black Holes
• Binary Neutron Stars
• Supernovae ?
• Isolated Neutron Stars ?
• Cosmology
• Exotic ?

Science Case

• $50M - $100M
• Scalable Infrastructure
• Location?

Project Scale 14 Paul Lasky

Australian HF Detector

Temperature density

1015

OzHF is here!

The future of gravitational-wave astronomy

Paul Lasky