The Earthquake can be Predicted using Satellite Thermal Infrared - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Earthquake can be Predicted using Satellite Thermal Infrared - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Earthquake can be Predicted using Satellite Thermal Infrared Images ZuJi Qiang, Institute of Geology ,China Earthquake Administration Chinese have carefully recorded earthquake data for the past several thousand years. In 782 B.C.

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The Earthquake can be Predicted using Satellite Thermal Infrared Images

ZuJi Qiang, Institute of Geology ,China Earthquake Administration

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Chinese have carefully recorded earthquake data for the past several thousand years.

  • In 782 B.C. (The Chou Dynasty while King

You ruled China), "There was severe drought, then big earthquake: rivers were cut off, mountains were shaken.“

  • Historical earthquake data has shown that

pre-earthquake temperature increase

  • ccurred before about one third of the

earthquakes recorded by ancient Chinese.

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  • Russians, Dr。V 。Gorny.，A。Salman..

etc., were among the first to discover the isolated pre-earthquake thermal- infrared temperature increase anomaly using satellite technology in 1988.

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（After DU Letian

，

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After Du Letian

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Agenda

  • Three Hypotheses of the Precursor of

the Satellite Thermal Infrared Anomalies

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(1)”Red Swelling” Hypotheses, by Academician Fu Chengyi,1971

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1,The records of Guanting Reservoir Seismological Station, Beijing, are usually interfered by the high-frequency pulses produced by trains passing nearby bridge. But during the periods of Baotou earthquake of November 1970 and Changshan Islands earthquake of January 1971 with 5-6 magnitude, such interference disappeared. This phenomena proves that before a middle strong earthquake, the affected area of the upper crust may stretch at least several hundred kilometers. 2,Before a lager earthquake ,the occurrences of small earthquakes in a relatively wide area decreased dramatically ,and transient pacific period appears. 3,Some earthquake precursors such as ground water anomaly ground tilt, crust strain, geoelectric resistivity, and anomalous animal behaviour sometimes may appear in places far from epicenter. If an earthquake was caused only by fracture of rocks ,such phenomena would occur magnificently only around the area near the epicenter. 4,Gravity of the moon and sun triggers an earthquakes sometimes. While the gravitational force is a kind of body force. It affects on rocks at both sides of a fault nearly equally. If earthquakes originated only From a small area near a fault, it is hard imagine that the gravitational force could trigger an earthquake. Only when this force affects a very large volume

  • f the crust, could the gravitation force produce enough distortion .
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(2),The Gas-thermal Hypotheses by Zuji Qiang

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  • Gas-Thermal Hypothesis

Rocks under stress terrestrial degassing emission of CH4,CO2 and charged particles solar radiation, electric field excitation thermal infrared temperature increase.

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  • Experimental results
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Natural Radioactivity, Earthquakes and the Ionosphere by Sergey Alexander Pulinets, University

  • f Mexico.
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(3),The Positive Hole Carrier Hypotheses By F. Freund

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The Birth of a New Method on Earthquake prediction

  • The anomalous temperature increase

before an earthquake has been recorded in China long ago.Outgassing

  • f the earth before earthquake was

recorded A.C.2000a in China at Zhou Yi.

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Practice is the only criteria to examine a truth.

  • I am confident that precursors can be

found before an earthquake and that earthquake prediction IS possible.

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Best Practice The Several Examples:

QiQi EarthquakeM7.6 Lijiang EarthquakeM7.0 Gonghe EarthquakeM7.0 Tainan EarthquakeM6.0 Hualian EarthquakeM6.8 Changshou EarthquakeM5.1 JiashiEarthquakeM6.6 Tangshan EarthquakeM4.7 ShaheEarthquakeM4.0

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Earthquake precursors should enable a predicator to give the three elements of a future earthquake: (place, magnitude and time) ( Max Wyss, 1993, former chairperson of Earthquake Prediction Committee, IASPEI .

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Qi Qi great earthquake M7.6 M7.1,Taiwan

  • Sept.21,1999,23.7°N,121.1°E
  • Predicted time:Sept.12-Oct.2,1999
  • Area:24-25°N,121-122°E
  • Magnitude:6.5±
  • NO.73
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QZJ: QZJ: QZJ: QiQi Earthquake QZJ: QiQi Earthquake

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QZJ:QiQi Strong EartquakeM7.6 QiQi Taiwan Predicted Card QZJ:QiQi Strong EartquakeM7.6 QiQi Taiwan Predicted Card

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No.74

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Certificate of Predication Accuracy issued by Beijing Municipal Bureau of Earthquake, which affirmed that my predictions of Taiwan QiQi Big Earthquake and subsequent aftershocks were correct.

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Certificate of Predication Accuracy issued by Beijing Municipal Bureau of Earthquake, which affirmed that my predictions of Taiwan QiQi Big Earthquake and subsequent aftershocks were correct.

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Lijiang EarthquakeM7.0

  • February 3,1996 27.2°N,100.3°E
  • Predicted time:Dec.16,1995-Jan.25 ,1996
  • Area:25-27°N,101-103°E
  • Magnitude:6.5-6.9
  • No.32
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Start temperature 260°K

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52days before

Start temperature260°K

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QZJ: 震中差120Km, 时间提前9天 QZJ: 震中差120Km, 时间提前9天

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Gonghe Earthquake M7.0 Ganshu Province

  • April 26,1990 36.1°N,100.3°E
  • Predicted time April 17-25,10days before
  • Magnitude:6.5-7.5
  • Area:36-38°N,99-101°E
  • No.2
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Earthquake predicted Card

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Tainan Earthquake M6.0 Taiwan

  • March 12，1991 23°N,120.3°E
  • Predicted time March 7-17,6days before
  • Area:22-23°N,120-121°E
  • Magnitude:5-6
  • No.7
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EQ Predicted Card

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Certificate Of Prediction Accu- racy issued by vice director

  • f

department of Earthquake Prediction, CEA

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Certificate Of Prediction Accu racy issued by vice director of department of Earthquake Prediction, CEA

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Hualiang Earthquake M6.8 Taiwan

  • April 20,1992 23.8°N,121.7°E
  • Predicted time April 17-27,4days before
  • Area:23-24°N,121-122.5E
  • Magnitude:6.0-6.5
  • No.14
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EQ Predicted Card

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Datong EarthquakeM5.7,6.1

  • Oct.18,19;1989 39.9°N,113°E
  • Oct.23;1989 Strong aftershock M5.2
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Strong after shock M5.2

Oct.23;1989 Predicted time Oct.21 1989

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Certificate Of Prediction Accu racy issued by vice director of department of Earthquake Prediction, CEA

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Certificate Of Prediction Accu racy issued by vice director of department of Earthquake Prediction, CEA

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Dongsha EarthquakeM5.9 China Southern Sea

  • Sept.14,1992; 21.6°N,117.8°E
  • Predicted time:Aug.19-Sept.9,1992
  • Magnitude:6.0
  • Area:21-22°N,117-119°E
  • No.17
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Changshou Earthquake M5.1

  • Feb.10,1990 31.6°N,121°E
  • Predicted time:Feb.6-Feb.21,1990
  • Magnitude:5-6
  • Area:31-32°N,120-121°E
  • No.1
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Earthquake Predicted Card Time：Feb.6-Feb.21，1990 Area：31-32°N，120- 121°E Magnitude：5-6

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Shahe Earthquake M4.0

  • Sept。22，1990 Northern part of Beijing
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11days before

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Certificate of Prediction Accuracy Issued by Institute of Geology, CEA

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Shahe Earthquake M4.0

  • Predicted time:Sept.14-Sept.25,1990
  • Area: Northern Suburbs of Beijing
  • Magnitude:4±
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Jiashi Earthquake M6.6

  • August 27,1998; 39.9°N,77.9°E
  • Predicted time: August 14-Sept.5
  • Magnitude:6.0
  • Location:39-40°N,77-78°E
  • No.59
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Aug.11,1998 16 days before

Start temperature 268

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Slide 99 zz2

qzj, 6/9/2007

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qzj, 6/9/2007

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Tanshang Earthquake M4.7

  • April 14,1998 39.7°N,118.3°E
  • Predicted time March 30,16 days

before

  • Magnitude:5.0
  • Location:39-40°N,118-119°E
  • No.49
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Start temperature 269°K 26days before

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Hachijojima Isl.Earthquake M6.1Japan

  • Sept.1,1993 31.5°N,142.2°E
  • Predicted time: Aug.12-Sept.5,1993
  • Location:32-34°N,140-142°E
  • Magnitude:6.0-6.5
  • No.20
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Izu Peninsula，swarm earthquake M5.2、5.7,Japan

  • March 3、4--April 10,1997,35.5°N,130.04°E
  • Predicted time:Feb.26-March 10,1997
  • Area：35-36°N，139-140°E
  • Magnitude：6.0
  • No。38
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9days before Start temperature 268°K

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Certificate of prediction Accuracy issued by Beijing Youth Daily July 21,1997

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Kamchatka Isl.M7.4,Russia

  • July 16,1996 58.1°N,160.05E,
  • Predicted time: July 14-Aug.5 ,1996
  • Area：57-59°N，159-161°E
  • Magnitude：7.0
  • No。33
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Earthquake Predicted Card

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Certificate of prediction Accuracy Issued by Director Zhengjian Guo

  • f the Special Committee

for Prediction Nature Disaster in the Geophysical Union of China

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Samal Swarm Earthquake M7.0,7.2,7.5,7.2,7.0,7.1 Philippine

  • April 21,23,,May 5,1995
  • Predicted time:Apr.16-May5,1995
  • Area：Samal Isl。Philippine，11-13°N，126-

127°E

  • Magnitude：7.0
  • No。29
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QZJ: Samar strong swarm earthquakes Philippine M7.0,7.2,7.5,7. 2,7.0,7.1 9 days before QZJ: Samar strong swarm earthquakes Philippine M7.0,7.2,7.5,7. 2,7.0,7.1 9 days before

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Pacific ocean Pacific ocean Pacific ocean China South Sea

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The diagram of load-unload character of quartzite under alternating tidal stress in the earth (After Wen,1983)

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Certificate of Prediction Accuracy issued by Institute of Geology, CEA

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Certificate of Prediction Accuracy issued by Institute of Geology, CEA

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The Chinese scientists in the satellite thermal-infrared earthquake-prediction group led by QIANG Zuji and DIAN Changgong have carried on practicing short and impediment earthquake prediction for a long time. Our prediction practices started in 1990 and over the years we have made steady and great progress. During the 11 years from 1990 to 2000, we have made 149 predictions, of which 100 were valid and 49 were false

  • alarms. Out of the 100 valid predictions, 65 were

predicated with very good accuracy on the earthquakes

  • ccurred in mainland China and its neighboring sea and

peninsula, including 10 earthquakes of Richter scale 7

  • r above, 19 of Richter scale 6 or above, and 36 of

Richter scale 5 or so; 25 predictions were relatively accurate, including 4 of Richter scale 7; and 10 predictions were less accurate.

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Because of the cloud interference, 49 predictions were false alarms and predictions were not made for 20 earthquakes (QIANG Zuji etal., 1998, 2001). WANG Chunying, a master graduate student of the Department of Geography at National Taiwan University, has based here thesis on our prediction practices (2005), and affirmed and gave a high appraisal to our prediction practices of more than 10 years. Based on the data of prediction cards issued for earthquakes of Richter scale 5 or above during the years 1990 to 2000, which she obtained from LI lingzhi, another collaborate researcher of our research, Ms. Wang summarized and evaluated our prediction practices in the following table. ( Table II-1-1).

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My success rate of earthquake prediction using thermal-infrared remote-sensing technology was not as good as it is now. I have had more false predictions than successful ones in the

  • beginning. however, I have learned from my

failures and kept practicing and improving this earthquake prediction technique. I believe wisdom comes from the practices.

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I am confident that precursors can be found before an earthquake and that earthquake prediction IS possible.

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Earthquake precursors should enable a predicator to give the three elements of a future earthquake: place, magnitude and time。 ( Max Wyss, 1993, former chairperson of Earthquake Prediction Committee, IASPEI ）.

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Thank You!